Zardnaar
Deity
Just to be clear I am not an American but from the outsider looking in the Republicans are in deep trouble. I think Trump is partly right in terms of the mainstream media being out to get him (but he makes it so easy), but he is wrong in terms of them making stuff up.
If you like Fox News that is fair enough, I read the website myself occasionally. More to get a sense of what they're saying but here is a hint its - entertainment trash. If you want some better news and don't trust mainstream USA media try Reuters or the BBC. Even if you don't like what you read you need to find out what people are saying or whats going on.
Anyway short of the Democrats shooting themselves in the foot with a circular firing squad perhaps by nominating Hilary again (or Elizabeth Warrens perhaps) the 2020 elections are theirs to lose. Trump won 2016 by a very narrow victory if 40 000 people in 3 states changed their minds he would have lost. Based on the 2018 mid terms more than that have changed their minds.
Trump is the guy who turned a 20 odd point lead in Texas to 3 points. They elected a Democratic senator in Alabama of all places. The 2018 senate map was bad for the Democrats as they were defending in lots of red states that are quite red. This was part of the 6 year cycle that Obama carried in 2012. In 2020 the situation is reversed with the Republicans on the defensive with a blue tide from 2018. The main advantage they have is they are defending red states but a few are purple or are well within the margin of losses of the 2018 mid terms.
This is also compounded by Americans skewing left on virtually all of the main topics but the red states use social issues to drive turnout. But overall America is getting more liberal with Texas being tipped to go blue or purple in 2032. Trump seems to have brought that forward by a decade or so. I don't think Texas will flip blue in 2020 but what about states like Ohio and Florida let alone the other mid western states Trump would have seemed to have lost already. If he is driving voters into the arms of the Democrats in 2020 odds are they will win again in 2024 (its really hard to beat a sitting president). By 2028 it won't matter to much.
Even with gerrymandering that in effect gains the Republicans about a 7 point advantage that makes it hard to beat in swing states. However once again a lot of those stats showed gains equal to or larger than that in the 2018 mid terms. If the Democrats carry some of them in 2020 long term Gerrymandering will likely hurt the Republicans as it will make winning them back that much harder when combined with more liberal trends overall in the US electorate. When millennial start hitting their 30's and 40's in numbers they don't seem to be voting Republican combined with normal population die off. Basically older conservative voters die off and are not replaced. Note that President Reagan and other Republican candidates used to win the popular vote as well, its just been since Bush II that they have struggled (except 2004?). Also note the popular vote doesn't matter that much but it does reveal longer term trends in the US electorate.
By any objective means Trump is not a good president. He is a dead duck and cannot pass any of his legislative agenda (such as it was) so even if you are a Republican/like him just thought I would point that out. I would do further and use words like "disaster" and "calamity". Not for America but for the GoP. Last time you had a president this bad (Hoover) the Democrats basically got a pass for the next 20 years. In reverse after the 60's the Democrats were effectively locked out of executive power for 20+ years.
So yeah at this point I think the Democrats have already won 2020 and they ave a decent chance of getting the senate and can lock this in for potentially decades to come. If you have a large democratic field that is in indicator that a lot of them think they can beat Trump in 2020. However the 2018 elections revealed that despite all the noise the progressive wing of the Democrats party makes they failed hard and the ones that won are the more blue dog types. Nominating a progressive fruitcake might let the GoP win in 2020 as getting more votes in the west and east coast won't win you the election they need it in the Mid West/Ohio, Florida, and potentially Texas and some other red states that are starting to trend purple.
If you like Fox News that is fair enough, I read the website myself occasionally. More to get a sense of what they're saying but here is a hint its - entertainment trash. If you want some better news and don't trust mainstream USA media try Reuters or the BBC. Even if you don't like what you read you need to find out what people are saying or whats going on.
Anyway short of the Democrats shooting themselves in the foot with a circular firing squad perhaps by nominating Hilary again (or Elizabeth Warrens perhaps) the 2020 elections are theirs to lose. Trump won 2016 by a very narrow victory if 40 000 people in 3 states changed their minds he would have lost. Based on the 2018 mid terms more than that have changed their minds.
Trump is the guy who turned a 20 odd point lead in Texas to 3 points. They elected a Democratic senator in Alabama of all places. The 2018 senate map was bad for the Democrats as they were defending in lots of red states that are quite red. This was part of the 6 year cycle that Obama carried in 2012. In 2020 the situation is reversed with the Republicans on the defensive with a blue tide from 2018. The main advantage they have is they are defending red states but a few are purple or are well within the margin of losses of the 2018 mid terms.
This is also compounded by Americans skewing left on virtually all of the main topics but the red states use social issues to drive turnout. But overall America is getting more liberal with Texas being tipped to go blue or purple in 2032. Trump seems to have brought that forward by a decade or so. I don't think Texas will flip blue in 2020 but what about states like Ohio and Florida let alone the other mid western states Trump would have seemed to have lost already. If he is driving voters into the arms of the Democrats in 2020 odds are they will win again in 2024 (its really hard to beat a sitting president). By 2028 it won't matter to much.
Even with gerrymandering that in effect gains the Republicans about a 7 point advantage that makes it hard to beat in swing states. However once again a lot of those stats showed gains equal to or larger than that in the 2018 mid terms. If the Democrats carry some of them in 2020 long term Gerrymandering will likely hurt the Republicans as it will make winning them back that much harder when combined with more liberal trends overall in the US electorate. When millennial start hitting their 30's and 40's in numbers they don't seem to be voting Republican combined with normal population die off. Basically older conservative voters die off and are not replaced. Note that President Reagan and other Republican candidates used to win the popular vote as well, its just been since Bush II that they have struggled (except 2004?). Also note the popular vote doesn't matter that much but it does reveal longer term trends in the US electorate.
By any objective means Trump is not a good president. He is a dead duck and cannot pass any of his legislative agenda (such as it was) so even if you are a Republican/like him just thought I would point that out. I would do further and use words like "disaster" and "calamity". Not for America but for the GoP. Last time you had a president this bad (Hoover) the Democrats basically got a pass for the next 20 years. In reverse after the 60's the Democrats were effectively locked out of executive power for 20+ years.
So yeah at this point I think the Democrats have already won 2020 and they ave a decent chance of getting the senate and can lock this in for potentially decades to come. If you have a large democratic field that is in indicator that a lot of them think they can beat Trump in 2020. However the 2018 elections revealed that despite all the noise the progressive wing of the Democrats party makes they failed hard and the ones that won are the more blue dog types. Nominating a progressive fruitcake might let the GoP win in 2020 as getting more votes in the west and east coast won't win you the election they need it in the Mid West/Ohio, Florida, and potentially Texas and some other red states that are starting to trend purple.
