1756-1769.
The remainders of the 1750s and most of the 1760s went by in something shockingly similar to peace, in Europe anyway. Apart from some revolts in France and some strife between Bulgaria and Macedonia, all the wars of the time were colonial ones, or mere border incidents. This gives us a good opportunity to assess the situation as a whole as of then.
The United Kingdom of Britain and Holland was arguably the world's strongest power, and, unarguably, one of the two strongest ones, together with the Kingdom of Spain. However, the 1750s were to be the last time these two would be the ONLY great powers with major overseas colonies. In 1759, Pierre Renard, a French emigre in the Tsar's service, has sailed across the Hyperborean Strait (OTL Bering Strait) and claimed the land on its other side, Alaska, in the name of the Tsar and the Russian government. And six years later, the most ambitious project in the history of the Most Serene Republic has, with generous funding and assistance from the Egyptians who were increasingly becoming Venetian puppets, was finished. The Francesco Grandi Canal, named after the present Doge Francesco Arlusconi who indeed came to be known as "the Great", and quite deservedly at that, was opened. Venice has gained access into the Red Sea; in 1767, Yemen fell to an expeditionary forces, and the Emperor of Ethiopia, using the British distraction elsewhere, signed a much-advertised treaty of friendship with Venice. British leaders at first considered taking punitive action, but this was quickly dismissed - the Spanish were quick to point out that the British signed no treaty with Venice defining the Horn of Africa as a British sphere, so quick that the British realized that very possibly the two Catholic countries would easily find a common language, and instead agreed, magnaminously, to modify the Treaty of Lisbon, including Venice in it with a sphere of influence in the Horn of Africa and Arabia, and the northwestern India where the Venetians were quick to set themselves up in spite of it then being a Spanish sphere; that was a deliberate ploy to play the Spanish and the Venetians off against each other, ofcourse. But regardless, Venice still was much weaker than the other two superpowers, and the bi-polar world continued to exist.
In 1758, in the boldly-declared "city" of Rouge (OTL Winnipeg), an assembly of the leaders of the Metis clans, French refugees (although to be honest most of those were also Metis, only less assimilated culturally) and several Amerind tribes has created the Rouge Confederacy, which encompassed a pretty large, but sparsely-populated area to the northwest from the Great Lakes. The Rougeans have immediately signed an alliance with a Spanish ambassador who just happened to be there at the moment of the creation of this Confederacy. This new state, often reffered to as the Metis Confederacy, has immediately made life worse for the British fur traders, especially the ones that by some horrible, completely unintended accident winded up in the "Spanish" sphere; aside from that, they also created quite serious competition. And in the meantime, despite the warm climate, furs became quite popular among the Spanish elite...
By this time, the Spanish have already established control over the entirety Mississippi, apart from the British eastern bank ofcourse. Much of South America was also consolidated by the Spaniards.
Back in Europe, both Britain and Spain were developing peacefully. King Felipe V of the latter has institued numerous "enlightened" reforms and generally encouraged the arts and sciences, the late reign of his father Jose and much of his own reign were in fact known as the Spanish Renaissance. The Spanish Inquisition, which was being weakened and restrained over time since the coming of Jose I, was finally disbanded, official discrimination against Moriscos and Marranos has ended and the already semi-autonomous province of Portugal was made officially bi-lingual and allowed to incoporate Brazil as well; this was done to quiet down the dissent there, lest the British use the Brazilians against Spain come next war.
The cripple-state of France was barely standing together, and Anglo-Spanish forces had to be commited all too often to keep the monarchy alive. One king, Louis XVIII, has tried to reconcile with the radical circles and adopt liberal "conditions" (as in, the Conditions that are in the basis of the United Kingdom), but, alas, fell out of his window before he could get the process going. His son has interpreted this omen well and decided to forget about his ambitions of independence for... ever.
