SGOTM 15 - Kakumeika

1100 AD might be the golden date.
Once entering CIV forum in general, I saw a user named Shakabrade posting in the Ducks SGOTM team thread.
He's not belong of that team (yet but may happen as I suspect), so a foreign members commenting is often sign of a team that ended their games.

But as the days will come soon, if there is no updates, that means 1100 AD is the final frontier unless OSS comes with something harder.

T171 is equivalent to 1100 AD on normal speed.

Presently, we are T121. Next vote comes in three (or four I'll check later) turns. Afterwards, that is the last vote, then next election for AP resident. So 20 turns?
Then another 10 turns for next vote. Which means T154-155. And another final vote as long as OSS doesn't beat the Ducks.

I think 43-45 turns is quite good to obtain a golden medal win.

Anyways, we will see. Yes, we'll see.

Instead:

Sun Tzu Wu said:

We can hasten the Resident election to change the RL DV turn #s. If we can ensure there are no resolutions possible on t125 and t126, the Resident Election will occur t127. Or allow a Resolution on t125, and not allow it on t135, will cause the Resident Election to occur on t136. After a Resident Election, there will always be Normal (10 turn) cycle. The latter still allows a chance to win t136, but extends further RL DV options on t147, t148, t149 & t150 or t147, t157, t158 & t159 or t147, t157, t167 & t168. The both options may be more desirable than t136 and t156 without degenerate TAP cycles. The one with options to win t136 and t147 as suggested by DanF5771 would be the best one, assuming we have a good chance of winning turn 147. Even a turn 157 win is almost as good as turn 156, worse case.

Sun Tzu Wu

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Seems like the liberate and beg plan is the best based on what I've read. If we can get a boat and missionaries by ~137 still with this plan then I think we are still on a path to win by T156.

I think we have to get this moving one way or another, so shulec as the active player can make a decision on how we proceed if we still remain divided tomorrow.

bcool said:

Seems like the liberate and beg plan is the best based on what I've read. If we can get a boat and missionaries by ~137 still with this plan then I think we are still on a path to win by T156.

I think we have to get this moving one way or another, so shulec as the active player can make a decision on how we proceed if we still remain divided tomorrow.

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Well, I missed the part of winning at T156 (920 AD), but OSS is not beathing Plastic Ducks, then T166 (1060 AD) is also a legitimate date for gold medal.

Personally from the last 4 pages I read since WastinTime declaration of something wrong with Hatty, I also see liberating city then peace as the only way.

Even with close border, Hatshegawa will DoW us anyway. I don't understand why the corn is the necessary tile for teleportation, but close border doesn't seem to be the solution for now. Perhaps later once the SoD quitted Toku's land. And then, s(he) won't be able to target us for a awhile I think. And she might drop war prep. It happens sometimes when cities are growing too fast. Anyways, DanF knows better than I on that subject.

bcool said:

Seems like the liberate and beg plan is the best based on what I've read. If we can get a boat and missionaries by ~137 still with this plan then I think we are still on a path to win by T156.

I think we have to get this moving one way or another, so shulec as the active player can make a decision on how we proceed if we still remain divided tomorrow.

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I am going to play the end of T121 tonight, and play the beginning of T122 to scout Cyrus's land.

shulec said:

Here is what we need to do:

1. Liberate Gateway City to Hatty.

2. Beg for 10 gold if she will offer it.

• If she says yes, she should declare on Toku the next turn.
• If she doesn't offer gold, offer 1gpt and see if she will offer gold. Repeat this until we get her to offer gold. (If she declares on us we lose nothing. If she accepts and makes peace--priceless.)

If we can't get peace and expect war, we should also consider gifting Hatty Trojan horse.

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This is the plan I will go with.

I will not bribe Hatty to close borders with Toku prior to the beg for two reasons:

• We will have a -1 relation hit with Toku that becomes significant if he makes peace with Liz and turns his attention toward us.
• Testing showed that Hatty will likely declare on Toku if we don't close their borders.

If our bribe for 10 fails, I will trade currency for 50 to Hatty to close borders with Toku.

If we can't get peace with Hatty, I want to close borders with Toku. When he declares, he will be teleported back to his lands. Our settler and southern missionary shoiuld be teleported to Toku's lands, so we shouldn't lose them.

