You know that you can count me out
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon -Ricardo de Alava, on his death bed
Many had said, at the onset of the Peruvian wars of Independence, that things could have gone far worse for Spain. Spain still remained strong, centralized, and with a pragmatic and effective ruler. Those who resisted did so with knowledge that the odds of success were fairly low, but also that their interests were sincerely at stake. It was under these circumstances that Ricardo De Alava, only 54 years old, was shot and killed by an assassins bullet in the streets of Madrid.
Alava had already chosen his successor years past, and had made it known to King Fernando that in his stead, he desired Francisco de Paula Martinez de la Rosa to continue his policies. Fernando initially mourned the death of Alava, and it was a severe blow to the Kings efforts to keep his empire under control, but with the wars weighing on his mind, little time could be spared in extensive memorial services for the former Prime Minister. The reactionary Carlist who had killed him, José Manuel Vazquez, was executed in due course, but his death only seemed to galvanize the Castilian surroundings behind him as a martyr. Francisco de Paula assumed control in these increasingly unstable times, but set about dealing with the rebel threat as best he could. The transition looked as though it would be smooth, and it was back to business as usual.
All eyes were upon Peru; King Carlos represented both the symbolic and most tangible threat to Spanish authority, and it was upon him that Spains military focused its efforts. Spanish forces immediately, without waiting for reinforcements (as they trickled in from other parts of the empire) marched northward toward the temporary rebel capital of Trujillo, now a hotbed for reactionary and conservative Criollo resistance, under the command of General Jorge Zapatero. A ferocious battle ensued, as some 15,000 rebel soldiers squared off with 7,500 of Spains most elite forces who had been fighting the Carlist revolt well before it began in earnest. The rebels were not unprepared; surprisingly well informed about the specific battle plan of the enemy and its movements, and reinforced behind an extensive series of hastily constructed fortifications, the rebels were able to hold off the elite forces for quite some time, dealing casualties at a rate that the non-reinforced army could not afford to take. Despite all odds, the army was forced to retreat, having taken 1,500 casualties and inflicted 3,500 upon the enemy, but with negligible gain towards the capital city.
The rebels celebrated, and a native Argentinean (very rare, but not unheard of among the freedom fighters) led a contingent of the victorious forces northward to capture the yet untouched city of Quito. Many were unhappy with this forced march, still weary from a week of battle in the capital, but were relieved to find Quito mostly undefended by Spanish forces. Mostly. The Spanish still had preparations for an attack, and even when ten thousand rebels streamed against the city, held their own for a good two weeks before being forced to surrender, having killed nearly a fifth of the attackers. Still, the fall of Quito was yet another serious blow to the Spanish Empire, which had now lost the entirety of the coast from Trujillo to Bogotá.
The Spanish were not sitting idly by as all this occurred. Forces from the Carribean, Brazil, and La Plata were streaming toward the Carlist (and Asuncion) rebel areas, ready to overwhelm the outnumbered rebels with superior arms and training. La Paz saw the first surge of Spanish soldiers, as rebel forces in the surrounding areas were crushed and brutally tortured by the Spanish, embittered by their defeat at Trujillo. Still, Bolivia was brought securely under the Spanish yoke, and as the forces marched northward to Lima, King Carlos I could only bide his time and prepare further fortifications for what was to come.
The real staging ground of this initial phase of the war (Divided into roughly, February-June, for reasons later to be explained) would be in Venezuela, where both Spain and Simon Bolivar himself would focus the majority of their efforts. Bolivar himself a native Venezuelan, he and his forces fought with a vigor that matched the Spaniards training and expertise, and with considerable outside help in the area of intelligence, Bolivar seemed to be able to predict Spains moved before they made them. It would be at the city of Maracay that the combined Northern Armies of Bolivars forces, numbering over 20,000, would meet the Spanish reinforced forces from the Caracas garrison of nearly 17,000 forces under command of General Jaime Rodriguez, with some of the lesser trained men trickling in from the Carribean throughout. Bolivar had the home field advantage; his men knew the terrain, and fought for their independence under the most charismatic of the revolutions leaders. Spain fought with superior weapons and training, eclipsing the rabble of the mobilized Criollo militia with considerable organization. Therefore, it was little surprise that almost from the get go, the Spanish forces seemed to have the upper hand on the rebels. Bolivar, having very little past military experience, had trouble initially adapting to the realities of modern warfare outside of that which he had read in theory, not establishing as effective a command corps with adequate communications. The rebels lost the initial battle, forced to flee to Valencia (in Venezuela), where Bolivar once again attempted to put up a serious fight. The plains of the surrounding region, however, only seemed to put Bolivar at a further disadvantage, as he now had an inferior number of men to the Spaniards, and once again, with morale steadily dropping, Bolivar decided to fall back to the mountainous village of San Felipe to make his last stand.
