Symphony D.
Deity
Actually, it's about as bad, if not worse. You are aware the last time something similar happened it reduced the human population to approximately 10,000 people, and almost wiped out our species?
Alternate History Thread III
- Thread starter Luckymoose
- Start date
Source for the specifics? (obviously the climate gets shot, but then I havn't heard anything conclusive on it, heck you could always "fix" the eruption to be a 'mini-eruption', something large enough to have minor climate changes with lots of local damage, and you can do that because of lack of information...)
Disenfrancised
Beep Beep
Yea, but we didn't have 6 billion people back then
You mean six billion dependent on complex and itegrated global agriculture systems based on crop yields and specialist, as opposed to a bunch of self-sufficent hunter-gatherer communities?
You mean six billion dependent on complex and itegrated global agriculture systems based on crop yields and specialist, as opposed to a bunch of self-sufficent hunter-gatherer communities?
surely more an effect of it being bad to everything? As opposed to a failure in one of the complex agricultural systems its a failure in EVERYTHING.
Symphony D.
Deity
Logic.
That was Mount Pinatubo, the largest eruption since Krakatoa. It ejected about ten cubic kilometers (2.5 mile³) of material.Wikipedia said:
Toba, the one that nearly wiped out humanity, ejected approximately 2,800 cubic kilometers of material. The Yellowstone Caldera's past three eruptions have been approximately 2,500 times more powerful than Mount Saint Helens.
In short, it's supposition, but it's not terribly hard to suppose it to be correct. It's also rather conservative in estimation.
They were hunter-gatherers. We are farmers and city-dwellers. If anything, we are vastly more prone to environmental failure and disaster.
mhmm. ( I read on the wiki page (one of them :s) that its hard to make predicitions on the yellowstone case due to the irregular/infrequent eruptions, which is the basis for the following statement, or just use the fact that its a fairly recent and sudden in the geological record, plus time changes things, all thats required is the suppostion that it could change in severity, and your pretty much free to go...)
As mentioned instead of going for full blown yellowstone go for something that changes its severity exploit some of the unknowns.
Symphony D.
Deity
There's a chain of blown-up mountains from the Pacific to Yellowstone from where the hot-spot that fuels the Caldera has left its mark over the past several million years as the continent has drifted over it. It explodes fairly regularly and always fairly violently. Much worse than Krakatoa every time. The only difference now is the continental crust it's under is much thicker, so it might be more difficult for it to errupt these days.
Swissempire
Poet Jester
The Last Tsar of Russia fell to his knees. There was a sharp stabbing pain in his back, and his last thoughts were surprisingly concerned only with who did the act. By the time of his death, it became clear to him that the Dual Societies had achieved victory in this struggle. As his life drained away and pooled around his body, he heard the voice of Pyotr Grigoryevich Kakhovsky cry out to God for forgiveness for Regicide, and for strength to finish his task. With that, Nicholas died, and with him, so did Imperial Russia.
In the Senate Square all the soldiers of St. Petersburg were listening to their Military Governor, Count Mikhail Andreyevich Miloradovich and the man beside him, Prince Sergei Trubetskoy, declare the new Russian Republic. St. Petersburg was firmly in the hands of the mutinous military and the revolutionaries. Coinciding revolts in Poland and all throughout the Southern sections of Russia, led by Society members and Slavic nationals alike. Russia was now without Tsars and with a whole new future ahead of it.
Interim Co-Dictators Miloradovich and Trubetskoy stayed true to their duty and promises, and shortly after the revolt a Pestelian Конституция based upon many of the principles of the Russkaya Pravda. The government was split between the 1 chamber legislative body, the Peoples Veche, the triumvirate executive branch, the Sovereign Duma, and the judicial branch or the Supreme Sober. The only major hold up in thrusting forward this new Russian Republic was what to do with the serfs. The Radicals wanted to release them all, and the Aristocrats would have none of it. This main disagreement almost led to a counter-revolution to appoint a new Tsar until a blast from the past, Mikhail Speransky swept in and mediated the dispute. The finalized constitution still granted considerable rights to the nobility, but extended political rights to all non-Serfs over 20, and set up many of the Societies goals. The Serf Question wasnt entirely solved, and remained a thorn for a while.
On February 17th, 1826, the Republic of All the Russias was declared and elections held.The first Soverign Duma was made up of Count Miloradovich, Hero of the Senate Square, Prince Trubetskoy, Hero of the North, and Pavel Pestel, the Uniter of the Two Societies and the Freer of Russia. A new page of world history had just presented itself.
In the Senate Square all the soldiers of St. Petersburg were listening to their Military Governor, Count Mikhail Andreyevich Miloradovich and the man beside him, Prince Sergei Trubetskoy, declare the new Russian Republic. St. Petersburg was firmly in the hands of the mutinous military and the revolutionaries. Coinciding revolts in Poland and all throughout the Southern sections of Russia, led by Society members and Slavic nationals alike. Russia was now without Tsars and with a whole new future ahead of it.
Interim Co-Dictators Miloradovich and Trubetskoy stayed true to their duty and promises, and shortly after the revolt a Pestelian Конституция based upon many of the principles of the Russkaya Pravda. The government was split between the 1 chamber legislative body, the Peoples Veche, the triumvirate executive branch, the Sovereign Duma, and the judicial branch or the Supreme Sober. The only major hold up in thrusting forward this new Russian Republic was what to do with the serfs. The Radicals wanted to release them all, and the Aristocrats would have none of it. This main disagreement almost led to a counter-revolution to appoint a new Tsar until a blast from the past, Mikhail Speransky swept in and mediated the dispute. The finalized constitution still granted considerable rights to the nobility, but extended political rights to all non-Serfs over 20, and set up many of the Societies goals. The Serf Question wasnt entirely solved, and remained a thorn for a while.
