56: Enter Tokuland. Declare war.
57: A chariot presents itself alone to my advancing stack. 70% odds. I attack. If I bypass it, he'll probably just retreat, and hopefully I'll win and get to promote the axeman to recover some of the damage.
Praying to the RNG gods......
Win! With 3.2 health left, and with 3 xp to show for it.
58: The real moment of truth. I will now move next to Kyoto, and in doing so, learn a great deal about my chances for this game.
2 archers = home free
3 archers = ehhhhhhh I'm probably ok
4 archers = I'm so screwed.
and........
TWO ARCHERS! THERE IS A GOD AND HE LOVES ME. But one of them has CG2. Ew.
59: He didn't build another archer. Dodged that bullet. Now......
against the CG2 archer, my skirmishers only have a 1% chance, my axemen 5.4%.
First suicide skirmisher => No damage. And my god they shot at each other forever.
2nd skirmisher: no damage.
I try an axeman. 5.4% odds Please do something. BOOM HEADSHOT WIN. Dancing ensues.
3rd skirmisher, 3.1% odds: Drops the CG1 archer to 1.2. All right!
2nd axeman, 98% odds: takes Kyoto.
Inventory: 4 axemen left, 2 injured. 1 skirmisher left. Time to take out Osaka before it gets a border pop or a second archer.
60: I decide to wait 2 turns to get the two slightly injured by promoted axemen before taking Osaka. Osaka is size 1, and has no good tiles to work, so I'm hoping no archers will pop out.
Trivia time: cities in revolt still count towards your unit cap before expenses. Yay.
62: I go to attack osaka with all 6 troops, and find toku has a second archer. Sigh.
Inventory:
4.6 strength CR2 axe
4.6 strength CR1 axe
4.5 strength CR1 axe
2 unpromoted axes
1 skirmisher
I think I can do it, but I'm going to throw the unpromoted axes in first, rather than the skirmisher. Kyoto taught me that a few first strikes don't help when the odds are that low.
First axe, 6.6% odds: RNG smiles upon me yet again. Brought the archer down to 1.1! I got this for sure.
Second axe, 15.4% odds (I forgot, he's not dug in! bonus! I had nothing to worry about): Only brought him down to 2.5 though.
My top axeman still has less than even odds, so the skirmisher suicides to take him to .1
Mop up, and... I get the option to keep the city. I thought it would auto-raze at size one, but I guess that's only barb cities.
I think long and hard, but I burn it down. I'm making a settler right now, and I don't think I can support 4 cities this early. Plus the city sucks without a border pop - and I don't have mysticism - and it's only average at best after the border pop.
And Toku leaves the game.
That was exhausting. The skirmishers were a mistake. Woulda been better off with 3 more axes than 4 skirmishers.
65: IW -> alphabet
69: third city founded
76: perhaps I should have kept Osaka after all...
80: I get the herbalist event. uhhhhhhhh. I'd normally take the agressive option without thinking twice, but that'll seriously mess with my growth here. I take the aggressive option anyways.
ick. Neither Joao nor Roosy founded a religion. I was hoping to leech off them...
89: missed conf by one turn. Ugh.
Joao expanded like.... well, like an expansive, imperialistic leader would. Icky. Not keeping Osaka was a huge mistake I think.