Recession Watch: July

Sorry for the double post, but this made my day.

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And they said it couldn't be done...

Sweden adopts negative interest rates on reserves (sort of)

UPDATE 2-Sweden cuts rates to new low, offers banks loans
07.02.09, 06:03 AM EDT

By Niklas Pollard and Mia Shanley

STOCKHOLM, July 2 (Reuters) - Sweden's Riksbank cut interest rates to a fresh record low on Thursday and offered 100 billion crowns ($13.2 billion) of loans to banks to foster lending as it pulled out the stops to reverse its worst recession since the 1940s.

The central bank lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25 percent in a surprise move, putting official rates their lowest since records began in 1907, and said it expected rates to remain at that level until late 2010.

'It's a double whammy, or even a triple whammy,' said Roger Josefsson at Danske Markets.

'The deposit rates are actually negative now. In some sense they are creating a money machine for banks. You can lend all you want, but don't put that back into the central bank.'
 
The money quote from that story:

"the situation on the financial markets is still not completely normal"
 
Wait, non-positive? How does that work/mean for the average layman....me.
 
Wait, non-positive? How does that work/mean for the average layman....me.

Layman's version:
With positive interest rates, you give the bank a dollar/euro/pound/yen today and they give you $1.05 a year from now.

With negative interest rates, you give the bank a dollar/euro/yen today and they give you $0.95 a year from now.

This is a bit different in that it deals with the central bank's policy on reserves, but the idea's the same (just instead of it being you and [Your Local Bank], it's between [Your Local Bank] and [Your Central Bank]). So in the US, banks (currently) get interest for placing their excess reserves with the Fed (I think it's like 25 bps interest nowadays). Effectively, you're penalizing banks for holding excess reserves, and forcing them to lend. Negative nominal interest rates are...rare, to say the least. I'm not sure if they've ever been tried in a developed country.

Here's the reaction of a monetary economist on the issue:
Now I should offer a number of caveats here, as I don’t know much about the details:

1. The biggest problem may be vault cash. There is no indication that is covered. Perhaps the Riksbanks has some way of dealing with that issue. I believe Sweden has only a few banks, and I am guessing that the Riksbank could easily prevent a build up of vault cash if they wished to.

2. There is no indication that the Riksbank intends aggressive QE, as the 13.2 billion is being “offered” to banks, not forced down their throats as I’d prefer.

3. I’m not sure QE is needed in a country like Sweden in any case; they can always boost AD as much as they wish through currency depreciation.

4. The krona only depreciated by about 1%. This is not a foolproof indicator, but it suggests to me that the markets saw it as merely a modest step.

I actually think a negative rate on reserves could do even more good in the US. We have something closer to a closed economy model, by which I mean that for all sorts of political reasons the Fed probably does not view currency depreciation as a viable policy instrument. In that case we need domestic reflation. In addition, there are already massive excess reserves in the US, so with a negative rate on reserves we could expect banks to engage in large purchases of assets with those reserves. Even if they just bought T-bonds, it would slightly lower yields, and also push more money out into circulation.

I know the Riksbank’s move is just a tiny step, but so far as I know this is the first time any real world central bank has adopted the proposal we have been discussing on this blog. (At least recently, I recall that Switzerland once tried this idea.) And Lars Svensson is on the cutting edge of macro, if he was behind this decision it bodes well for the future acceptability of the negative interest on reserves concept.
source
 
Layman's version:
With positive interest rates, you give the bank a dollar/euro/pound/yen today and they give you $1.05 a year from now.

With negative interest rates, you give the bank a dollar/euro/yen today and they give you $0.95 a year from now.


This is a bit different in that it deals with the central bank's policy on reserves, but the idea's the same (just instead of it being you and [Your Local Bank], it's between [Your Local Bank] and [Your Central Bank]). So in the US, banks (currently) get interest for placing their excess reserves with the Fed (I think it's like 25 bps interest nowadays). Effectively, you're penalizing banks for holding excess reserves, and forcing them to lend. Negative nominal interest rates are...rare, to say the least. I'm not sure if they've ever been tried in a developed country.

