Murky Waters Grand War Plan
Erkon asked me to outline a war plan for us, so that we can align and have a common understanding of what units we need where and when. Read it as a first proposal - I would be happy to amend it according to suggestions or events in the game.
Background
The AIs don't know that they are at war with us. This means that a) they consider one unit to be a sufficient garrison in all but a few key cities, and b) that they will stay in expansion mode until they enter a war against another AI. They might switch to unit production if we have units within 2 tiles of their city. (Klarius, please correct me if I have misunderstood all the things above.)
There are some hefty distances involved. Here is a brief rundown:
Murky Waters -> Beijing: 9 water tiles + 16 land tiles
Murky Waters -> Madrid: 9l+2w+6l+2w+15l or 9l+11w+15l
Murky Waters -> Delhi: As Madrid +1l
Murky Waters -> Pasargadae: As Delhi +6l
Murky Waters -> Kyoto: As Delhi + 6l
...
In addition, some of the land tiles are forest/hills that will slow mounted units (exception: Keshiks).
Taking AI cities defended by a single archer will be EASY. Two Axes/Swords/Keshiks should be a guarantee of success, and even a single unit has good odds when the defense bonuses are low.
Some AI cities, most notably hill cities with a size 2 garrison, or with other units than archers, may be more difficult.
Question: Do the AIs get the same combat bonus against us as against the barbs?
Main strategy
I suggest a strategy based on three stages:
I. Quick conquest of lightly defended cities using Keshiks
We don't raze everything. Ideally, we keep one city per continent and use it to locally produce foot soldiers (swords, spears, axes, whatever the situation dictates, maybe additional Keshiks). It is important to connect this city to our horses and copper, so a coastal or river city is preferrable.
It is difficult to be sure at this stage, but I suspect that 2-3 Keshiks could pick off city after city even without any reinforcements.
II. Pillaging around strongholds and picking off settlers
Once we have picked off the soft targets we should neutralize the AI research and production as much as possible while we gather our forces for the final assaults. Pillaging of strategic resources, cottages etc. This might be a good time for a short peace to alleviate WW and lure out some settlers with escorts.
III. Main assault against strongholds
We should have gathered a strong force here, either produced in MW-land, or more optimally some local recruits.
As always when going for a quick conquest, gathering momentum early is important. No, let me clarify: it is crucial. A delay of one turn for the first attack can lead to a difference in finish date of 50 turns or more. Erkon and I have lots of examples of this. The sooner we can attack, the better. If we can attack now with warriors or 20 turns later with axemen we should use the warriors. Every delay could potentially mean a culture expansion, a strategic resource connected, or a new tech (Feudalism!) researched by our target.
AIs are notoriously poor at fighting, I expect them to be even sillier than usual when they think we are barbarians.
Early momentum is especially important against AIs with good potential for expansion or trade. In this game, this means Toku/Isa/Cyrus/Asoka. That is why I believe that we must focus our strategy on being as quick as possible in getting troops there. The others have poorer locations, although Saladin has been spared of the barbarian onslaught and already hs four cities. It is not unlikely that he could self-research Feudalism soon, and that means trouble. Qin is struggling, though this might change, and Alex is too far away to be much to do about right now.
Units
Obviously, Keshiks are excellently suited to stages I and II. They can get there fast, move around fast inside enemy culture, and pack a great punch against anything but spears. For stage III we will likely be needing some swords or axes, especially if the enemy has other defenders than archers. Researchwise, HBR followed by IW should match these requirements nicely.
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