Mafia Zone I: Two of Four (Mini Game)

choxorn said:

Verarde's name is still spelled wrong, so I'll vote for him.

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OMGUSBMNINFSIWVFY!

Oh My Gosh You Suck Because My Name Is Now Fixed So I Will Vote For You!

Vote: Choxorn

La-de-da.
Vote:General Olaf.

Jarrema said:

They have totally different playing style.
Lenghty analysis, etc. If someone is not active, they will lynch him soon. (it happened to me in one of two games I played there). And active means commenting almost every post of almost every player. In my game, on day three, there was collective demand that every player writes a post with analysis of every other player behavior... They really DO TALK. Probably, it also has something to do with the size of theuir games - 15 people is LARGE for them, normal is 8 or 9
Also, in a majority of games, there is no timeline - the lynch happens when someone gains more than half votes, and then it is night - another reason not to be very fast.

Ok, anyway, vote: Choxorn because you made me write all that stuff

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Maybe it's just that I only play CFC mafia, but that seems like a lot of effort for a Mafia game.

NinjaCow64 said:

Thanks for the tip. If you can link me somewhere where I can get more appropriate setups that would really be appreciated.

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I think mafiascum is really the only site that has a list of setups like that; normally, people just look to the other games if they want to run a similar setup (like the Pick Your Power games on CFC and the org, for example), or just make up their own setup.

choxorn said:

Why do mafiascum games usually have days that last for weeks?

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Why do they still have the same tiny, cookie-cutter crap games they've had for years?

Zack said:

Why do they still have the same tiny, cookie-cutter crap games they've had for years?

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We have NOTW.

And I've looked at some of mafiascum's games. The story elements are either non-existent, or very minimal. It's all about just playing the game. I enjoy mafia for the story parts.

If they want to keep playing the same (what we would consider) mini games with a different title over and over again, that's their choice.

Personally, I much prefer the selection of games CFC/the org has to offer, but those seem to really be the only two sites on the internet (and TWC) that don't play the mafiascum style.

Time for statistics and stuff! Yay!



First, let's look at the setup. There are six possibilities, with each having a 16.7% (1/9) chance of being the setup for this particular game.

• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Doctor
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop, Jailkeeper
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 5 Vanilla Townies, Doctor, Jailkeeper
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Sane Cop
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Jailkeeper
• 1 Mafia Goon, 1 Mafia Role Cop, 6 Vanilla Townies, Doctor

In all setups, 22.2% (2/9) of all players are mafia.



In all setups, 77.7% (7/9) of all players are innocent.


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So, after some calculations, the following numbers indicate the probability of lynching a certain role today, if the lynch candidate is selected at random:

22.2% chance of lynching a mafia


77.7% chance of lynching an innocent

Now time for my vote!



Vote: Turquoiside

Zack said:

I think mafiascum is really the only site that has a list of setups like that; normally, people just look to the other games if they want to run a similar setup (like the Pick Your Power games on CFC and the org, for example), or just make up their own setup.

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Oh.

I'll probably use the PYP setup or something. I would like to tweak it slightly, but I was going to have to start making my own rulesets eventually one day. Thanks for the info.

Vote: Skwink.
Random.

Random Vote: Jarrema. It's interesting how having a lynch today works against the town by making it most likely we'll have a Final 4 instead of a Final 3. And this also means missing a scum today puts us in a very risky position. I'm beginning to see why this type of game had Day Phases that lasted weeks.

Turquoiside said:

Random Vote: Jarrema. It's interesting how having a lynch today works against the town by making it most likely we'll have a Final 4 instead of a Final 3. And this also means missing a scum today puts us in a very risky position. I'm beginning to see why this type of game had Day Phases that lasted weeks.

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Keep in mind that we have a 22% chance of hitting mafia, though. Better than abstaining IMO.

Turquoiside said:

Random Vote: Jarrema. It's interesting how having a lynch today works against the town by making it most likely we'll have a Final 4 instead of a Final 3. And this also means missing a scum today puts us in a very risky position. I'm beginning to see why this type of game had Day Phases that lasted weeks.

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landlubber said:

Keep in mind that we have a 22% chance of hitting mafia, though. Better than abstaining IMO.

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This is where the statistics get tricky.

These statistics suggest that our best move would be to vote No Lynch today (but No Lynch isn't allowed in this game, anyways), but we also have a 22.2% of hitting a mafia, just shooting in the dark randomly. However, if we lynch an innocent today (and assuming the mafia kill someone tonight), those odds only jump to 28.6%, and the odds of hitting a mafia will obviously always be less than 50%. Thus, the town absolutely needs to nail a scumbag either today or tomorrow, or else it will be put into lynch-or-lose (lylo).

Although that shouldn't really be something to worry about; the odds of lynching three townies in a row to start the game is only 33.3% [(7/9) * (5/7) * (3/5)], and that's assuming that the cop doesn't scan a scum or the jailkeeper/doctor don't prevent a nightkill.

Power roles have better odds of targeting scum than the lynch does, as they won't target themselves. For example, if we went into the night with nine players (won't happen, but just bear with me), a power role would have 25% odds of hitting a scum, as opposed to the lynch's 22.2% odds with the same number of people. Not much of an increase, but the difference will become greater as the game goes on.

All in all, if the power roles stay alive for a few nights, the game is the town's to lose.

Vote Tally:

Verarde 2 (choxorn, classical_hero)
Turquoside 2 (General Olaf, Zack)
Choxorn 2 (Jarrema, Verarde)

Landlubber 1 (Skwink)
Jarrema 1 (Turquoside)
Skwink 1 (landlubber)

BTW, if there is a tie then I will use an RNG to decide.

I'm considering finishing the day early as everyone has voted now. Thoughts?

Unvote; Vote: Turquoiside

Now you can.

Verarde said:

Unvote; Vote: Turquoiside

Now you can.

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Poor Turquoiside is turning into the new kill_fire.

Verarde said:

Unvote; Vote: Turquoiside

Now you can.

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Unvote;Vote: Verarde

Unvote, Vote: Verarde

Turq shouldn't be lynched Day 1 twice in a row like this. Even if his name's a female canine to spell out.

Zack said:

Poor Turquoiside is turning into the new kill_fire.

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Kill fire didn't get lynched that often on day 1. He got killed often on night 1.

Unvote Vote:Turquoside Because yes.