PREVIEW: staznes XI

[Grandkhan]

I confirm that I is.

Fun fact: my orders make this NES already alternate history.

 

[Ophorian]

Confirming that confirmation is occurring in amounts which we have confirmed to be significant. Furthermore, I confirm that Brazil is back and confirm also that we are ready to confirm whatever agreements may not have been confirmed with all the confirmed parties of our foreign policy.

Uhhhh, confirmed?

 

[SouthernKing]

I'm still here as India.

 

[Azale]

Stop, only I get to make fluff posts to boost my postcount. It's MY NES.

 

[TheLastJacobite]

Then post an update dammit!

 

[Luckymoose]

Azale doesn't respond well to harassment. You need to give him six months of silence.

 

[Crezth]

still england

 

[Symphony D.]

I would change several small details if I did it again but the overall arc of this remains competent.

Spoiler America 2013-2038 :

See Also:

• Supplemental Material 1
• Supplemental Material 2

Supplemental 2 overrides Supplemental 1 wherever they conflict.

Spoiler ISSUES :

Spoiler DOMESTIC POLITICS :

Spoiler POLITICAL PARTIES :

• Following a long streak of Democratic dominance, the Tea Party movement collapsed and the Republicans reestablished themselves as a realpolitik functional party focused on framing issues in terms of national strength and defense. In response, the Democrats have become the more individualistic party.
• Both parties tend to put a premium on defense and conservation in light of the PRC and the now indisputable climate change. Democrats have more focus on new social entitlements (e.g., implementing mincome, increasing the scope of healthcare, other progressive moves) while Republicans focus on improving existing programs instead (e.g., education, social security, etc.) and social issues and debt-hawk oriented politics of the early 21st century are mostly off the table.
• Political functionality significantly higher than today, akin to mid-Cold War era.
• US in negotiations with various Pacific Island Nations over possibility of incorporation into a 52nd State due to global warming and increased US influence in the Pacific, especially with Anchorpoint.

Spoiler NOTABLE EVENTS TIMELINE :

• Declined construction of Keystone XL Pipeline in 2014 with understanding other options for economic pursuit of tar sands by Canada were largely infeasible.
• Avoided Second Debt Ceiling Crisis (referred to as Second Debt Ceiling Fight) in swell of public outrage that broke the back of the Republican Party and officially put it in the Wilderness.
• Implemented "Obamacare."
• Made efforts to improve transparency of domestic cyber-security practices and limit them.
• Acceded to Kyoto Protocol in 2016.
• Puerto Rico integrated as 51st State in 2016 following 2012 Election outcome and much hand-wringing.
• Constitution modified, among other things (in the wake of the Second Debt Ceiling Fight) to remove clause for natural-born citizenship to the Presidency after Puerto Rico's incorporation.
• Various reforms including Tax Codes, revaluation of Social Security, Medicare Reform, etc., during intervening period. (I'm not smart enough nor want to spend the time to try and describe all these.)
• Supreme Court term limit of 25 years or age-limit of 75 introduced in 2023 following health crisis on the part of a certain Justice that refused to step down.
• Most drugs decriminalized in 2027.
• Brief spike in domestic terror incidents in 2020s.

Spoiler PRESIDENCY TIMELINE :

1. 2013-2016: Barack Obama (D)
2. 2017-2020: Hillary Clinton (D)
3. 2021-2024: Hillary Clinton (D)
4. 2025-2028: Julian Castro (D)
5. 2029-2032: Hung Ba Le (R)
6. 2033-2036: Hung Ba Le (R)
7. 2037-Present: Jonathan Sears (R)

Spoiler CURRENT PRESIDENCY :

Jonathan Sears (R) gained significant political cachet as the Vice-President during the landmark Presidency of Hung Ba Le, particularly as a result of his skillful handling of various foreign negotiation assignments. Served two 4-year contracts in USAF as a drone pilot, "saw" minor action in this capacity. In his two terms in the Senate (R-CA) prior to his selection by Le, Sears was noted as a shrewd and pragmatic politician capable of reaching across the aisle and preserving a position in a key blue state. Sears was not an architect of the Republican revival, but may be regarded as an important component of establishing its legitimacy. Highly capable, though seemingly not particularly creative, he has largely sought to continue the legacy of President Le in positioning America as the leader of the Pacific Rim and in keeping America on top of various fields worldwide, including combating climate change.

