Alternate History Thread III

1) How did New England grab Canada? They already failed in 1812 and Revolutionary War to conquer Canada, how in the world could they do it after becoming weaker?

They have not become weaker. If anything the NAF is far stronger militarily; it is more united politically, and without having to take the interests of the rest of the OTL USA into account is capable to lead a very vigorous and aggressive foreign policy. As for Canada, economic integration and political influence paved the way for an eventual invasion (as part of a "global" colonial war with hegemonic, but careless and unprepared Britain on one side and the growing naval powers of NAF, France and Japan on the other). Ontario and Quebec were succesfully annexed by the NAF, though the Dominion of Colombia took over most of the Hudson Bay Company lands and parts of Ontario.

2) Southern State capital should be in Virginia. Virginia, from the Revolutionary War until the Civil War was the main player in the south.

However, I do believe that Charleston and Atlanta played important parts, especially in Calhounite separatist movement.

3) How does California survive? After the gold rush makes it a valuable colony, you would think Texas, Britain, maybe even Russia would be glad to take it. And if one of those tried, I can't see them failing.

I can; the reason the Americans had it so easy was the overwhelming population support (and outrageous government neglect), which neither Britain nor Russia nor Texas would likely enjoy here. In part it is like OTL Afghanistan; too hard and expensive to invade, and also skillful in diplomatic maneuvering between the Great Powers. Also the Pacific powers were also distracted elsewhere for much of the time period. Nonetheless the British are now attempting an economic conquest (like in OTL Argentina).

How did Chile grab southern Argentina and how did Russia gain Manchuria?

Chile - as Dis said. Plus it had the advantage of being an important British ally in the Latin American Great Game. What happened in Argentina was a Spanish invasion, somewhat more succesful than the OTL attempt, destabilising the situation further, especially when the Spanish military governor of Buenos Aires pledged allegience to the newly-installed Bonapartist government (this was part of Britain's war against the ascendant powers, which was mentioned previously). Eventually the British, the Brazilians and the Chileans moved in, removed the Spanish and their allies, installed a friendly government and annexed numerous territories.

Manchuria partially reflects the aforementioned change in the Pacific balance of power in favour of Japan, Britain and, importantly, Russia. With Japan expanding southwards and Britain put on the defensive in the Central Pacific, Russian influence in the northern Pacific grows, especially after Alexander III's grand infrastructure projects bear fruit. With Japan less interested in Port Arthur and generally quite cooperative with Russia, the Russians are able to establish their influence in Manchuria much more smoothly. Eventually they used China's general instability to establish a "protectorate" over the entire territory.

I don't see Africa as happening at all, if anywhere overseas it would be Israel.

Israel may make religious sense, but until the late 19th century it is simply way too difficult to get there. For an ideological reason for Africa, one could use the popular geographic ambiguity as to the location of Queen Sheba's realm, which some apparently thought to be in such locations as South Africa. For the more pragmatic reasons see all the OTL religious colonies set up there. This one is simply more independent.
 
PoD-for-the-day (#10 - March 21st, 2007): The 1635 Treaty of Prague works. The exact PoD would likely be Richelieu's early death (early 1630s). Without his drive Sweden and France are unable to formulate the coordinated strategy that had served them so well in OTL, and the French are also weakened by intrigue and (as in OTL) economic decay. The "Imperial coalition" persists; driven by a vague forming German national identity and outrage at Swedish atrocities, the Imperial armies manage to push the Swedes out of northern Germany, and future attempts to restart the invasion fail for the lack of funds. France decides to quit while ahead and signs separate peace in 1638 (making this Twenty Years War), securing the recognition of the French candidate in Mantua and Montferrat and annexing several forts and cities in Lorraine. The Swedes meanwhile became bogged down in a war with Denmark-Norway; Scania is eventually conquered but all the German designs had to be forgotten. So a queer peace settles over Europe, with some more separate peace agreements, notably between Netherlands and Spain.

On the first glance, this Europe is more balanced. France and Sweden aren't quite as powerful as in OTL, and Spain is definitely stronger than in OTL; the Holy Roman Empire isn't quite as devastated as in OTL and is certainly stronger and more unified, although more of a confederation than an unitary empire that Ferdinand II had envisioned and still divided on many issues. The change in the Empire's priorities helps the Ottoman Empire, as the Habsburgs wouldn't be quite as interested in Hungary and the Danube in this world.

However, one must note that Sweden and France are in fact better-off than in OTL economically and internally. The Fronde will never occur, allowing for a more steady evolution towards absolute monarchy. Already the 1640s are likely to see a great deal of trouble, as England, troubled, appears likely to implode into a civil war regardless of the developments on the Continent. Only now, the various foreign powers will be much more free to intervenne. Netherlands, France and Spain will probably all involve themselves, all pursuing their own goals. One possible outcome would be a Covenanter feudal republic in Scotland, backed by the Dutch; an Anglican absolute monarchy in England and Wales, backed by the French; and a Catholic feudal monarchy in Ireland, backed by the Spanish. Or perhaps one will prevail. Either France or a Dutch-Parliamentary coalition, I suppose.

In Northern Europe, Sweden will probably be a lot less expansionist; less influential, but also less overstretched. Domestic development will probably proceed more smoothly. Denmark-Norway might actually be defeated and "unified" at some point, though the Dutch and the Imperials will likely do their best to thwart this.

In Central Europe, the Austrian Habsburgs will concentrate all their efforts on pulling the Empire closer together and more united. Concessions will have to be made (religious tolerance, feudal parliamentarism), but it is feasible. In foreign affairs, the HRE will definitely not be expansionist; rather, it shall have to commit to a policy of balance of power. Hell, the Imperials might intervenne in England as well, and they will probably try to assist Denmark-Norway in the north. If Poland-Lithuania is still faced with a Deluge equivalent, it is likely to become an Imperial client state (like it was a Russian client state for much of the OTL 18th century). Then again, without Swedish aggression, Poland-Lithuania will probably be somewhat stronger. But then, the Russians would not have to fight the Swedes in Livonia neither, and so will not lose the initiative to the Poles once the latter had recovered. In the end I estimate that the Russians still will make gains in the Ukraine.

The Ottoman Empire will be in a better position thanks to less people being interested in its demise (although, Spain might attack North Africa again... but Barbary Coast isn't vital for the Ottoman Empire at all). It would probably have the time to establish a proper hold on Hungary (the Austrian meddling in those plans - that had provoked the Second Siege of Vienna - will not occur, ofcourse), fully annexing Transylvania. Given their love-hate relationship with the Don Cossacks, the Ottomans are pretty likely to involve themselves in Poland-Lithuania, but I can't really see them making permanent gains there.

Colonial issues are a point of interest, if only because in this world I actually see a Swedish colonial empire feasible - probable, even, on a certain scale. France and Sweden, and Holland and the British state(s) will expand into North America, competing fiercely. The French would have pretty good chances of dominating this, however, without the war-induced economic upsets of the 1640s and other troubles. Another major change is that Spain would probably hold on to Portugal for some time, and the Dutch will probably have to cease their attacks on the Portuguese colonies if they want to avoid a new Spanish attack in Europe. Still, though unable to establish themselves quite as well in Southeast Asia, the Dutch might be able to hold on to their gains in northern Brazil - perhaps a springboard for further expansion in the Carribean and Africa.
 
The Road to War.

