SGOTM 14 - Plastic Ducks

Below is the part of my plan starting on T55, with modifications to take into account Toto's healing and the new NY micro by kossin.

The next mini-set will probably go until completion of Meditation to reassess the bonus on research from AIs.


T55 :
- Mysticism in , set research on Meditation (slider still 100%)
- NY grows to P3, works Wheat+Gems+unimproved Deer, starts a worker
- Toto heals in place
- The worker SW of the Stone moves to the forest 2N1E of Washington (check that the tile is in Washington's current BFC) to chop into settler

T56 :
- Worker near Marble goes back to Corn and finish road

T57 :
- Boston grows to P2, works Oasis+GLH (just finished mining)
- Toto resumes scouting in the East direction, following northern coast, safety first
- Sentry Archer 1S of the sheep (better fogbusting vs. small risk of barb city spawning)
- Road on Corn is done, move worker to Stone

T58 :
- Meditation in, set research on Priesthood
- Worker on GLH also moves to stone and both workers road

T59 :
- Each worker moves to the 3 forests 2W,1NW, and 1N of Boston to chop into Oracle (stop 1 turn from completion)

T60 :
- Priesthood in, set research on Masonry
- Boston starts WB, works Oasis + Crabs (just improved by first WB)

T61 :
- NY works Wheat+Gems+Silk if the tech situation is unchanged
- Washington starts on a worker
- Settler moves to Marble Hill

T62 :
- Masonry is in, slider @0%, (set research to ?)
- GS is out and bulbs Maths
- NY works Wheat+Gems+unimproved Deer
- Settle Philadelphia on Marble
- Boston starts Oracle
- All 3 workers finish chopping => Oracle completed

I've looked a bit into the barb city spawning mechanisms
The most complete post I've found is here.

Basically, from what I understand, barb cities will start popping from turn 25, if the average number of cities per active Civ is > 2, and at a 7% chance per turn.

If a barb city is spawned, its location is determined through a quite complex calculation. But if we make the assumption of a single continent (clearly the case here), then it becomes quite simpler : the barbs value cities just as the AIs do, meaning the barb cities will spawn in juicy locations.

So what are the consequences in our game :
- I believe we were right to leave Toto where he is to protect Silver city
- Archer has to move fast to protect our canal city, clearly in danger
- The ressource city (Horse+Cows+Copper) makes a very likely barb city spot, cutting our TRs with the East witches, so we should seriously think about fogbusting this one as well....

Bebekija said:

Below is the part of my plan starting on T55, with modifications to take into account Toto's healing and the new NY micro by kossin.

The next mini-set will probably go until completion of Meditation to reassess the bonus on research from AIs.


T55 :
- Mysticism in , set research on Meditation (slider still 100%)
- NY grows to P3, works Wheat+Gems+unimproved Deer, starts a worker
- Toto heals in place
- The worker SW of the Stone moves to the forest 2N1W of Washington (check that the tile is in Washington's current BFC) to chop into settler

2N1E, should be type error.
You did not mentioned the archer, the best fogbust tile is 1S of the sheep.


T56 :
- Worker near Marble goes back to Corn and finish road

T57 :
- Boston grows to P2, works Oasis+GLH (just finished mining)
- Toto resumes scouting in the East direction, following northern coast, safety first
- Sentry Archer on the forest 1SE of the sheep (less defense than the forested hill but better fogbusting)
- Road on Corn is done, move worker to Stone

T58 :
- Mysticism in, set research on Priesthood
- Worker on GLH also moves to stone and both workers road

T59 :
- NY works Wheat+Gems+Lake

Need to reevaluate the tech situation that time, best case is to work on Deer.

- Each worker moves to one of the 3 forest north of Boston to chop into Oracle (stop 1 turn from completion)

Better to be 2W, 1NW, 1N. Easier for later worker movement.

T60 :
- Priesthood in, set research on Masonry
- Boston starts WB, works Oasis + Crabs (just improved by first WB)

Starts a warrior, I'm worrying about the barbarian in the north. One barbarian archer could screw our plan badly!

T61 :
- Washington starts on a worker
- Settler moves to Marble Hill

T62 :
- Masonry is in, slider @0%, (set research to ?)

Partial slider (need to check that time) to complete Hunting in 2 turns.

- GS is out and bulbs Maths
- NY works Wheat+Gems+unimproved Deer

If working on Deer all the time, NY worker should be done this turn, NY starts another worker, move the worker to Deer tile.

- Settle Philadelphia on Marble
- Boston starts Oracle
- All 3 workers finish chopping => Oracle completed

Click to expand...

That says, stop after Med is done.

The canal city should be safe starting next turn, there already should be much better alternatives for barb cities to spawn in though. In any case, I'll run a few Hub maps to see when barb cities do start to plop down, as it isn't a standard map type and all...

Next stop is after Meditation, agree.

Also, two more screenshot requests:
Set Masonry as research, I want screenshot of tech bar.
Set Meditation as research, I want screenshot of tech bar.

While the 6% extras from AIs might not be decipherable by crunching the numbers and seeing a turn difference, the pixels on the tech bar don't lie.