On February 17th, 1826, the Republic of All the Russias was declared and elections held.The first Soverign Duma was made up of Count Miloradovich, Hero of the Senate Square, Prince Trubetskoy, Hero of the North, and Pavel Pestel, the Uniter of the Two Societies and the Freer of Russia. A new page of world history had just presented itself.
das
Regeneration In Process
Interesting, though any sort of peace seems unlikely at the least.
Also, Muravyev-Apostol and Constantine Romanov seem strangely missing here (though I suppose that Pestel is playing a greater part here; perhaps the PoD would be him managing to organise a succesful campaign of assassination against all the Romanovs, as opposed to a single stillborn attempt on Nicholas).
The most unlikely thing here so far is Speransky, who has by now turned around completely and became a conservative to say the least.
Incidentally, the very fact of the Decembrists and especially Pestel getting anywhere at all is likely to have great effect on the Jewish Question as a whole. Zionism is certainly likely to arise much earlier.
Also, Muravyev-Apostol and Constantine Romanov seem strangely missing here (though I suppose that Pestel is playing a greater part here; perhaps the PoD would be him managing to organise a succesful campaign of assassination against all the Romanovs, as opposed to a single stillborn attempt on Nicholas).
The most unlikely thing here so far is Speransky, who has by now turned around completely and became a conservative to say the least.
Incidentally, the very fact of the Decembrists and especially Pestel getting anywhere at all is likely to have great effect on the Jewish Question as a whole. Zionism is certainly likely to arise much earlier.
Swissempire
Poet Jester
To answer your questions:
Pestel managed to get almost everything he tried or wanted to do done. He united the Soceities, he got the Polish to revolt, and he got all the Romanovs killed.
Sergei Muravyev-Apostol plays a good part, i just didn't name him in that short introduction. During the Revolution, he was one of the Great Leaders of the South, since he was involved both with the Slavs and the Societies. He led the Revolt that took control of the Chernihivska guberniya and was a member of the Radicals during the Consititutional Convention. He is now the Namestnik of Chernihivska. Russia is divided into 7 Namestnichestvo and then further divided into Uyezds and Volosts
On Zionism, I have already factored that in, later in the timeline(not that much later though) they get deported. What i'm not sure is too where, since i don;t them inhabiting Israel is going to happen yet. It needs to be somewhere in Central Asia or Asia Minor...?
As for Mikhail Speransky, I don't think he was ever conservative enough that he would not want to see his liberal idea's on reform and on law condified into the consitution. He saw this as an obvious way to ascend back into power, and as the leader of the Supreme Sobor he got that.
das
Regeneration In Process
Why not Israel, really? Its a nice excuse to make life all the worse for the Ottomans. Though the original plan was indeed for Asia Minor.
As I said, he abandoned those ideas after the exile. I think he's a wasted force, anyway.
das
Regeneration In Process
篡.
IC:
"Heaven brings forth innumerable things to help man.
Man has nothing with which to recompense Heaven.
Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill."
- Zhang Xianzhong, an insane Chinese rebel warlord.
The Recap.
As of the 1630s, Ming China was still beset by poverty (both of the people and of the state), corruption, bureaucratic and courtly partisanship and never-ending rebellions, while European, Chinese and Japanese pirates terrorised the coasts and steppe peoples raided further and further into Chinese territory. The Chongzhen Emperor did not give in to the tide of trouble, but rather fought on, ordered new projects, dispatched armies to crush rebellions and purged the court with increasing ferocity. Yet it seemed as if it was for naught, as new rebellions and conspiracies appeared and the military projects and expeditions consumed all the new tax money, which in the end only drove more and more peasants into rebellion.
Still, the beginning of the decade had an unexpected large bright spot; the Later Jin Jurchens, by far the most formidable of the Ming Dynasty's external enemies, were defeated by the brilliant General Yuan Chonghuan's Chinese and Korean troops. The Liaoyang Province was reclaimed, the Later Jin were slaughtered, the Jurchens scattered and soon forced safely beyond the Willow Palisade. The Chongzhen Emperor couldn't but wonder if it was a sign of his dynasty's return to the graces of Heaven, a reward for his efforts in purging the corruption of the court. As for everybody else, they couldn't wonder. They had to believe it; such was Chongzhen's decree. Chongzhen apparently believed it too, and was visibly emboldened...
The Lingering Grind.
Yuan Chonghuan's reforms (continued as he was put in charge of the Board of War) had revitalised elements of the Ming military, at least, while the victories restored the national morale somewhat; also, the treasure liberated from the Later Jin was immediately put to use, as were the newly freed-up forces. Mao Wenling soon led a veteran Ming army to victory over the assorted rebels (including a Li Zicheng) wandering in Shanxi and Shaanxi, getting governorship over the former and ruling there with an iron fist; his measures took a toll on the agriculture, but as the peasants were spending more time rebelling than working anyway it was probably worth it. Still, rebellions did not cease, and some of the generals, angered by Yuan Chonghuan's reforms and doubtful about the Dynasty's fate, even rebelled themselves or defected to the rebels; as the south was still doing comparatively well and the north was close to the capital and within the experienced northeastern army's reach, the centre and the west became particularily troubled. Though a semblance of civility was eventually imposed in the central provinces as well, Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou saw some of the worst fighting in the 1640s. The most colourful and dangerous of the rebel leaders there was the insane ex-bandit Zhang Xianzhong, who had managed to win over many of the aforementioned traitor generals and carved out a short-lived empire for them and himself in the aforementioned three provinces. Using brilliant hit-and-run tactics, he inflicted numerous defeats upon the Ming forces, but was eventually overwhelmed and forced out of his key cities, often with the active support of citizens, whom he terrorised particularily often. Eventually he was betrayed and gruesomly executed, laughing maniacally and struggling all the way through.