Europe in 1700 was as troubled as ever. While the internal social tensions had certainly receded since their zenith in the mid-17th century, the international politics had, in a way, become even messier than in the Thirty Years War, for although that war and the Peace of Westphalia had put an end to the grand confessional struggles that predominated earlier, these were promptly replaced by the powergames and coalition wars of the Great Powers, which, while never quite as destructive as religious wars, were fought on an even greater scale than before. This was to a large extent dictated by the new geopolitical circumstances that arose after the Peace of Westphalia, as France and Sweden, both powerful and aggressive nations, moved into positions of prominence - but not complete dominance, as they had learned when they tried to exercise their power to grab nearby lands and extend their influence. If anything, their strenght and expansionism had frightened enemies around them into forming united fronts, resulting in such coalitions that noone thought possible - as between England, Spain and Netherlands, or between Russia and Poland. Sweden was forced to content itself with limited gains and temporarily halted its wars of conquest and plunder after 1679, content in the knowledge that their enemies were rendered impotent against them for quite some time now, both due to Swedish victories and because of their own disagreements; but as the generations changed and new treaties were signed, the Swedish empire's situation once more became precarious. The briefly-resurgent Ottoman Empire had it worse; after a few initial victories over the provocative Austrians in 1682 and 1683, a powerful coalition was assembled by the Holy Roman Emperor and his Polish allies, and the Ottomans were gradually beaten out of Hungary, which constitued a healthy chunk of their European possessions, and lost some other territories to their enemies as well. But by far the most persistant threat to the European balance of power was presented by Louis XIV's France, a political superpower, economic powerhouse and military juggernaut which emerged from every struggle with an Europe-wide coalition only slightly delayed in its inexorable advance, which reached a zenith in the late 1680s/early 1690s, with the reunions - a policy of consistant annexation in an effort to move the French northern border to the Rhine. Louis XIV had also done his best to use his Swedish and Turkish allies, conveniently positioned in a good position to harry the Holy Roman Empire's rear, in order to distract his foes; however, by the aforementioned 1690s that policy begun to backfire, as the Swedes, in the wake of the 1660s Northern Wars, decided to abstain from attacking the Empire and the Ottomans, who actually launched a full assault, were thrown back reeling in a manner that seriously strenghthened the Austrians. Another considerable setback was in England, which had in the first few decades after Westphalia been vacillating in its foreign policies, often enough actually supporting France. After the Glorious Revolution of 1688, however, the Dutch Stadholder Willem took power as King William III, creating a personal union of the menacing English and the hated Dutch. The Anglo-Dutch and the Austrians had managed to assemble a powerful coalition, the League of Augsburg, against Louis XIV; it proved just enough to force him to abandon the reunions and the gains made therefrom in the 1695 Treaty of Delft. The War of the League of Augsburg had trully cost France dearly, setting its ambitions back, damaging its economy and crippling its navy, as well as assembling a coalition that fully surrounded France and was capable of checking all and any territorial designs that Louis might entertained. So the Sun King was understandably not amused.

Still, he had numerous cunning plans available. His agents were seeking out allies in Germany and undermining the fragile unity of the Holy Roman Empire; other diplomats were wooing Sweden and the Ottoman Empire; other still sought out support in the divided and capricious, but at the same time ridicilously powerful Polish Sejm; and, ofcourse, Louis XIV wanted to be in a good position to exploit the final solution of the Spanish question, whatever it might be. You see, the decrepit Spanish empire was the sick man of Europe, kept alive only by Louis XIV's enemies, who took advantage of it still having numerous possessions surrounding France; at the same time, Louis XIV was always trying to snatch these for himself, but while the Spanish could be trusted to run them into the ground with their corruption and inefficiency, the French could only get more powerful with them in their hands - hence, the propping up of Spain and all those coalition wars to thwart French designs. But while the "Grand Alliance" was able to protect Spain from external enemies, it was incapable of really stopping the numerous diseases plaguing the country and its inbred and senile king, Carlos II, who himself was "the sick man" incarnate - and who, much like Spain itself, simply refused to die, to the frustration of all, including his allies who had by then figured they might as well stop resisting the inevitable and prepare to carve up the Spanish pie. Indeed, as all got tired of waiting some initial plans were drawn up. Obviously, both the French Bourbons and the Austrian Habsburgs put forward some candidates for that eventuality; the Maritime Powers (England and Netherlands), not wanting either of the two great land powers to gain a huge advantage over the other (and the others) proposed a compromise that would have the Spanish throne inherited by the Bavarian Wittelsbach crown prince, Josef Ferdinand. Both Vienna and Paris considered Bavaria their loyal ally, and so agreed; however, they also wanted direct gains. With English intermediation, a semi-secret agreement was worked out; while the Wittelsbach would still get Spain and its colonies, the Low Countries will go to Austria and Spanish possessions in Italy will go to France (actually both the French and the Austrians wanted the opposite, but the French figured that they could always grab the Low Countries, while for now this agreement should drive a wedge between the Austrians and the English, which it did). When the Spanish court had learned of this, it was outraged; and to what extent he could manage that, Carlos II was outraged as well. His will remained unchanged; Josef Ferdinand would inherit the Spanish Empire in its entirety...

That happened in 1701, soon after Carlos II's 40th birthday. The Partition of Spain followed soon after - but, to William III's outrage, it was done in complete disregard of the Partition Treaty, the French grabbing the Low Countries and the Austrians taking Milan and Naples. The Spanish garrisons tried to resist occasionally, but most surrendered, their situation extremelly uncertain as it was. The Spanish Regency Council (Josef Ferdinand was still too young) protested at first, and even tried to form an anti-French and anti-Habsburg alliance with the Maritime Powers, but that didn't work out and so it acquiesced, especially as Spain begun to disintegrate and decay even faster than before, with even more intense and pointless intrigues at the court and rapid erosion of central authority, as the separate kingdoms and regions that made up Spain started simply ignoring what few orders came from Madrid. Louis XIV looked on with vague interest, which became more concrete when it became apparent that young King Jose I (who was also quite inbred) was dying from smallpox. Also with ridicilous delays.

While the English struggled to find a way to force the French out of the Spanish Netherlands and desperately tried to incite the Austrians to attack France, Louis XIV smugly consolidated the gains he made with nary a shot, rattled his sables some to make sure that all the attention was on the Rhine and sped up some other plans of his, to open a second front for the eventual war. A surprisingly fortuitious event had occured on the other side of Europe in 1702, when pent-up fury at hardline Swedish centralisation efforts finally led to a German rebellion in Livonia. The rebellion was spontaneous and quickly crushed; but the fun part was only beginning, as the Swedes discovered that the rebels were, naturally, organised by the Livonian archseparatist Johann Reinhold Patkul, who, ever since having to flee Sweden in fear of reprecussions for pestering the king with his petitions and grievances, had settled down in Poland, gained employment with Poland's Saxon monarch Augustus II and has ever since been working to undermine Sweden, both in Livonia and in the Baltic. So Carl XII demanded that Augustus gives him over. As Patkul, who was basically in charge of assembling an anti-Swedish coalition, had thus far failed to get any concrete results, Augustus agreed. At this point things may well have ended at that; there was no anti-Swedish coalition, and so the Swedes themselves didn't really have all that much to fight against. But at this point Carl XII was approached by French diplomats who had learned about the incident. They gave him an offer no self-respecting militarist could refuse. They offered him lots of warfunds and diplomatic and moral support, and asked him to merely overthrow Augustus II and replace him with Poland's rightfully-elected king, Francois Louis de Bourbon (Franciszek I), whom Augustus had cheated out of the throne in the last moment. This Franciszek also promised territorial concessions and cooperation in foreign policy, particularily against Russia and Brandenburg. Lastly, the French bribed some advisors to appeal to Carl XII's religious fanaticism; Augustus II was, after all, an apostate, a traitor of the Evangelical cause, and if Carl XII were to defeat him he would be able to reclaim the legacy of Gustavus Adolphus, and maybe even bring the great king's plans to fruition, making Sweden the leader of Protestant Europe once again.

