ALC Game #26: Willem van Oranje/Dutch

It's to do with reciprocal fractions: in essence, it's explained by the fact that it takes an increase of 20% to get from 5 to 6, but a decrease of 16.67% to get from 6 to 5. Hence the 20% 'bonus' is converted into a 16.67% 'penalty'; in actual terms, the percentages are equivalent.

Good catch on the city bonus; it's not quite as big a difference in outcome as I'd advertised, in that case. Of course, the advantage with Combat I is that it works in the field as well :)

I never realized the attackers odds get converted from numerator to denominator on a percentage equivalent basis.
I'll have to check POM's attack odds output in BUFFY next time.
 
Hmm, that seems like a very odd way of calculating it. But I'll take your word for it.

I agree that reducing the defender's strength is odd generally, but if they're going to do it that way, it has to be a reciprocal fraction. If you think about scenarios in which the attacker has a 100% bonus (CR3 shock axe vs axe in a city, for example) the defender's strength would be reduced to nothing at all if an actual 100% penalty were applied to the defender. Clearly, this doesn't happen, so it's a reciprocal 50% penalty instead.
 
About the dagger AI strategy
Spoiler massive quoting...open at your own risk :
WHEOOHRN means that the AI changes its war plan for another player from NO_WARPLAN to one of the following:
  • WARPLAN_PREPARING_LIMITED
  • WARPLAN_PREPARING_TOTAL
  • WARPLAN_LIMITED
  • WARPLAN_TOTAL
  • WARPLAN_DOGPILE
Normally it enters a phase of preparation (WARPLAN_PREPARING_LIMITED, WARPLAN_PREPARING_TOTAL). Then it also changes the battle plan that is somehow linked to its homeland (capital area) from AREAAI_NEUTRAL to AREAAI_MASSING or AREAAI_ASSAULT_MASSING depending on whether the victim is located on the same landmass or not. After a fixed number of turns it checks whether it has accomplished to spam enough offensive units to attack (I have also described it in this post to understand what was going on in Sisiutil's ALC#24). If yes the battle plans change to AREAAI_OFFENSIVE / AREAAI_ASSAULT and the war plans change to WARPLAN_LIMITED or WARPLAN_TOTAL which is followed by the actual DoW. If the AI's empire is too big (like Saladin's) and the army is not ready after the allowed number of turns of preparation it calls off all war plans and changes back to NO_WARPLAN (no more WHEOOHRN).
Note, if the AI is following the Dagger strategy at the moment it chooses a war, it skips the whole preparation for total and limited wars and will somehow be ready instantly and DoW shortly after.

Every AI player chooses a set of strategies according to its personality and the current situation in the game. There are 20 different strategies, iiuc they mainly determine what the AI chooses to build in its cities, how it adjusts its sliders and how it behaves when it comes to starting wars:
  1. AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER
  2. AI_STRATEGY_SLEDGEHAMMER
  3. AI_STRATEGY_CASTLE
  4. AI_STRATEGY_FASTMOVERS
  5. AI_STRATEGY_SLOWMOVERS
  6. AI_STRATEGY_CULTURE1
  7. AI_STRATEGY_CULTURE2
  8. AI_STRATEGY_CULTURE3
  9. AI_STRATEGY_CULTURE4
  10. AI_STRATEGY_MISSIONARY
  11. AI_STRATEGY_CRUSH
  12. AI_STRATEGY_PRODUCTION
  13. AI_STRATEGY_PEACE
  14. AI_STRATEGY_GET_BETTER_UNITS
  15. AI_STRATEGY_LAND_BLITZ
  16. AI_STRATEGY_AIR_BLITZ
  17. AI_STRATEGY_LAST_STAND
  18. AI_STRATEGY_FINAL_WAR
  19. AI_STRATEGY_OWABWNW
  20. AI_STRATEGY_BIG_ESPIONAGE
Everybody starts with AI_STRATEGY_PEACE in the beginning, but this actually has no effect on anything (nothing implemented in the code). As mentioned earlier in this thread there is some pseudo randomness in the form of the iNonsense variable which depends on the position of the AI's capital on the map (it's the sum of the capital's X and Y coordinates, so it is fixed for the whole game as long as the capital isn't moved). Its influence is mostly implemented in the form x = y + (iNonsense%z), with % being the modulo-operator, so it allows variation in the range [0...(z-1)].

