SGOTM 16 - U'nu'sual S'us'pec'ts

OK, off we go. Apologies for the delay, but I was planning on tonight and not last night, and then I had to fight with Steam and BUFFY for a while. I moved the warrior and discovered clams - and more plains. Unfortunately, to use them in the starting city, we'd have to build on top of the hill and lose the corn - and it would delay us two turns. I don't think it's worth it.



Here are some other screenshots. No surprises as far as I can tell. Who wants to start analyzing the demographics to figure out who our potential opponents are?

Demographics

Victory

Settings

By the way, feel free to download the save and do some fog gazing. I don't think you need my save to see what is possible for our potential starting city sites. I'm unable to upload a 4000BC save to the server. If you really want a copy of my save file for fog gazing, PM me your email address and I'll send it to you.

Where should we build our city? SIP, 1SE, or somewhere else?

Interesting, there are a lot of brown squares. Cities are only going to grow if they have food resources.

After a little fog gazing, here are my guesses. Positions are relative to the settler

2N1E - Plains
2N - PH
2N1W- forested riverside plains
2W1N- riverside plains
2W - riverside grass
2W1S- flood plain
2S1W- forested riverside plains hill

Thoughts
- the fish is the best tile we can see
- moving to the coast loses us mostly plains squares, plus one FP.
- moving to the coast loses riverside status
- this will not be a long term beuro capital, regardless of where we settle
- SIP means that we need 3 cities to claim the 3 food resources
- coastal cap gives a lot of options and flexibility

Coastal City - pop 4
- works Fish, Corn & 2 hill mines. 13 fpt, 8 hpt, 11 gpt. (5 surplus fpt)

SIP - pop 4
- works Corn, FP farm, 2 hill mines. 12 fpt, 8 hpt, 10 gpt (4 surplus fpt)

SIP - pop 4
- works Corn, FP cottage, 2 hill mines. 11 fpt, 8 hpt, 11 gpt (3 surplus fpt)

Re: Demographics

Archer = 3,000
Skirmisher = 4,000
Bowman = 4,000

Emperor AI start with:
Archery = 6,000
Hunting = 2,000

Additional techs that boost soldiers:
Mining = 2,000
The Wheel = 4,000

The absolute minimum power of Emperor AI is 14,000.

UU Archer:
Malinese = 22,000 (Mining AND The Wheel)
Babylonian = 20,000 (The Wheel)

AI's starting with Mining only (at 16,000):
Carthiginian
Chinese
English
Ethiopian
German
Indian
Khmer
Korean
Maya
Portugese
Roman
Russian

AI's starting with The Wheel only (at 18,000):
Arabian
Byzantine
Egyptian
French
Japanese
Mongolian
Ottoman
Sumerian

The Rest of the AI have a power rating of 14,000

The demographics gives the rival maximum of 18,000 and a worst of 14,000.

So therefore, Mansa Musa and Hammurabi are not in the game.

Also, the rival average gives us 16,333. This means that excluding the one best and one worst, the total soldiers of the remaining four AI is 66,000.

When we control our variables using some trial and error, we can figure out the possible power ratings of the different AI.

Possible solutions (for the four other AI):
No AI that do not start with Mining or the Wheel, one AI starting with The Wheel, three AI starting with Mining.
One AI that does not start with Mining or The Wheel, one AI starting with Mining and two AI starting with The Wheel.


I think I may have over-read it into this just a tiny bit

But make what you guys will of it, I'm sure you guys know which the HoF staff love to use often, etc...

Edit again:
So our AI combinations can be:
1 AI that dos not start with Mining or The Wheel, 2 AI starting with The Wheel, 3 AI starting with Mining.
2 AI that do not start with Mining or The Wheel, 1 AI starting with Mining, 3 AI starting with The Wheel.

Obviously, it's a bit harder to predict our AI for the ones it is one or two AI's starting with certain techs (ie which one's don't start with any of the two techs) but if there are 3 AI starting with Mining, chances are that we will be able to predict at least one or two of them or the same if three start with The wheel.


Re: Settling
Oh, and I think we should go coastal for Cap. I vote we first move the settler 2E. If there is something up there that will be in the BFC, settling 2E seems good. If there are just more plains tiles (or even tundra) go 1S after going 2E and settle. Plus, late in the game, this can be our coastal production with Moai. Considering there are (at least) 2 food sources, each water tiles maintains itself, there is plenty of food for it to grow and even work plains workshops later on for it to be production heavy.

CS - great first move!
Revent - wow - that is some analysis of the starting AI

I agree with neilmeister that SIP does not have the tiles necessary to be a great research cap.

Is the assumption with going coastal that GLH will be used for early research?

Is the thought then to move the capital afterwards to a cottage/river location for later game?

Great analysis Revent and neilmeister.

I posted a new (different than the previous) test game save file.

To get the discussion really rolling, here's a Pre-Play Plan. (If you haven't done this before, please read the Team Rules for information about the 7 major parts of a turnset, including the Pre-Play Plan.)