So Carl XII soon wrote another harshly-worded letter to Augustus II, demanding that he let the Swedes occupy Courland, pay an indemnity, hand over some more courtiers that were apparently in cahoots with Patkul, and convert to Calvinism. That was really going too far, and Augustus II reluctantly freed Patkul and sent him to Vienna to call for help, while himself ordering the Sejm to initiate the pospolite ruszenie (a large-scale levy). Carl XII declared war and marched into Courland.

The Escalation.

Augustus II didn't have his hopes up for this war at all, but he certainly didn't appreciate the full horror of his situation until it was too late. All efforts to get Denmark-Norway, Brandenburg or Russia to attack Sweden had failed, for one reason or another. Vienna offered its sympathy (Kaiser Leopold I, much like Louis XIV, was mostly busy waiting for Spain to blow up). Hell, Poland was actually less than alone in its struggle - as many of the noblemen, displeased with Augustus II's illegitimate seizure of power and efforts at absolutist reform, immediately defected to the Swedish side with their levies. It wasn't much better in Saxony, where many of the Protestants were actually rooting for Carl XII. One bright spot came in early 1703, when the first major Polish army to actually fight the Swedes was routed at Bialystok, the first more-or-less Polish city, and Franciszek, who had accompanied the Swedish army, finally surfaced officially and persuaded the city to surrender without a fight. That spot was bright because the Bourbon Franciszek was a clear indication of Louis XIV being at least partially behind this invasion, and certainly in a position to benefit from a French king in Poland and an army led by a Calvinist religious fanatic likely to stand on the Carpathians by 1704 if it continued moving in this pace. So now Vienna finally pledged support for Poland and sent out an army under Prinz Eugen von Savoyen to help defend Warsaw. Better late than never, but technically that was way too late; by the time the Austrians reached Warsaw Augustus II was already fleeing with a handful of retainers towards Krakow, his pretty huge (if mostly ragtag) army having already been annihilated in the Battle of Wolomin, while Warsaw itself was in the hands of the Swedes and their local allies. Franciszek's coronation had finally taken place and, well, it was all over. After fighting a masterful delaying action, Eugen retreated southwards as well. Leaving Franciszek and some of his troops to consolidate their gains, Carl XII pursued southwards.

At this point, Poland's neighbours finally sat up, took notice and begun panicking. Soon the rest of the Holy Roman Empire had pledged to support Augustus II as well, and so did Denmark-Norway, whose Frederik IV swiftly occupied the duchy of Holstein-Gottorp (whose dukes had been traditional allies with Sweden and relatives of the Vasas, constantly helping them invade Jutland). As for Tsar Peter I, he wasn't done punishing the Kalmyks, and his military reforms were yet unfinished, so he confirmed his non-aggression pact with Sweden and stayed out of the war for now. Nonetheless he still did pay more attention to the events to his immediate west from now on, eyeing both Sweden's Baltic possessions and Poland's Orthodox-majority territories. Whom to brutally stab in the back when he pulls his knife out of the Kalmyk khan's coprse? That was the question. But as already mentioned Peter wasn't ready to jump in on any side just yet, while the war was only beginning and it was hard to say who was winning. Opportunistic attacks had to wait for a while.

With his eastern flank still secure and his new Polish ally beginning to consolidate his powerbase (in spite of some revolts on the western and eastern fringes of the country), Carl XII was not in the least dismayed by the Imperial coalition assembled against him. While Arvid Bernhard Horn was trusted with the defense of Sweden (a task he had carried out masterfully, maneuvering militia formations and his sparse reserves as to thwart all and any Danish attacks on Skane with minimal fighting), Carl XII fought an intricate war of maneuver with Eugen; then, after putting this foe on the defensive, he suddenly turned west and invaded Silesia with the support of local Protestants and Upper Silesian Poles. The Austrians, surprised, were defeated at Liegnitz; the Brandenburgers, who had sent an army to help the Austrians, were decimated at Glogau, and a Saxono-Brandenburger army attempting to link up with the loyalist rebels in Poznan was turned back at Lwowak. The rebels were defeated soon after. As a finishing touch, Carl XII secured Danzig, where he received reinforcemenets and established a supply depot, and proceeded to overrun East Prussia, a location of particular symbolic importance for the Elector of Brandenburg. With this series of Swedish victories, the western threats were neutralised for now; nonetheless, this somewhat illogical campaign had given the Austrians time to prepare better defenses in Galicia. However, as revolts over Austrian "occupation" and undisciplinned behaviour, as well as simply against the unpopular Augustus II, begun those positions became more compromised, while Carl XII made another unusual step of suddenly attacking the Austro-Saxon garrison of Krakow in the January 1705; the winter force march had taken its tool on Carl XII's army, but when Krakow - and with it, Augustus II - was captured in a quick battle as opposed to a drawn-out siege (admittedly, thanks to a few lucky coincidences to the same degree as to Carl's surprise effect and tactical ingenuity) this was quite fully recompensed, especially when Field Marshal Carl Gustav Rehnskiold showed up with a large Polish and a small Swedish army at Lwow, soon taking that city as well. The Austrians, overstretched and thrown out of their key fortifications and supply centres, had no choice but to retreat into Hungary, saved from attack on the move by the pretty poor state of Swedish logistics. But Carl XII wasn't really in a hurry here. Eager to both secure his trust and ensure coordination, the French had been letting him in on their plans and had been working together with his own agents. The fruits of this cooperation became apparent later in 1705, as the Holy Roman Emperor's terrible situation got three times worse.

Firstly, back in late 1704, King Jose I of Spain was kind enough to die of smallpox, which meant that the issue of Spanish Succession was up again, as if it was never resolved. The French diplomats immediately approached the Regency Council and the prominent courtiers, recruiting support for the candidature of Dauphin Louis (soon changed to his youngest son Charles, duc de Berry); although the Madrid court mostly supported this, having been given lots of bribes, the Austrian and pro-Habsburg machinations delayed the process; it was decided to hold elections in the cortes (local "courts"/parliaments). However, due to the inherently decentralised nature of the cortes system, as well as thanks to tons of international and domestic intrigues and social tensions that had already spilled over into rural uprisings, this has directly caused a civil war when Castille pledged its allegience to Charles ("King Carlos III"), while the cortes of Aragon, Catalonia and Valencia had elected Prinz Karl, the younger son of the Holy Roman Emperor (who also declared himself "King Carlos III"; the ensuing war was sometimes called the "War of Two Charleses"). Karl soon arrived in Valencia and begun gathering popular support, while Charles crossed the Pyrenees under French military escort, safely reaching Madrid for his coronation. At the same time, a flurry of diplomacy commenced as the Holy Roman Emperor finally realised how wrong he was to have ignored the warnings of the recently-deceased King William III. So he contacted his widow, Queen Anne, and negotiated a new alliance with England and the Dutch Republic (incidentally, no longer in a personal union); this was joined by the rest of the Holy Roman Empire and by Portugal. The renewed Grand Alliance demanded that the French withdraw from all the Spanish territories, including those in the Netherlands. Naturally, Louis XIV refused, still hoping that the Imperials, tied down in the east, were bluffing. Still, he was ready for the eventuality of them being serious.

