SGOTM 20 - The Shawshank Redemption

LowtherCastle · Jul 24, 2014

@Jastrow

There's a reason a warrior can defeat a tank in CIV, even though that seems ridiculous.

CIV makes two calculations for battles:

the odds of winning a round
the amount of hit point (HP) damage done when you win a round

A warrior actually has decent odds of winning a round against a tank: 3%. The problem is, he only does 7HP damage, while the tank does 54HP damage. So the warrior can only lose one round and has to win 16 rounds to kill the tank. That's what brings the odds of killing the tank down to ~0%.

Similarly our chariot versus the archer. 38% odds of winning a round are pretty good, right? Then why are his odds of killing the archer only 2% (or whatever it is)? The problem is, how much damage per round?

When the archer does 25hp, then exactly 4 rounds is 100HPs and our chariot is dead. When the archer does only 24HP, then our chariot has 4HP remaining after 4 battles, but still gets the same 41% per round. The archer must do 24HP more damage, even though he only really needs 4HP to kill. He's forced to do 120HP damage to kill our chariot.

So the next jump-point is at 20HP, where 5 battles is exactly 100HP. That means giving our chariot promotions that change the archer's HP damage from 24 to 23 or 22 or 21 or 20 doesn't help. They're all the same. They all require 5 hits. What counts is if the promotion moves it down to 19HP because that now requires 6 hits.

So moving from 25HP damage to 24 is called a jump-point and moving from 20 to 19 is a jump-point.

What people often don't understand is that the odds of winning a round don't change a whole lot with a promotion. The difference comes when you get a jump-point.

.

BSPollux · Jul 24, 2014

LowtherCastle said:
@Jastrow

There's a reason a warrior can defeat a tank in CIV, even though that seems ridiculous.

CIV makes two calculations for battles:

the odds of winning a round

the amount of hit point (HP) damage done when you win a round

A warrior actually has decent odds of winning a round against a tank: 3%. The problem is, he only does 7HP damage, while the tank does 54HP damage. So the warrior can only lose one round and has to win 16 rounds to kill the tank. That's what brings the odds of killing the tank down to ~0%.

Similarly our chariot versus the archer. 38% odds of winning a round are pretty good, right? Then why are his odds of killing the archer only 2% (or whatever it is)? The problem is, how much damage per round?

When the archer does 25hp, then exactly 4 rounds is 100HPs and our chariot is dead. When the archer does only 24HP, then our chariot has 4HP remaining after 4 battles, but still gets the same 41% per round. The archer must do 24HP more damage, even though he only really needs 4HP to kill. He's forced to do 120HP damage to kill our chariot.

So the next jump-point is at 20HP, where 5 battles is exactly 100HP. That means giving our chariot promotions that change the archer's HP damage from 24 to 23 or 22 or 21 or 20 doesn't help. They're all the same. They all require 5 hits. What counts is if the promotion moves it down to 19HP because that now requires 6 hits.

So moving from 25HP damage to 24 is called a jump-point and moving from 20 to 19 is a jump-point.

What people often don't understand is that the odds of winning a round don't change a whole lot with a promotion. The difference comes when you get a jump-point.

.

Thank you for that. :goodjob:

Mitchum · Jul 24, 2014

LowtherCastle said:
Clean-up should be trivial and our goal is Istanbul, not building an XP Museum.

Regarding Slavery, now that you mention it I'm not 100% sure if Suleiman is in anarchy this turn or if it was last turn. Does anyone know for 100% sure on this? We do NOT want to mess up the timing and have Suleiman complete one archer/turn for the next 4 turns...

WastinTime · Jul 24, 2014

LowtherCastle said:
Here's another way to view that first battle, if this helps.

The CI chariot gets 41% odds to win each round, including first strike.
The 0 chariot gets 38%. Let's call that 2 in 5 for each.

The CI chariot dies after 5 losses.
The 0 Chariot dies after 4 loses. (Jastrow: That's the jump-point, because the archer does 25HP for each hit.)

Suppose each guy loses to the first strike. Then the 0 chariot has no margin left. Odds are he'll win 2 of 5 but he actually has to win 2 of 4 or he's dead before he gets the 5th chance for the 2nd hit.