The rebellions would not end; smaller peasant warbands were virtually everpresent, urban riots were frequent (especially in the north) and natives won a temporary victory in Yunnan, exploiting its difficult terrain and general unatractiveness. Still, the trully big and threatening rebellions seemed to have been crushed, and Chongzhen had a momentary respite. He and Yuan Chonghuan used it to finish the renovation and repair of the Great Wall (at least in the most vital areas) and to reform the Ming army which was in a sad shape after the decay fest of the 16th century. The greater part of it consisted of conscripts and mercenaries, neither terribly competent nor very loyal. During the Jurchen and Shanxi campaigns, however, the initially-mixed northeastern armies both gained significant experience and were forged into a proper fighting force by Yuan Chonghuan. As desertions, defections, fighting and attrition took their toll on the rest of the Ming armies as well, it became increasingly clear that a new army was needed.. and the "Northeasterners" were to become its nucleus. They were divided into small units and attached to newly-conscripted forces, in order to train and inspire the latter; also, experienced officers were appointed to the army. The reform was halfway in place as of 1647, when Chongzhen suddenly had Yuan Chonghuan executed for conspiring against him, probably at the instigation of the somewhat untactful reformer's many enemies; the Emperor himself seemed to have feared that the army reform was in fact Yuan Chonghuan's ploy to establish even greater control over the military via his followers and then use it in a military coup d'etat. Still, Yuan Chonghuan was buried with all due honours. This did outrage many in the army; not so many amongst the peasants, who had short memories and associated him with the hated Mao Wenling and other hardliner generals and governors appointed since Yuan Chonghuan's promotion. Still, in the end it was just the death of yet another powerful minister, an occurance that had already become commonplace; it did ofcourse hamper the promising reforms, and so cost the Dynasty greatly, but the notion that it actually caused the new wave of rebellions is absurd; the causes were the same as before, plus growing anger over repressive measures and connected excesses.
Anyhow, late 1640s and early 1650s saw a new wave of grand rebellions all over the Empire, with particularily important role played by the shadowy revolutionary Buddhist Cult of the White Lotus (which had once brought the Ming Dynasty to power, but immediately started conflicting with the founding Hongwu Emperor, who naturally couldn't impose their radicalism upon an actual state once he had one), which had yet again resurfaced and launched a series of coordinated rebellions in the cities and in the countryside. Others were the usual peasant uprisings, especially in the north and the west, and the ongoing native rebellion in Yunnan, which now went into a genocide phase. This time, the North was particularily hard-hit, especially after Mao Wenling's most suspicious death (which naturally caused all the hell to break loose in Shanxi). The White Lotus assault on Beijing was repulsed, but the great northern port of Tianjin fell in enemy hands, only to be retaken after a lenghty siege. The White Lotus Cult continued organising uprisings, eventually seizing Chengdu as a new base of operations and trying to elevate a new popular local dynasty there. With the White Lotus attention shifted westwards, the pressure in the north receded somewhat, but there still remained numerous powerful rebel factions there, and at this point a coalition of Jurchens and Chahar Mongols invaded Liaoyang again, retaking some of the northern cities and terrorising the countryside. The South and the East also saw a few uprisings, but dissent in port cities was considerably lowered when trade with Southeast Asia was further liberalised and was allowed with Japan as well (officially in recognition of the heavy-handed Japanese crackdown on Wako raids, in the late 16th century), though in the latter it was only limited to the artificial island Deshima.
Albeit another significant rebel army was rallied by the warlord Yao Wu in 1653, it was broken later in the same year in an epic battle at Deshengmen (one of the great gates of the Beijing city wall). Long story cut short, the other rebels too were more or less crushed over the next two years, and Liaoyang and Yunnan were reclaimed, albeit Mongol and Uighur raids on the western border now intensified. The Chinese countryside was devastated by the never-ending peasant wars, but recovery finally begun, in no small part thanks to the major state subsidies and the beginning of administrative reforms. Things finally seemed to be going well, almost too well, as rebellions mostly quieted down and Chongzhen finally concluded that the court was clean at last. He was planning more and more reforms, was negotiating some trade deals with the Europeans, was building up fortifications on the western border... The realm was serenely quiet.
In 1657, Chongzhen died. Oh, and about that quiet I mentioned? It was the quiet before the storm.
The Time of Troubles.
The death of the great Emperor couldn't but result in some serious shake-ups, if only because Chongzhen had consolidated great power in his hands, especially later in his reign; he was probably the most absolutely powerful of the Ming Emperors since Hongwu. To this we may add that China, albeit recovering and calming down, was still in shambles, poverty and misery were still widespread and any political instability would lead to renewed social chaos as well. And furthermore, all that Chongzhen managed to do was slaughter a lot of corrupt and biased ministers; as for the very problem of courtly and bureaucratic partisanship, it was merely driven into the underground, and the various shadowy factions were merely waiting for the opportunity to strike (it is possible - even likely - that Chongzhen was killed by the most ready or the most desperate of those factions) - and prefferably claim power, though the weaker ones were also content to simply survive. Chongzhen didn't even manage to destroy the bilateral undue meddling between the army and the civil powers; numerous generals had recently risen in prestige and popularity, and gathered support both in the army and at the court (the most prominent of them was General Wu Sangui, the hero of the Battle of Deshengmen), while bureaucrats, eunuchs and princes sought out support in the Beijing garrison and in the newly-reorganised army.