So with French funding and Swedish propaganda, the Hungarian magnate Ferenc II Rakoczi had initiated in middle 1705 a great Hungarian rising, playing on the social tensions and the dissent caused by opressive Austrian policies and reckless reforms. Although the Austrians had considerable military presence and the support of the greater portion of the nobility, Ferenc still had at his disposal a vast peasant army, often actually experienced in warfare due to there being a lot of that in Hungary for the last few decades. As the entire country was lit aflame, Carl XII crossed the Carpathian passes and quickly seized Kosice, making it his forward base. By the late 1706 most of Transylvania and large regions elsewhere in Hungary were in rebel and/or Swedish hands, in spite of the very best of Austrian efforts to restore order. With this and the new Spanish crisis the reconquest of Silesia was deprioritised, and the forces from elsewhere in the extensive Habsburg realms were commited to the Hungarian theatre.

Nonetheless, the Imperials did also dispatch a small army to the Rhine, where it was joined by the armies of the western German princes and of the Dutch Republic. The English also restated the ultimatum and initiated naval demonstrations off the French shores, intending to draw the French fleet out. Not willing to lose it again, the French ignored the English stalwartly, soon forcing them to pursue a different strategy, sending a large army under the Duke of Marlborough to anarchy-gripped La Coruna. As Portugal marshalled its forces and Prinz Karl asserted his control over the Aragonese kingdoms, the Franco-Castillian positions in central Spain became seriously threatened from both the west and the east and soon came under assault. A large Spanish army loyal to the Bourbons was shattered by the Portuguese (reinforced by another English expeditionary force) at Badajoz, while Marlborough occupied Leon and commenced a marvelous force march to Vitoria, suddenly and sharply severing the French supply and reinforcement routes. Towards the end of 1707 the Habsburg Aragonese forces linked up with the English and the Portuguese armies, and all besieged Madrid - well-fortified and well-manned, but really quite doomed. Not all went as well as the Allies would have wanted - the Castillian guerrilas fought a highly-decried and a highly-efficient campaign of raids and hit-and-run attacks on the Allied supply routes, while the French succesfully defended Pamplona and invaded Catalonia - but Spain was by far the most succesful theatre for them, especially when the resistance in Andalusia was eliminated in the Anglo-Portuguese sideshow Gualdaquivir Campaign of 1706-1708.

The Mediterranean was indeed going far better for the Allies than one could have expected; the French ploy to get the Ottomans to attack the Austrians had failed, the Ottomans choosing to concentrate on securing their Arabian and North African possessions and replacing governors that thought that just because Constantinople was so far away they were as good as independent rulers. The growing interfighting between the Sultan and his Janissaries helped too. And with Andalusia safe in Allied hands, the Spanish fleet was mostly captured or forced to flee to the Carribean (the colonies had apparently recognised the Bourbon claim), so a large English (incidentally, the Kingdom of Great Britain was formally announced in 1708 - so from then on, things were British, not English) fleet had entered the sea and linked up with Austrian, pro-Habsburg Spanish and Venetian fleets, stifling French Mediterranean commerce and, in a particularily bold action, seizing Toulon and damaging the French fleet there considerably, although most of it managed to strike into the sea and rebase to Marseilles, thwarting all similar attempts there. This encouraged the Duke of Savoy, Victor Amadeus II, to join the Grand Alliance again. Although the Duke was unable to launch any serious offensive operations, this final Mediterranean reverse, along with more favourable developments elsewhere, had persuaded Louis XIV to commit to a German strategy instead.

So in 1708, just as the Austrians, through sheer numbers provided to them by allies and levies, finally begun gaining the upper hand in the war with Sweden (forcing Carl XII to retreat from Buda back to his strongholds in Transylvania and Ruthenia), the French begun their hotly-anticipated main action. Under the general command of Claude Louis Hector de Villars, the French invaded the Rhenish Palatinate; the Imperials decided to try and bog the French down in siege warfare, but were suddenly betrayed by the significant Bavarian contingent. Maximilian II Emanuel had, as per a long-prepared plan, joined the French side, severely compromising the Holy Roman Empire's integrity and security. With the Palatinate and the Elector-Palatine's other possessions swiftly overran, the French hurried east across southern Germany, crushing the armies of local rulers and often intimidating them into allying or at least letting the French through. The sheer size and reputation of the French army, combined with perceived abandonment by the Habsburgs, made this tactic quite effective and the French army was at Munich before the year's end. The winter was spent besieging Linz.

Nonetheless when Leopold died, in the same year, the northern and central electors still voted for his son Josef I as Holy Roman Emperor, and he was recognised by the Hungarian nobles as well. All this showed clearly that Austria wasn't about to fall apart just yet. Indeed, Josef I's policy of compromise and concessions allowed him to get the various Slavic and Hungarian nobles to give him about 40,000 men more, at the price of reversing some previous centralisation measures.

1709 was to be the most important year of them all, in all the theatres. Prinz Karl hoped to establish full control over Spain, while Charles de Berry and the Duke of Berwick (the illegitimate son of King James II, who commanded the French army in Catalonia) intended to upset his plans and take battered Spain for the House of Bourbon. The British government prepared new continental expeditions (most notably, a coordinated offensive with the Dutch in the Flanders) while eyeing Spanish colonies and deciding to grab some of those as well before this is over. The Duke of Savoy prepared to actually do something - namely, to relieve the French siege of Toulon, with help from some British and Austrian forces that were given to him in spite of other concerns (it was intended to distract the French and possibly link up with the Huguenot rebel warbands in southern central France). The Bavarians consolidated their gains and sought out supporters. De Villars looked at Linz and from afar eyed Vienna as well, or at least Prague. Feldmarshall Guido Starhemberg, the Austrian commander in Austria itself, and Kaiser Josef I prepared for the decisive defense, cordonning key positions and marshalling what troops they could redeploy from Hungary as well as the new ones. Eugen von Savoyen, having been forced to send nearly half of his army to Austria, nonetheless gained the position of supreme commander in Hungary - and as the rebellion petered out he felt ready to nail Carl XII's Hungarian campaign's coffin, while Friedrich III of Brandenburg and Frederik IV of Denmark-Norway readied to attack Swedish positions in Poland and Scania respectivelly. Carl XII wasn't anywhere near dead yet, though; he himself had a brilliant plan, another ambitious and daring maneuver to fundamentally offset the balance of his enemies and ensure their destruction. He himself however had forgotten to watch his back. For in the east, Tsar Peter I was ready to make his move...
 
The Decisive Battles.

The first great event of this year occured on the 3rd of January, when Peter I gleefully tore his copy of the non-aggression pact with Sweden in front of the Swedish ambassador, who then had to hurry towards Riga to bring the news of the Tsar's declaration of war. Carl XII was unpleasantly surprised, but decided to go on with his plan nonetheless, in spite of Franciszek's complaints. In fact, he quite clearly told Franciszek to defend both his own and Carl's eastern borders, while Carl handles the western war. Franciszek, a fairly skilled military commander in his own right, broodingly accepted and set out with his ragtag Swedo-Franco-Polish army to Vilnius.

