SGOTM 13 - Plastic Ducks

in my best plan for mc (4 lhs, 3 grans up till t110) i also slowbuilt the lh in paris. so i really, really would like the next turnset beeing played and a bit more of the map researched cause we can better decide (and test) between currency and mc if we know more about the map... ...spotting or NOT spotting bronze would be nice, seeing if there is food near the stone (ov whip of moai) and such things...

the mc plan isnt that static as the currency plan btw. just tell me what we need to do to cope with the currency plan for the next 15-20 turns (research myst-masonry-poly at 0% to get some gold) and i can adapt said plan.

knowing more will benefit us greatly, no matter if we simulate for mc or currency.

-> put down the best path to currency in detail and we play following it to scout a bit more of the map.
-> we should use the warrio in paris to get him to the stones to scout (if we need him back in paris, then we simply ship him back)

question:

when do we have a wb-scout ready in the currency plan? the faster the better, to scout more around for bronze.
also, we dont need a second galley right now. better get a scouting warrior + scoutign wb out fast

Technically, we can play for as long as the two approaches do the same things. If we agree on not whipping the LH for max commerce+food then we can play quite a few turns, at least Myst+Masonry.

So all we need is a rough plan for both approaches and see where both diverge. We can play until that point and have a much better idea of the game. For example, if Stonehenge/TGW are still available at that time, it means we can delay The Oracle without much risk.

i have the mc plan ready... ...just needs to be written down

from reading bic´s currency plan, we are about the same along the lines:

slowbuilding the lh
researching myst-masonry-poly at 0% reseach (to get enough gold to get through the next tech at 100%)

i do 3 pop whips for the settlers in my approach. i assume it would be best also for the currency approach, but this should be tested. like that we optimize the time our capital can grow, which should be best in both approaches

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i will write down the mc approach tonight in full detail. would be great if someone can do the same with the currency approach. then we can finally play the next 20 turns or so and hopefully know more.

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@ kossin:

i agree on observing the wonder dates. another very important info...

Good

Unfortunately I am a bit busy today and tomorrow so I can't test. However from what I did earlier I think we're close to optimizing our approaches anyway. Spending more time on the late game will be more important as Duckweed said, we can easily lose a lot of turns later on due to poor micro.

kossin said:

Technically, we can play for as long as the two approaches do the same things. If we agree on not whipping the LH for max commerce+food then we can play quite a few turns, at least Myst+Masonry.

So all we need is a rough plan for both approaches and see where both diverge. We can play until that point and have a much better idea of the game. For example, if Stonehenge/TGW are still available at that time, it means we can delay The Oracle without much risk.

Click to expand...

Agree: There is probably a point to which we can run, then diverge.

One difference I noticed between the BiC and Kossin routes is that BiC let the WB (after the lighthouse) grow naturally, whereas Kossin whipped the WB as soon as size 3 was reached...then sent it off exploring.

Snaaty said:

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researching myst-masonry-poly at 0% reseach (to get enough gold to get through the next tech at 100%)

Click to expand...

We also want to just barely finish Masonry too, right? So maybe run at 60% or 70% or whatever research rate so that a minimum number of beakers overflow into Poly before setting Poly to 0%.

Also @Snaaty: Or is it Pottery after Masonry for optimal city growth? Maybe depends on whether Hinduism falls before Masonry research is complete.

Also, how quickly can we get the Colossus up? I suppose that depends on both whether Org Rel and/or Bronze are available to us....

It seems pretty safe to assume that we face only one AI who started with Mysticism. Unless Byzantium is considered "European", then the only two Euro-Mystics are Spain and HRE. HRE seems more likely since Isabella likes to found extra religions, doesn't she?

With the MC route, a GE->Machinery bulb is appealing. Is there a comparable first-bulb if we go the Currency route?

Short list of things to pay attention to in test games:
Wonder biadl dates (useful even after Oracle/Colossus for failgold expectation)
Number of turns after Hinduism that Judaism falls
Barb galley spawn date
Circumnavigation date

kossin said:

If we agree on not whipping the LH for max commerce+food then we can play quite a few turns, at least Myst+Masonry.

Click to expand...

Agree. If not whipping the LH let 3rd settler come out fast, then it could be better, the weak part is that 3rd city can't work on improved clam from beginning. Calling for active player to post a plan.