The requirements for AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER are:

general:
  • not AI_STRATEGY_MISSIONARY
  • "early" in the game ( iCurrentEra <= (2+(iNonsense%2)) which means upto Medieval / Renaissance )
  • must have met others
  • must have iParanoia > 0 (due to the self-closeness bug this is always true after the AI has made contact with someone it is cautious or lower with)
Leader's personality:
  • MWR = MaxWarRand, FM = AI_FLAVOR_MILITARY, NF(NonsenseFactor) = (iNonsense % 11)/10 :
  • iDagger = 120 * 100/(MWR+50) * NF + 5 * Min(8, FM);
    Example: Ragnar MWR = 50, FM = 10, Nidaros @ (X=30,Y=31) --> iNonsense = 30+31 = 61; NF = (61 % 11) / 10 = 0.6
    iDagger = 120 * 100/(50+50) * 0.6 + 5 * Min(8, 10) = 72 + 40 = 112;​
iDagger is further modified for military Unique Units (all except Indian Fast Worker):
  • -10 for defensive UUs (Mali Skirmisher, Babylon Bowman)
  • Capital can build UU?:
    +40 (+10 for defensive UU)
    +20 for each :strength: the UU is stronger than the replaced unit (WarChariot, Vulture, Praetorian, Cataphract, East Indiaman, no penalty for Jaguar)
    +20 if UU has no PrereqTech (Incan Quechua)​
  • Capital cannot build UU?:
    +10 / +30 if PrereqTech is / is not known
    +20 if AI has all required resources to build UU​
AggAi off? +5 / +10 / +15 for Prince / Monarch / Emperor+

already at war (AREAAI_OFFENSIVE, AREAAI_DEFENSIVE)?
  • +40 if capital can build offensive units (UnitAIs: RESERVE, ATTACK_CITY, COUNTER, PILLAGE)
  • +20 if capital cannot build offensive units (-->AI_STRATEGY_GET_BETTER_UNITS)

CHECK: iDagger >= AI_DAGGER_THRESHOLD (100) --> AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER!

So all the warmongers with strong offensive UUs are likely to follow Dagger strategy until medieval/renaissance era.

Example1: Ragnar from above can build Berserkers in Nidaros, AggAI off Immortal difficulty, not at war
iDagger = 112 + 40 + 20*0 + 15 = 167 >= 100 --> AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER

Example2: Willem (MWR=100, FM=0), Amsterdam @(44,12) can build East Indiaman, AggAI off Deity difficulty, not at war
iDagger = 120 * 100/(100+50) * 0.1 + 5 * Min(8, 0) = 8 + 0 = 8; for personality
iDagger = 8 + 40 + 20*2 + 15 = 103 >= 100 --> AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER

Example3: Gandhi (MWR=400, FM=0), Delhi @(22,21), AggAI off Prince difficulty, currently fighting defensive war, can build Musketmen (UNITAI_RESERVE)
iDagger = 120 * 100/(400+50) * 1 + 5 * Min(8, 0) = 13 + 0 = 13; for personality
iDagger = 13 + 5 + 40 = 58 < 100 --> no Dagger



When it comes to war, IMHO the main effect of AI_STRATEGY_DAGGER is the skipping of the preparation phase, which means that Dagger-AIs that changed war plans to Limited or Total Wars will never call those plans off again (so Saladin was no Dagger in ALC#24). I'm not really sure about what determines the interval between the war plan change and the actual DoW (=you get WHEOOHRN before the war). I guess it depends on where their SoD is located and how long it takes to march it to your borders (DoW = crossing borders). If there are any obstacles in the SoD's path (like impassable mountains) it could be that the AI is locked in WHEOOHRN forever.

Late in the game (industrial+ era) Dagger isn't a valid strategy for the AI anymore. This means that they will always enter a phase of preparation after they have chosen to start a war, so a decision for a war due to dropped relations followed by an immediate DoW is not possible (sudden DoWs can still happen but are the result of random events or diplomatic actions = bribing, AP + UN forced wars, Stalin can be bribed to DoW someone he is pleased with [those Russians...]). So I guess Stalin decided to go to war (most likely a Total War, his MaxWarRand is 100) with you at least 10 turns earlier (depending on game speed). His attitude "Pleased" towards you was not enough to prevent this (his NoWarProb for Pleased is 90). If you still have saves, you can check for WHEOOHRN. At this stage of the game the AI has spammed enough offensive units (Stalin's BuildUnitProb = 30) to pass the check if the army is ready. The only way to make him call off his war plans is to have someone else to declare on him in the meantime. A DoW can only be postponed by asking for small gifts/tributes (1:gold:) that come with a 10 turns peace treaty, but the war plans won't be changed by this. Any other actions like switching back to his religion, getting him to "Friendly" or even signing a Defensive Pact with him don't have any effect!

....

For those that survived the above quoting the next one should be obvious:
DanF5771 said:
Ok it appears I was wrong about Mahatma--he can never be a Dagger/doDaggerStrategy (btw what is really meant by that?), no matter where Delhi is located on the map.
He just lacks the necessary features (high MaxWarRand, high flavor values for military, Attack UU) and often does MissionaryStrategy which excludes Dagger.
So Mr Gandhi is doing a good ol fashioned buildup of troops and navy. In fact building the navy to transport the troops should be what it is holding him out ( we see that a lot in the LHCs : a AI being in "hands full" for a big while because it builds the attacking fleet at snail pace ). As I said before, I don't think you're the target anyway....