And in the meantime, Carl XII, frustrated by the vacillating Ottomans, pulled out of Hungary, leaving Rakoczi to his own designs and even taking a few Transylvanian regiments with him. A new western campaign was in order, but it had to be more decisive. So the Swede reasserted his control over Silesia, defeated an Austrian army at Ostrau and dove into Moravia. A large Imperial army under the command of Prinz Georg von Hessen-Darmstadt engaged the Swede at Olmutz, but in a close-ran battle the Swedes emerged victorious and entered Brunn a few weeks later thanks to some traitors inside. This couldn't have been timed better, as De Villars had recently finished fighting an intensive but inconclusive campaign with the well-fortified Austrians in Austria Proper, who had managed to bar his way to Vienna, and now marched north. With the French coming from the south and the Swedes coming from the east, Austrian Bohemia was mostly overran, and the Imperial army dealt a significant defeat at Prague; another one tried to reverse this verdict and was routed at Iglau. Meanwhile, Nicolas Catinat, put in charge of another French army and the main Bavarian forces, finally assaulted and captured Linz, advancing to victory at Sankt Polten. The Austrian situation grew increasingly dire, and so Eugen von Savoyen was redeployed west with most of his forces, especially as the Hungarians were chiefly subdued and Rakoczi himself hanged by now. Eugen and Starhemberg deployed their forces over a fairly wide area, nonetheless covering Vienna and the important surroundings quite well. But at the same time, Carl XII, Claude Louis Hector de Villars and Nicolas Catinat moved in for the kill with numerically-superior forces.

As for the eastern campaign... Well, suffice it to say that although Franciszek had a pretty big army and was a very skilled commander, and had some other such under his command, he was really doomed from the start. For he still had only one real army - whereas Peter I had five, spread out along the border from Ingria to the Ukraine. Those armies had fairly amounts of experience, were recently reorganised and armed with more-or-less modern weapons - and most crucially, they were led by a good international officer corps. Though still somewhat lacking in quality and having logistical problems, defeating these armies tactically was not going to be a walkover, or so Franciszek thought. He had even less illusions about his strategic situation, though; the relentless Russian advance was threatening to overrun Poland and the eastern Baltic Swedish holdings, and any armies that got in the way would be smashed between the Tsar's forces. The only reasonable strategy, then, was to defeat the enemy in detail and before he could develop his advance properly. Luck smiled on Franciszek early on, and he defeated Aleksandr Danilovich Menshikov's army at Orsha, turning it back with serious casualties. Emboldened, he divided his forces; while Jan Kazimierz Sapieha the Younger hurried south to link up with loyal Cossacks and other Polish levies and counter the Russians in the Ukraine, Franciszek himself, with a smaller but faster and better-trained force, marched north to link up with Adam Ludwig Lewenhaupt's Swedish army. Vastly underestimating the number of Russian troops in there, Franciszek was in for a nasty surprise - Lewenhaupt was besieged in Riga by Peter's greatest general, the aging Patrick Gordon, while Peter I himself was already in Courland. The Polish army was forced to a battle at Mitau. The grueling battle saw Franciszek at his best; he rallied his men when they nearly broke, and repulsed attack after attack with large casualties, wounding Peter himself. However, the Russians too refused to give way. The reason for their persistance became apparent when Patrick Gordon's forces, including some of Peter's best New Order and elite Guard Regiments, emerged to the Polish east, in the barely-defended rear. Franciszek first tried to move his forces to halt this new threat; then, as he was increasingly overwhelmed, made a desperate effort to save what he can. But his retreat soon turned into a rout, his troops pursued and cut down by the Russian reiters. Franciszek was captured during the pursuit. Soon all the hell broke loose. Augustus II was "freed" by Polish conspirators; he was forced to accept their conditions, pledging to not attempt any reforms whatsoever and to confirm all the rights and priveleges of the szlachta and the Sejm. With him as a figurehead, the conspirators, led by the magnate Jozef Potocki, lit Poland itself aflame with rebellion, the allies of Franciszek and the Swedish garrisons barely holding out in the key cities. An Austrian army marched into Galicia, the small Polish army there defecting instantly. The Russians pressed their advance, soon seizing Minsk and Winnica (in western Ukraine); Sapieha hanged on and retreated northwestwards, but he effectively begun acting as an independent force, carving out a small empire in southern Lithuania. The Brandenburgers too entered the game, occupying Danzig.

When the messangers reached Carl XII, he was vexed. After his initial victories, it came as quite a shock. Everything was falling apart. Poland was in anarchy, and the path back to Sweden might as well have been cut off. The Danes had given up on Scania - instead, they landed in Malmo. That accursed Patkul was with Peter I, and with his help the Russians had overran Livonia. And what news came from Stockholm? Arvid Bernhard Horn and the Riksdag of the Estates practically demanded (though under a somewhat thin veil of politeness and fealty) that the King abandon his foreign adventure and return to defend his empire while it was still there. Carl XII was put before a difficult choice. The Austrian campaign was in full swing, and his troops could make the difference between victory and defeat there - or back in Livonia and Scania. Carl XII had to choose between fighting to the victorious end here and saving the empire; between his obligations as an ally of France and as the monarch of Sweden. Finally, he made a choice.

The Swedish army, already some 30 miles away from Vienna, requested a local truce and disengaged from the Austrians; it turned around and set out north, Carl XII brooding but also filled with a newfound determination. De Villars was miffed to say the least. Still, he pressed on towards Vienna, overcoming cordon after cordon. In the culminative winter battle at the village of Ottakring, full of reverses for both sides, the Franco-Bavarians were ultimately repulsed despite reaching the very walls of Vienna at a certain point. Both forces were considerably drained by the battle, though - the winners even moreso than the "vanquished", having squandered much manpower in their intricate counterattacks. De Villars' army retired to Tulln an der Donau for the winter. This was not over yet...

The Provencal Campaign was rather anticlimatic. Louis Joseph de Bourbon, duc de Vendôme, had rallied the divided French forces in the region, laid siege to Toulon and defeated the invading Austro-Savoyard army at Draguignan and in some subsequent battles. After that, the French tightened the noose around Toulon, gradually bombarding it into submission. Judging their position untenable, the British eventually withdrew, torching the city and its docks.

In Spain, developments were somewhat more dramatic, as Castillian guerrilas landed a series of humiliating defeats on the Habsburg forces, while the Duke of Berwick bypassed Barcelona and captured Tortosa and Valencia, severing the main Habsburg reinforcement path. The Anglo-Portuguese forces still did defeat Charles d'Berry's ragtag army at Valladolid, but too suffered a serious "setback" during the botched attempt to secure the Pyrenean passes - the Basques had chosen to side with the Bourbons and harrased the Allied army until the French and another Castillian force were able to converge on it at Andoain, annihilating or capturing the entirety of this army. Thus the Allies had strong positions in western and southern Spain, while the Bourbons had established themselves in the north; they nonetheless also made efforts to secure the centre later in the year, defeating a badly outnumbered (thanks in part to Castillian attrition) Habsburg force at Siguenza and eventually laying siege to Madrid.

The British conducted raids against the French coast, with uneven and ultimately inconsequential results. Trade was also stiffled, ofcourse. Of greater long-term import and lesser predictability were the events in the Americas, where the British went on the offensive, primarily in the Carribean and in Canada. First Lord of the Admiralty, Edward Russel, had personally supervised the campaign in the former region. In the name of Prinz Karl, the British occupied Trinidad, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (both French and Spanish), as well as seized the local French possessions in a more explicit landgrab. The campaign on Cuba had stalemated due to disease and eventually had to be aborted, though, while the attacks on Caracas and Panama were repulsed by local militias. Meanwhile, in North America, the British operated rather unevenly. Though managing to get the Iroquois to restart their war with the French and helping them sack several forts and trade outposts, as well as occupying Newfoundland and Cape Breton Island, the British were humiliatingly routed by local militiamen in continental Acadia and at Quebec itself. Still, with the latest reverses in Europe taken into consideration, the British had decided to give greater priority to North America in the coming years. Consequently, forces were redeployed and colonial militias were marshalled.

