All Statistics are Accurate as of May 16, 2014
Back in 2008, I began an effort to catalogue and display all the NESes we've ever had on the CFC Forums. I started this for a number of reasons, first being the fact that there are a number of fascinating premises that never had an NES do them justice. With an appropriate catalog or library of links, these could be observed and perhaps we can do justice to them some day. Second, there exists in the resulting statistics a number of relevant bits of data, which give us a good idea about the status of NESing now and over the years. Since starting this, I've been gradually working on the project, through various forms of employment and school. I'm pleased to say that after nearly three years of working off and on, I've successfully archived and cataloged all NESes we've ever had on these forums. The key component in this has been the use of Microsoft Access for the purposes of data entry. Only during the past few months after a few seizures I suffered in December, I've had an ample amount of free time to complete this endeavor. I'd like to share with you the statistical results that this project has completed. Attached to this post is the raw compiled data, but for those not willing or able to experiment with it, I've provided brief summaries below of the elements I find relevant. I'll post my own conclusions based on this data at another time and possibly another place.
Disclaimer: Unfortunately, due to the various states of mind I've worked on this project, there will inevitably be some errors, but I believe I've eliminated most of them after my revisions. Furthermore, due to incidents on the forums and moderators' personal preferences, some NESes no longer have their updates or even rulesets remaining. On that note, if anyone recalls information about angelscotboi's, Symphony D's, or stalin006's NESes, let me know, so I can fill in any blank spaces in my database. Regardless of these deficiencies, the numbers are fairly correct, though I'll admit I was fairly charitable in what could be defined as an "update" for some NESes.
Total Number of NESes: 1,108
Total Number of Updates: 5,470
Total Number of Posts on Main NES Threads: 441,768
Average Number of Updates per NES: 4.936
Average Number of Posts per NES Main Thread: 398.707
Terrence888 recently put into words the idea of the NES "hump," which is the point in an NES that it becomes a stable, thriving thread. We all know this to be fairly accurate, as NESes that get to a certain point are more likely to continue than an NES that hasn't made it to that point. The question is: where is the actual mathematical curve for the success of an NES. Without further ado, here's the numbers:
Percentage of NESes that Die on Arrival: 25.17%
Percentage of NESes that Die before the Second Update: 39.7%
Percentage of NESes that Die before the Fifth Update: 67.7%
Percentage of NESes that Die before the Tenth Update: 85.8%
Percentage of NESes that Die before the Twentieth Update: 95.5%
Percentage of NESes that Die before the Fortieth Update: 99.1%
Now, according to those numbers, if you get past the Fifth Update in your NES, you've already beaten consider odds. However, we must consider that not all NESes are measured in terms of updates. Therefore, we have to take a look at any "hump" that may exist in terms of post count as well.
Percentage of NESes that do not make it past 20 Posts: 6.1%
Percentage of NESes that do not make it past 100 Posts: 33%
Percentage of NESes that do not make it past 250 Posts: 61%
Percentage of NESes taht do not make it past 500 Posts: 79%
Percentage of NESes that do not make it past 1,000 Posts: 92.2%
Now as an additional caveat, these numbers are all statistics from 2002 to present. The hump may have differed from year to year, but I still feel that these numbers are indictative on their own.
Now here comes the part that causes myself to cringe a bit. There have been many, many moderators over the course of a thousand NESes, though some of us have moderated more than others. One side project I am currently working on is providing statistics of repeat moderators such as myself. As a sample, here's my own statistics, and others can/will be provided upon request:
EQandCivfanatic
Starting Date of First NES: May 15, 2002
Ending Date of Last NES: Still Active
Total Number of NESes: 59
Total Number of Posts in All NESes' Main Threads: 35,250
Total Number of Updates in all NESes: 539
Average Number of Posts per NES Main Thread: 597.46
Average Number of Updates per NES: 9.14
NESing has certainly changed over the years, and with it has come a number of new types of NESes. Some people have claimed that various periods have been more active or inactive than others and this is definitely true. What is not true though is that there is an "NESing" season. Based on all of my entry, there is no particular time of any year that is more active than others. There have been wildly active periods, which are typically followed by slow periods, but never on any reliable schedule or pattern. We'll begin with the number of statistics by year, though remember, that 2012 has only just begun.