A big question is do we gift Trojan Horse to Hatty and take it back the next turn??
(The only downside is that there is an extremely small chance that Hatty won't declare on us. Is that so bad??? It screws up our stealing of techs from Liz.)

Position
shulec Gift GatewayCity before embargo
Wastin'time Embargo first, gift GatewayCity if needed. Post 2644
bcool Gift Gateway City, no comment on timing of embargo. Post 2662
Kaitzilla Gift GatewayCity before embargo Post 2652
mabraham Gift GatewayCity before embargo Post 2559
Tachywaxon Gift GatewayCity before embargo Post 2663 “but close border doesn't seem to be the solution for now”
Walter_Wolf no comment
STW no comment
DanF no comment

This stands at 4-1 to give GatewayCity gift prior to embargo.

I will play in a little over 2 hours.

shulec said:

If we can't get peace with Hatty, I want to close borders with Toku. When he declares, he will be teleported back to his lands. Our settler and southern missionary shoiuld be teleported to Toku's lands, so we shouldn't lose them.

A big question is do we gift Trojan Horse to Hatty and take it back the next turn??
(The only downside is that there is an extremely small chance that Hatty won't declare on us. Is that so bad??? It screws up our stealing of techs from Liz.)

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I don't want to take any chances by giving away Trojan Horse. We need those Liz tech steals.

shulec said:

[*]Testing showed that Hatty will likely declare on Toku if we don't close their borders.
[/LIST]

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Can you direct me to the post mentioning/testing it? My tests showed the opposite, so I'm confused. And DanF is still unsure of its veracity...

I think I'm going to cry. Even if you think the liberate/peace plan is more likely to succeed, why don't you see that we can try that AFTER the embargo? hatty should not DoW until her SoD gets a chance to regroup.

the main reason to try to prevent the war is to save Gateway City. That's the holy grail, and you all are just surrendering it. I guess I'm beating a dead horse. I'm pretty sure that I've made may point clear. I'm mostly just repeating myself and I'm probably starting to annoy everyone, but I can't for the life of me figure out why I'm the only one that gets it.

Let's take a chance that we can get a boat t127. If that fails, we can always regroup and find another way. We were just one turn away from getting a surprise DoW, but we caught it in time to save Gateway City! At least, I think we are in time to save it.

This is clearly the biggest decision of the game.

Tachywaxon said:

Can you direct me to the post mentioning/testing it? My tests showed the opposite, so I'm confused. And DanF is still unsure of its veracity...

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By the way Tachy, I couldn't use your test game for my tests, it was one turn to late.

This is the post: 2619

See test 7. The same thing happens in Kaitzilla's test game too.

WastinTime said:

I think I'm going to cry. Even if you think the liberate/peace plan is more likely to succeed, why don't you see that we can try that AFTER the embargo? hatty should not DoW until her SoD gets a chance to regroup.

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I have answered this question several times. There is a greater chance that Hatty will declare war on Toku if we don't do the embargo based on my test game and Kaitzilla's.

WastinTime said:

the main reason to try to prevent the war is to save Gateway City. That's the holy grail, and you all are just surrendering it. I guess I'm beating a dead horse. I'm pretty sure that I've made may point clear. I'm mostly just repeating myself and I'm probably starting to annoy everyone, but I can't for the life of me figure out why I'm the only one that gets it.

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It's already gone! We may as well benefit from its loss!

WastinTime said:

I guess I'm beating a dead horse. I'm pretty sure that I've made may point clear. I'm mostly just repeating myself and I'm probably starting to annoy everyone, but I can't for the life of me figure out why I'm the only one that gets it.

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Share your saves where the troops teleport to a site other than that corn! I see no chance of a teleport anywhere else.

I like your outcome best, I think it has absolutely no chance of happening. I get what is at stake, so show me with a save what I am missing!

Just so I am clear, you understand if Hatty teleports to the corn, he is going to declare on us?

shulec said:

By the way Tachy, I couldn't use your test game for my tests, it was one turn to late.

This is the post: 2619

See test 7. The same thing happens in Kaitzilla's test game too.

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Oh my god! That's quite a view. I really should have viewed that test. Justinian was literally DoWing us to retract to Mansa.

But I don't understand why in my test, the SoD (naturally formed by waiting Toku to plot at me while being furious) just goes back not even bothering to attack me.

Now, I'm still confused.