The Burgundian-dominated German Empire existed, and existed quietly and peacefully. The people were simply too tired of warring. But the nobles, especially the former Electors, never tired of intrigue; plots were prepared to end Emperor Philip. Unfortunately, Emperor Philip was prepared to end plots, and end them he did, by one way or another. Friedrich Wilhelm II of Brandenburg, however, never tired. His realm was the least threatened of all the German realms by Burgundy, and he already received some assurances of one or another form of assistance by Poland. Philip I had no proof of that particular conspiracy, but was pretty sure that he could not count on Brandeburg if war came. In 1762, a secret agreement between Burgundy-Bavaria and Russia was reached. Poland was a mutual threat, and the two agreed to cooperate. Burgundian specialists and advisors were sent to modernize the Russian army, and the Russians promised to support Burgundy-Bavaria if it is attacked by Poland. The waiting begun. In the meantime, Philip found another ally - the Esterhazies of Hungary and Macedonia were increasingly alienated from Poland, and seeked to dominate the non-Venetian Balkans themselves. The Sobieskys and Friedrich Wilhelm II found another ally for themselves - Sweden (to which the Poles returned Gotland) - but to that, Philip had already found an antidote by the name of Denmark-Norway, the Danes didn't wish for any sort of Swedish strenghthening in Germany.
In Italy, as elsewhere, Venice grew stronger and stronger. Savoy-Provence, Papal States and Spain aside, the Venetian money, soldiers and "agents" dominated Italy, bringing power over it to Venice; but it was clear that the Venetians would not advance further in Italy, not any time soon anyway, as Spain has allied with the Papal States officially and as Venice concentrated on consolidating its Balkan gains.
Meanwhile, in the Balkans themselves, Selim III plotted his revenge (albeit his capital Ankara was not in the Balkans, he visited Constantinople often for plotting sessions in order to avoid making me write a separate sentance about Turkey

), Greek separatists launched an abortive rebellion against Venice, and Bulgars and Macedonians came close to starting a war afew times. And Poland, having removed the somewhat suspicious Kantemirs from power, was now consolidating its power in the Danubean Principalities.
In Russia, Oleg Drevomyslov's star was fading, mostly because he was a rather naive, idealistic man despite his increasingly old age, and did not realize the opportunity he had to get power. Gradually, the radicals that demanded more radical (what a surprise!) moves became disenchanted with him, and the others didn't care too much about him. Only some members of the Tsar's Guard and some of the liberal groups still considered him any authority, although he still did have some respect among the less radical and at the same time less reactionary educated elite. There was one more man for whom his opinion still mattered, though - Tsar Mikhail II, who quite surprisingly befriended the man that made him concede so much power, maintaining a pretty regular correspondence with him. In part this was because they were, in temperament, rather similar, as were they in their naivety. Yet Mikhail II was taught by years of politics, especially in the presence of the Duma, to be more practical and less principled; and his friendship with Drevomyslov, though bilaterally sincere, was at the same time one of the weapons the Tsar had used in his hidden war of intrigue with the Duma. At the same time, the Duma members themselves were clamouring for power. And the people whom they were supposed to represent continued to suffer and to starve... and gradually, their anger begun growing again.
The darkness of the Dark Continent continued to retreat before the colonizers. Venice, as mentioned before, has begun taking over the Horn of Africa, in alliance with Emperor Jesus III of Ethiopia. Spain took over the coastline of Madagascar and expanded along the Congo, while Britain consolidated the southern coast of West Africa. And finally, Egyptian armies seeked fortune here after a defeat in a war with Persia over Syria in 1758. Assisted by Venetian advisors, the Egyptians took over Sudan. And bumped into Ethiopian forces campaigning there...
But that is a tale for later times. Meanwhile, the Persians were busy with problems of their own - Reza Shah was still alive and still working to consolidate his father's empire, but it was simply too large and since 1760 it was paralyzed by rebellions. Thankfully, Reza Shah has inherited some of his father's military vision and ruthlessness, and dealt with the enemies quickly, efficiently... and discouragingly. Persia survived 1766, when the rebellions reached their apogee with the siege of Teheran by Perso-Azeri rebels. But much time was lost, and it was rather weakened by this - the decline of Nadirid Persia has begun.
India was being further infiltrated by Britain, Spain and Venice, the latter basing its new Venetian East Indies Company in Gujarat. Meanwhile, in Delhi, a new neo-Mughal dynasty of Jahan II came to power and regained a few nearby territories. Finally, in the east, Anglo-Chinese strife grew over the ports of Indochina, while the Spaniards begun casting greedy eyes upon Japan.
