SGOTM 21 - Plastic Ducks

Duckweed said:

3 turns are a lot, imagine how much you could save with those micros. There were only few things that could give you 400B, which is a strategical decision, not technical. To emphasize, 3 turns are net gain, which already count the cost, such as the important 150H early hammers.

Edit: Let's take some time to review the cost and value of a GM.

1st, we can only produce a GM after we have CoL, with Oracle, T60, without Oracle T70+. After CoL, if we want a GM early, we need to switch to CS, which greatly hampers the setup of GP farms, especially the island cities have to rely on whipping to produce granary and LH. If we produce the GM until all GP farms are mature, it's worse than a GS, since a GS bulbs Optics instantly, while 100% research slider still needs 4~5 turns to research Optics manually. You also need to count the time needed to travel for trade mission, and usually the next 3 GPs takes less than 10 turns, which means not many turns can be used to take the benefit of 100% slider. Moreover, you have to count the cost of not bulbing Math and not Oracling Currency. Therefore producing the 1st GP as a GM, no matter with any way, is way worse than a GS to bulb Math.

If you still have questions, I'd suggest you to take a look at our playing of SGOTM14 (the commercial situation is more similar as this game with Phi trait, so we produce 7~8 GPs) and SGOTM17(commercial situation is much worse and without Phi trait, so we only produce 4 GSs). Both games had mids, but this game probably not.

Click to expand...

I understand your plan, but I'm trying to compare it to other options. When you put it like that, if correct, the GM idea sounds bad. Maybe it is, but to repeat, let's suppose we use one GS to bulb Optics, 2 GS for Astro and one for Engineering. The question was could we use one or two GM before that and benefit more than from earlier Math and Currency. You've argued that we couldn't, but I don't have that certainty.

It is true though that this map looks odd and we could have some trouble reaching the AI with the hypothetical GM. This could also be true for Willhem, his low land count suggests he's on a small island or between some mountains.

Anyway, assuming that we do follow the path towards Oracle -> Currency, do we have the time to research Sailing right now? It would be good to get to Fur island and also to get that eastern fish sooner rather than later. And when I say it like that, I get to the crux of what's bothering me: suppose that fish spot ends up being one of our GP farms. If we settle the spot 3 turns later in the Oracle -> Currency plan, then it will delay bulbing some tech for 3 turns. And it seems to me we'll lose a lot more in settling time than 3 turns for such spots with the Oracle effort. So how about not building any wonders and just grabbing the land? One could argue that bulbing wouldn't be a bottleneck and that regular research would, but then again one could say that we might compensate with additional GM from earlier GP farm spots.

shakabrade said:

GLH is expensive, yes, but less risky and we need only one unnecessary tech compared to Oracle. So it is less expensive than you originally calculated. It saves us beakers from start and it can be built with cheaper hammers since we'll have Granary in that case to OF at least 3 whips: Lighthouse, settlers or workers, maybe Library.

Click to expand...

If you look at Doshin's T60 save, you'll see that we have 4 cities already and 5th city can be whipped right after Oracle. If we build Oracle in the gem site, tt might be even earlier. Therefore we could have all 4 GP farms setup no later than the case of 15T earlier granary. You have to count how many turns you could pay back the cost of granary itself. Moreover, early granary in capital does not help much due to the happy cap so that it's inefficient to do too many whips, we have to wait for Monarchy, which is another critical tech.

GLH is a weak wonder in this game, as I calculated before, it might offer 600~1200C with T60 GLH, minus its cost of hammers and techs and the delay cost of Math, Currency. The net gain is very little before we capture it. Just to repeat again, the comparison between Oracle and GLH was already proven in SGOTM14.

Regarding the opportunity cost, If we try hard on GLH, then we delay the expansion. Otherwise, GLH also has good chance of failure after T65. There's not much difference of 50% chance from 70% chance. Moreover, considering the failure cost, GLH is more than Oracle, simply because that the more hammers that you invest on a failed wonder, the more you lose.

