SGOTM 16 - Kakumeika

WastinTime said:

I'm on board with this. Votes please.

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Well, in theory trading Currency to Ramesses for Aesthetics or something else will get us -1 with Brennus, which should be countered T131 from shared civics. That means we can trade for his Calendar on T135 (if he really finishes in 9 turns) and start doing heavy trading with Ramesses after. Or we can give Brennus some tech gift for another +1 if there is some kind of freak -2 hit trading Currency with Ramesses.

Sure, I'd say go for it. If it goes badly we can make another spy in Paris next. Should always have two spies for when the open borders go down to scout and cause mayham.

steal now.

slowly catching up the last 24 hours events.

WastinTime said:

I'm on board with this. Votes please.

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I vote go for it (praying for some iron in our lands).

Here are the begging for gold mechanics from Silu and an instantiation. Frankly, I don't understand how he got the numbers from the equation, so I don't konw how to use this. What I do see, though, is that Brennus will turn us down outright because his Power is greater than 1.33 times ours.

Silu said:

Begging mechanics for non-vassal deals:

Maximum amount that is accepted is

(TURNS_KNOWN + 50) * 2 * (OUR_POWER / THEIR_POWER), further multiplied by 3 if that AI is our land target.

Note that this remembers earlier gifts granted, so if this formula gives a value of 1000, and we already have begged 700 during the game, the max gift value granted is only 300. Again, the value of gold is GOLD*2, or GOLD*3 if the AI is in financial trouble. Beakers are approx BEAKERS*1.5.

Also it's very important to note that the beg is refused outright if they haven't forgot all the former begs (successful and unsuccessful). AIs have a 5% chance of forgetting one beg each turn. So, the optimal begging rotation regarding this is a somewhat complicated optimization problem. Once upon a time I did simulations to find out the best beg interval regarding just this forgetting mechanic, results are here.


Surprisingly, demands (for Civs below Pleased) work exactly the same, except they're refused outright if their power is more than 1.33x ours. And of course they give a diplo penalty.

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Silu said:

Begging mechanics for non-vassal deals:

Maximum amount that is accepted is

(TURNS_KNOWN + 50) * 2 * (OUR_POWER / THEIR_POWER), further multiplied by 3 if that AI is our land target.

Note that this remembers earlier gifts granted, so if this formula gives a value of 1000, and we already have begged 700 during the game, the max gift value granted is only 300. Again, the value of gold is GOLD*2, or GOLD*3 if the AI is in financial trouble. Beakers are approx BEAKERS*1.5.

Also it's very important to note that the beg is refused outright if they haven't forgot all the former begs (successful and unsuccessful). AIs have a 5% chance of forgetting one beg each turn. So, the optimal begging rotation regarding this is a somewhat complicated optimization problem. Once upon a time I did simulations to find out the best beg interval regarding just this forgetting mechanic, results are here.


Surprisingly, demands (for Civs below Pleased) work exactly the same, except they're refused outright if their power is more than 1.33x ours. And of course they give a diplo penalty.

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Silu said:

Estimated safe values to beg, as gold, AI not in financial trouble, as of current turn 157, assuming at least Pleased (further diplo bonuses don't matter):

ZY: 550g
JUSTINIAN: 70g
OTHERS: well under 50g

Okay, seems it isn't quite time to start mass begging yet, except from ZY. Because there's a huge, stochastic cooldown between begs, we should definitely beg from ZY instantly if we can get 150+g unless we want to aim for begging a tech. Should perhaps also beg from Justinian if there's a loose 50g to be had. This isn't an exact science so don't cut these thresholds close. Also all this assuming we have made no successful or unsuccessful begs so far.

And naturally if you beg, also document unsuccessful attempts (yeah I know, I'm kinda repeating myself ) and include the exact amount of a successful beg in a report.

Calculated from this data:

Code:

MET TURNS:

ZY: 3
JUSTINIAN: 59*
ISABELLA: 118*
TOKU: 118*
SALADIN: 125
MEHMED: 128

* = some discrepancy, turnset report not clear

CURRENT TURN: 157

Power ratios:

JUSTINIAN: 0.5
ZY: 0.9

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WastinTime said:

I'm on board with this. Votes please.

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I abstain* but I would like to point out that if we wait for a turn or two, steal IW, then put the other spy in for Calendar, the spy should be at 50% just around when he's scheduled to complete Calendar and we should be able to afford it.

Of course, I'm still thinking that Ramesses is teching Calendar, but as Kaitzilla pointed out, he's fooled us every time so far...

One more point, though, is that Calendar costs quite a bit more, so we gain more by having that spy at 50% than we do by having this one at 50%.

*I prefer for you to decide what works best for your turnset planning.

Resource Trade Plusmods

Turns they have a decay rate:

Silu said:

It does affect it. Linear progression, 10 turns of trading 5 resources equals 50 turns of trading 1 resource. I linked the whole thingy some pages back with the specific formula for resource trade, basically it's 50 turnbonuses per diplo to a max of 2, and decay rate is our # of cities / 4 + 1 turnbonuses.