Spoiler FOREIGN RELATIONS :

Overview of notable relationships:

• Frenemies with People's Republic of China, serious hard and soft power competition world-wide while at the same time being interlinked. America contextualizes most of its major decisions in terms of how they affect this relationship and the power-structure within it.
• Wary relationship with Russia during its autocratic periods, generally reconcilatory when feasible. Attempts made to introduce friction into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to reduce Beijing/Moscow unity when possible by getting Russia to defect on key issues, though not at the price of significant concessions. Willing to engage Russia as an equal if possible to assuage its insecurities.
• Reduced importance allocated to NATO. General minimization of assets to Ramstein AB, Germany. Forces rotate through for training, et al., but substantially reduced footprint.
• Maintenance of UKUSA Community, US-UK "Special Relationship," ANZUS obligations, integration of Canada, et al., although the general trend in economics has been to sort of keep Canada within the American economic sphere.
• Maintenance of relations with Japan.
• Attempts at assisting Japanese-Korean reconciliation.
• Heightened and intense interest in the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership and Association of Southeast Asian Nations, both collectively and bilaterally with member nations.
• Heightened and intense interest in relations with India, to the detriment of those with Pakistan if need be. Generally back India over PRC in post-withdrawl Afghanistan.
• Behind-the-scenes approach in South America and Africa, but definitive presence, particularly in terms of security operations. (The approach in Africa by AFRICOM is instructive.)
• Remain committed to non-nuclear Iran.
• Desire resolution of Syria issue that is stable, foremost.
• Committed to preserving newfound Middle East democracies if feasible.
• Remain staunchly opposed to the North Korean regime, tacitly supportive of eventual reunification in the event of its collapse or removal, but cautiously so given the East German experience.
• Remain committed to Taiwan.

Spoiler OTHER ISSUES & DEVELOPMENTS :

• Polywell and its effects on the economy and world are detailed in both supplemental resources. Supplemental 2 takes priority.
• Anchorpoint is detailed in Supplemental 2.
• NASA visited a repositioned asteroid in 2022, and conducted several other deep space missions, eventually in tandem with private enterprise and other national parties (esp. JAXA) throughout the 2020s. This culminated in the Antares Program, designed to land a Human crew on Mars (there were token jaunts to the Moon, although these were mostly by private partners). This program utilized a modified Mars Direct architecture coupled with VASIMR technology coupled with a Polywell to reach Mars in just 42 days (ironic given the historical animosity of Chang-Diaz and Zubrin) in 2035. The first mission lasted two years and was a resounding success, paving the way for further exploration. (Up to you if they found signs of life or not.)

Spoiler MILITARY AFFAIRS :

General Overview:

• Shift in focus from Iraq/Afghanistan Era of Army and USMC to Navy and USAF. Large expensive systems are difficult to acquire and more strategically important than infantry.
• Primary doctrine is AirSea Battle, primary focus is against PRC for preserving access to the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and South, Southeast, and East Asia. Secondary focus is containment and resolution of brushfire wars elsewhere.
• General trend toward high-tech, high-quality, highly networked and integrated forces continues.
• Emphasis on preserving, maintaining, and improving force projection.
• Greater integration of Guard and Reserve units into paradigm of Active Duty forces.

Spoiler US ARMY :

• Somewhat downsized.
• Dual-track force structure: "Light" forces designed for rapid-deployment, "Heavy" for protracted conflict.
• "Light" forces primarily infantry-based with light vehicle support including IFVs, "Heavy" forces primarily armor-based including latest iteration of MBT.
• Greater focus on special forces amongst infantry units, including foreign population policing, occupation, andCOIN specialists, in addition to traditional roles.
• Adoption of ETC pulse guns, caseless ammunition, LSAT technology, etc. Contemplating adoption of railguns for armored vehicles.
• Adoption of powered armor by infantry, more functional than current designs, being rolled out.
• Latest tank iteration is M1A3, notable upgrade from M1A2 in survivability and lethality.