Then there was the specific situation with the succession. Chongzhen did have eight sons, but two of them were already dead, one died soon after his father's death in mysterious circumstances, and the others were too young or too ungifted to be of any serious consequence. After the death of the Emperor's third son, the next in line to succession was Crown Prince Ci Lang; not really all that incompetent, but simply detached from the matters of state and already a puppet of a powerful court clique dominated by the eunuch Liu Gao and the Minister Chang Jiaxuan. With law and most of the Court more or less on his side, Chang Jiaxuan easily assumed power as Prime Minister and begin removing personal opponents, while Liu Gao begun consolidating his own power and influence in the matters of state. Ci Lang was soon declared the "Tianzhen Emperor", and in spite of a few early conspiracies all seemed to be going well for the clique. However, serious opposition came from the military, as Wu Sangui, initially supportive of Ci Lang, was swayed to his side by the energetic, charismatic (although elderly) Prince of Tang, Zhu Yujian. Under house arrest for most of Chongzhen's reign, Zhu Yujian had nonetheless kept himself in touch with the Court and the government, and had made some plans; now that he had the support of the greater part of the reformed military, it could go into motion. A military coup d'etat, assisted by some reformist ministers and paranoid enemies of Liu Gao, had failed, but Zhu Yujian and his family escaped from house arrest and retreated to Nanjing under the escort of Wu Sangui's soldiers, taking advantage of the fact that a new round of rebellions had already started. After the coup's failure, the Prince of Tang and his supporters were at their most vulnerable, but as soon as, thanks to major defections and the governor's sympathy, they had gained a safe base of operations in the Ming Dynasty's auxillary capital, things begun to look up.
Already by 1658 what was a banal struggle for power became a serious civil war between what could well be called the forces of reaction (the corrupt, entrenched Beijing Court and the Tianzhen Emperor) and the forces of revolution[1] (the progressive, mercantilistic, reformist Nanjing Court and the Longwu Emperor/the Prince of Tang); the latter weren't all that radical by nature, but still found their greatest base of support (apart from the military) in the ranks of the maturing Chinese mercantile bourgoise of the great coastal cities; large urban levies soon supplemented Wu Sangui's troops, while the campaign funds were provided by the local merchants in exchange for the self-proclaimed Longwu Emperor keeping the capital in Nanjing and reforming the handling of trade affairs (something that the Longwu Emperor was eager to do anyway, realising just how profitable maritime commerce had already become and how much more profitable it could become the government taps this source of income properly). The religious minorities, especially the Christian converts, were also quick to ally with Longwu; the communities sought protection in this time of troubles, while many individuals, such as Zheng Zhilong, saw this as their best legal opportunity for success. They and the Jesuits provided an important link with the Europeans and the Japanese; and the Longwu Emperor, having heard much of the former's firearms, secured arms deals and hired mercenaries. Lastly, the Longwu Emperor managed to win over many of the discontent peasants over to his side with convincing decrees and promises of reform to satisfy many of their grievances. Basically, he did all that he could to rally the general populace over to his side, and so far it worked - no matter what the long-term effect of promising so much to so many could be. By 1659, eleven provinces had either sworn allegience to the Longwu Emperor or were effectively overran by rebels loyal to him or in alliance to him. However, at the same time, Chang Jiaxuan had defeated yet another major conspiracy against him, consolidated his control over the far north, and secured the support of over a half of the Ming army (including some of those generals who had at first assisted the coup attempt) and of the new Korean king, Hyojong, who had sent an expeditionary corps (the Korean army had undergone some major reforms recently and once more became a serious force). The Nan Ming (Southern Ming, i.e. pro-Longwu) forces weren't doing too well in the initial battles, as the Bei Ming (Northern Ming, i.e. pro-Tianzhen) armies soon overran Henan and captured the great historical city of Kaifeng. Also the Nan Ming notably lacked cohesion and coordination early on, while the Bei Ming were still able to draw on the Board of War to coordinate their efforts and mostly commanded a professional, if not alwasy reliable army, augmented by conscripts. The Nan Ming still had superior quality, though: better weapons and better leaders, and some of the best troops, though as far as training was concerned the main armies of both sides didn't have much of a gap, while the peasant armies of the Nan Ming were definitely inferior to the Bei Ming conscripts in everything but morale.
1660 finally saw some more decisive developments, as the Bei Ming general Shi Dayou exploited the victory at Kaifeng and advanced southwards to the Yangtze; in the meantime, Wu Sangui and the main Nan Ming army marched north to occupy the contested parts of the Jiangsu province, quickly succeeding in that and striking north towards Jinan. Shi Dayou advanced east along the river quickly, threatening Nanjing. They were halted while attempting to cross the Yangtze at Wuhu; the garrison's commander proved surprisingly well-prepared, and deployed the newest Chinese and European cannons, wreaking havoc on the Bei Ming formations and eventually forcing Shi Dayou to pull back. Another Nan Ming army was soon rallied under the command of General Shi Kefa; it forced Shi Dayou to a battle near the Chaohu Lake. The Bei Ming did win that one, but barely and only thanks to their overwhelming numbers and the faulty weather. Aware that Chang Jiaxuan would not tolerate failure and that his own forces no longer had any chances of taking the easily-defensible Nanjing, Shi Dayou nonetheless did not defect to the Nan Ming side neither, and instead went on to become an independent warlord, taking over the province of Henan and slices of surrounding provinces and welcoming defectors from both sides. Similar, but smaller and weaker warlords would soon arise in the west, while the provinces of Hubei, Huguang and Hunan witnessed a peasant war provoked by the Nan Ming delaying reforms and growing taxes.
