Red Dwarf Mafia: The Smeggening [Game Thread - Concluded]

Pouter Pigeon · Sep 8, 2015

@KM: tie votes are decided by a last minute tie breaker round. Not sure if that changes your argument or not.

Personally, vote-analysis is a foreign language to me, I've never really been able to figure it out enough to base my decisions on it, and much prefer looking for reads and tells. Unfortunately, yesterday was pretty sparse in terms of activity, does activity usually drop over the weekend here? If not that changes what I'm looking for.

Either way, I'm going to have to do some re-reading to find suspects before I vote, and I have a bunch of classwork so...we'll see I guess. I might have to just throw my vote on the strongest case I see and call it good. (Might be a good thing anyways since I was pretty damn confident Kennigit was a wolf and didn't think Luizeu was, so that shows how on point I am this game)

Double A · Sep 8, 2015

It *was* Labor Day weekend.

Jarrema · Sep 8, 2015

Al Sipsclar said:
Our late leader suspected Cuthillius on D2.

It is very weak argument. Our late leader was town member, after all, therefore he did not have any significant secret knowledge.
I will say that arguments against you are stronger, Al Sipsclar

Cuthillius · Sep 8, 2015

Al Sipsclar said:
About last night: that was ... amazing. Will you call again? PM me.

Our late leader suspected Cuthillius on D2.

That is terrible reasoning. Watch.

Backwards Logic never actually voted in this game, therefore there aren't any scum.

See?

Internet Flea · Sep 8, 2015

I really should have realized just how scummy Luizeu was.

Him being a wolf also gives me town reads on like ten of my suspects, and very few wolf reads. But there's a couple; the late Takhisis vote suggests Luizeu had allies he was trying not to give reads about, and:

Luizeu said:
Well, something Bladescape said might have put him on the target. He pointed at Chuthilius, Pidgeon and Internet Flea.

I can see Chuthilius being town or mafia. I really can't tell atm.
I could go for a Pidgeon and Internet Flea now. I guess ~~Internet Flea~~ because it was the last person he pointed at.

this separates Cuthilius out from Pouter Pigeon and me, while none of us had votes.

Then from Cuthilius, we have:

Cuthillius said:
I really am curious to hear from Winston. I'd like to hear some reasoning or another behind these accusations.

I could see Luizeu, and people are saying that Sprig is acting like his wolf alter ego.

On the wolf accusation topic, usually from what I've seen in other games, night kills tend to be after the villagers are accusing just villagers, but when they're starting to logically move towards the wolves. So often the targets have been talking about at least one wolf. Either that, or the scum team wants to create chaos, or it's just a really active villager that they think is eventually going to get to them.

For the time being, my vote is going onto Jarrema, as I outlined yesterday.

That having been said, I would like IF's PM to be posted here and for him to explain what on earth that was all about.

Shallow analysis like Double A mentioned Luizeu using, and he's the only person to refer to my PM apart from Luizeu and Takhisis.

Cuthillius said:
I could see Autolycus being scum. Before I got into the whole analysis thing a year or so ago, I used to just play a low-lying quiet scum game. I usually got pretty far, too. Not really provide much of anything, just sort of go with the flow.

How do you feel about Luiz now, Winston?

A question about how people feel about Luizeu. Can't see what prompted it.

Got to go with Cuthilius today.

Zack · Sep 8, 2015

Winston specifically called out Sprig and Luizeu for low activity. I already pointed out that it's interesting he only mentioned those two by name in his post, as there were several other people who were equally quiet at the time. Afterwards, Luizeu started posting more ("how do you feel about Luiz now, Winston?"), which makes the whole thing feel like Winston was trying to push his partner to post more so that when Winston made the later post calling out all the low-posters, hopefully Luizeu wouldn't be there. Notice how there is no discernible ordering system at work here, and Luizeu is listed last, almost as an afterthought.

Luizeu said:
Winston Hughes pointed at me for not participating, but at the same time he doesnt participate much. Is he self-incriminating?

This feels pretty weak, like a distancing tactic rather than genuine suspicion. He doesn't actually articulate whether or not this makes Winston looks bad. If anything, it seems like Luiz is not accusing Winston so much as defending himself (you're a hypocrite so your argument is invalid vs. you're a hypocrite and that makes you suspicious).

I think at least one of Winston and Cuthilius (who Internet Flea makes a good argument for) is partners with Luizeu.

Cuthillius · Sep 8, 2015

Internet Flea said:
I really should have realized just how scummy Luizeu was.

This again? That is a very scummy thing to say.

Him being a wolf also gives me town reads on like ten of my suspects, and very few wolf reads. But there's a couple; the late Takhisis vote suggests Luizeu had allies he was trying not to give reads about, and:

this separates Cuthillius out from Pouter Pigeon and me, while none of us had votes.

I do find it questionable that he found you guys more suspicious than I. It could be a scum play to divert attention on to me, though.

Shallow analysis like Double A mentioned Luizeu using, and he's the only person to refer to my PM apart from Luizeu and Takhisis.

Yes, shallow analysis, because I did the more in depth analysis the day before.

A question about how people feel about Luizeu. Can't see what prompted it.

I was trying to figure out if he was a better target than Jarrema at the time.