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Again, I don't quite understand Silu's explanation.

Is that decay rate per turn? ( I assume so.)

Is there decay if we're trading at least one resource?

LowtherCastle said:

Resource Trade Plusmods

Turns they have a decay rate:Again, I don't quite understand Silu's explanation.

Is that decay rate per turn? ( I assume so.)

Is there decay if we're trading at least one resource?

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Not sure how the rate works, but there's no decay if we keep trading something. (Yes, we can get something in return.)

WastinTime said:

I'm on board with this. Votes please.

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Steal now (as I said before)

Tachywaxon said:

EDIT: Unless there is something I don't know on how proceed LC to see city builds, you also need "city investigation values" and "AI espionage amounts on you" to fully make use of those sabotage values.

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All that's needed is the Sabotage Production and Sabotage Buildings values, plus you need to know the cheapest build he has (corresponding to the Sabotage Building value).

1. SabotageBuilding / CheapestBuildingCostinHammers = SabBldgFactor.
2. SabotageProduction / SabBldgFactor = Total hammers in current build.

That's it.

The factor usually doesn't cahnge much from turn to turn. It seems to vary slightly depending on the distance form our capital and other ep factors. In Camulodunum, for example the factor is much different now that we have spread COnfu to it.

Then you can compare that with last turn to figure out hpt. You can look at the city to guess what tiles he's working. YOu can try to figure out if he's building a settler/worker or a regular build or a production-bonus build.

FOr example, in Tolosa, on T126, it's clear he's building a stone-enhanced build and that it has 116h in it. On T125 he had 96h, so it's 20hpt, which is 10base-hpt x 100%stone-multiplier. Tolosa is building Chichen Itsa. Tolosa is probably working 6f, 5f, 2f3h1c, 4h, 2f1h, 1f1hcottage, and another grass tile.

At 20hpt it will be done on T145. Brennus could speed it up by working another mine, with one or two chops, and/or a whip. Assuming no chops, on T137, if Tolosa is pop10, if could 5whip it done on T138. At pop8, it could 4whip on T138 or T139.

Might it not be Hagia Sophia? We gave him Theo on T116 and Code of Laws on T119 to encourage such a choice of stone wonders.

Kaitzilla said:

Might it not be Hagia Sophia? We gave him Theo on T116 and Code of Laws on T119 to encourage such a choice of stone wonders.

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We gave him a choice of wonders, but does this look like stone to you?

Ok, It Chicken Pizza


Nothing that Police State+Theocracy and some dual promo Macemen and Catapults can't handle. Just need a few happy resources first.

Kaitzilla said:

Nothing that Police State+Theocracy and some dual promo Macemen and Catapults can't handle. Just need a few happy resources first.

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Well, if we don't spend our eps on Calendar, how about spreading COnfu there and a city revolt for about 250eps!

I already stated that we should steal Iron Working as soon as our Spies get ~82% odds (that means right now for our 1st Spy). So I'm obviuosly in favor of WastinTime performing the IW steal mission right now and uploading the game.

BTW, I never suggested more than 2 Spies in the same city. Either perform the steal with the first Spy before moving the second Spy (potentially in the same turn) or move the second Spy to the second best city for espionage.

Sun Tzu Wu

From the photodump, it looks like there are 2 double-fish arctic cities, not 1 sorry.



Also, should we concede clams/sugar to Brennus? The barb island settler can still get back down there before Brennus gets there.

It's a strategic spot ensuring trade with Ramesses during a Brennus war, but if we are pretty sure we can take it militarily with ease then we don't have to settle a fairly crappy city there. Mostly it is trade routes and 2gpt that would be severed currently.

I'm working on the goal-oriented PPP. Should be up later this morning. I'll do the IW steal in about an hour unless I hear something.

LowtherCastle said:

We gave him a choice of wonders, but does this look like stone to you?

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What marble isn't stone?

Kaitzilla said:

From the photodump, it looks like there are 2 double-fish arctic cities, not 1 sorry.



Also, should we concede clams/sugar to Brennus? The barb island settler can still get back down there before Brennus gets there.

It's a strategic spot ensuring trade with Ramesses during a Brennus war, but if we are pretty sure we can take it militarily with ease then we don't have to settle a fairly crappy city there. Mostly it is trade routes and 2gpt that would be severed currently.

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I prefer to take the clams/sugar and replace the island settler. It is unlikely for the only iron to be there, but it could be. (Hopefully we will know shortly!)

Turn 126, part 1: Steal IW

Mission success! Spy survives too.

Save uploaded. There's iron everywhere:

WOW

Kaitzilla said:

Also, should we concede clams/sugar to Brennus? The barb island settler can still get back down there before Brennus gets there.

It's a strategic spot ensuring trade with Ramesses during a Brennus war, but if we are pretty sure we can take it militarily with ease then we don't have to settle a fairly crappy city there. Mostly it is trade routes and 2gpt that would be severed currently.

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I'd say let's race against Brennus for the Clams/Sugar/IRON site .