The Spanish, sensing victory, marched incensed toward the rebel positions, disregarding the mountainous terrain and its disadvantageous effect upon their forces. Bolivar was quick to realize that his past defeats may have been more of a blessing, lulling the Spaniards into a false sense of security. As the Spaniards charged against the formidable rebel positions, it quickly became apparent that greater numbers would be necessary to uproot them from their position on high. Rather than fall back and allow time to gather his forces (which were somewhat stretched back, due to the quick retreat of the slightly more mobile Bolivarians) General Rodriguez instead ordered a continued assault of the fortifications, citing that attrition would wear them down and allow a speedy victory. Perhaps a tad vaingloriously and impatiently, Rodriguez desired a quick victory (especially as rival Spanish leaders gathered strength in Northern Columbia, and at the behest of the King) over one of prolonged maneuver and siege, a desire which would prove disastrous for both himself and his nation. Very quickly, the losses mounted on the Spanish attackers, and, despite their superior number and training, they found themselves plagued by an overabundance of wounded and an increasingly disgruntled and hastily assembled army. It should be noted that much of Spains forces fighting the rebels, were in fact of New World origin, and seeing that they were now dying in an attempt to restore Spanish honor, many were very displeased. Dissent grew in the ranks, and Rodriguezs officers pushed him to call for a retreat, even if it meant allowing the rebels a key victory on Venezuelan soil. Rodriguez would not relent, for that very reason that it would become symbolic of the rebel resistance to the crown, and demanded an all out assault on their fortifications (that would make OTL Pickett blush). As predicted, Spanish forces were cut down, but surprising numbers of casualties were dealt as Carlist forces ran low on ammunition and were forced into hand to hand combat to beat the Spaniards back down the mountain passes. Sensing that a complete rout of his own forces may be imminent, Rodriguez finally took his officers advice and retreated back to Caracas. The rebels had won a key victory, a complete one, (unlike the somewhat abortive attack on Trujillo) and Bolivar had personally overseen it on his own native soil.
(See the end for effects)
An Epidemic of Disaster
The ripple effect of the consequences of the battle of San Felipe were felt as far north as the duchy of Lawrance. The new Prime Minister, during this time had been distraught by the increasing tensions between the Cortes and the King, tensions which Ricardo de Alavas charisma had managed to keep in thorough balance. Beset by military defeats in the Americas, and the increasingly unruly reactionary populace of Castile, and infighting in the Cortes over which he now found himself responsible and accountable toward, Francisco de Paula Martinez de la Rosa resigned as Prime Minister in June of 1824. His mediocrity had dashed Fernandos expectations, and Fernando was at a loss for with whom to replace him. For nearly a month, Fernando ruled without a Prime Minister, taking a hands on approach to focus his attentions at home while building forces into the key strongholds (Caracas, Lima) which Spain still held on to in the Americas. It was at this time that a certain general, a bright young man by the name of Baldomero Espartero distinguished himself in campaigns against the Carlists of Castile, effectively crushing the bandits and establishing order in the troublesome lands. A very charismatic and patriotic figure, he quickly caught Fernandos eye. In late July of 1824, perhaps somewhat rashly, Fernando chose the General to serve as his new Prime Minister. Though despised in the countryside for crushing their Carlist hopes, Espartero quickly proved to be an able statesman, taking up the banner of liberalism and using his military experience to begin organizing the forces of the New World against the Carlist resistors.