Of note: Backwards Logic hadn't posted since Day 1. I don't really see how it would be in the interests of the scum team to kill him over one of the active players. I'm guessing that was either a Vigilante going out on a limb, and figuring at worst town has one fewer inactive player and it might be a wolf lying under the radar, or a neutral kill just picking off outliers. Of course, he could have been a high-power role and been scried as such N1 by the scum team. It just seems a little odd. Why didn't they kill him yesterday if they knew that?

Zack · Sep 8, 2015

With the amount of nightkills, a vigilante wouldn't be surprising. Especially with three that first night plus the daykill on Snerk, I actually find the existence of a vig quite likely.

BSmith1068 · Sep 8, 2015

Double A said:
It *was* Labor Day weekend.

This was certainly my problem

Zack said:
Winston specifically called out Sprig and Luizeu for low activity. I already pointed out that it's interesting he only mentioned those two by name in his post, as there were several other people who were equally quiet at the time. Afterwards, Luizeu started posting more ("how do you feel about Luiz now, Winston?"), which makes the whole thing feel like Winston was trying to push his partner to post more so that when Winston made the later post calling out all the low-posters, hopefully Luizeu wouldn't be there. Notice how there is no discernible ordering system at work here, and Luizeu is listed last, almost as an afterthought.

This feels pretty weak, like a distancing tactic rather than genuine suspicion. He doesn't actually articulate whether or not this makes Winston looks bad. If anything, it seems like Luiz is not accusing Winston so much as defending himself (you're a hypocrite so your argument is invalid vs. you're a hypocrite and that makes you suspicious).

I think at least one of Winston and Cuthilius (who Internet Flea makes a good argument for) is partners with Luizeu.

Ill go along with this and vote: Winston for now.

Cuthillius · Sep 8, 2015

Zack said:
With the amount of nightkills, a vigilante wouldn't be surprising. Especially with three that first night plus the daykill on Snerk, I actually find the existence of a vig quite likely.

I agree on that, just I'm not quite sure about the reasoning of a vig killing BL at this point in the game.

spaceman98 · Sep 8, 2015

Here's the thing:

Why did Luiz vote for Takhisis, rather than Cuth or Jarrema?

In other words, why didn't Luiz try to save himself from the lynch as Jarrema did?

The only explanation I can think of is that one of Cuthillius or Jarrema is Luiz's scumpartner, and Luiz didn't want to incriminate them by voting for their rival, or potentially push them into the lead by voting for them.

Jarrema's last-minute switch to Luiz pushed him into the lead (though confirmed-by-death townie Xym finished it off). However, that could just as easily be bussing.

Cuthillius has contributed more overall, even if his analysis has been rather vague at times.

Regardless, at least one of them is the scum we are looking for.

I find vote: Jarrema's overall record to be more questionable. So I say we lynch him today, and if he flips town, we lynch Cuthillius tomorrow.

I'd also be fine with lynching Cuthillius today, and if he flips town, Jarrema tomorrow.

Zack · Sep 8, 2015

https://www.google.com/search?q=def...6.2207j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8

Zack · Sep 8, 2015

All living players ranked by postcount:

Spoiler :

I want to see everyone get into at least the "Pushing it" tier.

spaceman98 · Sep 8, 2015

49 Majiffy (40) + landlubber (9)

Autolycus · Sep 8, 2015

Beyond those of us in the "I Need more" tier, I'd like to hear some more from Murska. I feel like his eight posts haven't said much more than my three. I'll have more thoughts later.

choxorn · Sep 8, 2015

Autolycus said:
Beyond those of us in the "I Need more" tier, I'd like to hear some more from Murska. I feel like his eight posts haven't said much more than my three. I'll have more thoughts later.

This has to be one of the laziest votes of all time. Voting an semi-active under reason of inactivity while you yourself are inactive, saying you'll say more later, just to make it look like you're saying something.

FoS: Autolycus

Sprig · Sep 8, 2015

Checking in & catching up. Thoughts to follow...

Murska · Sep 8, 2015

Autolycus: What do you want to hear?

I'll vote Cuthillius for now.

Cuthillius · Sep 8, 2015

Murska said:
Autolycus: What do you want to hear?

I'll vote Cuthillius for now.

Why is that?

remake20 · Sep 8, 2015

Okay Jerrema. You're under some pressure and choose, for the most part not to respond to it. Instead, you vote al, whom only I have really tried to hammer. You claim the argument is better against him and, while I agree there is a strong case against him (more on that in a second), no one has made one recently so it's basically out of nowhere.

That being said, I'm still super sketchy on al. I won't forget the Snerk day kill and the fact that he is vaguely begging people to visit him seems pointless to me. If he's town why does he need people to visit him? Especially when he makes it sound like he just had the best date of his life? There has to be some really good reason for town to visit him if it means using a night of their actions.

Zack, you do give a pretty good case against Winston, definitely worth checking in to. Cuth gives me scum vibes too, but I don't feel like there's enough evidence to put him above others today.

Red Dwarf Mafia: The Smeggening [Game Thread - Concluded]

Chieftain

♫We got the guillotine♫

Master Voter

King

Warlord

99% hot gas

King

99% hot gas

Deity

King

Plotting something

99% hot gas

99% hot gas

Plotting something

Emperor

Watermelon Headcrab

めんどくさい

Warlord

King

:)

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