Spoiler US NAVY :

• Early adopter of fusion technology and a huge proponent and developer of Directed Energy Weapons (DEW).
• Has adopted DEW to major ship classes both for defense (primarily lasers) and offense (primarily railguns), as well as installations.
• Continues to be primarily-carrier based (Gerald R. Ford class), using F-35B and FQ-47 (X-47C) drone as primary combat aircraft.
• (Extremely long range) Bombardment has come back into vogue with adoption of railguns on Zumwalt class destroyers, with cruise missiles being increasingly deemphasized given obsolescence in the face of DEW.
• Submarines retain ballistic missile and cruise missile functionality, with increasing emphasis on survivability of the missiles. Exploration of supercavitating "missile" torpedos that spend most of flight-time underwater before popping up to ensure survivability, and stealth cruise missiles akin to AGM-129 ongoing to replace Tomahawks.
• Discussion and preliminary investigation of new-generation cruiser and battleship designs ongoing in light of DEW tipping the balance against missiles and providing extremely long range bombardment capabilities.
• Investigating sixth-generation fighters and nuclear warhead fission primary replacements in a Reliable Replacement Warhead program with USAF, which it is generally on better terms with.

Spoiler USMC :

• Generally same as US Army, though so far slower to adopt powered armor given more mobile bias, lacks dual-track architecture since it has always been a Rapid Reaction Force. Accordingly has far fewer heavy armor units percentagewise.
• Has been somewhat politically neutralized since early 2020s after having been locked out of leadership of certain Unified Combatant Commands (e.g., USSTRATCOM). Has on-and-off-again been under threat of having Joint Chiefs of Staff position subordinated to US Navy.

Spoiler USAF :

• Has retained rights to military space leadership despite token calls for a US Space Force. US Navy has not challenged it for access.
• Deployed a host of new systems, including the Long Range Strike-Bomber (B-3 Phantom, akin to B-2 Spirit but higher performance envelope and lower maintenance; subsonic, stealthy, highly drone capable, nuclear capable) in the 2020s, the currently-still secret 2037 Bomber undergoing tests (B-4 Valkyrie II, hypersonic waverider, stealthy, drone-capable, nuclear capable), the F-22 and F-35 fighter fleets, KC-46 tanker, and an as yet still-classified replacement of the SR-71 Blackbird (similar to the B-4 Valkyrie II, but smaller and faster still; designation R-6 Shinigami). Remains at the cutting edge of aircraft.
• Investigating sixth generation fighters with US Navy given low quantity of F-22s compared to initial order. Also investigating nuclear warhead replacement and upgrades.
• Lobbying for replacement of Minuteman III missiles to keep Nuclear Triad structure competitive in a DEW environment.
• Has equipped F-35s and certain other aircraft with combat-capable DEWs, diode laser-based[/url].
• Has quietly experimented with purely kinetic space-based weapons, although no operational combat systems officially exist.
• Has placed an extremely high priority on cyberwarfare capabilities, officially overseeing as it does the military component of America's efforts. Has developed a unique culture-within-a-culture for acquiring and retaining best American "cyberwarriors" it can; somewhat relaxed culture compared to rest of military architecture; composed almost largely of officers given qualifications. Efforts and operations intensely classified.

Spoiler MISCELLANEOUS :

I don't do sports and everything America does is important.

Spoiler SUMMARY :

1. America remains focused on global leadership and primacy.
2. American politics are relatively unscrewed compared to present.
3. American solutions tend to be a mix of hard and soft power, with a particular focus on innovation and technology.
4. America is optimistic and expansive, although no longer quite within its means at doing everything by itself.

 

[christos200]

Is this still alive?

 

[Symphony D.]