The main theatre of the civil war itself, thus, was in the northeastern coastal provinces of China Proper. There, Wu Sangui outmaneuvered his enemies by taking the risk of negotiating the Tai Shan mountains to suddenly emerge at Jinan itself, swiftly capturing it and turning around to defeat a Bei Ming army at Liaocheng. Another army was defeated at Baoding in a crucial battle, after which the Nan Ming were theoretically capable of threatening Beijing itself (Baoding being, as the name implied, crucial in the defense of the capital - and thus also a good forward base for an attack on the said capital). At this point, however, casualties, logistical issues and peasant uprisings forced Wu Sangui to stop his campaign for a while. The Bei Ming regroupped their forces, but were also hindered by interfighting as the Tianzhen Emperor suddenly decided to take power in his hands for real and had Liu Gao executed, though Chang Jiaxuan retained power and influence over the Emperor.
1661 went by and the Nan Ming, having by now built up a powerful army and secured their positions in the richest parts of China, concentrated on fighting the rebels and the all-too-daring Shi Dayou (who was finally defeated and killed during the battle for Kaifeng in the August of the year). The Bei Ming marshalled their remaining forces, complete with more Korean reinforcements, and briefly retook Baoding. However, in the winter they were pushed out of it, while the Ming forces, assisted by the Christian ex-pirate Admiral Zheng Zhilong, captured the ports of Tianjin and Sanshan early in 1662. After that, the somewhat anticlimatic and straightforward assault on Beijing occured. The Bei Ming army was decimated with bombardments and retreated into the city to join the garrison, but once there resisted bravely and efficiently, and it was only after several hours of heavy fighting on the walls and in the streets that the Nan Ming forces entered the Forbidden City. The Tianzhen Emperor commited suicide, Chang Jiaxuan was killed when trying to escape the city. Much of the rest of the Court was executed or commited suicide, though some were allowed to join the Nanjing Court instead; those princes in Beijing that weren't too closely associated with the Tianzhen Emperor were spared as well. Thus after a surprisingly quick and easy civil war the Southern Ming, or the Later Ming dynasty[2] had taken power, albeit scattered loyalist forces and leftover peasants and warlords continued creating problems.
Still, now was the time for the planned reforms to go into place and for some promises to be kept. Also, there were some increasingly-apparent changes in the geopolitical situation to adress...
---
[1] Future Social-Rationalist historians would call the whole process "the Great Chinese Bourgoise Revolution".
[2] It is usually considered a different dynasty from the "Northern-Former Ming dynasty" due to different capitals, different policies and different family branch (it is comparable to how the Orleanists are often separated from the Bourbons, I guess; the Western/Eastern-Former/Later Han Dynasty is a far better analogy, ofcourse).
OOC: Many, but not all, of the people in this installment are althistorical; that is faster than it would've been in Europe due to China being meritocratic and in a state of upheaval for most of the time covered (=a lot more is up to chance).
The civil war, especially its beginning, may seem confusing; well, it really WAS (read: would have been) confusing, so deal with it. More importantly, it might seem somewhat unrealistic in some moments, so I'd like to ask our resident "Sinologists" (or rather the "Sinos" themselves
) for some more constructive criticism.
Also, for those of you who aren't 17th century Chinese history buffs: the next installment should cover the earliest global(ish) changes as well (though it still will mostly be Sinocentric; we have a semi-demi-quasi-new dynasty with trully new policies here, people!).
IC:
"Heaven brings forth innumerable things to help man.
Man has nothing with which to recompense Heaven.
Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill."
- Zhang Xianzhong, an insane Chinese rebel warlord.
The Recap.
As of the 1630s, Ming China was still beset by poverty (both of the people and of the state), corruption, bureaucratic and courtly partisanship and never-ending rebellions, while European, Chinese and Japanese pirates terrorised the coasts and steppe peoples raided further and further into Chinese territory. The Chongzhen Emperor did not give in to the tide of trouble, but rather fought on, ordered new projects, dispatched armies to crush rebellions and purged the court with increasing ferocity. Yet it seemed as if it was for naught, as new rebellions and conspiracies appeared and the military projects and expeditions consumed all the new tax money, which in the end only drove more and more peasants into rebellion.
Still, the beginning of the decade had an unexpected large bright spot; the Later Jin Jurchens, by far the most formidable of the Ming Dynasty's external enemies, were defeated by the brilliant General Yuan Chonghuan's Chinese and Korean troops. The Liaoyang Province was reclaimed, the Later Jin were slaughtered, the Jurchens scattered and soon forced safely beyond the Willow Palisade. The Chongzhen Emperor couldn't but wonder if it was a sign of his dynasty's return to the graces of Heaven, a reward for his efforts in purging the corruption of the court. As for everybody else, they couldn't wonder. They had to believe it; such was Chongzhen's decree. Chongzhen apparently believed it too, and was visibly emboldened...
The Lingering Grind.
