Without chopping the forest, Lyons has to whip at size 4 and there's not much better thing to do at that time. It would be good if you can look into it deeply. 3F is better than 1F2C, but considering the situation of Orleans, it might be different. Maybe it's better to whip when Orleans grows to size 6.
SGOTM 16 - Plastic Ducks
- Thread starter AlanH
- Start date
Without chopping the forest, Lyons has to whip at size 4 and there's not much better thing to do at that time. It would be good if you can look into it deeply. 3F is better than 1F2C, but considering the situation of Orleans, it might be different. Maybe it's better to whip when Orleans grows to size 6.
Granary whip turn --- food comparatively at turns 88 and 95 -- extra commerce?
85 --- 0, 0 --- 0
86 --- -2, -2 --- +2
87 --- -4, -5 --- +1
88 --- -5, -6 --- +1
So in Lyons it's -2F+2C at best case which is a bad trade-off.
Orleans grows on turn 87.
Horses -> cottage is +1F-3H+2C (and 25% output so 15->17.5b)
Deer -> cottage is -1F+3C (18.75b)
1)If we whip now, Orleans uses 2 turns on the cottage. (Lyons +2F-2C)
2)If we whip next turn, Orleans uses 1 turn on the cottage. (Lyons assumed neutral 0F0C)
1a = 2F(+1b)
1b = 2F(+1.5b)
1c = 1F
2a = 0.5F(+0.5b)
2b = 0.5F(+0.75b)
2c = 0F
I'll leave it here for others to pick!
85 --- 0, 0 --- 0
86 --- -2, -2 --- +2
87 --- -4, -5 --- +1
88 --- -5, -6 --- +1
So in Lyons it's -2F+2C at best case which is a bad trade-off.
Orleans grows on turn 87.
Horses -> cottage is +1F-3H+2C (and 25% output so 15->17.5b)
Deer -> cottage is -1F+3C (18.75b)
1)If we whip now, Orleans uses 2 turns on the cottage. (Lyons +2F-2C)
a)Horse -> +2F-6H+4C + (2F-2C) = +4F-6H+2C (+1b)
b)Deer -> -2F+6C + (2F-2C) = +4C (+1.5b)
c)Do nothing -> +2F-2C
b)Deer -> -2F+6C + (2F-2C) = +4C (+1.5b)
c)Do nothing -> +2F-2C
2)If we whip next turn, Orleans uses 1 turn on the cottage. (Lyons assumed neutral 0F0C)
a)Horse -> +1F-3H+2C + (0F0C) = +1F-3H+2C (+0.5b)
b)Deer -> -1F+3C + (0F0C) = -1F+3C (+0.75b)
c)Do nothing -> 0F0C
Which option is best? Allowing 1F=2H=2Cb)Deer -> -1F+3C + (0F0C) = -1F+3C (+0.75b)
c)Do nothing -> 0F0C
1a = 2F(+1b)
1b = 2F(+1.5b)
1c = 1F
2a = 0.5F(+0.5b)
2b = 0.5F(+0.75b)
2c = 0F
I'll leave it here for others to pick!
There are 2 thing that you did not take into consideration.
1. The extra yield from 1 more pop, which come from the FP cottage/Horse/Deer.
2. The chance that the extra commerce could speedup Currency by 1 turn.
As I told already, granary gives 3F, which IS better than any of the FP cottage/Horse/Deer. However, whether the extra commerce turn into some bigger (1 turn earlier currency) needs test. When there's chance of getting bigger advantage by sacrificing smaller advantage at the moment, we should take the chance.
It's not a big deal, I'm fine with whipping immediately. Could you play now?
1. The extra yield from 1 more pop, which come from the FP cottage/Horse/Deer.
2. The chance that the extra commerce could speedup Currency by 1 turn.
As I told already, granary gives 3F, which IS better than any of the FP cottage/Horse/Deer. However, whether the extra commerce turn into some bigger (1 turn earlier currency) needs test. When there's chance of getting bigger advantage by sacrificing smaller advantage at the moment, we should take the chance.
It's not a big deal, I'm fine with whipping immediately. Could you play now?
Judging the extra populations is difficult as it's a long-term study. Whipping now gives more food in Lyons (more commerce long-term) and if we move the horse to the cottage, Orleans gains 2F as well. There is a loss of 6H however which could delay the workboat 1 turn (this is kinda important).
I'll try to get a few turns done but I'd check if the wb is delayed first.
I'll try to get a few turns done but I'd check if the wb is delayed first.
Yes!!