1. Technologies: Fishing -> Mining -> Bronze Working

Fishing gets us workboats and allows Sailing for Great Lighthouse. Mining lets us mine the grass hill. Bronze Working gets us chops (and whips? discuss slavery prior to next turnset). Our worker will have plenty to do and won't be stuck building roads for lack of work.

2. Dealing with AIs: Stop and consult with team if we meet an AI.

3. City placement: Found Paris 1SE of settler (2W of fish, 2S of corn).

I agree with Neil that this is the best location for a fast start and early research. I also think we should leverage our Industrial trait to build the Great Lighthouse and possibly also the Oracle. We can move the capital later in the game to support Bureaucracy.

4. General micro:

Paris: Worker -> workboat (see spreadsheet for details of tile usage.)

Warrior 1: Explore in a large clockwise circle around Paris.
Worker 1: Farm corn, mine hill, build road, ready for chop on Bronze Working

Edit: Worker first is clearly better than warrior first, which I originally posted. Worker first generates more hammers, more development, more population, at the cost of delaying the second explorer warrior by 20 turns

Does anyone think worker (partial) -> workboat -> worker (finish) would be better?

5. Civics and religion: N/A

6. War: N/A

7. Bigger picture: Aiming for fast growth, chops, and taking advantage of our Industrial trait via Great Lighthouse (and Oracle?)

Potential stopping points are 3200 BC turn 20 (even 20 turn set) or 2800 BC turn 30 (bronze working discovered, hope we find copper!, workboat complete).

Please comment, criticize, suggest, whatever. Feedback is important. I have a thick skin - I'd rather find out what is wrong with the plan or what we can do better than play a suboptimal turnset.

Thanks guys! I'm not even sure how much of a help it was though :$
But I guess if we meet some AI, by process of elimination, I guess we can expect who to meet afterwards.

I'm not sure about where to settle though. I'm not sold on 1SE. I still think we should move the settler 2E first. If there is anything good north of the settler in the BFC, settle there otherwise move 1S from that position and settle. The city still gets built on turn 2 and we save a forest and a grassland tile.

2E has 5 forests, 1 hill, 2 riverside, and 6 water. It also has 5 unknown tiles, all appear to be land, and of those, 3 appear to be unforested plains. Delaying settling an extra turn on the chance that 2 unknown tiles will be attractive doesn't seem like a good option to me.

1SE has 8 forests, 2 hills, 6 riverside, and 4 water.

Fair enough. Sold

ChrisShaffer said:

1. Technologies: Fishing -> Mining -> Bronze Working - Agreed

2. Dealing with AIs: Stop and consult with team if we meet an AI.

3. City placement: Found Paris 1SE of settler (2W of fish, 2S of corn). - Agreed

4. General micro: Paris: Worker -> workboat

Warrior 1: Explore in a large clockwise circle around Paris.
Worker 1: Farm corn, mine hill, build road, ready for chop on Bronze Working

Agreed - Worker first is best under nearly all circumstances, and its a no-brainer when we have Corn and a Grass Hill in the BFC

5. Civics and religion: N/A

6. War: N/A

7. Bigger picture: Aiming for fast growth, chops, and taking advantage of our Industrial trait via Great Lighthouse (and Oracle?) - Agreed

Potential stopping points are 3200 BC turn 20 (even 20 turn set) or 2800 BC turn 30 (bronze working discovered, hope we find copper!, workboat complete).

Click to expand...

Looking good.
Play 30 turns, it makes more sense than 20.

ChrisShaffer said:

Great analysis Revent and neilmeister.

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Agreed. That analysis of the demo screen was great, Revent.

I posted a new (different than the previous) test game save file.

Click to expand...

Thanks very much, Chris.

1. Technologies: Fishing -> Mining -> Bronze Working

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Agreed.

3. City placement: Found Paris 1SE of settler (2W of fish, 2S of corn).

I agree with Neil that this is the best location for a fast start and early research. I also think we should leverage our Industrial trait to build the Great Lighthouse and possibly also the Oracle. We can move the capital later in the game to support Bureaucracy.

Click to expand...

Agree with this plan

4. General micro:

Paris: Worker -> workboat (see spreadsheet for details of tile usage.)

Warrior 1: Explore in a large clockwise circle around Paris.
Worker 1: Farm corn, mine hill, build road, ready for chop on Bronze Working

Edit: Worker first is clearly better than warrior first, which I originally posted. Worker first generates more hammers, more development, more population, at the cost of delaying the second explorer warrior by 20 turns

Does anyone think worker (partial) -> workboat -> worker (finish) would be better?

Click to expand...

I generally partially build a worker and switch to a WB if the worker won't have much to do. With corn to farm, and hill to mine, and starting with The Wheel, worker first sounds like a good plan. I will go over your micro plan in the spreadsheet and see how worker (partial) -> workboat -> worker (finish) plays out.

Potential stopping points are 3200 BC turn 20 (even 20 turn set) or 2800 BC turn 30 (bronze working discovered, hope we find copper!, workboat complete).