Yuan Chonghuan's reforms (continued as he was put in charge of the Board of War) had revitalised elements of the Ming military, at least, while the victories restored the national morale somewhat; also, the treasure liberated from the Later Jin was immediately put to use, as were the newly freed-up forces. Mao Wenling soon led a veteran Ming army to victory over the assorted rebels (including a Li Zicheng) wandering in Shanxi and Shaanxi, getting governorship over the former and ruling there with an iron fist; his measures took a toll on the agriculture, but as the peasants were spending more time rebelling than working anyway it was probably worth it. Still, rebellions did not cease, and some of the generals, angered by Yuan Chonghuan's reforms and doubtful about the Dynasty's fate, even rebelled themselves or defected to the rebels; as the south was still doing comparatively well and the north was close to the capital and within the experienced northeastern army's reach, the centre and the west became particularily troubled. Though a semblance of civility was eventually imposed in the central provinces as well, Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou saw some of the worst fighting in the 1640s. The most colourful and dangerous of the rebel leaders there was the insane ex-bandit Zhang Xianzhong, who had managed to win over many of the aforementioned traitor generals and carved out a short-lived empire for them and himself in the aforementioned three provinces. Using brilliant hit-and-run tactics, he inflicted numerous defeats upon the Ming forces, but was eventually overwhelmed and forced out of his key cities, often with the active support of citizens, whom he terrorised particularily often. Eventually he was betrayed and gruesomly executed, laughing maniacally and struggling all the way through.
The rebellions would not end; smaller peasant warbands were virtually everpresent, urban riots were frequent (especially in the north) and natives won a temporary victory in Yunnan, exploiting its difficult terrain and general unatractiveness. Still, the trully big and threatening rebellions seemed to have been crushed, and Chongzhen had a momentary respite. He and Yuan Chonghuan used it to finish the renovation and repair of the Great Wall (at least in the most vital areas) and to reform the Ming army which was in a sad shape after the decay fest of the 16th century. The greater part of it consisted of conscripts and mercenaries, neither terribly competent nor very loyal. During the Jurchen and Shanxi campaigns, however, the initially-mixed northeastern armies both gained significant experience and were forged into a proper fighting force by Yuan Chonghuan. As desertions, defections, fighting and attrition took their toll on the rest of the Ming armies as well, it became increasingly clear that a new army was needed.. and the "Northeasterners" were to become its nucleus. They were divided into small units and attached to newly-conscripted forces, in order to train and inspire the latter; also, experienced officers were appointed to the army. The reform was halfway in place as of 1647, when Chongzhen suddenly had Yuan Chonghuan executed for conspiring against him, probably at the instigation of the somewhat untactful reformer's many enemies; the Emperor himself seemed to have feared that the army reform was in fact Yuan Chonghuan's ploy to establish even greater control over the military via his followers and then use it in a military coup d'etat. Still, Yuan Chonghuan was buried with all due honours. This did outrage many in the army; not so many amongst the peasants, who had short memories and associated him with the hated Mao Wenling and other hardliner generals and governors appointed since Yuan Chonghuan's promotion. Still, in the end it was just the death of yet another powerful minister, an occurance that had already become commonplace; it did ofcourse hamper the promising reforms, and so cost the Dynasty greatly, but the notion that it actually caused the new wave of rebellions is absurd; the causes were the same as before, plus growing anger over repressive measures and connected excesses.
Anyhow, late 1640s and early 1650s saw a new wave of grand rebellions all over the Empire, with particularily important role played by the shadowy revolutionary Buddhist Cult of the White Lotus (which had once brought the Ming Dynasty to power, but immediately started conflicting with the founding Hongwu Emperor, who naturally couldn't impose their radicalism upon an actual state once he had one), which had yet again resurfaced and launched a series of coordinated rebellions in the cities and in the countryside. Others were the usual peasant uprisings, especially in the north and the west, and the ongoing native rebellion in Yunnan, which now went into a genocide phase. This time, the North was particularily hard-hit, especially after Mao Wenling's most suspicious death (which naturally caused all the hell to break loose in Shanxi). The White Lotus assault on Beijing was repulsed, but the great northern port of Tianjin fell in enemy hands, only to be retaken after a lenghty siege. The White Lotus Cult continued organising uprisings, eventually seizing Chengdu as a new base of operations and trying to elevate a new popular local dynasty there. With the White Lotus attention shifted westwards, the pressure in the north receded somewhat, but there still remained numerous powerful rebel factions there, and at this point a coalition of Jurchens and Chahar Mongols invaded Liaoyang again, retaking some of the northern cities and terrorising the countryside. The South and the East also saw a few uprisings, but dissent in port cities was considerably lowered when trade with Southeast Asia was further liberalised and was allowed with Japan as well (officially in recognition of the heavy-handed Japanese crackdown on Wako raids, in the late 16th century), though in the latter it was only limited to the artificial island Deshima.
Albeit another significant rebel army was rallied by the warlord Yao Wu in 1653, it was broken later in the same year in an epic battle at Deshengmen (one of the great gates of the Beijing city wall). Long story cut short, the other rebels too were more or less crushed over the next two years, and Liaoyang and Yunnan were reclaimed, albeit Mongol and Uighur raids on the western border now intensified. The Chinese countryside was devastated by the never-ending peasant wars, but recovery finally begun, in no small part thanks to the major state subsidies and the beginning of administrative reforms. Things finally seemed to be going well, almost too well, as rebellions mostly quieted down and Chongzhen finally concluded that the court was clean at last. He was planning more and more reforms, was negotiating some trade deals with the Europeans, was building up fortifications on the western border... The realm was serenely quiet.
In 1657, Chongzhen died. Oh, and about that quiet I mentioned? It was the quiet before the storm.
The Time of Troubles.