Here's the reaction of a monetary economist on the issue:

source

I knew that, but I didn't know what it would mean for a central bank
 
I knew that, but I didn't know what it would mean for a central bank

Heck, I'm still trying to wrap my head around it. It's an exciting time for monetary policy, at least...
 
Sweden adopts negative interest rates on reserves (sort of)

STOCKHOLM, July 2 (Reuters) - Sweden's Riksbank cut interest rates to a fresh record low on Thursday and offered 100 billion crowns ($13.2 billion) of loans to banks to foster lending as it pulled out the stops to reverse its worst recession since the 1940s.

Fools! The problem is debt. More lending, more debt, won't improve anything. won't even stem the troubles. Whats the point of giving away money to banks when banks don't consume products, just shift money around? How does that help production and employment?

That money may be lent, all right. But to whom? Unless banks are willing to lend at a loss to (not gonna happen!) it won't increase the income of real consumers. The profits to me made from any loans which do happen (and which will be made to people who can be expected to repay them anyway) will simply accumulate with the assets of the already wealthy. Who are not going to consume any more because of that, as they use their excess money for investment, or speculation, or ultimately further accumulation.

Governments are in full suicide mode.

Effectively, you're penalizing banks for holding excess reserves, and forcing them to lend.

It can't work, for two reasons.
One: should it really be tried (and it isn't yet, whatever the press may have said about the swedes) people would simply pull their money away from banks. That would be the end of capitalism, as capital effectively ceased to circulate.
Two: even if one didn't happen (extended "bank holiday"?) the money is still being lent. It's not being given away. As such the real incomes of consumers remain unchanged, as do their long-term ability to consume. Debts must eventually be repaid, we'd expect that bankers had learned that by now, after the events of the past year... :rolleyes: The difficulty isn't with the bank's willing to lend, or with the lack of money. It's with people's ability to take loans!

This is a crisis caused by income distribution problems, and outdated views towards labour. Labour is viewed only as a cost to be reduced, and governments have been blind to the fact that it is a fundamental part of the economic cycle, and that "reducing costs" there, as a systematic practice, compromises the whole structure of the economy. The whole mess started when management views changed from seeing a company's main goal as that of making a product to seeing the main goal as that of making profits. Making profits is a necessity, a constraint, not a goal.
The end result, inevitably, was banks selling contracts as "financial products"... calling financial contracts a product, and trading on it, is an offense to the real productive economy.

/weekly rant
 
Fools! The problem is debt. More lending, more debt, won't improve anything. won't even stem the troubles. Whats the point of giving away money to banks when banks don't consume products, just shift money around? How does that help production and employment?

That money may be lent, all right. But to whom? Unless banks are willing to lend at a loss to (not gonna happen!) it won't increase the income of real consumers. The profits to me made from any loans which do happen (and which will be made to people who can be expected to repay them anyway) will simply accumulate with the assets of the already wealthy. Who are not going to consume any more because of that, as they use their excess money for investment, or speculation, or ultimately further accumulation.

Governments are in full suicide mode.



It can't work, for two reasons.
One: should it really be tried (and it isn't yet, whatever the press may have said about the swedes) people would simply pull their money away from banks. That would be the end of capitalism, as capital effectively ceased to circulate.
Two: even if one didn't happen (extended "bank holiday"?) the money is still being lent. It's not being given away. As such the real incomes of consumers remain unchanged, as do their long-term ability to consume. Debts must eventually be repaid, we'd expect that bankers had learned that by now, after the events of the past year... :rolleyes: The difficulty isn't with the bank's willing to lend, or with the lack of money. It's with people's ability to take loans!

This is a crisis caused by income distribution problems, and outdated views towards labour. Labour is viewed only as a cost to be reduced, and governments have been blind to the fact that it is a fundamental part of the economic cycle, and that "reducing costs" there, as a systematic practice, compromises the whole structure of the economy. The whole mess started when management views changed from seeing a company's main goal as that of making a product to seeing the main goal as that of making profits. Making profits is a necessity, a constraint, not a goal.
The end result, inevitably, was banks selling contracts as "financial products"... calling financial contracts a product, and trading on it, is an offense to the real productive economy.