Click to expand...

I agree with neilmeister that 30 turns seems like a good stopping point, unless you discover something unexpected.... Like all our opponents being Tokugawa.

Trystero said:

...unless you discover something unexpected.... Like all our opponents being Tokugawa.

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Oh, that was so funny, I had a great laugh at all the teams reactions.... but I hope we don't find any similarly nasty surprises.

I have had a bit of a test, and played it out until BW. I tried the 3 scenarios:

1- Worker first, farm corn then mine hill. (just like the micro plan)
2- Worker first, mine hill then farm corn.
3- WB first (partial worker), farm corn.

All three had about the same tech outcome (not surprising as 90% of our gold comes from palace & city tile) and all were pop 3. Scenario's 1 & 2 were similiar, but 1 got the settler out a turn earlier, as well as having a bit more food in the granary.

edit: I modified the micro a little to get a free road built.

I tried worker first (partial) > WB > finish worker. The micro is on "Partial Worker" tab on the spreadsheet.

I liked this because we can work the fish earlier and the increased commerce gets us BW 2 turns earlier on turn 29.

Edit: x-post with neilmeister.

Edit2: save attached.

Guys, great job on putting up the spreadsheet BTW.
Now when I am having a lazy sunday and don't have anything to do, I can test my brains out.

I modified the micro again (on the worker-corn first scenario) to work the PHF at pop 3, it gets the WB out 1 turn earlier, which speeds up the settler by a turn.

edit: x-posts, yes the WB first is best for research, but we are nowhere with basic infra and the settler we want at pop 3 is still a while coming. I like that you picked up on the roading micro in your tab

neilmeister said:

edit: x-posts, yes the WB first is best for research, but we are nowhere with basic infra and the settler we want at pop 3 is still a while coming. I like that you picked up on the roading micro in your tab

Click to expand...

I was reminded of the road micro by watching Sullla's recent Let's Play with the Dutch on YouTube.

SteelHorse said:

Is the assumption with going coastal that GLH will be used for early research?

Is the thought then to move the capital afterwards to a cottage/river location for later game?

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Yes & probably yes.

Hey all,

1) Good to see the game up and running! Remember to take a screenie of the demographics after turn 3 so we can see any border pops -- if there are any creative civs in the game.

2) What are the plans for the warrior's scouting. Are we going to be very particular looking under every stone at the beginning (my preferred) or try to uncover as many tiles as possible.

3) I hate to be this guy, but does anyone have any tips on getting BUFFY to work. I got a new machine a while ago and found civ 4 complete on sale so bought that. It's installed in C:/program files (x86)/2k games/Civilization IV Complete/. Buffy installed without a problem, but when I load the mod I get the annoying "Warning -- the HOF MOd will be unable to save settings. Games played will not be valid for submission. Please use a user account with admin access. etc etc etc." I think I've done all the permission fixes and everything, but am still having problems. Before bugging the forums I thought I'd bug you and see if I was missing something obvious.

Benginal said:

Hey all,

1) Good to see the game up and running! Remember to take a screenie of the demographics after turn 3 so we can see any border pops -- if there are any creative civs in the game.

2) What are the plans for the warrior's scouting. Are we going to be very particular looking under every stone at the beginning (my preferred) or try to uncover as many tiles as possible.

3) I hate to be this guy, but does anyone have any tips on getting BUFFY to work. I got a new machine a while ago and found civ 4 complete on sale so bought that. It's installed in C:/program files (x86)/2k games/Civilization IV Complete/. Buffy installed without a problem, but when I load the mod I get the annoying "Warning -- the HOF MOd will be unable to save settings. Games played will not be valid for submission. Please use a user account with admin access. etc etc etc." I think I've done all the permission fixes and everything, but am still having problems. Before bugging the forums I thought I'd bug you and see if I was missing something obvious.

Click to expand...

Yes! Good idea on the turn 3 screenshot! Also one next turn should give an indication of coastal AI's if any. If there are none, GLH can be delayed a bit more I guess meaning we could research oracle techs as well if need be. Turn 3 screenshot could help with process of elimination as well


Re 3: Try this.

Benginal said:

Remember to take a screenie of the demographics after turn 3 so we can see any border pops -- if there are any creative civs in the game.

Click to expand...

Will do, and same for turn 4. I make a manual save at the end of every turn - partly because I'm afraid of crashes running Civ4 on Steam on Windows 7 using VMWare Fusion on a Mac; and partly so we can go back and check stuff like this later if desired. Anyone who wants access to my Dropbox folder for saves and such should PM me their email address.

Benginal said:

What are the plans for the warrior's scouting. Are we going to be very particular looking under every stone at the beginning (my preferred) or try to uncover as many tiles as possible.

Click to expand...

The priority for warrior scouting is identifying good spots for our second and third cities. I will scout in a clockwise circle that avoids spaces that will be revealed by the second Paris border pop. I will try to balance revealing as much territory as possible with avoiding animals with leaving very few spaces that will require another unit to check out later. OK?