Why Proportional Representation Won't Fix the USA

Zardnaar

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Here in New Zealand we have proportional representation. Put simply the popular vote determines the make up of parliment. If you get 51% of the vote. We still have the two big parties, and since 1996 when we introduced MMP neither party has passed 50%. This means coalitions are the norm.

Anyway liberals in America think that if they had proportional representation you could have everything they want. Up to a point this is kind of true. Hilary would have won and 2016. But and there's always a but what happens is the following.

1. The main parties fragment.
2. Things get dragged towards the centre.

Broadly speaking you have enough room for a far right and left party, a centre right/left and maybe one in the centre.

Here the minor parties come an go, the greens are reasonably long lasting standing independently since 1999.

Fragments occurred when various fragments broke off. Labour spawned two break away parties, New Labour and ACT(neo liberal free market right wing) while National spawned one NZ First. . They also both spawned a center party United Future.

New Labour formed the Alliance with 4 or 5 minor parties outside government (from memory Greens,Democrats New Labour, and a Maori party)

So in 1996 after elections we had the two big parties, United, ACT, NZ First and the Alliance in power. The alliance fragmented again into two parties the Greens and another one. and United Future was eventually reduced to an electorate MP.

Most of the small parties were lead by big men with electorate s who left the established parties. They got old and left parliament over the years with one left. The Greens went with dual leadership and focused more on party votes. ACT is down to an electorate MP so we now have 4 parties two left wing one right wing and one centre part very slightly to the right but they coalitioned withe the left wing parties (Greens+Labour).

Elections are mostly decided by who can bribe the middle class or smaller parties.

In American terms each big party would have 3 or 4 potential smaller parties. Each would be based on the main factions of each party. Any somewhat charismatic person in the party with an axe to grind and a seat would be a potential break away.

For the Democrats an obvious one would be Bernie plus AOC and her friends for a progressive wing while the Democrats would be left of center. On the right the GoP could fragment along the conservative caucus, moderates and governor's governor's like Kasich. Assuming a pre or post Trump world.

It's also not impossible a few would leave both parties which means never one can govern alone. The Republicans are more United than the Democrats but electoral defeat would probably blow that up.

Either way if you trend to far left or right usually over 3 terms you get binned out. On the plus side you don't get Hardline left or right parties and it seems to keep populism in check as parties can't really get hijacked by those in safe seats.
 
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I think you might be conflating two separate issues that are "hot topics" in US politics. We have proportional representation in one chamber of Congress, the House of Representatives. You might be thinking of the debates about redistricting (aka "Gerrymandering"), which determines the geographical areas that are then given a representative in the House. Or you might be thinking about the debate we're having about the role the Electoral College plays in Presidential elections, which isn't about proportional representation - or at least, not exactly. You might also be tripping over the differences between our President and the Prime Minister in countries that have a Parliament. Our Executive Branch - which the President is the head of - is separate from our Legislative Branch, the equivalent of a Parliament. Our legislature, specifically the House of Representatives, is the closest thing to our Parliament, and the position in the US government that is most analogous to Prime Minister is our Speaker of the House.


p.s. As to whether addressing either of these issues would "fix" the United States... well, that's part of the debate, I guess. :lol:
 
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In the two party system in the US, you have to build your various minority group coalitions before the elections and not after. If you can't bring those groups into your tent before the election, they tend not to vote and you cannot reach 51%.
 
We have proportional representation in one chamber of Congress, the House of Representatives.

No we don't. The House is comprised of single-member, first-past-the-post districts. It is not proportional representation. Proportional representation means that people participate in a national vote in which they vote for a party, and then seats are assigned in the national legislature (to people selected internally by the parties) based on the percentages of the votes received by each party.
 
No we don't. The House is comprised of single-member, first-past-the-post districts. It is not proportional representation. Proportional representation means that people participate in a national vote in which they vote for a party, and then seats are assigned in the national legislature (to people selected internally by the parties) based on the percentages of the votes received by each party.
Fair enough. I was trying to draw analogies that would make our system more recognizable to those familiar with parliamentary system, but analogies can be misleading in their own way. So, right, we don't really have proportional representation in the way that parliamentary systems do, our Legislature is not really a Parliament and our Speaker of the House is not really a Prime Minister.
 
The USA house is basically first past the post.

They changed it here after a party got 20% of the vote but only 2 seats.

That and both parties took a hammering with memberships back when paid dues mattered.

Proportional means that s Republican in California vote will matter, ditto for a Democrat in Texas or other red state.

GoP would have to change. They wouldn't have won an election since 1988. Bush won popular vote 2004 iirc but had advantage of sitting president.

But Clinton may not have won in 1992 either if Perot had a party and sided with Bush.
 