The CI chariot still has 4 hits before death, so he has to win 2 of 6, which is actually 2 of 5, since he needs both before the 6th.

Your jumppoint analysis is solid as usual. I was just thinking it'd be nice to save that 17% advantage for a later battle, but as you explained that's foolish. We may not get that big of a jump later. I'm still not convinced about this whole earth is not flat thing, but that's off-topic :rolleyes:

OK, so let's cover some of the obvious. Jastrow:
1) don't forget to take the C1 promo (I've never done that :blush:

)
2) I don't know when the 'cows-chariot' is in your attack plan, but don't forget to pillage the cows first before he attacks.
3) 0% Sailing for just one turn (don't do 2 turns, that's too much cash)

Worker roads the sheep, but we don't even really need that. I'd skip it if there was something better to do. Then what? Road cows? also not necessary. City #3 needs 1 road and we could also road the city site to settle 1 turn early. Twerks could have one more cottage completed. Hmmm. How'd we get so many workers?

Go head and finish that 7th chariot. We will need to protect the new settler/worker.

We're settling copper/sheep/silver (1st ring).
Settlers don't eat food when there is one angry, so grow Twerks to size 6, put 1 turn into a settler, grow to size 7 (2 turns), whip. Settler moves on T57. Could settle as early as T58. Then our workers have plenty to do.

WastinTime · Jul 24, 2014

Mitchum said:
Regarding Slavery, now that you mention it I'm not 100% sure if Suleiman is in anarchy this turn or if it was last turn. Does anyone know for 100% sure on this? We do NOT want to mess up the timing and have Suleiman complete one archer/turn for the next 4 turns...

Yea, he put out a wb on T50, then with anarchy, he could not put out anything this turn (T51). An archer could arrive next turn.

WastinTime · Jul 24, 2014

I see you're working a citizen in Ruins to get the chariot 1 turn faster.
Smart, but if all goes well, delay the chariot and switch to the fish tile (we might get Sailing 1 turn faster).

We could also switch to a wb instead of paying maintenance on that chariot. Or are we commited to getting wbs out of Istanbul?

Mitchum · Jul 24, 2014

WastinTime said:
How'd we get so many workers?

This is how you justify having so few workers... :lol:

Worker tasks are hard to manage. You can keep up with them initially when you have few, close-together cities if you're very diligent and often times, actions come just in time. Then, as cities grow and you REX, you are just starting to fall behind. Tiles are improved one or two turns too late, no biggie.

Then, all of a sudden the wheels come off and you can't keep up. You have too many cities. The cities are too far apart. You want to one-turn a wonder so all workers are chopping and other cities suffer. You learn Calendar and have 10 resources to improve at once. By the end of the game, you did a decent job but you had a lot of citizens working unimproved tiles. You still have plenty of forests around that could have been chopped.

The trick is to have enough workers so that you can keep just ahead of the avalanche of worker actions. Of course, you'll always fall behind when key techs are learned. But in the last game, we worked way to many unimproved tiles and had way to many forests left. We could have used 5+ more workers 50 to 75 turns earlier in the game. Workers can pay for themselves quite quickly.

I think we should have a few more workers this game than we did last game. I don't care if we farm them or build them but lets be sure we have enough.

Mitchum · Jul 24, 2014

WastinTime said:
Smart, but if all goes well, delay the chariot and switch to the fish tile (we might get Sailing 1 turn faster).

I say delay the chariot. If all goes well, we capture Istanbul this turn. If not, we won't be capturing it any time soon whether we finish this chariot or not, right? I'd switch to a WB now...

Although, if we don't capture Istanbul this turn, we'll know it and can then decide whether to finish the chariot or start a WB after the battle.

Regarding the WB from Ruins or Istanbul, I guess LC can tell us that. He had 100% solution to get one out of Ruins but getting one from Istanbul will be a lot easier although a bit delayed...

LowtherCastle · Jul 24, 2014

WastinTime said:
OK, so let's cover some of the obvious. Jastrow:
2) I don't know when the 'cows-chariot' is in your attack plan, but don't forget to pillage the cows first before he attacks.