The wb is not delayed (20H vs 26H). Adding in the missing 4H would delay growth by 1 turn and also delay the settler.. not worth it.
So, whip now and horse --> cottage from Lyons = more food and slightly more beakers overall. I'll start around midnight.
The wb is not delayed (20H vs 26H). Adding in the missing 4H would delay growth by 1 turn and also delay the settler.. not worth it.
So, whip now and horse --> cottage from Lyons = more food and slightly more beakers overall. I'll start around midnight.
shakabrade
Praise Vivec!
My home turned into hostel+gourmet somehow so I couldn't ignore my guests (I could, actually, but was forbidden by my wife).
Please tell me we'll whip settler in Orleans and settle that desert island.
Also, WB from Orleans can explore NW while Lyons can provide WB for desert island.
Regarding all those calculations about a whip and tiles worked, why don't we stick to food is always better because you'll grow faster somewhere in the future, unless we can get one turn on good tech by emphasizing beakers. If we can theoretically get one turn earlier University/observatory whip in future 30
city, 1F which grows you 1T faster can be as much as 7.5 beakers. But maybe not cause we can't make such long term estimations (even mid-term). If we could easily put numbers to every action we do we'd have nothing to vote for because bigger number would always be better. Voting in the end means we rely on our feeling (just like we do when we usually play).
If you don't agree with me and still want a vote, I vote for most food. Also, while we consider effect of one whip in Lyons, we can see not whipping gives most food, but if we considered 2-3 whips, all those numbers would be much different. So my thought on that is, if that city will be whipped much (it will with that food surplus), faster granary will pay for itself (it can still be produced in optimal time so no food and hammers are wasted).
This is my opinion and I welcome you to change my mind. I was never too much into micro, so, maybe, I am just slacking a bit. However, I feel we are losing time (and an interest cause it is hard to follow) on microing to this extent, time we'll need to manage huge empire and to wage wars. As I have gathered, Ducks always win with grand strategy, and in long game like this, strategy has even greater impact.
^There are many cases that 1F<1H/C. For instance, when you build your 1st WB for a fish net, do you work on a 3F1C tile or 3H tile? When you could finish a critical wonder 1 turn earlier, do you choose hammer tiles over food tiles?
Food will convert to hammers and/or commerce through faster growth(i.e. citizen who can work on tile which produce hammers/commerce) or whipping. One important thing is to remember is that it's a delayed advantage and with cost of higher maintenance(faster growth) or whipping angers. How much 1F will give? It also depends on the time left to victory, city size and how fast it can grow.
Taking a simplified example. If a city with granary need 15F to grow, then in 15 turns, this city will obtain the benefit of 1 turn of an extra citizen, which might give ~2C depends on what tile to work. Then it might need 20+ turns to see another chance since city will need more food to grow in bigger size. Keep in mind, 1C now is bigger than 1C 15 turns later.
It's hard to determine whether the advantage now or in the future comes ahead. As I mentioned, delaying whip of granary in Lyons gives more commerce, which might or might not lead to earlier Currency. In the positive case, it's definitely a better move. It's better that we can find out the answer through test. If we don't have time, then my choice is always for taking the chance of getting something better. The only thing that I don't won't to risk is safety, that's why you have seen that I emphasized archery in deity game and despised who were whining for unlucky RNG.
Grand strategy gives much more benefit than micro. However, there are only a few of them and micro happens every turn and everywhere. As I mentioned to you previously, there were examples that better micros beat better grand strategies. Those tedious math number might look complicated and boring for most players, honestly, they are almost like intuition in my play and I usually only need 1 or a few tests to produce a satisfied result.
Food will convert to hammers and/or commerce through faster growth(i.e. citizen who can work on tile which produce hammers/commerce) or whipping. One important thing is to remember is that it's a delayed advantage and with cost of higher maintenance(faster growth) or whipping angers. How much 1F will give? It also depends on the time left to victory, city size and how fast it can grow.
Taking a simplified example. If a city with granary need 15F to grow, then in 15 turns, this city will obtain the benefit of 1 turn of an extra citizen, which might give ~2C depends on what tile to work. Then it might need 20+ turns to see another chance since city will need more food to grow in bigger size. Keep in mind, 1C now is bigger than 1C 15 turns later.
It's hard to determine whether the advantage now or in the future comes ahead. As I mentioned, delaying whip of granary in Lyons gives more commerce, which might or might not lead to earlier Currency. In the positive case, it's definitely a better move. It's better that we can find out the answer through test. If we don't have time, then my choice is always for taking the chance of getting something better. The only thing that I don't won't to risk is safety, that's why you have seen that I emphasized archery in deity game and despised who were whining for unlucky RNG.
