With majority support, Clinton passes major milestone

[JohnRM]

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Why is the latest ABC News-Washington Post poll released Wednesday different from all other polls? Because it shows Sen. Hillary Clinton passing a significant political milestone.

For the first time, a majority of Democrats nationwide supports Clinton for their party's nomination. Clinton's support in the Washington Post-ABC News poll jumped 12 points from last month, to 53 percent. She's 33 points ahead of her closest competitor, Sen. Barack Obama.

That establishes Clinton as the clear national front-runner. Being front-runner means being a target of criticism from other Democrats.

"I heard Sen. Clinton say on Sunday that she wants to continue combat missions in Iraq. To me that's a continuation of the war," her Democratic presidential rival John Edwards said about her views on Iraq in a debate last month.

Obama attacked her attempt to reform the health care system during her husband's administration. "Part of the reason it was lonely, Hillary, was because you closed the door to a lot of potential allies in that process,'' Obama said.

But does it mean she's likely to get the nomination?
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Well, yes, if you look at the record. Which CNN did going back to the 1980 election. Every candidate who has gotten majority support in polls taken the year before the election has gone on to win the nomination.

Al Gore and George Bush both reached 50 percent in their parties in 1999. So did Bob Dole in 1995, George H.W. Bush in 1991 and 1987, and Walter Mondale in 1983.

One partial exception: In 1979, a majority of Democrats supported Ted Kennedy for the 1980 nomination -- until the Iran hostage crisis in November. Then most Democrats switched to Jimmy Carter, who went on to get the Democratic nomination.

What's behind the Clinton surge? Fifty-seven percent of Democrats think she's the candidate with the best chance to win the White House. That number went up 14 points in September. She also leads as the candidate who best reflects the Democratic Party's values.

What's happening in the Republican race? Rudy Giuliani's lead is growing. It's now 34 percent. Fred Thompson jumped into second place when he got in the race last month, but he seems to have stalled (17 percent).

What's behind Giuliani's gains? Same as Clinton -- electability. Republicans pick Giuliani as having the best chance to win in November.

But does Giuliani best reflect his party's values? Twenty-three percent of Republicans say he does. Twenty-six percent say Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, does. Twenty-one percent pick Thompson.

Giuliani looks like a winner to Republicans. But many Republicans are not sure he's one of them. That's not a problem most Democrats have with Hillary Clinton.
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The ABC News-Post poll is a national poll. National polls mean more than they used to. That's because of the frontloaded campaign calendar. The country is moving closer and closer to a national primary.

The ABC News-Post polls, conducted September 27-30, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points and involved telephone interviews with a national random sample of 1,114 adults.

Sigh, I am going to have to vote for a crappy Republican Candidate just to prevent a Clinton Presidency.

 

[Miles Teg]

Sigh. Now I'm going to have to consider doing the same. How can anyone support a woman who looks at the polls to see if breathing through you nostrils or you mouth is more popular?

 

[JohnRM]

Sigh. Now I'm going to have to consider doing the same. How can anyone support a woman who looks at the polls to see if breathing through you nostrils or you mouth is more popular?

"The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter."

 

[Masquerouge]

well for those of you that hate Clinton, there is hope:

Al Gore and George Bush both reached 50 percent in their parties in 1999. So did Bob Dole in 1995, George H.W. Bush in 1991 and 1987, and Walter Mondale in 1983.

 

[CaptainF]

Damnit.

Well, if Ronnie makes the ticket I'll jus vote 4 him.

 

[The Yankee]

Sigh, I am going to have to vote for a crappy Republican Candidate just to prevent a Clinton Presidency.

Yeah, really. Is Senator Clinton really the best Democrats could pull the lever for?

Though it's rarely about merit or ideas....

That said, with a huge lead, it does make the prospect of bringing in Obama as a VP nominee to heal party divisions less likely.

 

[The Yankee]

well for those of you that hate Clinton, there is hope:

Two winners and four losers. Doesn't say anything about what'll happen in the general, since it's possible the other candidates would have had the same general election fate.

 

[cubsfan6506]

I don't mind Clinton to much. I will vote for her over republicans. Why she does what the people want. I'm warming up to her look at the poll make a decision practice.

 

[Bast]

YES!! Go Hillary!!

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Hilary is awesome because she is a woman and as long as you're the first at something policy doesn't matter.

 

[The Yankee]

Yes, just ask President Jesse Jackson or Vice President Geraldine Ferraro or Vice President and then President Joementum.

 

[QuoVadisNation]

I saw it coming, Barrack Obama just didn't seem to have much to stand on except old rheotric like "let's all see some change in Washington", "let's do teamwork", and implicit socialist policies. I like all that, of course, but geez, talk about something else!

 

[LightFang]

All these threads about voting depress me because my classmates are so apathetic about voting.

 

[Japanrocks12]

All these threads about voting depress me because my classmates are so apathetic about voting.

seconded


and I don't like any candidates... I'm going to get ripped on for being apathetic

 

[CIVPhilzilla]

Clinton won't become our next president. I hope she wins the nomination just to see her get crushed in the national election, especially if Ron Paul manages to get the Republican nod.

 

[JollyRoger]

Clinton won't become our next president. I hope she wins the nomination just to see her get crushed in the national election, especially if Ron Paul manages to get the Republican nod.

Clinton probably has about a 50% shot of being our next President. Paul won't win a single primary.

 

[Miles Teg]

Clinton probably has about a 50% shot of being our next President. Paul won't win a single primary.

Five (metaphorical) bucks says he doesn't get into the top three in more then five states.

 

[BasketCase]

CNN spent like two whole days analysing "The Cackle". Not sure what to make of it. Could be raucous laughter, or the Wicked Witch of the West reborn, I dunno which........

 

[North King]

Clinton won't become our next president. I hope she wins the nomination just to see her get crushed in the national election, especially if Ron Paul manages to get the Republican nod.

Too bad there isn't a smiley which illustrates spitting your drink all over the computer screen. Ron Paul? Nominated? And winning? Good sir, taking the CFC straw poll as an indication of national trends is quite silly at best.

 

[The Yankee]

CNN spent like two whole days analysing "The Cackle". Not sure what to make of it. Could be raucous laughter, or the Wicked Witch of the West reborn, I dunno which........

A calculated move. Nothing more. It'd have to be, considering how out of place some of those seemed to be.

Like nearly every other politician.