Okay, here we go. Looks like an exciting turn-set.
Turn 0: Change the research to Iron Working. Hit enter.
Turn 1:
Oracle done, choose Metal Casting as planned. I'm tossing up whether to build an axeman or a settler, as we have a very useful chop which speeds things up. I decided upon an Axeman to give Beijing a bit more of a chance to grow, and we'd need one to escort the Settler anyway, if we choose against two new cities then we have an Axeman. Okay, 74 turns until a Great Prophet comes up, 74 turns for this settler to finish and to build a forge and run a GE for 50 turns (which is apparently enough). This means we'll need a few more chops to rush the settler, ah well. I also take a warrior off the backburner in case I forget about it later.
Turn 2: I get the worker over at Beijing to connect our cows.
Turn 3: Start a chop at Shanghai, Beijing hits size 5, I've turned on avoid growth but done some micromanagement which has us with 1 less commerce but 4 extra hammers. So future people remember to change that later on when we get a few more happiness over there.
Turn 4: Axeman done in Beijing, start on Settler. Axeman is going to go to our 'block Joao' city spot to fogbust.
Turn 5: hi
Turn 6: nothing
Turn 7: Settler done in Shanghai, start on a Forge, chop due in two. Then the worker is going to the new city to chop a quick monument.
Turn 8: Nothing to see here, move right along
Turn 9: Worker in Beijing starts to mine a forested hill, chop first then a mine.
Turn 10: Our wolfkiller proves he's more than the name bargained for
Turn 11:
Woo!

Worker starts chopping a spice forest to get that monument up. I have the axeman defending the city to dissuade Joao from using that chariot for offensive reasons. For now the escorting warrior is going up north to see what Joao does about our little blocking city. Also, I must have missed it, but the Ethiopians have a fany wall around their borders, which will mean a great wall. Maybe I just don't read turn reports properly enough

Oh, with the new city we're down to breakeven 70% research so I say that we delay on a 4th city for now
Turn 12: Forge is done, I start on an axeman and we're running an engineer =] Oh, Guangzhou asks to join the Portoguese and I accept because I'm so nice...but not really, hehe.
Turn 13: Nothing, except the exciting news that we're on top in score
Turn 14:
Hmm, interesting. Looks like Joao needs to keep expanding. I feel he's either going to settle in place or one of the two yellow dots for the clams.
Turn 15: They ended up settling in place, which could give us some cultural problems in the future. Settler is done, I'm not going to do anything with him for now, I'll leave it up to the group to decide when/where to place it. I start Beijing on an Axeman. Shanghai has an Axeman due in 1 turn, it also just reached size 4, which is its limit. I suggest a worker after the axeman is done. Monument should be done in 4 turns if my calculations are correct. We do have a problem on the eastside, as they're expanding quicker than we want. So we may need to use the settler right now for a quick holding action and to grab some prime land, even if we end up down to 60(or even 50)% science.
If we got all three (highly unlikely) we'd have a great border, but I'm not going to aim that high. If we settled grey dot we'd also be sharing 5 tiles with city b if we settled that also. Red dot is quite a way away from our capital, so we'd need some courthouses or something, or terrible science. So honestly the best bet would be to settle blue dot, except it's not on the coast. And we'd need to settle before Iron Working, which could have made our decision much easier.Of course if we can nab Machinery early enough hopefully we can take some land by force.
Reccomended tech path:
Iron Working -> Archery -> Fishing/Agriculture -> Beeline to Calendar
quick edit: ignore the horses comment for grey dot

quick edit 2: save may be useful