The stage was set, the pieces were in place. In 1766, Philip I died, and his heir Charles IV of Burgundy and VI of Germany (it was decided by the historians to count the Holy Roman Emperors as direct predecessors of the German ones) inherited all of his father's titles. Alas, he wasn't as skilled a ruler, and preffered to hold banquet after banquet in his new palace in Dijon. Or would have preffered to do it, had he been given any time to rule in peace - his rise to the throne of the German Empire was unrecognized and denounced by Brandenburg and Brunswick alike, and some lesser states; and immediately, they were supported by Swedes and Poles who sent their expeditionary forces. The Five Years War begun. Joachim Colbert rallied and gathered a Burgundian army at Frankfurt am Main, but his German allies kept trying to run away, which slowed his army down. He has defeated a Brunswickian army at Paderborn, but that was merely a feint - the main attack came on Bavaria, where the joint anti-Burgundian forces, assisted by Bavarian separatists, seized Regensburg and marched west along the Danube, spreading chaos and havocc in southern Germany.
For a while it seemed that Burgundy would now be simply crushed, but its allies were still there and still ready. By the end of 1767, having entered the war, Denmark-Norway had destroyed the Swedish fleet at Rugen and raided Uppland and other eastern coastal regions, Hungary had crushed the Poles at Darmanesti in Moldavia and thus firmly cut off the remaining Polish forces in the Danubean Principalities from Poland itself, Macedonia had taken Blagoevgrad and besieged Sofia and Russia's reformed army had stormed into Finland, eliminating all Swedish resistance east of Turku, whereas the Poles were only barely holding out on the line of Riga-Minsk. And the Burgundians themselves defeated the southern army sent against them and almost entirely defeated it, forcing the anti-Burgundian forces to commit all their reserves.
1768 saw the intesification of another conflict - between the United Kingdom and the Qing Chinese Empire. The British had tried to establish an embassy in China, for future usage and to make discussion of the issue of Indochinese ports easier, but the Chinese had consistantly refused, outraging the British opinion at home. That the negotiations didn't advance further and that the Chinese refused to restore the old British priveleges in Burmese ports didn't help neither. Finally, war has started, the British immediately taking initiative by inciting Indochinese rebellions and shelling port cities; HMMs landed in Saigon, Samut Prakan (near Bangkok) and Pegu.
But more on that later. Back in Europe, the Poles and their allies were clearly losing, and badly so. Sweden in particular was taking a horrible battering - Danish-Norwegian forces, having secured Gotland, were now invading Sweden from the land and the sea, while Russians finished off the Swedish resistance in Finland, causing the already-unstable country to be thrown into anarchy as the ever-unpopular (after unsuccesful wars and an economical collapse, plus the ascendance of powerful favourites) Ulrika I was overthrown. Eventually, Russia claimed Finland, and King Harald IV of Denmark-Norway, with the support of some Swedish nobles, revived the Kalmar Union. With the desertion of Swedish troops in Germany, the Burgundians scored another victory, at Nurnberg, putting an end to the Bavarian separatist rebellion and forcing the anti-Burgundian forces to finally move northwards. Russian armies were getting ever-closer to taking Riga and Minsk, albeit here the Poles did better, especially in the south where their aging great general Wlodzimierz Asnyk, with the help of Ukrainean separatists led by Bogdan Ivanovich Mazepa, overran much of Ukraine before the Russians could react properly. Meanwhile, despite some Bulgarian victories around Sofia and at Vidin, Hungaro-Macedonian forces still advanced relentlessly...
When war doesn't work as well as it should, one should either introduce new factors in his favour or remove present factors that damage his cause - both things could be achieved with diplomacy. Jakub Ludwig, the King of Poland, didn't see any way to do the former (at least after a few unsuccesful probes of netural powers), so he did the latter instead - in Lublin, he signed a peace treaty with Hungary, ceding Wallachia and Dobrudjia to it and ending the alliance with Bulgaria, which soon had to agree to sign an alliance with Hungary and "revise" its borders with Macedonia in the latter's favour. As for Denmark-Norway or the Kalmar Union, no formal peace was signed with it, but secretly it was agreed for them not to fight each other; the Danes indeed were beginning to have diplomatic complications with their Russian allies over the issue of Finland, while with Poland they had no real grudges or disputed borders. Some advisors also suggested negotiations with the Burgundians, but Jakub Ludwig was afraid that this would leave them too strong. However, the campaigns there quited down - the northern rebel states were regroupping and preparing defenses, while the Burgundians used this welcome break to rest and raise more troops in preparations for an eventual northern campaign.