All the techs to PH are required eventually to research CoL and Aes, so there is no waste, just the cost of delaying other techs such as pottery. LH plus 50H means 110 more earlier hammers compared with Oracle, that's very big difference. Moreover, Only capital has the capacity to build GLH, which causes another serious issue, the pollution of the most important GP farm.

I'm very open to different strategies. My real strength is not proposing the best strategies from beginning, but judgement after considering different arguments. I usually could change mind very fast when I see a good different strategy, such as your proposal of farming the Cow. However, I have been strongly against GLH from the beginning, because even successfully build it, it offers little help to fastest Astronomy.

Edit: The reasons against GLH are almost the same as in SGOTM17. I guess that you were not convinced in that game. I have tried my best to explain, but maybe my expression is still not convincing enough.

Yamps said:

I understand your plan, but I'm trying to compare it to other options. When you put it like that, if correct, the GM idea sounds bad. Maybe it is, but to repeat, let's suppose we use one GS to bulb Optics, 2 GS for Astro and one for Engineering. The question was could we use one or two GM before that and benefit more than from earlier Math and Currency. You've argued that we couldn't, but I don't have that certainty.

It is true though that this map looks odd and we could have some trouble reaching the AI with the hypothetical GM. This could also be true for Willhem, his low land count suggests he's on a small island or between some mountains.

Anyway, assuming that we do follow the path towards Oracle -> Currency, do we have the time to research Sailing right now? It would be good to get to Fur island and also to get that eastern fish sooner rather than later. And when I say it like that, I get to the crux of what's bothering me: suppose that fish spot ends up being one of our GP farms. If we settle the spot 3 turns later in the Oracle -> Currency plan, then it will delay bulbing some tech for 3 turns. And it seems to me we'll lose a lot more in settling time than 3 turns for such spots with the Oracle effort. So how about not building any wonders and just grabbing the land? One could argue that bulbing wouldn't be a bottleneck and that regular research would, but then again one could say that we might compensate with additional GM from earlier GP farm spots.

Click to expand...

I pretty much agree with Doshin's tech path from his Oracle test, so sailing seems a good tech to research after BW.

The settler for 5th city will come from capital again, if we build Oracle in Gem site, there's no delay of the Fish site.

You major point is a GM instead of a GS. As I already explained to you, due to the cost of switching to CS early is too high, the only possible way of producing a GM is when all the GP farms are mature. Assume that we can get the trade mission in time. The usefulness of the GM depends on how much beakers we are lack when all necessary GSs are produced. It might be zero if we could trade enough techs as in SGOTM14 and 17 (mainly construction), or a tech like construction if we have to research it ourselves, which is still less than Math plus forest bonus + currency bonus.

Not building any wonder is better than trying and then losing the Oracle, however, why do we want to ignore the 50% chance of getting a net gain of 400B. It's hard to say the failure cost, mainly from delaying other techs and some worker turns, I guess it's less than 100B.

Duckweed said:

I pretty much agree with Doshin's tech path from his Oracle test, so sailing seems a good tech to research after BW.

The settler for 5th city will come from capital again, if we build Oracle in Gem site, there's no delay of the Fish site.

Click to expand...

Ok, this is key for me. If there are no significant delays in GP farm setup in the Oracle plan when comparing to pure expansion then let's go with that plan.

If we build Oracle in the gem site, tt might be even earlier.

Click to expand...

Didn't consider this.

Convinced.

Last minute chops in Gems city is a good path and w/o GPP pollution in capital. Priesthood is on a way of Monarchy which is another key tech. Capital is unharmed and can chop . Currency is, indeed, a key tech to maintain tech rate.

I'll try to do some tests with 10 AIs to see the date we should aim for.

As I've said, I'm in favor of researching Sailing next so that we can settle the island. A city here will provide +4 per turn compared to any other on the mainland, and I think a Galley would be the best* use of the chops from the two Gems in city #3 (bear in mind that the chops will finish before we can research Pottery or Writing). City #2 will also need a Lighthouse at some stage (+2 with the Crabs and Lake), and we can begin building this when we think that we have enough Warriors.