I preemptively quit this too so that Birdjaguar has no excuse for deleting my totally rules-compliant posts.

 

[Luckymoose]

I take Symphony's spot and claim all of his work as my own.

 

[Symphony D.]

Fine by me.

This is a farce anyway; the entirety of the Gulf War was staged, fought, and won in less time (2 August 1990 – 28 February 1991: 211 days) than this thread has been up. Even if a single update is produced, who gives a damn? This process doesn't recommend the follow-ups. Whoo yeah, maybe 10 updates in by 2020 at the present going rate! Exciting! Because it'll totally run that long. Yeah.

 

[North King]

I preemptively quit this too so that Birdjaguar has no excuse for deleting my totally rules-compliant posts.

Just post them in the show your orders thread.

 

[Luckymoose]

My post is a joke anyway. I don't have the time to play in more NESes, so by joining this I can pretend I'm in a NES and not have to worry about actually playing in it.

 

[Symphony D.]

Just post them in the show your orders thread.

Nope, it's time to hoist the banners of revolution in protest. Jacobins unite!

 

[North King]

Well I'll just have to post them there myself. OPEN SOURCE ORDERSETS 4EVA. Linux! Mozilla! USA!

What do you say to that?

 

[Symphony D.]

Your cause and my cause are not incompatible. My planks are:

1. Protesting the continued assurances of people who have no intent/ability to deliver on a product, which even were they to, would not have much longevity/customer service support and would likely quickly become obsolescent and abandoned.
2. Convincing said persons to simply own up to this reality.
3. Demonstrating my displeasure with (1) and (2) due to the effort I put into assisting those efforts, tangible or intangible, which has all been for naught.
4. Protesting the overbearing and ridiculous nature of moderation's interference in activities which are absolutely and wholly outside the scope of rules or even forum etiquette.
5. Placing knowledge of those efforts on public display to effect the above planks. (P.S. if you want to see links I dumped on Azale over this "production," check out his wall.)

Provided your interests do not interfere, the Open Source Agenda is not in conflict with the Jacobin Players' Front.

e: The JPF has decided to accede to the lobbying of the OSA. Also, here is a relevant section from the Scientific American link on the Keystone XL should you not be able to get behind their paywall:

Spoiler KEYSTONE CONNECTION :

THIS CARBON BUDGET explains why Abraham, Caldeira and Hansen joined 15 other scientists to sign a letter to President Obama urging him to reject the proposed 2,700-kilometer-long Keystone XL pipeline. Building the pipeline -- and thus enabling even more tar sands production -- is "counter to both national and planetary interests," the scientists wrote.

Obama, who postponed approval of the pipeline just before the 2012 presidential election, struck a climate-friendly note in his second inaugural address as well as his 2013 State of the Union speech. His decision on Keystone XL will come after the State Department releases its final report on the pipeline.
In a first draft of its report, the State Department downplayed the pipeline's impact, both on the viability of the tar sands operations and on the environment. Keystone XL, it said, would be "unlikely to have a substantial impact" on greenhouse gas emissions. But the authors of the report seem to have assumed that if Keystone XL were not built, Canada would find some other economical way of transporting the oil to consumers.

The Environmental Protection Agency issued a response in April that cast the matter in a different light. According to Cynthia Giles, assistant administrator for EPA'S Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assurance, the State Department report relied on faulty economics, among other oversights. The EPA, drawing on past experience with big environmental assessments, suggested that alternatives to Keystone XL were either significantly more costly or faced major opposition. Having to get by without Keystone XL, in other words, might constrain tar sands development. In May the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed this analysis in its own prediction for the tar sands.
Tar sands oil is already traveling south by train, but this is a stopgap measure. Moving tar sands by rail is three times more expensive than by pipeline at current rates. As the tar sands operations ramp up, rail alone could prove a prohibitive cost barrier to further development.