/weekly rant

1) this policy really is stupid
2) you are complicating to much (and you are including too many irrelevant stuff into this)

I mean, come on
all these "financial products" are just one way money is transferred from savings to the "real economy"
and there is nothing inherently wrong with them
nothing is inherently wrong with securitization, mortgages, credit cards and so on

bubble just had to be inflated and burst somewhere with modern day monetary policy
 
I think you guys are missing one thing. In the Swedish case it's also about competitive devaluation. Sweden these days is incredibly dependent on exports. They run a big current account surplus. Now, what's the difference with the US, the Eurozone, UK, China etc.? Sweden has a small economy. Nobody really cares what they do. And that enables them to run policies that said other economic regions never could run in that way. I believe that they try to keep the level of exports as high as possible through the devaluation of their currency.
 
1) this policy really is stupid
2) you are complicating to much (and you are including too many irrelevant stuff into this)

I mean, come on
all these "financial products" are just one way money is transferred from savings to the "real economy"
and there is nothing inherently wrong with them
nothing is inherently wrong with securitization, mortgages, credit cards and so on

bubble just had to be inflated and burst somewhere with modern day monetary policy

Calling it "products" is wrong - in my mind at least products are tangible goods.
Trading on it with speculative purposes is wrong. The first was used to facilitate the second. Did you notice also how bankers and politicians talk about the "financial industry"?

There was a reason why these words ("products" and "industry") were used: they helped build the illusion that somehow the trading of those contracts created wealth. The reality is that it would take a view very kindly disposed towards the "financial industry" to consider it even a provided of useful services. Most of the trades were speculative loops.

I believe that they try to keep the level of exports as high as possible through the devaluation of their currency.

That would make sense. An unemployment crisis in industry will be multiplied in services jobs. That's the delayed part of this Depression, which I believe will hit hard during the next year or so.
 
One last on the unemployment report from today -

stimulus-vs-unemployment-june-dots.gif

(hopefully the graph is showing up this time...)
 
One last on the unemployment report from today -

stimulus-vs-unemployment-june-dots.gif

(hopefully the graph is showing up this time...)

Yikes.

Worse than we thought? I thought the prediction of not seeing sub-5% unemployment until 2014 was bad...
 
ISM services index is out.

June 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 47%


DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of June 2009.



Business Activity Index at 49.8%
New Orders Index at 48.6%
Employment Index at 43.4%


(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in June, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Hotels Corporation. "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 47 percent in June, 3 percentage points higher than the 44 percent registered in May, indicating contraction in the non-manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month, but at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 7.4 percentage points to 49.8 percent. The New Orders Index increased 4.2 percentage points to 48.6 percent, and the Employment Index increased 4.4 percentage points to 43.4 percent. The Prices Index increased 6.8 percentage points to 53.7 percent in June, indicating an increase in prices paid from May. This is the first time the index has registered above 50 percent since October 2008. According to the NMI, six non-manufacturing industries reported growth in June. Respondents' comments continue to be mixed and tend to be industry- and company-specific about business conditions."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)
The six industries reporting growth in June based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance(!!!); Construction; and Information. The 11 industries reporting contraction in June — listed in order — are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Educational Services; and Other Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
"Business has improved and holding steady." (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)

"Activity level is flat. Clients are delaying capital spending decisions." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)

"Economy may be stabilizing. Second half looks more positive than first half." (Information)

"Have begun spending government stimulus funding, and expect conditions to gradually improve in the near future." (Public Administration)

"Occupancy levels continue to increase at a slow pace." (Accommodation & Food Services)

"Activity is still slow and little has changed since last month." (Wholesale Trade)
So the non-manufacturing sector is still in decline, but at a much slower rate (blah blah second derivatives, no surprises there, etc.). It is encouraging that the Business Activity index is nearly breaking the expansionary barrier.

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In more sobering news, the unemployment rate (9.5%) is now well beyond the 'more adverse' scenario of 8.8%.
 
guys,

Remember that Unemployment typically is a lagging indicator for the economy. The unemployment rate often gets worse as the actual economy gets better, because there are timing issues involved. That said, we're going to get to 10+% and the prospects of a jobless recovery seem much higher.

And Inna, if you stopped lending right now the deflationary impact would be catastrophic. The problem isn't in the practice, its in the lack of proactive regulation and a truly independent oversight agency.
 
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