Anyways, I really understand to value of boatGateway city, so my vote returns to a uncertain position.

Sorry, I was out, and I actually have company now, but here's the teleportSuccess save and also the save before asking for embargo in case you want to play around with the map and then trigger the teleport

shulec said:

Just so I am clear, you understand if Hatty teleports to the corn, he is going to declare on us?

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Yes, s(he) will. In my personal test, even being in our culture, the DoW still happens but teleportation occurs then.

EDIT: Looking Wastin's tests...interesting.

Using Shulec's post #2641 about Hatshegawa personal unfogging, it worked! Such a goddamn teleportation even though there was a nearer location for teleportation. That's friggin' insane guys!

EDIT2: Wait a minute. Looking again the said screenshot from mabraham's turnset, with two Hatsegawa scouts, I think it is impossible s(he) didn't uncover both the corn and our borders around T93. *Fiddling more with tests...*

If I take wastin's test and put a Joao spy 1 tile SE of the corn, revealing the tile for Joao, he teleports to the corn.

Here are screenshots from Wastin's, Kaitzilla's and my test games in world builder showing the tiles revealed for the simulated Hatty.



This appears to be the difference in teleportation. mabraham confirmed that Hatty's scouts revealed the corn on T94.

The game is so complicated as hell...

Lookie this example.

I uncovered everything except corn tile. Seems the catapult was not with the rest and entered in our lands, uncovering the corn, which let the rest of the stack teleports to us. Weird...

In my test game, I had Joao and Mansa set to furious with each other. Without the embargo, after the 10 gold beg for peace Joao declared on Mansa the next turn.

I also set them to be pleased with each other, and Joao still declared on Mansa.

I set them to friendly with each other and Joao left Mansa alone, and wandered our territory instead.

WastinTime said:

I think I'm going to cry. Even if you think the liberate/peace plan is more likely to succeed, why don't you see that we can try that AFTER the embargo? hatty should not DoW until her SoD gets a chance to regroup.

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I look at WastinTime's test games of 2675. Joao does not have the vision of our culture that we know Hatse has in the real game, so I worldbuildered that in. If I got Joao to embargo Mansa, then Joao teleported forward to our corn.

• Then if I end turn Joao DOWed us and we lost BridgeTown that turn.
• If I do the lib+beg before end turn, there was no DOW. Joao moved off to SheepTown.

If I didn't do the embargo, Joao teleports east - presumably because the test game is flawed by lack of Mansa-Joao OB. Don't know how to check for inter-AI OB.

In shulec's test game of 2619, doing the embargo is impossible, but that can make it an acceptable test of that case. Justinian has vision of our culture.

• If I do not lib or beg, Justinian DOWs us, and we lose Pataliputra 3 turns into the war.
• If I lib+beg, Justinian DOWs Mansa.

So from the above, there was no way to retain Gateway City. An embargo required subsequent lib+beg to reach an acceptable outcome. No embargo required lib+beg to reach an acceptable outcome. No embargo was a better outcome because if Hatse DOWs Toku, she is distracted and we gain time to perhaps get a boat out from the corn city, or organize a force to attack her by surprise, or just to pre-position for her possible T131 DOW. Even if she does not DOW Toku, we still buy useful time.

WastinTime said:

the main reason to try to prevent the war is to save Gateway City. That's the holy grail, and you all are just surrendering it. I guess I'm beating a dead horse. I'm pretty sure that I've made may point clear. I'm mostly just repeating myself and I'm probably starting to annoy everyone, but I can't for the life of me figure out why I'm the only one that gets it.

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I've said I think it's already dead. We can't keep it and avoid a war with Hatse. We lost it when we settled it in ignorance of Hatse's war plans. There's a test game out there that has a similar 1-pop no-defence city that gets taken shortly into the war. If we had evidence that a city similar to Gateway city could survive a DOW then we'd be all ears.

WastinTime said:

Let's take a chance that we can get a boat t127. If that fails, we can always regroup and find another way. We were just one turn away from getting a surprise DoW, but we caught it in time to save Gateway City! At least, I think we are in time to save it.

This is clearly the biggest decision of the game.

Click to expand...

It's very important. We'd love to save Gateway City. But I have seen no evidence that we can do it.

Conclusion:
lib+beg and no embargo seems the best way to maximize our outcome