*In city #3, putting the 2x Gems chops into a Worker will prevent delay growth onto the second improved Gems by two turns. Otherwise, without Sailing, a Workboat would be useful if we want to explore via the coast, but I would prefer to set up our 4th city/GP farm. We do need Warriors, but putting 50 into these from a new city sounds like overkill to me.

A few points:

1. If you look at pictures from the real game, you will see that the Gems city will only have two BFC Forests that can be chopped into the Oracle. Since here is so low, we can only expect to have OF from 1 whip (assuming that, at size 2, the city works 2x Gems, it will need 12 turns to grow onto the Wheat, and then at least 5 turns to fill the food basket while at size 3). Moreover, whipping a Library here ASAP will be a priority to reach Mathematics in good time, so maximizing OF will likely harm our , and therefore the Oracle date.
   
   
2. My no Math bulb, Oracle test was mostly to get a feel for our innate BPT. Several things could be changed. Besides the cities and Galley that you see, our three mainland cities have three Libraries, and Athens built another Worker... so, it would be very easy to build a fifth Settler in Sparta or Athens and found a city near the Corn, allowing 5 Math chops into the Oracle.
   
   
3. Settling a fifth city will slow our tech pace, since we won't be able to run as many Scientists in the city that builds the Settler, and the city itself, once founded, will be an economic drain for at least 3 turns before Mathematics. (Assume 6 when Math is in, with 3 instant chops producing 90 , and then the Workers will need to move to a tile outside the BFC [= 8 ], and then chop 2 more Forests on the third turn.) With The Wheel, the micro here could doubtlessly change.
   
   
4. The benefits of AH vs. TW + Pottery are still to be determined in my mind. Going to Writing via Pottery will be slower, so we will need to test to see whether this impacts the Oracle build date. But TW will make Worker movement more efficient in: (A) moving between cities; (B) connecting the Fur, which will save ~4 Worker turns (due to the tile being on an island) and prevent unhappiness in the capital; (C) completing pre-chops after Mathematics.
   
   
5. Earlier Libraries will provide a greater economic boost than earlier Cottages, especially since we can only expect to work a maximum of 2 Cottages in the capital, if we are running Specialists. Therefore, ignoring TW, the main benefit of going to Pottery will be early Granaries.
   
   
6. There is a lot of resource free land in the newly scouted area (NE of the Gems). Mapmakers, in my experience, don't want barbarians to ruin a SGOTM for any team, so I hope that we will find Copper or Horses within settling distance.

Just some thoughts.

It would be useful if someone could begin to analyze the top Mfg. Goods/Production on the demographics screen. I'll post the demographic screens from my turns later, so we can determine whether one AI is sat on top of a Marble hill, like in SGOTM 19, and production capacity more generally.

Thanks for the confirmation about scouting. I'll play through to Bronze Working later tonight and upload the save.

T25:

There are at least two Lions roaming around in the North:


Although I didn't see it, Shaka's Scout must have killed an animal IBT (T27-28):

Shaka Zulu!
I wonder if he came from the west or the north?

Hopefully Doshin reveals bronze somewhere nearby.

Kaitzilla said:

Shaka Zulu!
I wonder if he came from the west or the north?

Click to expand...

It looks like the west, from the way that his Scout is standing. If that is the case, he must have passed by Sparta before we settled.

Kaitzilla said:

Hopefully Doshin reveals bronze somewhere nearby.

Click to expand...

Nope! That would be too easy.

T30, and Bronze Working (195/195 ):


A visitor:


Animals are now disappearing, as was the fate of one of the two northern Lions:



----

Uploading the save now.

No T30 moves made.

Log:


If Shaka moves his Scout SE in a turn, now that it is virtually healed (0.9/1), we may be able to explore a little sooner with our own Scout.

I haven't revolted to Slavery yet.

I'll post demographic screens (etc.) in the next post.

It would be nice if the next player would take over from me.

Demographics


Aside from this, I didn't see much of interest, but Willem's production is spiking:


I have saves from each turn that I played, so let me know if there are any screens you'd like to see.

FYI, I assigned our to Willem upon meeting Shaka.

Nice job.

Shaka and no copper, looks like the designer want to increase the difficulty a bit. Better than semi-isolated.