Compromise said:

We also want to just barely finish Masonry too, right? So maybe run at 60% or 70% or whatever research rate so that a minimum number of beakers overflow into Poly before setting Poly to 0%.

[...]

With the MC route, a GE->Machinery bulb is appealing. Is there a comparable first-bulb if we go the Currency route?

Click to expand...

@ completing Masonry with minimal overflow.
Partial slider may lose us commerce.
For the operation to be worth it Masonry should bring us either 1+2 or 2 alone:
1- increase our raw commerce output (Sailing, Currency)
2- multiply our base commerce (Writing, Civil Service)
Without n°2 or already existing multipliers in the Empire, condition n°1 is neutral.

@ Currency route and bulbing.
Currency is a step on the path to Civil Service.
With or without the marble wonders (Parthenon and National Epic ; Great Library,to an extent ; the Great Library being useful mostly for an easy Academy + the raw techboost... 1 great scientist is enough, I guess),
we will have early access to Caste System : we could envision a Great Merchant bulb.
However, a Machinery bulb with a GM seems impractical (needs Currency + Metal Casting + Code of Laws + Monarchy + Alphabet + Maths ).
A later bulb to Guilds would make more sense. But that is probably too late.


When we will put up next vote for the Oracle's pick, I'm favouring more and more voting for MC...
The only configuration I can imagine where Currency > MC is if Astronomy is required very early.


@ Currency on T106 (micro in post 260) :
I didn't test but I think that a 3pop whip in Paris on T94 won't affect the Oracle's date.
-> micro adjustments ->
T89 : Paris is size 7. Works 2 mines + 2 coasts
T94 : Paris 3pop whips into Oracle
T95-103 : Paris regrows on seafood + coasts + building Oracle
T104 : Paris 2pop whips galley
T105 : Paris resumes Oracle for finish.

@ Snaaty :
3rd city : 3pop whip the settler at size 6 vs slowbuild at size 5.

On what turn did you settle city 3 ?
Slowbuilding leads to city 3 settled on T82.
Also, shouldn't a Granary be the first whip ?


@ Turnset :
Playing until Masonry is in / Lighthouse is complete seems safe
Did we agree on the direction for scouting?
In post 179, Srad drew 3 paths for future scouting.
It's a blind guess but the westernmost one has my preference (Grey). Maybe it could reveal an AI... Red is also fine.

Unfortunately I couldn't 100% confirm the western path and settling the city will give us good visibility on that area. I think several of us were ok for the red path. It would also reveal the missing tiles around the small island where a 4th city might go.

I'll try to do a test run tonight with your suggested micro to see how it handles. Let's get this baby moving again.

As for the next set, it seems we are in agreement about not whipping the LH so there is little to discuss. I agree with Duckweed - awaiting madviking's PPP. Hopefully we can get this done within 48 hours

im right now fighting wiht a moving plan for our galley... ...scouting a bit, moving our worker gold-(forest)marble, then the first scouting warrior from paris to stone, then the next settler to marble isnt as easy as it seems without loosing a turn of scouting or delaying the settler transport

wb for marble clams isnt a problem. doing a 3pop whip we generat enough ov to get it out with minimal dely (im building another wb earlier but this should be used to scout...)

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@ kossin:
no, next whip should be a settler (im saying this without testing, so no guarantee). we can grow back building the granary. whipping the granary right away we are delaying our settler too much cause we need to grow back after the whip and getting a granary up after the settler seems about right to me (before the next whip)

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ill try to have a detailed plan ready tonight. if i still cant post pics tonight, i will email them to you kossin, so you can post them via external storage + link. is this ok?

I think the middle statement is actually meant for BiC

Sure, I can host pics easily enough with Imageshack.

I'll also try to look into the game tonight as I said earlier, we really do need to get moving.

