AIs are some opportunistic A holes...I was just in a spot where no one could touch me...and instead of declaring war on Arabia when they attacked a city state I was suizerain of, I lined up all my troops in a blockade....
So of course, as soon as Peter snakes my suizerain status and scatters my troops, Arabia surprise attacks me...and then Russia a few turns later....after all the times in most games where I'M the warmonger for initiating a surprise attack...