Grand strategy gives much more benefit than micro. However, there are only a few of them and micro happens every turn and everywhere. As I mentioned to you previously, there were examples that better micros beat better grand strategies. Those tedious math number might look complicated and boring for most players, honestly, they are almost like intuition in my play and I usually only need 1 or a few tests to produce a satisfied result.
My home turned into hostel+gourmet somehow so I couldn't ignore my guests (I could, actually, but was forbidden by my wife).
Please tell me we'll whip settler in Orleans and settle that desert island.
Also, WB from Orleans can explore NW while Lyons can provide WB for desert island.
Regarding all those calculations about a whip and tiles worked, why don't we stick to food is always better because you'll grow faster somewhere in the future, unless we can get one turn on good tech by emphasizing beakers. If we can theoretically get one turn earlier University/observatory whip in future 30
easily put numbers to every action we do we'd have nothing to vote for because bigger number would always be better. Voting in the end means we rely on our feeling (just like we do when we usually play).
If you don't agree with me and still want a vote, I vote for most food. Also, while we consider effect of one whip in Lyons, we can see not whipping gives most food, but if we considered 2-3 whips, all those numbers would be much different. So my thought on that is, if that city will be whipped much (it will with that food surplus), faster granary will pay for itself (it can still be produced in optimal time so no food and hammers are wasted).
This is my opinion and I welcome you to change my mind. I was never too much into micro, so, maybe, I am just slacking a bit. However, I feel we are losing time (and an interest cause it is hard to follow) on microing to this extent, time we'll need to manage huge empire and to wage wars. As I have gathered, Ducks always win with grand strategy, and in long game like this, strategy has even greater impact.
Yes, Orleans settler is going to the island. I paused here to determine the timing of whip (right now plan was to grow then whip on t89), galley movement (turn back now or scout slightly more) and such as you said.
Since my previous tests included running 2 scientists in Orleans through Currency, it's difficult to tell whether Currency could be sped up/delayed with variations without spending 1 hour of testing which I did not have... the quick calculations (10 minutes at most) provided an idea of the process.
If we wind up 1~3b short of Currency, I'll take the blame
shakabrade
Praise Vivec!
I have convinced myself micro can still save us some time in the future. However, I wouldn't like we go OSS style here with long and tiresome end game turn sets ruining all the good we did before. Maybe I didn't express myself totally clear on this issue, but I think you are catching my drift.
I'm very clear on this.
We will soon enter the period with simplified PPP, where we are going to skip the detail worker movements and tile management. You might notice that we have never went OSS style, the major goal of detailed PPP in early stage is to secure some critical wonders and found a solid empire.On the other hand, I'm also worried about our progress in the last few weeks, hope you could catch up with some paces in your set.
shakabrade
Praise Vivec!
Yes, Orleans settler is going to the island. I paused here to determine the timing of whip (right now plan was to grow then whip on t89), galley movement (turn back now or scout slightly more) and such as you said.
Whip on T89 seems fine and doesn't compromise T100 Currency (earliest possible in my tests), and turn galley back. Settler can walk a bit south and then load on galley 2W of incense. Galley can use 4 turns to explore and then has to come back to Orleans if we find any island NW worth settling and if we want to whip a settler there on T100 or T101.
Since my previous tests included running 2 scientists in Orleans through Currency, it's difficult to tell whether Currency could be sped up/delayed with variations without spending 1 hour of testing which I did not have... the quick calculations (10 minutes at most) provided an idea of the process.
If we wind up 1~3b short of Currency, I'll take the blame
As long as we don't whip those scientists away, T100 Currency is secured. That means we should postpone another settler from Orleans (settler after clam/fish settler), for T101.
If we manage to scre* something up, we can always work some coast and things like that.
Edit:
I have provided a simple a bit commerce oriented test save. You should subtract 15
from Aqueduct in Paris. (I forgot to build warrior for Rheims there so I just world buildered it). Another WB was built in Orleans so it could explore north. We could send our galley there if we find some seafood islands and Rheims can then produce settlers. I didn't use galley to explore barb island but note it has at least 4T to do so.
shakabrade
Praise Vivec!
I'm very clear on this.
On the other hand, I'm also worried about our progress in the last few weeks, hope you could catch up with some paces in your set.
I am eager to play some civ. Even with micro stuff.
Can't believe some simple testing managed to put a smile on my face.