It was about this time that the efforts of the Carlists, and the victory at San Felipe, began having greater implications across Spains holdings. In the Carribean in particular, where Spanish forces were quickly vacating to fight in Venezuela and Columbia, the whites had finally had enough of the radical Spanish policies. Cuba became the center of this sentiment, and declared its independence in August of 1824. The rebel leader, a man by the name of Ramón Artigas Flores de Santiago de Cuba, declared a conservative revolt in Havana, citing Spains radical racial policies, the empowerment of the black race (which was also in their eyes equal to whites) and the continued use of its people to fight its own battles (ineffectively) in the other possessions of South America. The Cubans managed to establish control by wresting it from the local Spanish garrisons (which had been severely depleted) in Havana, but in the wealthier (and more important) city of Santaigo de Cuba, Spanish forces were able to resist the somewhat disorganized and not nearly as motivated forces of the Cuban independence movement. Already, the movement seems to be faltering, much along the lines of the Asuncion rebels in the south. Still, riding on the coattails of the Carlist successes, and scaring its people with the threat of black insurrection or resurgence under Spanish rule, the Cubans are a force not to be ignored nor underestimated by the Spanish authorities.
In the Spanish possessions of Louisiana, the conflicts have grown even worse. The Kingdom of Georgia and Republic of Washington, having considerably rebuilt and re-stabilized after their bloody conflict, have still thus far resisted all out war with the Spaniards, mostly due to a fear of betrayal by the English (for Washington) or Washington (For Georgia). After the Spanish defeat at San Felipe, however, the Georgian King was forced to place considerable military forces on the border as a show of force, under the war Hero Andrew Jackson. Border clashes were almost immediate; Spanish and Anglo forces fought small skirmishes along the border, as refugees flooded from both sides, caught up in the middle of the struggle. The black population had been increasingly beset by violence; considerable portions of their property were seized by angry Anglo settlers and slave owners, and lynching had become common practice. Many blacks simply left Louisiana, and soon the influx of settlers from freed slaves (combined with the Cuban independence) simply stopped coming. The Anglos celebrated their victory, but did so under the hell of Spanish oppression, and yet their calls to their comrades to liberate them fell on deaf ears. Riots continued in the region, unabated due to a severe lack of Spanish soldiers as they piled southward and into Mexico to keep the more important colony under control.
The Duchy of Lawrence, clearly, has gained much from all of this. The disruption of trade in the lower Mississippi had redirected much of it Northward through such cities as Quebec, as refugees from the Ohio valley also enter the stable Duchy. Some have noted that the Duchy serves as a safe haven for Anglo and French settlers from the Ohio to launch raids on Spanish garrisons and people, and has been a sticking point in Lawrence-Spanish relations.
(See end for effects)
The Home Fronts
The heart of the beast has ceased beating
now is our time -Simón Bolivar
Espartero did not sit idly by as all this happened. Instead, he focused on consolidating that which was already firmly under control, especially the territories of Mexico, which, if brought to rebellion, would serve as the largest impediment to Spanish authority. Taking things somewhat slowly, yet effectively, the cities of Caracas and Lima were made into virtual fortresses and command centers, and loyalist forces from all across the empire were brought in, trained, integrated, and prepared for a push from both sides against Trujillo and Columbia. This did not please the King, who saw Espartero as far too patient, and different from his days as quick and effective pacifier of the Castille. The King repeatedly demanded more action from Espartero, insisting that quick and brutal force was the best way to crush the budding rebellion. Espartero disagreed, citing that time was on their side, as well as numbers, and that a haphazard campaign without full preparedness would only create a repeat of the San Felipe incident. Still, Fernando remained in control of the armies as a whole, something which frustrated Espartero to no end. It was in September and October of 1824 that Esparteros true colors were revealed, and it became apparent to Fernando that he had made a huge mistake.