The death of the great Emperor couldn't but result in some serious shake-ups, if only because Chongzhen had consolidated great power in his hands, especially later in his reign; he was probably the most absolutely powerful of the Ming Emperors since Hongwu. To this we may add that China, albeit recovering and calming down, was still in shambles, poverty and misery were still widespread and any political instability would lead to renewed social chaos as well. And furthermore, all that Chongzhen managed to do was slaughter a lot of corrupt and biased ministers; as for the very problem of courtly and bureaucratic partisanship, it was merely driven into the underground, and the various shadowy factions were merely waiting for the opportunity to strike (it is possible - even likely - that Chongzhen was killed by the most ready or the most desperate of those factions) - and prefferably claim power, though the weaker ones were also content to simply survive. Chongzhen didn't even manage to destroy the bilateral undue meddling between the army and the civil powers; numerous generals had recently risen in prestige and popularity, and gathered support both in the army and at the court (the most prominent of them was General Wu Sangui, the hero of the Battle of Deshengmen), while bureaucrats, eunuchs and princes sought out support in the Beijing garrison and in the newly-reorganised army.
Then there was the specific situation with the succession. Chongzhen did have eight sons, but two of them were already dead, one died soon after his father's death in mysterious circumstances, and the others were too young or too ungifted to be of any serious consequence. After the death of the Emperor's third son, the next in line to succession was Crown Prince Ci Lang; not really all that incompetent, but simply detached from the matters of state and already a puppet of a powerful court clique dominated by the eunuch Liu Gao and the Minister Chang Jiaxuan. With law and most of the Court more or less on his side, Chang Jiaxuan easily assumed power as Prime Minister and begin removing personal opponents, while Liu Gao begun consolidating his own power and influence in the matters of state. Ci Lang was soon declared the "Tianzhen Emperor", and in spite of a few early conspiracies all seemed to be going well for the clique. However, serious opposition came from the military, as Wu Sangui, initially supportive of Ci Lang, was swayed to his side by the energetic, charismatic (although elderly) Prince of Tang, Zhu Yujian. Under house arrest for most of Chongzhen's reign, Zhu Yujian had nonetheless kept himself in touch with the Court and the government, and had made some plans; now that he had the support of the greater part of the reformed military, it could go into motion. A military coup d'etat, assisted by some reformist ministers and paranoid enemies of Liu Gao, had failed, but Zhu Yujian and his family escaped from house arrest and retreated to Nanjing under the escort of Wu Sangui's soldiers, taking advantage of the fact that a new round of rebellions had already started. After the coup's failure, the Prince of Tang and his supporters were at their most vulnerable, but as soon as, thanks to major defections and the governor's sympathy, they had gained a safe base of operations in the Ming Dynasty's auxillary capital, things begun to look up.
Already by 1658 what was a banal struggle for power became a serious civil war between what could well be called the forces of reaction (the corrupt, entrenched Beijing Court and the Tianzhen Emperor) and the forces of revolution[1] (the progressive, mercantilistic, reformist Nanjing Court and the Longwu Emperor/the Prince of Tang); the latter weren't all that radical by nature, but still found their greatest base of support (apart from the military) in the ranks of the maturing Chinese mercantile bourgoise of the great coastal cities; large urban levies soon supplemented Wu Sangui's troops, while the campaign funds were provided by the local merchants in exchange for the self-proclaimed Longwu Emperor keeping the capital in Nanjing and reforming the handling of trade affairs (something that the Longwu Emperor was eager to do anyway, realising just how profitable maritime commerce had already become and how much more profitable it could become the government taps this source of income properly). The religious minorities, especially the Christian converts, were also quick to ally with Longwu; the communities sought protection in this time of troubles, while many individuals, such as Zheng Zhilong, saw this as their best legal opportunity for success. They and the Jesuits provided an important link with the Europeans and the Japanese; and the Longwu Emperor, having heard much of the former's firearms, secured arms deals and hired mercenaries. Lastly, the Longwu Emperor managed to win over many of the discontent peasants over to his side with convincing decrees and promises of reform to satisfy many of their grievances. Basically, he did all that he could to rally the general populace over to his side, and so far it worked - no matter what the long-term effect of promising so much to so many could be. By 1659, eleven provinces had either sworn allegience to the Longwu Emperor or were effectively overran by rebels loyal to him or in alliance to him. However, at the same time, Chang Jiaxuan had defeated yet another major conspiracy against him, consolidated his control over the far north, and secured the support of over a half of the Ming army (including some of those generals who had at first assisted the coup attempt) and of the new Korean king, Hyojong, who had sent an expeditionary corps (the Korean army had undergone some major reforms recently and once more became a serious force). The Nan Ming (Southern Ming, i.e. pro-Longwu) forces weren't doing too well in the initial battles, as the Bei Ming (Northern Ming, i.e. pro-Tianzhen) armies soon overran Henan and captured the great historical city of Kaifeng. Also the Nan Ming notably lacked cohesion and coordination early on, while the Bei Ming were still able to draw on the Board of War to coordinate their efforts and mostly commanded a professional, if not alwasy reliable army, augmented by conscripts. The Nan Ming still had superior quality, though: better weapons and better leaders, and some of the best troops, though as far as training was concerned the main armies of both sides didn't have much of a gap, while the peasant armies of the Nan Ming were definitely inferior to the Bei Ming conscripts in everything but morale.