What about another pipeline, should Keystone XL fail? Canada has the option of going west to the Pacific Coast to reach supertankers bound for China. Or it could go east, through existing pipelines, to the Midwest or the Atlantic Coast. These options are problematic. A Pacific pipeline -- the least viable choice -- would have to traverse the Rocky Mountains, passing through land owned by First Nations and other native groups in British Columbia, who have opposed a pipeline for fear of spills and other impacts. An Atlantic pipeline could be cobbled together from pipelines that now link Alberta to the eastern coast of North America. Engineers would have to reverse the flow of oil, much as ExxonMobil did for the Pegasus pipeline, which now carries crude from Illinois to Texas. But older pipelines that have been reversed may be more prone to leaks. Pegasus, for instance, sprung a tar sands oil leak in Arkansas this past April. And retrofitting existing pipelines is likely to elicit strong protest from environmentalists and others.

Given these obstacles, the tar sands industry needs Keystone XL to further expand, according to the EPA and IEA reports. At present, Alberta's tar sands produce 1.8 million barrels of oil a day. Keystone XL would ship another 830,000 barrels daily.

Mindful of the environmental opposition, Alberta and energy firms have tried to minimize greenhouse gas pollution in the tar sands operations. Royal Dutch Shell is trying an expensive alternative to breaking down bitumen into oil that involves adding hydrogen, rather than cooking off carbon into pet coke, to reduce CO2 emissions. The international oil giant has also begun developing plans for adding carbon capture and storage equipment to one of its mini refineries, a project dubbed Quest. When completed in 2015, Quest will attempt to annually store deep underground one million metric tons of CO2, or roughly one third of the facility's pollution. Another similar project plans to capture CO2 for use to flush more conventional oil out of the ground.

Alberta is also one of the only oil-producing regions in the world to have a tax on carbon. Currently capped at $15 per metric ton, discussions continue to potentially raise that price. The province has invested the more than $300 million collected to date in technology development, primarily to reduce CO2 emissions from the tar sands. The tax "gives us some ammunition when people attack us for our carbon footprint, if nothing else," Ron Liepert, then Alberta's minister of energy, told me in 2011.

Efforts to reduce the carbon footprint of the tar sands add further to the cost of extracting the oil and have not had a big impact on the carbon footprint. The 1.8 million barrels of tar sands oil a day produced in 2011 resulted in more than 47 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in 2011, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

The IEA, in a 2010 analysis of ways to stay below the two degree C threshold, suggested that tar sands production in Alberta cannot exceed 3.3 million barrels a day by 2035. Yet mining already approved or under construction in Alberta could raise production to five million barrels a day by 2030. It's hard to imagine how to mine the tar sands without blowing the carbon budget.

And here are some addenda:

In the interests of spicing up the scenario a little: securing the Internment and Reeducation Camps around Pyongyang before the Chinese can get to them is probably a (not supremely high, but pressing) political priority in the war. On the ground evidence that the Chinese can't whitewash of North Korean atrocities can then be brought before The Hague/International Criminal Court to indict the North Korean leadership (whatever of it still exists) that is captured for crimes against Humanity, and/or to hold that defects to the Chinese to account in absentia.

This will correspondingly make housing that leadership politically unsavory for the Chinese and likewise shine a light on the prison camps they themselves will invariably wind up occupying, and either force them to look bad or play ball with the rest of the international field.

Should make it a wee more interesting.

Since I never actually answered the question: the US places a premium on securing Pakistan's nukes in the event of a crisis and largely maintains ties with Pakistan with this as a primary objective.

If Pakistan goes south or goes rogue, the US will likely coordinate to whatever capacity it can with the Indian government to neutralize the threat and may offer both covert and overt assistance to the same, including special forces and airstrikes to neutralize the threat if the Indians are incapable of doing so themselves in a timely fashion.

This would, naturally, come with certain expectations in return, rather than for free, although that would not be a matter of public record.

 

[Shadowbound]

I claim victory in this NES by forfeit.

 

[Symphony D.]

China sucks and he was giving you massively unrealistic benefits to even compete. Also I heard your orders were terrible. Enjoy that victory.

 

[Shadowbound]

Link to video.