Zohran Mamdani

[Voidwalkin]

A roadmap to beat Trump? How rise of Zohran Mamdani is dividing Democrats

Many believe Mamdani’s triumph shows it is time for national party to evolve but others say his brand of politics will not appeal in key battlegrounds

www.theguardian.com

Mamdani is latest breakthrough against establishment Dems and, more generally, the latest populist breakthrough. There has been some speculation that his campaign illustrates a model to defeat Trump. Thoughts?

Personally, I believe Mamdani met the moment well. The public has lost faith in the status quo, and the technocrats determined to perpetuate it. It is worth noting that Cuomo was that sort of candidate, and carried a great deal of his own baggage, yet, Mamdani's win was not a sure thing, in perhaps the most liberal place in America.

I think it can be taken away that people respond well to ideas once considered radical economically. If a presidential candidate were to propose renters take immediate ownership of their residence, and all credit scores are reset to 800, promising to use state muscle to do it, yeah, that's probably winning. Faith in the status quo is gone and wonky solutions are thought to be too-clever, ineffective half-measures.

I do, as can probably be predicted, believe that some of the ideology that surrounds Mamdani would need to be sidelined, though. The Palestine stuff, much discussed, is not a hard no nationally; I don't think many voters care one way or the other about it. The problem would be staffers and grassroots activists saying things like(reportedly) shifting the tax burden to higher income, whiter neighborhoods; the former sells very well, adding the whiter bit represents a manifestation of a view of id being extremely influential in economic position, id as class. Not huge in NYC, a pretty well off city. No sale in the poorer, whiter parts of the country, NYS even. Not only that, they'll vote Trump if they hear that too frequently.

El Marxo expected class revolution and kinda got it, with WW1, though, for the most part, people rallied around traditional, national identities. Mamdani would have to break with anything that would provoke similar entrenchment, or he or like-minded candidates would be unable to gather sufficient support to actually challenge elite preferences. I have a feeling it's all class consciousness or nothing, particularly in a country as diverse as the US.

 

[Senethro]

If Palestine electorally doesn't matter because most voters don't care..... then why not take a more adventurous anti-genocide position? Pick up some easy votes while the rest "don't care".

 

[danjuno]

He won because he focused on the bread and butter issues affecting New Yorkers. GOP culture war shenanigans can be shut down down by pointing them out for the distractions they are, keep the focus on the economy and Millenials and Zoomers who are now entirely voting age will respond.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

He’s not populist in the modern west sense, as he actually cares about vulnerable people.

 

[Voidwalkin]

If Palestine electorally doesn't matter because most voters don't care..... then why not take a more adventurous anti-genocide position? Pick up some easy votes while the rest "don't care".

It does matter. It's not hard no. It's soft no. It's not even about the specific cause, which people don't care much about, but the fact that those sympathetic to it also tend to say things like "America is a hopeless settler colonial slaver nation that should be reconstructed". People do care about that ideology, though, and too much overlap is really gonna make it difficult to translate nationally.

If you see two people who you suspect are having an affair, a little twinkle in the eye is enough to arouse your suspicion. Itself, not enough to draw condemnation. Guard up, though. Such suspicions will surround Mamdani. The public is not in a crusading mood, and if it is perceived that Mamdani is actually in love with causes typically defined as social justice, and the people who happily use phrases like settler colonial, that is gonna cause major trust issues in, well, the vast majority of the country. He can't be seen to be in great alignment there. Vibes would be devastating to prospects.

It didn't hurt him in NY. I'm reasonably sure Harris woulda taken a harsher anti-Israeli position if running for mayor of NYC, where both the specific cause and the ideology surrounding it enjoy far more sympathy than they do, say, just 25 miles north.

That's why we typically see progressive policies limited to deep blue areas, ofc.

 

[amadeus]

The margins by which he won the primary (7 points?) suggest to me he’s not guaranteed a victory in the generals unless he squeezes through “Three Stooges” style with Adams and Cuomo both splitting the vote. Silwa too, but New York is not going to vote for a conservative Republican anytime soon.

 

[Zardnaar]

Liberal wins sapphire blue electorate vs weak, unpopular candidate.

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

It's a New York City primary and I don't care too much. People just make it sound big because a lot of opinion journalist publications are housed there, so of course things tend to get amplified.

 

[Gori the Grey]

A roadmap to beat Trump

they'll vote Trump

Um . . .

 

[Voidwalkin]

Um . . .

MAGA, Trump, Republicans, all the same agenda by now, kinda indistinguishable

Or at least indistinguishable enough that I didn't catch that

 

[danjuno]

The margins by which he won the primary (7 points?) suggest to me he’s not guaranteed a victory in the generals unless he squeezes through “Three Stooges” style with Adams and Cuomo both splitting the vote. Silwa too, but New York is not going to vote for a conservative Republican anytime soon.