1660 finally saw some more decisive developments, as the Bei Ming general Shi Dayou exploited the victory at Kaifeng and advanced southwards to the Yangtze; in the meantime, Wu Sangui and the main Nan Ming army marched north to occupy the contested parts of the Jiangsu province, quickly succeeding in that and striking north towards Jinan. Shi Dayou advanced east along the river quickly, threatening Nanjing. They were halted while attempting to cross the Yangtze at Wuhu; the garrison's commander proved surprisingly well-prepared, and deployed the newest Chinese and European cannons, wreaking havoc on the Bei Ming formations and eventually forcing Shi Dayou to pull back. Another Nan Ming army was soon rallied under the command of General Shi Kefa; it forced Shi Dayou to a battle near the Chaohu Lake. The Bei Ming did win that one, but barely and only thanks to their overwhelming numbers and the faulty weather. Aware that Chang Jiaxuan would not tolerate failure and that his own forces no longer had any chances of taking the easily-defensible Nanjing, Shi Dayou nonetheless did not defect to the Nan Ming side neither, and instead went on to become an independent warlord, taking over the province of Henan and slices of surrounding provinces and welcoming defectors from both sides. Similar, but smaller and weaker warlords would soon arise in the west, while the provinces of Hubei, Huguang and Hunan witnessed a peasant war provoked by the Nan Ming delaying reforms and growing taxes.
The main theatre of the civil war itself, thus, was in the northeastern coastal provinces of China Proper. There, Wu Sangui outmaneuvered his enemies by taking the risk of negotiating the Tai Shan mountains to suddenly emerge at Jinan itself, swiftly capturing it and turning around to defeat a Bei Ming army at Liaocheng. Another army was defeated at Baoding in a crucial battle, after which the Nan Ming were theoretically capable of threatening Beijing itself (Baoding being, as the name implied, crucial in the defense of the capital - and thus also a good forward base for an attack on the said capital). At this point, however, casualties, logistical issues and peasant uprisings forced Wu Sangui to stop his campaign for a while. The Bei Ming regroupped their forces, but were also hindered by interfighting as the Tianzhen Emperor suddenly decided to take power in his hands for real and had Liu Gao executed, though Chang Jiaxuan retained power and influence over the Emperor.
1661 went by and the Nan Ming, having by now built up a powerful army and secured their positions in the richest parts of China, concentrated on fighting the rebels and the all-too-daring Shi Dayou (who was finally defeated and killed during the battle for Kaifeng in the August of the year). The Bei Ming marshalled their remaining forces, complete with more Korean reinforcements, and briefly retook Baoding. However, in the winter they were pushed out of it, while the Ming forces, assisted by the Christian ex-pirate Admiral Zheng Zhilong, captured the ports of Tianjin and Sanshan early in 1662. After that, the somewhat anticlimatic and straightforward assault on Beijing occured. The Bei Ming army was decimated with bombardments and retreated into the city to join the garrison, but once there resisted bravely and efficiently, and it was only after several hours of heavy fighting on the walls and in the streets that the Nan Ming forces entered the Forbidden City. The Tianzhen Emperor commited suicide, Chang Jiaxuan was killed when trying to escape the city. Much of the rest of the Court was executed or commited suicide, though some were allowed to join the Nanjing Court instead; those princes in Beijing that weren't too closely associated with the Tianzhen Emperor were spared as well. Thus after a surprisingly quick and easy civil war the Southern Ming, or the Later Ming dynasty[2] had taken power, albeit scattered loyalist forces and leftover peasants and warlords continued creating problems.
Still, now was the time for the planned reforms to go into place and for some promises to be kept. Also, there were some increasingly-apparent changes in the geopolitical situation to adress...
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[1] Future Social-Rationalist historians would call the whole process "the Great Chinese Bourgoise Revolution".
[2] It is usually considered a different dynasty from the "Northern-Former Ming dynasty" due to different capitals, different policies and different family branch (it is comparable to how the Orleanists are often separated from the Bourbons, I guess; the Western/Eastern-Former/Later Han Dynasty is a far better analogy, ofcourse).
OOC: Many, but not all, of the people in this installment are althistorical; that is faster than it would've been in Europe due to China being meritocratic and in a state of upheaval for most of the time covered (=a lot more is up to chance).
The civil war, especially its beginning, may seem confusing; well, it really WAS (read: would have been) confusing, so deal with it. More importantly, it might seem somewhat unrealistic in some moments, so I'd like to ask our resident "Sinologists" (or rather the "Sinos" themselves
) for some more constructive criticism.Also, for those of you who aren't 17th century Chinese history buffs: the next installment should cover the earliest global(ish) changes as well (though it still will mostly be Sinocentric; we have a semi-demi-quasi-new dynasty with trully new policies here, people!).
carmen510
Deity
Extremely good timeline, I can't find anything wrong. Then again, I'm not a historian. I'm only a fan of history.
Semi-demi-quasi-new?! My favourite kind! I like it. I like it a looooot. I especially enjoyed the civil war. Plus, it all makes sense to me! (Which, admittedly, may actually prove bad for you, given that I think in circles and L-shapes.) Good show, old chap, good show!
Insane_Panda
Deity
Very exciting, das. It has been a long time since we have seen a good Chinese alt-history. The possibilities of China are so great, yet invariably, the best most of us can think of is..."What if Zheng He didn't stop sailing!?!?"
carmen510
Deity
Better yet, what if the Boxer Rebellion succeeded?
alex994
Hail Divine Emperor!
*sigh* That comment made me very sad, very sad. Please don't do that again.
You know, I kinda see it hard to imagine Longwudi, being such an elderly man, go on making such widespread reforms. Of course, stranger things have happened in China.
I must say the "Civil War" itself was very interesting, reminded me of historical text of various other times of disorder during China's vast history. Really, I am interested to hear more about the rest of East Asia and how the world will be affected.This alt-hist has alex994's official Sino-Seal of Approval.
EDIT: You spelled truely wrong in the last sentence
carmen510
Deity
Okay, why's it sad?
What if Communism never rose in Russia/China?
What if Communism never rose in Russia/China?