The Endgame.

1709 was a deeply-frustrating year for France and Sweden, with virtually none of their objectives reached and numerous positions lost. However, the jubilations of their enemies were premature. The two empires remained military powerhouses, each in its own right, and still had many forces to commit. The Swedes had abandoned their grander ambitions, and instead concentrated on defending their homeland; that allowed them to use their smaller, but stronger units more efficiently, especially having attained some degree of naval supremacy in the Baltic. As for the French, they merely brought out some more of their extensive reserves, and renewed the campaign to bring Austria to its knees.

From 1710 on, the war was increasingly diverging into two conflicts - a Swedish one and a French one. Nonetheless, they still were interconnected, both because of the French efforts to get the Swedes to invade Germany and because the antagonists of both wars were mostly the same. Obviously, events in one of the wars influenced those in the other; realising this, France and Sweden continued coordinating their efforts to a certain extent, despite their falling out after Carl XII's withdrawal from Moravia. Speaking of which...

The harsh winter of 1709 caught Carl XII's army near Warsaw. After pondering the situation, Carl XII decided that there was nothing left to seek here, at least at present. So he picked up the Swedish troops garrisoned there and withdrew with them, leaving his disunited Polish allies at the mercy of the revolting peasants and of Potocki's konfederacja. Effectively he withdrew Bourbon Poland's backbone, causing what little order remained in its core regions to disappear. Carl XII hurried northeastwards with his troops, withstanding severe punishment from "General Winter". In early 1710 he evacuated himself and most of his army from Danzig (which he had recaptured in a trully desperate battle), arriving in Stockholm just in time to reassert his power and levy more troops. As a sign of the turning fortunes, he landed a major defeat on the Danes at Goteborg, though leaving the business of sieging the last remaining Danish forces in Malmo to Horn. In the meantime he took command of the formidable Swedish fleet and sailed east, to confront the Russian fleet. Nonexistant a few years ago, it had been constructed under Peter I's supervision, and was very vast indeed; however, the Tsar was bedridden after Mitau, and the fleet was commanded by Fyodor Matveyevich Apraksin instead. Although large in number, the Russian fleet consisted of smaller and inferior-quality ships, mostly; the speed with which they were assembled and the deficit of experienced labour naturally meant that there were many oversights in the design. Also, although Apraksin himself was doubtless a man of much gift, though more civil than military, his subordinates, even if talented, rarely had any naval fighting experience at all, forcing Apraksin to coerce captured Swedish officers into helping out. In the 1711 Battle of Nargo, all those flaws showed themselves quite clearly as the powerful Swedish ship cannons sunk much of the Russian fleet early in the battle. The Swedish officers and crews on some of the Russian ships mutineed, increasing the panic. The battle was soon over, Russian naval might was eliminated and the Swedes were secure in their domination of the Baltic. An invasion of Estonia was launched, and luck, once again, was with the Swedes; Patrick Gordon had recently died of old age, while Tsar Peter was, as already mentioned, bed-ridden in Ivangorod. The defense of Revel was thus handled by Charles Eugene de Croy, a man of many enemies and little skill. The Swedes bombarded the city from the sea and captured it with the help from local Swedes and loyalists. After pondering his situation, Carl XII decided to leave the well-fortified Ingria to the Russians for now, and instead marched south, to relieve the long-suffering Lewenhaupt (who barely lingered on in Riga, saved only by the longer range of Swedish artillery). Livonia fell swiftly, with only a few battles, and Riga was indeed relieved; the Swedes advanced into Lithuania and were joined there by Jan Kazimierz Sapieha, fleeing from the south with a handful of retainers. Sapieha decided to throw his lot with the Swedes themselves; in return, Carl XII promised him kingship in Poland, which was formalised in 1712, after the Swedish victories at Dunaburg and Wilna (in the latter city, some more Polish nobles joined Carl XII with their levies, and they immediately recognised "Jan IV" as their king). Seeking to secure the southern Baltic coast, Carl XII marched westwards.

By then the Brandenburgers, though failing to seize Stralsund, had managed to retake East Prussia and Danzig, as well as large parts of western Poland (together with the Saxons and Potocki). Meanwhile, Elector Georg Ludwig of Hannover occupied the Bremen-Verden. Augustus II and Potocki themselves were in fact already in Warsaw, their allies in control of Krakow, although the konfederacja was very loosely-knit and uncoordinated, suffering from much strife. The Russians had overran all of "White and Little Russias", while the Austrians controlled Galicia and parts of southern Poland. Had all those forces coordinated their efforts against the Swedes efficiently, Carl XII would have been simply crushed. But the divisions - especially in the Polish ranks - gave him a very good opportunity, especially as Potocki learned of Augustus II's intentions to renege on his promise with Austrian help. Thus a major falling out occured when Augustus II invited the Austrians into Warsaw; Potocki refused to let them in, and Augustus II had to flee for his life with his retainers. As for Potocki, he promptly recognised Jan IV as king of Poland, signing an alliance with Carl XII. That, however, alienated many of his former confederates. Chaos increased, even more so with new rebellions behind the Austrian ranks; as the Austrians had to redeploy most of their forces to defend Vienna in that crucial year, they were unable to maintain any serious degree of control over the region. The Swedes and Potocki won a new series of victories... and then, three big events happened. Firstly, seeing that the Swedes were once more getting too ambitious, the British and the Dutch sent a powerful fleet into the Baltic, where it was joined by that of Denmark-Norway. This fleet defeated the divided Swedish one in the Battles of Rugen and Gotland, and severed the Swedish naval communications. Secondly, Menshikov's Russians occupied Lublin and Bialystok, creating a serious threat to Swedo-Potockite communications. Thirdly, France signed a separate peace treaty with Austria.

While the British and the Iroquois gradually overran New France, Louis XIV went on a full offensive in Europe. The Duke of Berwick captured Madrid, though the Habsburgs held out in Barcelona and in the south (where Prinz Karl found refuge at first), and proceeded to invade Portugal as well, wrecking much havoc, torching the countryside and generally taking advantage of Marlborough's ridicilous death in 1711. Castillian guerrilas soon retook much of the central countryside, although the Austrians, for their part, were able to recapture Valencia. The Huguenot rebels were mostly stamped out back in central France. Duc de Vendôme tried to invade Italy; there, however, the Allies were much stronger and so he had to settle for the capture of Nice instead. Central Germany saw a haphazard war of maneuver, poorly-coordinated Imperial, Dutch and British commanders attempting to disrupt France's "Bavarian corridor" to no avail. Along this corridor, more and more troops were thrown into the crucible of Austria.