Doshin said:

It looks like the west, from the way that his Scout is standing. If that is the case, he must have passed by Sparta before we settled.


Nope! That would be too easy.

T30, and Bronze Working (195/195 ):

Spoiler :

A visitor:

Spoiler :

Animals are now disappearing, as was the fate of one of the two northern Lions:

Spoiler :

----

Uploading the save now.

No T30 moves made.

Click to expand...

Great work Doshin!
20 turns is a lot, and I feel we now have a lot of good options thanks to your efforts.

Looks like Turn 13 Hinduism in our game.
What turn did Buddhism get founded? Or maybe no one discovered it yet?

Player Order:

1) Kaitzilla - Done
2) Doshin - Done
3) Yamps - Up
4) Kossin - On Deck
5) Shakabrade
6) Duckweed
7) Soundjata (Computer Problems)

Nicely done Doshin! I'll have the time tomorrow evening to take a look on the save and to start planning.

Let's start with some questions to consider. I presume we still want Sailing next to settle the Fur island. What then? Do we go straight to Priesthood via Mysticism and Poly and then for Writing, or do we play AH -> Writing? When do we have to hire 2 scientists to time it well with the Oracle?

Since we don't have copper in sight, we have to make some defense considerations as well. At first, it's probably best to build a couple of warriors for spawn busting. The terrain is good for that, with mountains and some natural choke points. Still, at the time when Oracle complets, we'll likely need more for barb protection. If we were to find horses with AH, we'd also have to get the Wheel to connect them and that might be one tech too many in the Oracle -> Currency approach.

In anycase, I think we defenitely want Sailing next because otherwise we'd cause big delays in GP farm setup and that would make the entire Oracle effort rather dubious in my opinion.

Most of the questions rely on tests to answer. Basically, 4 cities, Oracle not in GP farms, and earliest Oracle possible are the goals of tests.

We need to have 3~4 workers. The major puzzle is where are the hammers for Oracle come from. How long do we want to let the 3rd city to work the Wheat?

Kaitzilla said:

Great work Doshin!
20 turns is a lot, and I feel we now have a lot of good options thanks to your efforts.

Looks like Turn 13 Hinduism in our game.
What turn did Buddhism get founded? Or maybe no one discovered it yet?

Click to expand...

In Turn 7, during your turnset.

Yamps said:

Nicely done Doshin! I'll have the time tomorrow evening to take a look on the save and to start planning.

Let's start with some questions to consider. I presume we still want Sailing next to settle the Fur island. What then? Do we go straight to Priesthood via Mysticism and Poly and then for Writing, or do we play AH -> Writing? When do we have to hire 2 scientists to time it well with the Oracle?

AH ---> Writing will boost our , via earlier Libraries, whereas a Priesthood beeline will allow us to invest more in the Oracle before chopping.

Since we don't have copper in sight, we have to make some defense considerations as well. At first, it's probably best to build a couple of warriors for spawn busting. The terrain is good for that, with mountains and some natural choke points. Still, at the time when Oracle complets, we'll likely need more for barb protection. If we were to find horses with AH, we'd also have to get the Wheel to connect them and that might be one tech too many in the Oracle -> Currency approach.

The Horses could be connected to our cities via a river, like the Gems. However, The Wheel is still needed to build Chariots, so we will only save Worker turns if this is the case.

In anycase, I think we defenitely want Sailing next because otherwise we'd cause big delays in GP farm setup and that would make the entire Oracle effort rather dubious in my opinion.

Click to expand...

As short term test goals, see if it is worthwhile to 1-pop whip the next Settler in the capital. This will let us settle city #3 one turn sooner, and we can therefore work a second/third Gems tile 1-turn sooner.

The gain of an earlier third city needs to be set against the loss of the Grassland Mine in the capital (+2 +1 per turn).

I think City #3 will need to work the Wheat for at least 2 turns. The food will go: 6/22 ---> 12/22 ---> 14, 16, 18 (= border pop/chop), 20 (= Galley completes), 0/24F.

