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man imagine if we were still on IRC for this nfl season

Adrien what do you think of this row between Macron and Bayrou over the seat allotment and unkept promises?

The rumor circuit right now is that Macron will choose a PM from the LRs. Since it seems like the right-wing Socialists will already join him, it seems like he will be able to destroy the two main political parties at once and consolidate power under him. Next step, declaring himself first...

As far as I know Macron has a bit of a grudge against Valls from their time together in government, even if their positions look similar on the political spectrum. It's not like Valls is popular either so there doesn't seem to be an advantage to him taking Valls, unless Valls can get more...

I heard that EM already nominated a different candidate for Valls' constituency?

One of the slogans that FN supporters love to shout at rallies is "On est chez nous," trans. "We are at home!" I actually happen to love the slogan! Why? Because it has an even better effect when immigrants shout it.

The political discussion is interesting, but I cannot abide the opinion of one who equates fascism with liberalism as equal evils, as if to forget all the lessons of the past century. My own politics have as much of Hamon's ideas as Macron's, but they were in the only candidates in this election...

:lol:

Yes current projections 62-64% vote share, higher than expected turnout.

The Belgians

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon : Macron 63,3%, Le Pen 36,7% Saint-Barthélemy : Macron 58,4%, Le Pen 41,6% Saint-Martin : Macron 67,6%, Le Pen 32,4% Guadeloupe : Macron 75,1% , Le Pen 24,9% Martinique : Macron 77,5, Le Pen 22,5% Guyane : Macron 65%, Le Pen 35% New-York : Macron 94,7%, Le Pen 5,3%...

Let's just say that I'm glad I put a small bet on MOV 22+ on predictit early this week.

I'm not surprised that those condoning fascism would have such respect for the rule of law.

So how do people think the French will take the leaks? I feel like it could even swing numbers toward Macron, since the appearance is that he is being attacked by foreign terrorists and spies. It certainly doesn't have the aura of legitimacy that a statement by a certain FBI did six months ago.

Betting markets are a lagging indicator for the polls, not a leading one. So I agree that treating them with any degree of predictive power is silly, however, Americans tend to enjoy horse race mechanics and treat politics as a bit of a spectator sport. Some might find it a bit distasteful but I...

https://i.imgur.com/xkJHNMo.mp4

Do you think it was smart for Macron to take this debate? Chirac refused to debate her father and it doesn't seem like Macron has much to gain.

There are backtests which show a candidate or proposition trailing by 1-2% in the polls on election day would have a ~20-30% chance of winning. 20% down? If there is a case in recent times, I have not heard of it.