The war with Russia, thus, gained primacy. But there, the Russians, having diverted forces from Finland, currently had the initiative. The assault on Riga has failed in part due to the aforementioned complications with Denmark which didn't send a fleet to help the Russians, and Minsk still held, but Asnyk's forces were only barely holding out at Chernigov, while Russian forces once more invaded Yedisan. Polish forces were desperately being diverted to this front, and with them were coming new weapons - state-of-the-art steam-propelled mobile artillery that however proved pretty useless in this particular situation, and, much more importantly, the new boulangers (needle-guns, named after yet another French emigre).
These boulangers turned the tide in 1769, as did the Polish forces that were now concentrated on the Russian front. A new invasion over the Dnieper commenced, Asnyk forced the surrender of Russian forces in Yedisan, Crimean Tartars rose up in rebellion, and Minsk was finally relieved, though Riga was lost. In a masterful campaign, the Poles, assisted by Ukrainean rebels, advanced to Kharkov and Smolensk. Russians launched a desperate counter-offensive, but it was defeated very badly at Vitebsk. And meanwhile, Denmark-Norway switched sides officially and invaded Finland.
These defeats, in combination with the loss of Ukraine to enemy forces and the previous war-time devastation of it, have landed a harsh blow upon Russia's stability and credibility of the Tsar and the Duma. Furthermore, the Tsar and the Duma, especially the merchants, became more hostile than ever, as the Tsar pressed for more money and the Duma pressed for peace negotiations. In an attempt to try and persuade the Duma to increase the war budget, Mikhail II decided to invite its leaders and Oleg Drevomyslov as well, who albeit retired from politics and a has-been was still of some importance. Unsure about the city's safety, Mikhail provided them with Tsar Guard escorts. All the Duma leaders got to Kremlin safely and without incidents.
As for Drevomyslov, in one of the more narrow of Moscow's streets where he and his escorts passed to get to the Kremlin as fast as possible, several shots sounded. Nobody noticed the assassin of Drevomyslov, but as the rumours spread - or WERE spread by certain persons - the masses became convinced that he was killed by one of his escorts upon Tsar's orders. But that didn't really matter, and neither did Drevomyslov. What did matter was that there was now an immediate cause for a rebellion that was brewing in the city for some time now. The Guard mutinied, the people marched out into the streets, someone ran up to the Kremlin just as the Tsar agreed to leave it for the Duma building to continue the discussion there upon the insistance of his enemies who didn't trust him enough and threw a bomb into the last Golitsyn to rule Russia for a long time or maybe forever, and by the end of the day the city was held by various rebel forces, while gunfights ensued in the streets and marauders used the opportunity to get rich quick.
And there were no leaders in sight, at first. Most Duma leaders were either dead, either discredited, either both. The commander of the Tsar's Guard, Mikhail II's brother Kirill, was one of the first to die. But soon after this revolution commenced, two major factions emerged in Russia among the revolutionaries (that in the meantime were taking over the rest of the country) - the
Kitaygorodtsi liberals and the
Belogorodtsi radicals. The two factions were named for Kitay-gorod, the region of Moscow where the liberals and their bourgoise supporters made their headquarters, and Bely Gorod ("White City", hence the other name for the Belogorodtsi - "Whites"), the fortress occupied by radical officers, respectively. They all agreed to form a joint Revolutionary Council in Moscow. The quickly-declared Russian Republic was to fight on, but now - to fight for survival.
This was the end. The Thaw was now over, and west of Russia Reaction has soon returned to absolute power, returned to compensate its long absence, returned to combat and defeat the Phantom of Revolution which was suddenly more visible than ever before, and a thousand times more scarier than when it first appeared in Paris 1684. But... it returned too late, as future would show.
This was the end. But only of the Thaw. The history continued, as did the war.