Bear in mind New York City uses RCV, and he cross-endorsed with Lander, who got another 11% in the first round. The final round is announced tomorrow, so we'll see the final tally then. That said, I can't see how running two equally hated lame ducks is really a winning strategy at this point.

 

[SemiLazyGamer]

That's why we typically see progressive policies limited to deep blue areas, ofc.

Even rank and file Republicans will generally have high opinions of and defend progressive policies when they have become entrenched, see social security, Medicare, Obamacare, it's only when it's being talked about by Democrats and being lambasted by the far-right do they hate it.

 

[Joij21]

I for one don't actually believe he's a socialist. Him and his wife clearly look well to do, if anything he's a social democrat (who will happily become pro corporatist ala Obama once the Soros money inevitably comes pouring in)

Ain't no way he's actually socialist, like no way. They'd have mossaded him by now if he really was, it's New York home of the world's largest capital exchange.

 

[danjuno]

I for one don't actually believe he's a socialist. Him and his wife clearly look well to do, if anything he's a social democrat (who will happily become pro corporatist ala Obama once the Soros money inevitably comes pouring in)

Ain't no way he's actually socialist, like no way. They'd have mossaded him by now if he really was, it's New York home of the world's largest capital exchange.

Trying to decide whether someone was a "man of the people" based on looks got us Fetterman.

Capital is panicking about it, but they're not a hivemind, how exactly they'll retaliate is not set in stone yet.

 

[Gori the Grey]

MAGA, Trump, Republicans, all the same agenda by now, kinda indistinguishable

It's just that I think Trumpism decomposes once Trump is no longer center-stage. And perhaps even more spectacularly if he is still on stage.

 

[Akka]

It's just that I think Trumpism decomposes once Trump is no longer center-stage. And perhaps even more spectacularly if he is still on stage.

"Trumpism" itself, maybe.
But Trumpism exists due to a whole array of factors, and those won't magically disappear. Far-right populists have been rising all over the West for years now, and just ignoring the causes while hoping that the symptoms vanish doesn't sound like a winning solution - it's just luck that so far, they have been so incompetents and repellent that they haven't entrenched even more in the electorate.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Oh, that is certainly true, Akka.

By saying what I said, I didn't mean to minimize the factors within the populace at large that have generated a rightward swing. But I think that here in the States, Trump marshals those factors in a way that's pretty unique to him. A big part of his success has been driving turnout from disaffected voters. When it's not his celebrity personality doing that any more, I think a lot of those people will go back to being non-voters, disaffected with the entire process of politics as such.

 

[H4run]

It’s astonishing how far American politicians and the government apparatus have fallen, so much so that simply not visiting Israel is considered a “radical” act. A guy refuses to kiss the ring of a colonial overlord by refusing the visit and kowtow to Israel and that's enough to make him a hero? lol think about it, the super powah Murica is in actuality in a such pathetic state, that’s a painfully low and embarrassing standard.

Meanwhile, New Yorkers are stuck with sky-high living costs, minimal government support, and many resorting to drug use or sales just to endure. Yet Israel receives the luxuries of free education, free healthcare, and more, all bankrolled by American taxpayers. It’s a dystopia brought to life. Absolutely horrific.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Meanwhile, New Yorkers are stuck with sky-high living costs, minimal government support, and many resorting to drug use or sales just to endure. Yet Israel receives the luxuries of free education, free healthcare, and more, all bankrolled by American taxpayers. It’s a dystopia brought to life. Absolutely horrific.

When was the last time you lived or spent any timer in NYC? My niece lives there just fine; even works for a non profit. Sensationalist local news hardly represents the experience of most of the people who live there. YeS, NYC is more expensive than many other cities, but can still live there and not be drug dealers or murderers to do so. lol

 

[H4run]

When was the last time you lived or spent any timer in NYC? My niece lives there just fine; even works for a non profit. Sensationalist local news hardly represents the experience of most of the people who live there. YeS, NYC is more expensive than many other cities, but can still live there and not be drug dealers or murderers to do so. lol

I don’t think you’re contradicting my core point: the city’s cost of living is unaffordable for many residents, yet taxpayer money meant to fix domestic crises gets funneled to fund superior welfare systems abroad (like Israel’s free healthcare and education) all bankrolled by struggling Americans. And is it true that not visiting Israel turns out to be a radical act of rebellion? That reality screams loudly about the pathetic state of the US government, and that’s the thing I’m noticing here. Do I really need to be a New Yorker or know one personally to spot that? Or to hold such an opinion? Or is it must be coming out from sensationalist news instead from any news that perhaps just hold a different perspective than yours or perhaps from an Eureka moment that I got it myself without any sensationalist news can be blame as the culprit that "radicalizes" my view? I might’ve rubbed your nationalist side the wrong way and baited that defensive reaction, you're kind of strawmanning me here buddy, but know this was never my intention to rub you the wrong way.