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Will A.I. reach human intelligence?

Discussion in 'Science & Technology' started by Narz, Apr 24, 2010.

?

Will A.I. reach/surpass human intelligence?

  1. Yes, within 25 years.

    15.6%
  2. Yes, within 100 years.

    26.7%
  3. Yes, but not for a long, long time.

    24.4%
  4. Probably not.

    11.1%
  5. No.

    15.6%
  6. Not sure.

    6.7%
  1. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    Just thought I'd make a poll. I don't think there is one yet (at least not in this subforum).
     
  2. Agent327

    Agent327 Observer

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    Just one remark: AI already is human intelligence. That's why its called artificial intelligence, as by itself it has none.
     
  3. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    I don't agree/follow Jeelen. As long as it's plugged in it has whatever intelligence it's programmed to.
     
  4. peter grimes

    peter grimes ... Moderator

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    It's a tough thing, the way the question is structured:
    Will AI pass a Turing Test?
    Will AI functionally simulate the human brain, including inputs and outputs? [this is not the same as passing the Turing Test!]
    Will AI achieve a level of sophistication such that it would be difficult to NOT attribute it a level of intelligence?

    Obviously this whole discussion pivots on the nature of intelligence...

    My own view is that within 25 years AI will be at such a level of sophistication that it will be tantamount to human intelligence, but not of the same quality.
     
  5. Darth_Pugwash

    Darth_Pugwash wobble wobble

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    In my view it's really just a question of engineering. I don't about time-scales but around a century doesn't seem like too bad a guess, but guessing this kind of thing is a crapshoot even for those who have some idea of what they're talking about.
     
  6. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    I left it open to interpretation but I like definition three.

    Can you be more specific as to what you mean by "not of the same quality"?
     
  7. peter grimes

    peter grimes ... Moderator

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    Well, our brains are wet and sloppy, and computers today don't handle sloppy computation at all well. If a quantum computer becomes viable in the next 25 years, then I think that's where we're most likely to see something we'd be compelled to call 'intelligence'.

    For some reason, brute force computation doesn't feel like intelligence to us (or to me, at least). It's due to a certain type of chauvinism, or bias. That whole 'if it's not like me it's not good enough'. The history of the idea of intelligence is riddled with bias like this. Not too long ago it was thought that people who weren't of European ancestry, and who didn't have a Y chromosome, didn't have the same amount of intelligence as people who were, and did. So in a way, our iPhones and stuff are already smart, we just don't notice it because we don't think of it that way.

    I guess if I were to take an conservative position, I'd say that within 5 years I'd expect to see consumer devices that exhibit such a sophisticated level of intention-prediction that we'll inadvertently call the device 'smart', but really mean it. Think of the touch-screens we have now. They guess what action it is that we intend based on the contextual environment. Reading a webpage, a stray finger swipe leads the machine to think that we want to scroll. A second finger in contact with the screen indicates that we wish to zoom in on the area, but keeping one corner anchored. This is only going to get more and more sophisticated; I have no doubt that they'll put pupil trackers into the cameras to add a whole other level of complexity. In order to coordinate all these inputs, the software that's managing the interface has to increase in sophistication as well... pretty soon, there will be no point in saying that the devices aren't smart. They'll be doing the same sorts of things we do all the time in a conversation: what's going on behind that guy's eyes? What's he thinking? What does he want? What does he expect of me? The only difference is that the device's software is circumscribed by the output in ways a conversational human isn't.
     
  8. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    Predicting human behavior in a specific environment alone isn't enough to be deemed "smart", IMO.
     
  9. uppi

    uppi Chieftain

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    I don't think duplicating human intelligence with a conventional computer is possible. But we don't know enough about the human mind to be able to tell if, when and how this might be possible.
     
  10. Disgustipated

    Disgustipated Chieftain

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    I believe someday we can replicate the number of neurons in a human brain by way of circuits, but it really won't equate to human intelligence. I still feel it will be limited by how it's programmed to act. I feel it will lack "motivation" to be intelligent on its own. As it has no instinct for survival, reproduction, etc. Unless we can somehow program a survival instinct into it...
     
  11. peter grimes

    peter grimes ... Moderator

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    Well then, what else is required?
     
  12. Brownsfan02

    Brownsfan02 WWII Buff

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    a computer dosen't have what humans have, and that is reason.
     
  13. Darth_Pugwash

    Darth_Pugwash wobble wobble

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    An AI needn't necessarily be a computer, it could be a highly developed organic brain.
     
  14. Narz

    Narz keeping it real

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    Not sure. Probably the ability to create on it's own (rather than just in response to human input).
     
  15. North King

    North King blech

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    Almost certainly, but not for a loooooooooong time. Personally I think they should focus more on linking neurons to computers in some fashion so the different kinds of intelligence can enhance one another, which seems a great deal more efficient than trying to reinvent the human brain.
     
  16. azzaman333

    azzaman333 meh

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    Nyeah.
     
  17. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I voted no. The human mind is a lot more complicated than people think.
    Will it be possible for an AI to appear to be conscious? Yes, depending on the definition of such an appearence.
    However it will definately not have the immense depth of the human mental world.
     
  18. Mise

    Mise isle of lucy

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    It can already do maths faster than we can. They could probably beat us at most IQ tests already :p

    Taking "intelligence" to mean something like reasoning or creativity, I think computers can be programmed with the ability to refine their own programming; once that happens in a structured way, I think actual creativity will emerge.

    EDIT: Other random thoughts: Google's search algorithm already has a pretty good idea of what I mean when I search for "apple reviews" (I tend not to be looking for a fruit connoisseurs). It's not a far stretch to imagine in the near future a computer that understands what I mean when I say things conversationally.
     
  19. warpus

    warpus In pork I trust

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    Eh.. no.

    Human intelligence differs from the "AI" you're used to (in video games, etc.) in that a human brain uses a giant neural net as the base of its intelligence.

    "AI" in games (I put it in quotes, cause it isn't true AI) uses search trees, simple if algorithms, etc. to appear intelligent. The two are nothing alike.

    AI will eventually reach human intelligence, but we are still far far away from that happening.. seeing as how most "AI" in use in everyday technologies doesn't even TRY to be true AI.. Once our devices start using neural nets, you can start asking the question of when they will be as smart as us. As it stands now, they are glorified if statements.
     
  20. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    FWIW, Windows includes natural language search since Vista.
     

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