2002
# of NESes Begun: 88
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 19,924
# of Updates For Year's NESes: 465
2003
# of NESes Begun: 176
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 38,084
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 1,099
2004
# of NESes Begun: 115
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 41,102
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 690
2005
# of NESes Begun: 112
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 49,687
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 472
2006
# of NESes Begun: 105
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 67,430
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 457
2007
# of NESes Begun: 72
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 47,779
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 466
2008
# of NESes Begun: 104
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 52,180
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 498
2009
# of NESes Begun: 83
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 34,118
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 341
2010
# of NESes Begun: 78
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 26,224
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 249
2011
# of NESes Begun: 61
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 25,549
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 257
2012
# of NESes Begun: 54
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 26,292
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 291
2013
# of NESes Begun: 50
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 9,981
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 149
2014
# of NESes Begun: 10
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 1,681
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 26
Back in 2008, I began an effort to catalogue and display all the NESes we've ever had on the CFC Forums. I started this for a number of reasons, first being the fact that there are a number of fascinating premises that never had an NES do them justice. With an appropriate catalog or library of links, these could be observed and perhaps we can do justice to them some day. Second, there exists in the resulting statistics a number of relevant bits of data, which give us a good idea about the status of NESing now and over the years. Since starting this, I've been gradually working on the project, through various forms of employment and school. I'm pleased to say that after nearly three years of working off and on, I've successfully archived and cataloged all NESes we've ever had on these forums. The key component in this has been the use of Microsoft Access for the purposes of data entry. Only during the past few months after a few seizures I suffered in December, I've had an ample amount of free time to complete this endeavor. I'd like to share with you the statistical results that this project has completed. Attached to this post is the raw compiled data, but for those not willing or able to experiment with it, I've provided brief summaries below of the elements I find relevant. I'll post my own conclusions based on this data at another time and possibly another place.
Disclaimer: Unfortunately, due to the various states of mind I've worked on this project, there will inevitably be some errors, but I believe I've eliminated most of them after my revisions. Furthermore, due to incidents on the forums and moderators' personal preferences, some NESes no longer have their updates or even rulesets remaining. On that note, if anyone recalls information about angelscotboi's, Symphony D's, or stalin006's NESes, let me know, so I can fill in any blank spaces in my database. Regardless of these deficiencies, the numbers are fairly correct, though I'll admit I was fairly charitable in what could be defined as an "update" for some NESes.
The Basic Statistics of NESing
Total Number of NESes: 1,108
Total Number of Updates: 5,470
Total Number of Posts on Main NES Threads: 441,768
Average Number of Updates per NES: 4.936
Average Number of Posts per NES Main Thread: 398.707
The NES "Hump"
Terrence888 recently put into words the idea of the NES "hump," which is the point in an NES that it becomes a stable, thriving thread. We all know this to be fairly accurate, as NESes that get to a certain point are more likely to continue than an NES that hasn't made it to that point. The question is: where is the actual mathematical curve for the success of an NES. Without further ado, here's the numbers:
Percentage of NESes that Die on Arrival: 25.17%
Percentage of NESes that Die before the Second Update: 39.7%
Percentage of NESes that Die before the Fifth Update: 67.7%
Percentage of NESes that Die before the Tenth Update: 85.8%
Percentage of NESes that Die before the Twentieth Update: 95.5%
Percentage of NESes that Die before the Fortieth Update: 99.1%
Now, according to those numbers, if you get past the Fifth Update in your NES, you've already beaten consider odds. However, we must consider that not all NESes are measured in terms of updates. Therefore, we have to take a look at any "hump" that may exist in terms of post count as well.
Percentage of NESes that do not make it past 20 Posts: 6.1%
Percentage of NESes that do not make it past 100 Posts: 33%
Percentage of NESes that do not make it past 250 Posts: 61%
Percentage of NESes taht do not make it past 500 Posts: 79%
Percentage of NESes that do not make it past 1,000 Posts: 92.2%
Now as an additional caveat, these numbers are all statistics from 2002 to present. The hump may have differed from year to year, but I still feel that these numbers are indictative on their own.
Moderator Statistics
Now here comes the part that causes myself to cringe a bit. There have been many, many moderators over the course of a thousand NESes, though some of us have moderated more than others. One side project I am currently working on is providing statistics of repeat moderators such as myself. As a sample, here's my own statistics, and others can/will be provided upon request:
EQandCivfanatic
Starting Date of First NES: May 15, 2002
Ending Date of Last NES: Still Active
Total Number of NESes: 59
Total Number of Posts in All NESes' Main Threads: 35,250
Total Number of Updates in all NESes: 539
Average Number of Posts per NES Main Thread: 597.46
Average Number of Updates per NES: 9.14
NESing Over Time
NESing has certainly changed over the years, and with it has come a number of new types of NESes. Some people have claimed that various periods have been more active or inactive than others and this is definitely true. What is not true though is that there is an "NESing" season. Based on all of my entry, there is no particular time of any year that is more active than others. There have been wildly active periods, which are typically followed by slow periods, but never on any reliable schedule or pattern. We'll begin with the number of statistics by year, though remember, that 2012 has only just begun.
2002
# of NESes Begun: 88
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 19,924
# of Updates For Year's NESes: 465
2003
# of NESes Begun: 176
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 38,084
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 1,099
2004
# of NESes Begun: 115
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 41,102
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 690
2005
# of NESes Begun: 112
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 49,687
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 472
2006
# of NESes Begun: 105
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 67,430
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 457
2007
# of NESes Begun: 72
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 47,779
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 466
2008
# of NESes Begun: 104
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 52,180
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 498
2009
# of NESes Begun: 83
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 34,118
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 341
2010
# of NESes Begun: 78
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 26,224
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 249
2011
# of NESes Begun: 61
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 25,549
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 257
2012
# of NESes Begun: 54
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 26,292
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 291
2013
# of NESes Begun: 50
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 9,981
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 149
2014
# of NESes Begun: 10
# of Posts Attached to Year's NESes: 1,681
# of Updates for Year's NESes: 26