In the two party system in the US, you have to build your various minority group coalitions before the elections and not after. If you can't bring those groups into your tent before the election, they tend not to vote and you cannot reach 51%.
There was an episode of the Freakonomics podcast that looked at the US two-party system as an industry duopoly, where the industry is politics. Among other things, they said that the two parties have drifted towards appealing to their respective wings and ignored the middle. I'm not sure I agree, I think the Republicans have drifted (or sprinted) towards the right-wing fringe and the Democrats have tried to be the centrist party. I was thinking about the white paper the Republicans commissioned after John McCain's 2008 loss, which I think basically said "Bring in Latinos. Win." ...and the Republicans have since done everything in their power to alienate Latinos.

It may be that the two used to build a coalition before the election, but today it feels more like they demand loyalty. The Freakonomics podcast noted how people in both parties try to marginalize third parties and cast people who vote for them as apostates. In the last 20 years, I've had numerous arguments with my liberal friends about voters for people like Ralph Nader and Jill Stein "taking votes" from the Democratic candidate.
 
Even here Jill Stein would have 0 seats in parliament. The threshold is 5%.
 
You'd probably just end up with a grand coalition between centrist Democrats and "Reasonable Republicans" under President Joe Biden and VP John-McCain's-Brain-in-a-Jar.
 
I was thinking about the white paper the Republicans commissioned after John McCain's 2008 loss, which I think basically said "Bring in Latinos. Win." ...and the Republicans have since done everything in their power to alienate Latinos.

I believe that white paper was promulgated after Romney's loss in 2012, not McCain's. I think they put McCain's loss down to Bush being so unpopular, but a lot of them convinced themselves Romney was gonna win so his loss provoked some soul-searching.

The "two-party system" is often discussed as if the parties themselves create a monopoly, and there are some actions taken by the parties that would seem to support this, but the reality is that a FPTP system requiring a majority of votes to win means there will be a two-party system, as two parties makes for the largest possible coalitions.
 
That's a possibility. We haven't had a grand coalition here yet. Maybe in some sort of national emergency like WW2 but even then the opposition would probably just support the budget and current government on supply and demand.
 
America has both a Parliament and a King. As gridlock would seize Parliament, the King would take on more power
 
Even here Jill Stein would have 0 seats in parliament. The threshold is 5%.

You are discounting the discouragement factor of a FPTP system, against smaller parties. Knowing that only one person gets elected makes people vote for the bigger parties even when they might have preferred to vote for another if they had proportional representation.
 
Nothing you said was a downside or foreign concept already to the things in practice, ...so...?
 
Fair enough. I was trying to draw analogies that would make our system more recognizable to those familiar with parliamentary system, but analogies can be misleading in their own way. So, right, we don't really have proportional representation in the way that parliamentary systems do, our Legislature is not really a Parliament and our Speaker of the House is not really a Prime Minister.

Parliamentary systems aren't necessarily proportional. Proportional voting can be in presidential or parliamentary systems, the opposite of proportional representation is pretty much single member districts.

The UK and Canada have the exact same vote ystem as the US in their three respective lower houses. Single member districts, simple plurality (tick one box). Some Caribbean nations have this too.

Australia also has single member districts, but with a preference/runoff system, and our Senate is proportional by state (typically a 14% quota for a seat).

Many continental European countries have proportional systems, where the same electorate elects multiple members by vote share. That can be pure list vote, or STV, and the basic feature is provinces (eg Spain) or electorates (eg Ireland) or the whole country as one bloc (eg Israel) get seats by vote share.

It can also be German or NZ style mixed member where a district vote is balanced list vote to make the chamber as a whole reflective of vote shares.
 
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You'd probably just end up with a grand coalition between centrist Democrats and "Reasonable Republicans" under President Joe Biden and VP John-McCain's-Brain-in-a-Jar.
iirc, way back in US history there was a time when the VP was simply the losing candidate in the Presidential election.

From Smithsonian Magazine:
When did the position of vice president of the United States stop going to the runner-up in the presidential election and become a separately elected office? - Amelia Golini, Brooklyn, New York

That was in 1804, when the 12th Amendment to the Constitution was ratified, says David Ward, senior historian at the National Portrait Gallery.

The amendment was proposed after the 1796 election resulted in a president (John Adams) and vice president (Thomas Jefferson) from opposing parties, and the 1800 election led to a tie between Jefferson and Aaron Burr. They were members of the same party (Democratic-Republican), but it took the House of Representatives 36 contentious ballots to break the tie, electing Jefferson president and Burr vice president. In 1804, Jefferson was re-elected and George Clinton became the first vice president under the 12th Amendment.

Spoiler :

Incidentally, I've been hearing more about a "ranked voting" election system. I think there's a state that tried it. Vermont, maybe? I've no idea how it turned out, or what it would mean for the issues raised in this thread. I could Google it, but I'm having more fun looking at pictures of George Clinton.
 
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