For Austria was the worst of it all. A brutal positional war of attrition was being waged there, both sides secure in their positions, both sides discontent with them nonetheless. From Brunn to Klagenfurt - admittedly, most intensively in a much narrower area around Vienna - fortifications were erected and siege operations were conducted. Several huge battles occured, draining both forces but barely changing the overall situation. At first. For, you see, Louis XIV and his commanders commited to this brutal mode of operations quite intentionally, secure in the knowledge that France was stronger tahn Austria both militarily and economically. A generally superior siege and artillery corps helped. Over the course of 1711, the suburbs of Vienna were captured and the Austrians forced to fall back eastwards. Although Eugen von Savoyen did recapture Prague in a daring assault later in the year, he was unable to raise the siege of Vienna. The beautiful city came under severe bombardment, and Kaiser Josef himself died in 1712. Soon after that and a failed relief attempt (by then the French had established formdiable fortifications around the city itself as well), Vienna surrendered. Austria begun to unravel, with the Hungarian lords marching their levies back to Hungary (to defend it from Turkish attack, they later claimed). First the Vienna court and then Prinz Karl himself realised how desperate the situation was. So they signed peace - the Treaty of Turin, which was also signed by the lesser Imperial princes and Italian rulers.

It was an alternatingly outrageously harsh and surprisingly generous settlement. On the harsher side was Karl having to abandon all claims to Spain (or Aragon); and the utter disownment of the Count Palatine and his entire line was one of the most controversial decisions in European history (the Palatine's lands were used to reward the victors; France annexed the Palatinate itself, reviving its old claims that had led to the War of the League of Augsburg, and Bavaria got the rest - namely, Julich, Cologne, Neuburg, Sulzbach and some other nearby territories, in exchange for guaranteeing freedom of religion and existant local laws, sweetening the pill for the predominantly-Protestant populations, who received no such treatment from the French hands). The recognition of the "Partition of Spain" was neither, really; it was to be expected (for those who don't remember - the French formally annexed Spanish Netherlands, the Austrians formally annexed Spain's Italian possessions: Milan, Naples, Sicily, Sardinia and Stato dei Presidi). As was the French annexation of Lorraine. The protectorate over Liege was kinda controversial, but the French could've just annexed the Church land in the middle of Belgium straightforwardly, so it could've been worse. Now, giving all the other lands captured (in Savoy and Austria, and in southern Germany) back was definitely generous of Louis XIV. Not barring Karl from the Imperial elections was more like savvy, as was having Carlos III (now confirmed to be the duc de Berry) renounce his rights to the French throne. Still, those moves had helped balance France's prestige here.

Either way, Louis XIV got his peace - a peace with honour and lots of gains. The only ones fighting him now were the Dutch Republic, Portugal and Great Britain. Queen Anne was going to have kittens (alas, figuratively; had it been literal the British dynastic situation would have been slightly less complex). Admittedly, Hannover and Denmark-Norway soon formally rejoined the war, in thanks for British assistance in the Baltic (Georg Ludwig also wanted to improve his reputation in Britain), and even sent their expeditionary forces to help defend Holland; but Louis XIV showed little intention of settling that little score at present. No, instead he revelled in the glory of elusive victory that he had captured instead, and held lavish banquets, and feasts of epic proportions, and more-or-less literally drunk himself to death later in the year. Louis XV the Huge, formerly known as le Grand Dauphin, inherited. Neither adroit at nor interested in governing, he allowed Cardinal Melchior de Polignac - Louis XIV's master diplomat, who had engineered the masterstroke of having Sweden invade Poland - to consolidate power in his hands. With the anticlimatic death of Louis XIV (then again, he died at the height of his power, so it wasn't all that bad; but I digress), combined with lack of any real hope for reversing the French victories, Queen Anne's straggling semi-Whig government negotiated the Treaty of Lisbon with France in 1713, recognising the provisions of the Treaty of Turin, but also tricking the French into making several concessions outside of Europe; the British managed to take Ceuta, Trinidad, Puerto Rico and the entirety of New France, though paying a hefty sum for the latter (future French nationalist historians would decry this deal like no other in their country's history, though back then it was hailed as a great diplomatic victory in Paris and decried as a waste of money in London). The Eleven Years War was nearly over.

As for the Imperial elections, to the dismay of the Habsburgs, these were won by Maximilian II Emanuel. The explanations here are manifold. One of them was the Habsburgs being thoroughly discredited by their backfired foreign adventure and near elimination. Another was that they also had no money left. Another still was that they were less and less interested in German affairs, instead acquiring lands in Italy, Hungary and Poland; while by the same logic, the Bavarian elector, with lands all over Germany, was definitely the best choice. As for his less savoury deeds, these were ignored with extreme prejudice.

The Swedish portion of the war continued for a while more. Although all attempts to reverse the outcome of the Baltic naval campaign of 1712 had failed, the Swedes still managed to fight on with some efficiency; Horn retook Malmo and occupied parts of Norway, also thwarting a brief British amphibious invasion attempt, while Carl XII ran around in his by now familiar style, maneuvering broadly, beating everyone up spectacularily and achieving rather limited strategic results. Though in 1713 he did manage to establish control over the Vistula basin, he was consequently forced to pull back as the Brandenburgers (soon after promoted to Prussians, as in the Kingdom of Prussia, with Friedrich Wilhelm I - who rose to power in 1713 - as its first king) captured Thorn and the Austrians hurried to reclaim Krakow. More grave still was the Russian threat. Though Carl XII won a series of victories in 1713, his attempt to recapture Orsha was a pretty disastrous defeat, the Russians having fortified the city thoroughly and Peter I having recovered sufficiently to command his main army in person. In 1714, Carl XII, on the brink of total collapse but still coping stoically and winning tactical victories, finally agreed to sign a compromise peace, his own realm as exhausted as those of his enemies. The Austrian, Prussian, Saxon, Swedish and Russian diplomats - especially the cunning Russian diplomat Pavel Ivanovich Yaguzhinsky - had managed to work out "such a treaty that would, above all, hurt Poland most" (in the words of an embittered Polish nobleman and historian a few decades later). Admittedly, it hurt Sweden as well - the Swedes had to cede Ingria to Russia and Bremen-Berden to Hannover, while the Danes annexed Holstein-Gottorp - but all the other territorial transactions involved carving up the Polish lands. The Prussians annexed Danzig and West Prussia; the Austrians annexed Galicia and Krakow; the Swedes annexed Courland; and the Russians grabbed White and Little Russias, sans Volhynia. The Poles thus not only lost some of their core lands, but also all of Lithuania apart from its very core and Volhynia (OOC: imagine, if you will, a line running south from Lithuania's OTL modern eastern border until Galicia; that is Poland's new eastern border). The Saxons entered a closer union with Poland, and, much as feared, begun introducing absolutist reforms, taking advantage of the szlachta's weakened and disoriented state. The Swedes thus kept Western Pomerania as well as many other key locations all over the Baltic Sea.

Thus Europe came to a peace of exhaustion.
 
However, I do believe that Charleston and Atlanta played important parts, especially in Calhounite separatist movement.

The CSA's independence was declared in Alabama, but the capital was still in Virginia. Virginia was simply more modernized and more influential than any other southern state.
 
Virginia was simply more modernized and more influential than any other southern state.
Amen, brother!

Excellent TL, das - always enjoy reading your material (Go Sweden!) - though as a favor to a friend I was wondering if you could speculate on a small PoD: Prince of Wales Henry Frederick doesn't die early of typhus, and goes on to be the King of England.
 
In honor of Machiavelli, can someone make an alt-hist in which Cesare Borgia becomes Pope? :mischief:
 
BOO BOO!!! I dislike the parts you just listed! I despise Louis XIV with a passion and his victory leaves a sore taste in my mouth :p

Of course, I'm in no position to challenge any of what you wrote :(
 
Haven't got the time to read through all three threads, but has anyone done a POD on Guy Fawkes?