Comment:

t56
move the archer on top of the future city location to reveal a few more tiles. If we are really worried about barb cities, then this tile is better for the archer than 1S of sheep.
Barb cities can spawn ANYWHERE where there is fog, even if a unit is 2 tiles away.
While unlikely, moving 1S of sheep leaves 1 tile open with 3 resources in first ring, good choice for barb city.

Will wait on t59 and later comments. Agree with Duckweed up until there beside what I said. Not sold on warrior from Boston, need some tests. I think it's possible that all the barbs that could spawn have already spawned - there is a limit on a landmass. With only 5 tiles to move around, we might already have seen what was there.


~~~~

Barb activity:

Did 5 tests (this is fairly long even when you skip everything because I have to simulate our expansion).

Entering borders: 73,76,75,75,74 ... this is fairly stable from game to game
1st Barb city: 48, -, 57 -, 54 ... some weird things here, 2 occurrences with no barb cities until t75+. In other cases, we're in the prime time for them to start.

And... I saw barb spears in every attempt. This I don't like at all!

Here are the screen shots asked for (some combined).

Our Northern Lands + Masonry set as research (not resized) :


Our Sorthern Lands + Meditation set as research +.... (not resized):


The few tiles revealed by Toto when escaping the barb archer :


The F6 screen with our next few techs checked :


And finally, the "Info" tab on the F4 screen : everyone has switched to Slavery, so the North and East witches must have switched very early :


So about this warrior, my suggestion is to stay close to him until he moves to a flat tile, then attack him (92.7% odds)

Also, if I'm not mistaken, the oasis tile N of Washington is NOT fogbusted, should we be worried about that?

Thanks, I'll do an analysis when I can. Don't mind that barb warrior, he's gonna attack the Archer and die or walk away and do some fogbusting for us.

Ok, all 3 AI teams have Masonry but only 1 has Meditation.

According to the spreadsheet, that should allow us to get Masonry on t62 without working the lake at all, even if no one has Priesthood. I'll run a quick test to make sure it is so.

That'd be great : the consequence would be a 1 turn earlier worker, and that is always good

Btw, Gandhi is the one who built Stonehenge. Dunno if that information is of any use, but just so you'd know...

Test ran: we fall 1 beaker short. My formulas aren't exact, I will modify them later, there is more round-off going on than what I wrote. It's strange though, I ended up with 1 extra beaker in Meditation, the correct amount in PH then 1 less in Masonry

Good news is we'd only need to work the silk tile for 1 turn.
I still need to look into the F6 screen... but a bit later I have some errands.

kossin said:

I think it's possible that all the barbs that could spawn have already spawned - there is a limit on a landmass. With only 5 tiles to move around, we might already have seen what was there.

Click to expand...

Barbarian will spawn in the same rate all through the game. If anything from those 5 tiles, it would be at least an archer. Silver city won't be settled ~T75, so that that warrior can't move further west. If we can go in a safer way of producing another warrior from Boston, why not?

kossin said:

Test ran: we fall 1 beaker short. My formulas aren't exact, I will modify them later, there is more round-off going on than what I wrote. It's strange though, I ended up with 1 extra beaker in Meditation, the correct amount in PH then 1 less in Masonry

Good news is we'd only need to work the silk tile for 1 turn.
I still need to look into the F6 screen... but a bit later I have some errands.

Click to expand...

If that's the case, we can easily do the adjustment in T61 or remain on Deer tile.



TGW being still available is a good news. At least in this game, the wonder date of SH and TGW is no faster than a normal emperor game. I'm pretty sure that we have more than 80% odd of getting Oracle.

Duckweed said:

If that's the case, we can easily do the adjustment in T61 or remain on Deer tile.

Click to expand...

So since there is nothing more to discuss for turns T55-T59 at least, when can I play?
Green lights, people?

Please give me 1-2 hours, I want to try something in test game. A 4th teammate's opinion would be nice but we have to wait a while. I noticed Compromise was on earlier, we can always take his silence for a yes

EDIT: nm, doesn't work. Was wondering if Masonry>Medi>PH would be favorable with beaker overflow but it's the same story, 1 commerce short. In any case, I highly doubt that not at least 1 team wouldn't have PH, but we will see I guess.

In any case, there are 3 different opinions on the Archer's position:

1-1S of sheep (Duckweed)
2-1SE of sheep (Bebekija)
3-on city spot (kossin)

This should be resolved.

1- most fogbusting, no defense, leaves 1 tile for barb city
2- 3 fewer tiles of fogbusting, 50% defense, leaves 1 tile for barb city
3- fewest fogbusting, most defense (100%), barb city can't spawn.

The difference with silver spot is that the 1 tile open in the north is not a great spot for a city whereas the 1 tile by canal has 3 resources in 1st ring, putting it at high risk. Silk city is similar case but I've never seen a barb city spawn on pigs.

Weird...I tried to quote the above post, but it quoted a different post. Edit...oh, I see, the post was edited!

Anyway, yes! My presence and subsequent silence indicates implicit approval. More precisely, it means I don't see anything that makes me object.

Long Live Toto. And may he open a route with the Eastern Witch(es?) and then live even longer.

Great news on no Wall building, though in my test game the Oracle was often built within just a couple turns of the other early wonders.