~~The chariot cannot pillage and attack on the same turn.~~ :nuke:

There will be plenty of time to pillage that cow tile if we decide to. To me, that's still an open question. Where do we build the GLH, Ruins or Istanbul? If Istanbul, we want to capture Edirne and not pillage the cows, imo.

LowtherCastle · Jul 24, 2014

WastinTime said:
How'd we get so many workers?

I assume you're joking, but for the unenlightened peanut gallery, I seem to recall an argument against attacking the Russians and the Romans having to do with a lack of roads. There's a lack of roads going NE to the marble and Stone Glory Land. If we'd had more workers we could have chopped Istanbul-2W to get our chariots there 1t faster. That's the end of page 1 of my 4,309,495,986,984 page list of worker assignments to rapidly get to the domination limit.

Seriously, we're embarking on a no-holds-barred, damn the torpedoes assault of economic mismanagement that's going to make roller coasters feel like SUnday picnics.

WastinTime · Jul 24, 2014

LowtherCastle said:
The chariot cannot pillage and attack on the same turn.

Maybe that's true in a world that is flat. :crazyeye:

But in our world, you can pillage and attack same turn.
I want the money from the pillage.
And I want to steal workers (not worker, workers). Yes, I was joking about workers having nothing important to do. Sorry to make you both spend time lecturing me. I already told ya'all, you can have all the workers you want this game.

We can decide to take Edirne or not after worker steals, but it doesn't affect the fact that we are pillaging those cows this turn.
Um... Please?

LowtherCastle · Jul 24, 2014

Building a test save...tested...once again WastinTime is...

Spoiler :

LowtherCastle · Jul 24, 2014

WastinTime said:
We can decide to take Edirne or not after worker steals, but it doesn't affect the fact that we are pillaging those cows this turn.
Um... Please?

Okay, then we're building the GLH in Ruins. SHould we try for the Oracle in Istanbul? It will counter the French culture and eventually win the crabs back. That also means, imo, that we beeline PH, then Sailing, unless we get a bucketload of capture gold from Istanbul (knock on wood for counting chickens before they hatch). *

By the way, my calcs show that we won't starve when Istanbul comes out of resistance, if we're at peace with Sule on that turn.

*Hm...GLH will be hard to build very fast anywhere...argh.

Mitchum · Jul 24, 2014

Why PH before Sailing? WT already hypothesized that the GLH could go a bit sooner than normal (don't recall why) and the Oracle will go a bit later than normal (due to all religions pre-founded).

Jastrow · Jul 24, 2014

I also tested, and you can pillage first...

Not relevant for now, since you did all the work, but for my education, LtC, could you explain how one gets the percentage win chance per round, and how when gets how many damage points are given for a hit.

OK, going in...

Wish us luck....

WastinTime · Jul 24, 2014

Good luck, go slow, and keep us in the loop.

WastinTime · Jul 24, 2014

definitely switch off the chariot for now in Ruins. I'm starting to plan GLH there. We don't want to overflow the chariot so much that it goes to wealth instead of hammers.
Choose Library (or wb)

Jastrow · Jul 24, 2014

(*#&(*&%&%*#@*)(%#(*%)(

I SUCK at war, and even the RNG know it! *&^*&^*&#^^*

First, I pillages the pasture... 5 gc... Yeah!

Then.... I attacked with a promoted chariot...

As LtC said, it took 5 hits from the archer to kill it, which is exactly what the archer did... It simply hit it 5 times in a row... *(&(&^$$^%$^

I guess we shoud stop now, take a deep breath, and reassess the situation...

Since my play schedule is limited, as expliained previously, for the next 6 days or so, I would suggest to upload, and end my turn here...

Jastrow · Jul 24, 2014

Did I mention?

*&^*&%&^#%$*&#@$^@!(*#@%&%(%*#%!^

WastinTime · Jul 24, 2014

Jastrow said:
Did I mention?

*&^*&%&^#%$*&#@$^@!(*#@%&%(%*#%!^

Don't panic Jastrow. Can you hang in there for the rest of this turn?
I think we need to try again. Anyone disagree?

SGOTM 20 - The Shawshank Redemption

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Deity

Similar threads