Though a military man at heart, Espartero was still a fairly effective politician and patriot. As Prime Minister, his ties to the Cortes were readily tapped, and his political leanings not as a liberal monarchist, but a republican (and, some say, a radical), were made readily apparent. Galvanizing the Cortes behind him, Espartero approached the King with demands of considerable devolving of Monarchial power, citing that the principles of liberalism could not actively coexist with a King who had such final say and power over the true will of the people. Fernando was personally offended; at such a time that the Empire and Spanish Nation was at stake, with reactionaries close to victory, his closest advisor, a radical, would dare approach him and demand that he give up power to the mostly ineffective cortes? Fernando saw through the simple power grab, and gained the support of the conservatives in the Cortes to oppose Esparteros attempts to wrest control from the King. Espartero continued his political jockeying, mobilizing the radicals and intellectuals of Madrid to support him in his effort to move Spain away from its antiquated past toward effective, modern government. Fernando was incensed, but with his empire at stake, civilly accepted some of the demands of Espartero, quickly dismissing the demands that the military be put under joint control of the Monarchy and the Prime Minister. Confusion reigned, as Esperatero still was not done attempting to wrest military control from the King, and conflicting orders were issued to Spanish soldiers throughout the Americas from Fernando and Espartero, and soon the situation resulted in a complete stagnation of movement from the Spanish armies. Paralyzed by this internal quagmire, some commanders took the situation into their own hands, and a sizable force of men who had failed to take Trujillo earlier in the year, now reinforced, marched northward toward the city, attacking his southern breaches and laying siege to it.
The overall ineffectiveness of the military, and word of the radical attempt to seize power, reached many in the New world near the end of the year, and conservative support for rebellion burgeoned even more than before. In Mexico, rebel forces began acting openly, but could only do so as bandits and guerillas outside of the solidly Spanish held cities. Californians increasingly look upon their government in Madrid with a raised eyebrow, and some feel Terencio Hidalgo should just formally remove California from the fight, at least as a neutral party, until the Spaniards can get the situation under control. The paralysis of the military had the greatest effect in Louisiana, where the Georgian armies officially crossed the border and began slowly encroaching upon Spanish territory, bit by bit, testing their defenses and gaining more breathing space from which to allow the Anglo insurgents to operate against the Spanish authorities.
Brazil became one of the most volatile of regions; as Spanish soldiers flooded out, the already somewhat pressured Portuguese found themselves in dire need of more manpower, as the rebellious Brazilians saw their chance to revolt. The previous revolt a decade past had failed mostly due to the Spanish intervention, and now, carrying on where it had left off, the elites of Brazil jumped at the opportunity to finally cast off Lisbons control forever. Success was mixed; the Portuguese situation at home had improved considerably from the past, and the rebels were unable to seize control of Rio De Janiero, or the key North Eastern regions from the Portuguese armies. Still, decisive blows were dealt in the south and east, and the momentum has definitively shifted in their favor. Disunity among the rebels it their greatest weakness, as no single personality has yet to distinguish himself from amongst them, but if trends continue, the Portuguese may be in for another long fought out guerilla war with their rebellious rivals.
As it stands now, Spain looks set for a civil war. The conservatives and clergy, long discontent with some of Fernandos liberal policies, now look to be his greatest allies, while the liberals and radicals are looking increasingly toward Espartero to liberate them from the antiquated way of government. The militarys loyalties are equally mixed; but, were it not for the defeat at San Felipe, Fernando would in all likelihood command the loyalties of nearly all of them. Espartero is being increasingly viewed as an opportunist by his rivals, and as a liberator and pacifier by his allies, with those in the middle increasingly annoyed that their leaders cannot find ample solution to dealing with the American situation (Though Fernando looks to have an edge with them). Though both mens priority is the crushing of the reactionaries, their personal rivalries are increasingly becoming the rebellions greatest strength. Spain stands at a crossroads; liberals and conservatives, ultramontes and secularists, whites and mestizos battle for control of the nation, both at home and abroad. The vice royals and peninsulares of the colonies must also make the decision to stick with their homeland or separate, with Mexico being the largest indecisive factor of all of them. Civil war would likely mean the end of Empire as a whole, and, even though neither side desires it, more are increasingly seeing it as inevitable.
Spain:
(-2 Government efficiency, -1 Economy, -2 Confidence, -4 Infantry (Disciplined), -10 Infantry (Rabble), -2 Guards (Regular), -3 Infantry (Regular), -4 Dragoons (Green), -1 Dragoon (Rabble))
Georgia:
(-3 Infantry (Green), -1 Infantry (Untrained) +5 Infantry (Rabble, Anglo resistors)
Lawrence
(+1 Economy, +Quebec ( I think, the map is seriously messed up) EC
Peru:
(-8 Infantry (Rabble), -3 Infantry (Untrained), -1 Dragoon (Disciplined))