My impression is that barbarian city will spawn on the best possible spot, which means at least 1 food resource + as many resources as possible. Looking at the map, there must be many other spots (at least the horse/copper spot) better than that spot. Defense should not be an issue here since the archer can go to the city spot 1st (clear view) then to 1S of the Sheep. If there's an archer approaching, it can always retreat to a nearby forest.

My only concern is barb city popping and screwing our plans. Otherwise, 1S of sheep is the best spot by a long shot, even should a spear approach.

So if you're all confident a city won't spring up around there, green light to put Archer 1S of sheep. If not, take the coward's approach

EDIT: 'head' post of thread finally updated with rounds played. Also put the roster in there, players in Skip/Swap (currently Compromise&Snaaty) can let me know when and where they'd like to be placed in the active roster.

for the next set. about the scouting issue:

max. fogbusting for me plz (->duckweed)

...

scouting canal city and later bronze should have high prio also. no barbs there means foreign trade is possible, barbs there means... ...ugh...

kossin said:

My only concern is barb city popping and screwing our plans. Otherwise, 1S of sheep is the best spot by a long shot, even should a spear approach.

So if you're all confident a city won't spring up around there, green light to put Archer 1S of sheep. If not, take the coward's approach

Click to expand...

I can't guarantee, if all better spots are fogbusted by AIs' units at that time, then your worry become true.

@Bebekija

Have you focus the EP on someone? On North witches makes more sense since we have the most EPs on them already.

Since kossin made it clear that we don't need to work on Lake tile for more than 1 turn. I think it's OK that you play to T60.

I have been kind of inactive lately due to RL. I tried to read all your posts but had no time to do any tests or analysis. From me, Bebe has a green light to continue playing and I promise to try to invest more time to the next turnsets.

EDIT: I will not vote for anything which is not explicitly mentioned in any of my previous posts since it would require more time to decide which I cannot afford right now. Sorry for that.

Played till turn 60.

Good news first :


Other good news : still no Oracle, and Ragnar built TGW on T58

Other points of interest :
- Toto is moving Eastwards unharmed, not a lot of forests so he's kinda slow. I thought I had taken a screenshot of it but apparently not and now I'm away from my laptop, so you'll have to decipher the mini-map in the above screenshot to figure out where he's at.
- Asoka (GW East) converted to Organized religion on T60
- The Archer quickly disposed of the barb warrior and is now sentried 1S of sheep (again, I should have a ss of that )
- Research progress :
T56 : Med (50/124)
T57 : Med (94/124)
T59 : PH (58/93)
T60 : See overflow in the research bar in the ss above
- A look at the demographics screen since it's been a while :

- EDIT : EP were focused on North Witches from T55 on (forgot to do it last set )

Matters to be resolved before I can finish this turnset :
- What to build in Boston : Warrior/WB ?
- What to build in NY next turn when the worker is out?

Deity player said:

I have been kind of inactive lately due to RL. I tried to read all your posts but had no time to do any tests or analysis. From me, Bebe has a green light to continue playing and I promise to try to invest more time to the next turnsets.

EDIT: I will not vote for anything which is not explicitly mentioned in any of my previous posts since it would require more time to decide which I cannot afford right now. Sorry for that.

Click to expand...

It's good to hear. At the same time, don't feel pressurized to put this in front of RL. You're currently up next in the current roster so your testing will be important to provide a basis for the next PPP after t62 - note that there might be a few turns' worth of debate Oracle freebie, in any case, I intend to make one

Bebekija said:

Played till turn 60.

Good news first :

Spoiler :

We don't have to work the silk tile !

Other good news : still no Oracle, and Ragnar built TGW on T58

Other points of interest :
- Toto is moving Eastwards unharmed, not a lot of forests so he's kinda slow. I thought I had taken a screenshot of it but apparently not and now I'm away from my laptop, so you'll have to decipher the mini-map in the above screenshot to figure out where he's at.
- Asoka (GW East) converted to Organized religion on T60
- The Archer quickly disposed of the barb warrior and is now sentried 1S of sheep (again, I should have a ss of that )
- Research progress :
T56 : Med (50/124)
T57 : Med (94/124)
T59 : PH (58/93)
T60 : See overflow in the research bar in the ss above
- A look at the demographics screen since it's been a while :

Spoiler :

- EDIT : EP were focused on North Witches from T55 on (forgot to do it last set )

Matters to be resolved before I can finish this turnset :
- What to build in Boston : Warrior/WB ?
- What to build in NY next turn when the worker is out?

Click to expand...

Boston: warrior, let's not take chances with barbs.
NY: either a worker or settler. Duckweed suggested a worker which will help set up the next cities faster but we should double check if worker turns or growth turns are more limiting.
The worker will likely go to the deer to road and camp afterwards.

The north AIs have established a traderoute to us, do they have any resources for trade?
This also means we should clear the path to them if we can.

I'll update the test game... the relevant parts before delving in a few tests.