@ bic:

we can scout all 3 routes drawn by compromise in the post youre refering to:

wb for goldcity-fish:
red

gally after unloading worker:
grey

gally after leaving worker on marble island:
blue, then pathing below the 1 tile island, picking up scouting warrior for stone

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im still working on a "full" sim, including markers for all movements and such... ...be patient

ok, simulation done, save (with all put down with markers... ...lots, lots LOOOOOOOOTS of markers) sent to kossins to upload and post here

summary:
i tested both approaches, currency and mc. currency in t106 and mc in t101 are exactly the same untill t77. then we have the option with the mc approach to send a workboat scouting and to whip one in gold city for marlbe city, whereas we need the workboat from the capital for marble city in the currency approach (gold city cant be whipped, or we dont get enough commerce for currency t106)

the 3pop whip for the marble settler is better then the 2pop whip in both approaches.

@ kossin:

wb-xy are markers for the wb turns at a certain turn
g-xy are the markers for the galley at a certain turn

if a ship passes a tile twice, its marked like that: g-xy+yz (gally was there turn xy and yz)

builds of cities, whips, production switches and so on are put down like this next to the specific city:
txy: settler whip or txy:wb -> settler (production-switch)

tile assignment is on auto, or its marked in the same way as a production switch

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research has to be switched off t75 (i forgot about this so in my save we are 3 turns into pottery)

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if we decide to use the wb from the capital also in the mc approach for marble city, we have some turns more that are the same (but i would opt for the scout. the more we know of the map, the better)

Snaaty's save through t77

http://www.mediafire.com/?wrbcjdmaq1fvc7q

Trying out a few test runs in an hour or 2.

Nicely documented save.

Quick questions:

The WB that just finished in Paris is headed to Marble city, right?

Also, the research slider is set to 80%. Did you run binary research after founding Orleans, or is that just to show what the breakeven research rate is right now? Edit: Oh, I see you answered this already.... Research needed to go to 0% after Masonry,

If you need it for testing--which I doubt--the game has a forest on the southwest corner of the northern (tundra) island.

Edit 2: Congrats on post #1500, Snaaty!

WB: yes for marble

I did a blind test and had the same exact result Snaaty, the only difference being I did binary to avoid losing beakers so I'm a bit ahead. (Whenever total commerce is odd, run 100% or you'll lose some beakers)

kossin said:

WB: yes for marble

I did a blind test and had the same exact result Snaaty, the only difference being I did binary to avoid losing beakers so I'm a bit ahead. (Whenever total commerce is odd, run 100% or you'll lose some beakers)

Click to expand...

if we are going for currency, the wb must go to marble

if we are going for mc, the wb can go to marble or can go scouting.


so if we are set on currency, or we are still undecided which route to pick, we should send the wb to marble. if we are sure on mc on the other hand, i would send the wb out scouting, the marble city wb can be whipped in gold city


edith adds:
yeah, i know, binary research is better, but keep forgetting about it. how many beakers did you manage to gain within the 17 turns of this set?

Let me check...

Went back a few turns because I had more gold left in the stash compared to your approach.
Yours: 86b in Pottery, 10 gold left

Option a) 83b in Pottery, 20 gold left
Option b) 103b in Pottery, 4 gold left
Option c) 94b in Pottery, 9 gold left
Option d) 90b in Pottery, 12 gold left

Extrapolating... 92~93b left for 10 gold left so 6~7 beakers more. We can probably make this bigger if we pay attention to the beaker discounts (40% discount means anything that isn't a multiple of 5 loses parts of beakers)

We can't avoid losing beakers to roundoff because we're stuck at 27C for a while. I can look into it if we consider it important though.

I also ended up with 1 more hammer in Paris than you I just noticed. This is why:

You grew Paris to size 6 before queuing the settler. Coast is 2F2C but we get 1 unhealthy citizen so it's really 1F2C ... on a settler that's -1H.

However, those 2C are actually worth 3 beakers, we'd be effectively trading 1H for 3C.
(27*1.4 = [37.8] = 37 vs 29*1.4 = [40.6] = 40)


EDIT:
OTOH, the good news about this is that we can do some partial research slider without losing too much with an odd commerce total:

Example, 27C total run 70% slider, (3gpt upkeep) (so 1 gpt = 9C)

27*.7 = [18.9] = 18*1.4 = [25.2] = 25b
27*.3 = [8.1] = 8g (+5gpt)
Loss = 1C (27-18-8 = 1) is lost on the research slider but...
19*1.4 = [26.6] = 26
Only 1 lost beaker

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I'll try to get a plan going.

Looks like OSS finally settled in place... as seems to have done most teams.