With two Workers, the first Gems mine will complete when the city has 12F. The second Gems Forest could be chopped when the city has 18F, and 1 turn can be put into a mine. On the following turn (= 20/22F) one of the two Workers can board a Galley, or both can work on the Gems, so that the city will work the second Gems as soon as it grows to size 2. This latter option will delay city #4 by one turn, and it may be useful to steal the Wheat from the capital for a single turn.

----

@Duckweed

It will be very hard to build the Oracle outside of the capital with our current settling plan. If your idea is to build it in City#3 by delaying the second Gems chop, we will be unable to work this tile for ~20 turns (it could be improved on T46/7). This will mean the loss of ~120 and a delayed Mathematics. Even with this, there are only three BFC Forests, so we will need to chop 1-2 Forests from outside the BFC to make up for the 60H shortfall. All of this combined involves a lot of sub-optimal play for the wonder.

The second chop is also required to produce a Galley, while the capital builds a Settler. So if we postpone the chop, City #4 will be delayed by 3+ turns (I am not sure how many exactly without testing).

What are your thoughts on building the GLH in the capital after Mathematics is researched? T60 should be easy enough.

The GLH supplies +4 in the capital, which would produce the first two Great People. We are likely to generate 2x Great Scientists, but Great Merchant pollution is not a problem: we could bulb Currency, if we generate a GM with the first (~10% odds) and Metal Casting with the second or third (~30% odds). I consider a Metal Casting bulb equivalent to the Optics bulb, since MC is more useful and arrives earlier in the game.

A third, late game GP could be used for a GA or further bulbing/trade missions.

This will allow us to work the Gems and not worry about Great People pollution. We have also met 2x AI already, so there will be more foreign trade routes than in SGOTM 17.

----

@all

Updated test file attached.

Doshin said:

In Turn 7, during your turnset.

Click to expand...

Doh!
Thanks Doshin!

Doshin said:

@Duckweed

It will be very hard to build the Oracle outside of the capital with our current settling plan. If your idea is to build it in City#3 by delaying the second Gems chop, we will be unable to work this tile for ~20 turns (it could be improved on T46/7). This will mean the loss of ~120 and a delayed Mathematics. Even with this, there are only three BFC Forests, so we will need to chop 1-2 Forests from outside the BFC to make up for the 60H shortfall. All of this combined involves a lot of sub-optimal play for the wonder.

The second chop is also required to produce a Galley, while the capital builds a Settler. So if we postpone the chop, City #4 will be delayed by 3+ turns (I am not sure how many exactly without testing).

Could we try to build Oracle in the Cow site, we could store 60H from 2 whips (2 ways: A. separated 2 whips, 1 more turn to build Oracle B. stacked, the 2nd whip must be a 60H build), plus 2 BFC and 1 more chop outside the culture. It's fine to produce a GPriest in this city for a GA.

What are your thoughts on building the GLH in the capital after Mathematics is researched? T60 should be easy enough.

The GLH supplies +4 in the capital, which would produce the first two Great People. We are likely to generate 2x Great Scientists, but Great Merchant pollution is not a problem: we could bulb Currency, if we generate a GM with the first (~10% odds) and Metal Casting with the second or third (~30% odds). I consider a Metal Casting bulb equivalent to the Optics bulb, since MC is more useful and arrives earlier in the game.

A third, late game GP could be used for a GA or further bulbing/trade missions.

The problem is, what if the 1st GP is a GS if we manual research Math, then we loss the bonus from early Currency. Since usually the best GP farm is set to produce the last or 2nd last GP, if the 3rd GP is a GM, we are delayed a lot. It's not much useful to launch a GA that time. Of course, the major problem is that GLH is a weak wonder if we aim for fastest Astro. Even with more trade route income in this game, the net gain from GLH is much less than Oracle.

This will allow us to work the Gems and not worry about Great People pollution. We have also met 2x AI already, so there will be more foreign trade routes than in SGOTM 17.

Click to expand...

I totally agree with not delaying the 2nd gem as my reply to kossin already, but did not expect that the 3rd city lacks more forests around (even 2 3rd ring forests could do the work), let's give Cow site a test.