If the plot was successful, it would undoubtably start the English Civil War earlier. It would possibly create a war of succession, or it might just be Protestant vs. Catholic. There would be many massacres of Catholics in Ireland and that would have a large effect on current times. Also, after the civil war, the resulting purges (would happen if Protestants won) could set off a war with France or the Papal States.

Will add more thought when awake.
 
The CSA's independence was declared in Alabama, but the capital was still in Virginia. Virginia was simply more modernized and more influential than any other southern state.

Well, naturally, but it is precisely for that reason that it would make more sense to place the capital somewhere else, so that Virginia isn't too influential (maintaining the balance between various country parts is crucial in a confederacy). Plus Richmond is a bit too far to the north.

I despise Louis XIV with a passion and his victory leaves a sore taste in my mouth

What, pray tell, do you have against the Sun King? :p Especially as I recall you having his Civ IV pic for an avatar. ;)

If the plot was successful, it would undoubtably start the English Civil War earlier.

Very doubtably. The Catholics were just way too weak by then; I really doubt that they could launch anything more than a coup attempt, which has only the smallest chances of surviving the first few months. The only thing that could indeed work is a rebellion in Ireland.

One thing that comes to mind is that there shall definitely be a reaction, both political and personal; Charles I will probably be much more anti-Catholic, and the monarchy might take over the Puritan movement instead of opposing it. A Puritan theocratic monarchy in England would definitely be original.

Prince of Wales Henry Frederick doesn't die early of typhus, and goes on to be the King of England.

Very difficult to predict (not quite enough information), but here are some ideas:
- Both because he was the original heir apparent (and so more prepared) and because of his apparent (no pun intended) early promise, he is likely to generally handle things better than Charles I did (also because it would be hard to handle them worse). I somewhat doubt that he could avert the struggle with the Parliament, but suspect that he might erode its power more gradually and carefully instead of provoking it into rebellion.
- Less controversial religious policies. Although one couldn't avoid controversy entirely in early 17th century England, Charles I's personal quirks helped; a more "orthodox" or a more pragmatic monarch would likely avoid antagonising the Protestants so much, though Henry IX will probably not be as popular in the Catholic countries as his brother was in OTL.
- Buckingham's influence is going to be much weaker; this and the lack of the Spanish engagement is going to make English foreign policy much less awkward and opportunistic (in the negative meaning of the word). And that leads to the global PoD, ofcourse; England will likely involve itself in the Thirty Years War, on the Protestant side, and for real as opposed to sending some volunteers and offering political refuge to unassisted allies. I somewhat doubt that the English will commit much to the German and Dutch theatres, though. Instead, I suspect that they would do what the Dutch did, and chip away at the Spanish colonial empire, especially in the Carribean. They certainly could capture Jamaica earlier, at least. I also do believe that the English already entertained some designs on Gibraltar at this time. Nothing that can't be done...

And so we would have a stronger and more stable England (possibly heading towards an Absolute Monarchy variation), a bigger English colonial empire and a weaker and more impoverished Spain. I suspect that the OTL Franco-Spanish war (meaning the one after 1648) would be avoided, Portugal breaking away earlier and the French annexing some of the Spanish Burgundian possessions. I doubt that they could take Milan or Brussels, but I suspect that Franche Comte would be captured earlier. Then we get a stronger France as well, though this won't necessarily prevent the Fronde.

England would generally be able to lead a more consistant/pragmatic foreign policy, and would also retain a "native" dynasty. At the same time, closer ties with the Netherlands are possible. "King Frederick I" might even rule the "United Kingdom of England and Holland"; just remember how eagerly the Dutch searched for a foreign monarch before the late 17th century. Such a great colonial, commercial and naval power would be hard to overthrow. I do suspect that the English would pay less attention to continental affairs, especially as compared to the Early Hannoverians.
 
OOC: Not very inspired today, sorry.

IC:

PoD-for-the-day (#11 - March 22nd, 2007): Charles VIII REALLY wins the Battle of Fornovo, succesfully retreating to Genoa with his booty and later raising a new army. The subsequent drawn-out war sees the French secure both Genoa and Milan, though Naples remains out of reach and after Charles VIII's death the last hopes for a new crusade have to abandoned. Louis XII is able to maintain the French presence in northern Italy, gradually taking over parts of Savoy and defeating Swiss incursions as well. Particularily after securing a pragmatic alliance with Venice, France manages to achieve a de facto division of Italy into the northern French sphere of influence and southern Spanish sphere, neither side willing to exercise the effort needed to fully eject the other from the region. Swiss and Austrian expansion southwards is thwarted, and after a while the attention shifted elsewhere, the Spanish fighting the Turks and the Berbers for the Mediterranean while the Austrians (quite possibly reconciling and allying with the Swiss) pursue the cause of Imperial Reform, consolidating Habsburg power in the HRE. This clear difference in interests might have some interesting reprecussions, as Carlos I - better known as Karl V - might never become king of Spain, leaving it to some other Habsburg. In which case the aforementioned trends will increase further; Spain will concentrate on conquering the wider world (and Portugal), while Austria - which would keep the Burgundian lands - would be in position to possibly reunite the Holy Roman Empire as such. A more rpagmatic religious policy will definitely help.

After the HRE is reunited, though, things would get very interesting again as the Habsburgs, driven by the doctrine of Universalism, will pursue every hegemonic monarch's favourite pastime - world conquest, via uniting the two thrones and crushing all those who defy Imperial authority (see the debates of the High Middle Ages (John of Salisbury); only now, these will be settled on the battlefield). Only, the other European powers will likely suspect as much, and the mid-16th century might see a huge general European war against the Habsburgs ("the War of Spanish Succession"? "the War of Imperial Reform"? "the War of Habsburg Aggression"?).

As for France, it will probably strive to integrate its holdings and spend the early 16th century defending them from various threats; wars with the Habsburgs over periphereal territories are likely to occur as well. However, a war with England is avoidable; the same might well go for the Battle of Flodden, the absence of which would likely alter the balance in England considerably. Then again, a stronger France might try and tip the balance altogether; all it would need is some adroit dynastic marriages (possibly like the plan that existed in regards of Mary Stuart in OTL) and a good fleet. Basically, possibilities abound in the long-term.
 
Das, your next PoDotD better have Cesare Borgia becoming pope...:p
 
Tempting though it is, I already have a great idea for tommorow.
 
If you have a great idea, why didn't you use it today? :p

Stronger-France alternate histories just annoy me. I guess I've spent too much time reading The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers to believe that France is actually a viable power because of its need to concentrate on both land and sea; France just doesn't work as a thalassocratic state or a land power IMHO - look what happened to Boney...but it's a very good idea.
 
Will someone help me with this map? I'm going slightly insane trying to place the eco centers....

Spoiler :
bloodandsteel5gk.png
[/IMG]
 
Just make a general list of how many EC's per country, then place them in the areas that would have the biggest economic impact on the country.

Blood and steel eh? Where's the history for it.
 
@das: In that earlier map why did Britain and Chile not go the whole hog on Argentina (the chile taking the northern mountain provinces and britain the rest) - that chunk Britain took is 50-60% of the total argentine population already and all of the industry and ability to fight back :lol:. If anything going the whole hog will make things more managable than not, esp if they bring in settlers.
 
silver, that map makes my soul hurt...the Ottoman rise as it was was unbelievably fast and huge, why do they have Italy and most of Africa? Talk about an unlikelihood of epic proportions...;)
 
I'm sure silver has a great explanation, and even if he doesnt...its still cool!

Especially since the Ottomans are often screwed over in PoD's. Not always, just often.
 
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