On the war with China: There is the risk of China vassaling to someone, in spite of no one liking tham much ( cautious or below ). OTOH China has 2 cities you don't see in your map ( in spite of one being easily deductible by the borders you can see ), and regardless of that, you will need to make atleast a landing to finish the chinese for good, and there are more tasty targets in the mainland......
 
The key is the ratio of their respective strengths, not how high they are individually. For example, Combat has the same effectiveness for two Infantry as it does for two Warriors because they have the same 1:1 base strength ratio). Combat becomes more effective as that ratio goes up.

yes I like to think of it as follows if you have a fraction Num/denom

then if if Num > denom adding the same amount to the numerator and denominator will make the fraction fall 8/4 > 9/5 and visa versa 4/8 < 5/9
so if you calculate odds with CR assumed on and then calculate odds with Combat assumed you essentiall are adding to both the numerator and denominator.

For example using a slight approximation for CRII swords against archers and lets pretend the swords get 40% and not whatever reciprocal of 45% as bonus against the archers is.

then we have A/D with CRII assumed would change to roughly if
CRII changed to C2 (A+1.2)/(D+1.2)
If A < D then the fraction is higher and combat two wins out.
removed rest of post because can't word a rule of thumb properly:crazyeye:
 
I'd go steel> rifling, rather than the reverse. With cannon, you could attack with axes and still win. :lol: Plus, they are MUCH more effective in reducing city defenses than trebs.

I think your worries about Gandhi are unfounded. I can't see him picking you as a target.

I agree with Mad, you should skip democracy and the SoL - you really don't need it, and there are many more options that will lead to an earlier dom victory (hint: :hammers: ). I'd go for steam after rifling, followed by communism. SP will be way more powerful than corps on this map. In that vein, I'd try to produce a GS to bulb SciMeth.

You'll also have to go overseas to get enough land for dom, so RR> combustion > physics > flight should be in your future plans. Nothing wins overseas wars like an oil navy and an air force.
 
Oh , a thing I have forgotten: gandhi being in hands full is actually a good thing, given the way things are going. As long as he is in hands full, he can't start planning a cultural win, that would be problematic, given his enourmous ammount of wonders and religions. So you have all the interest he continues planning for war :lol:
 
Oh , a thing I have forgotten: gandhi being in hands full is actually a good thing, given the way things are going. As long as he is in hands full, he can't start planning a cultural win, that would be problematic, given his enourmous ammount of wonders and religions. So you have all the interest he continues planning for war :lol:

Not true. I've seen Alex go hands full while trying to simultaneously pursue a culture victory. It was a very bizarre game to say the least :crazyeye:
 
That is not possible, because any of the AI strategies that give "hands full" imply not being running a cultural win strategy ( read the spoiler of post #643 of this thread, especially the second quote ). What can happen ( and it is dificult to discern from what you sugested ) is that the AI was planning a cultural win and then decided to start a war, thus nullifying the cultural win strategy... with the already llaid cultural buildings and/or Sistine it could still be dumping high quantities of culture in spite of not actually being "planning" a cultural win.

Anyway, that is not the situation here ;) Gandhi is in "hands full" for ages and and I doubt that he had time before that to think on a cultural win. After he DoWs and his war finishes ( because the AI doesn't plan a cultural win while in war ( duh ) )then you can start worrying with that ;)
 
I'd say Rifling then on to Steam Power for Dikes, then Cannons, Railroad/Mining Inc, Assembly Line, Medicine for Sushi.... Corporate Domination [Vassaling to get the Island holdings]
You can probably do it without fighting Ghandi as he doesn't have that much Land Area, and ou can get a solid Tech advantage over the others.
The main problem will be racing to beat his Culture/Space Race win
 
You can probably do it without fighting Ghandi as he doesn't have that much Land Area, and ou can get a solid Tech advantage over the others.
The main problem will be racing to beat his Culture/Space Race win

I absolutely agree that you can win this game without going after Ghandi, but the Great Wall, Spiral Minaret, and Buddhist Shrine all in one city say that at least a single invasion to take that city and enough of the continent to keep it stable would be worthwhile.

Also, Rifles are certainly a boon, but just grabbing Steel and Steam Power will probably be enough to win you the game. You'll certainly get more techs after those two, but they're the ones that are going to lock up the game (if you don't already consider it locked up, of course!).

Enough Cannons = any city falls.
Dikes = Enough Cannons. :)
 
I never realized the attackers odds get converted from numerator to denominator on a percentage equivalent basis.
I'll have to check POM's attack odds output in BUFFY next time.

This is entirely based on seeing the defender's bonus/penalty cross 0%.

If you go from 20% defender bonus to 20% defender penalty, then you end up with the percent change on the other side of the fraction. And since the other side of the fraction is the attacker's strength, you can just think of it as...

Ignoring Combat promotions, add up all the defender bonuses and penalties.
If bonus > 0, then bonus to defender.
If bonus < 0, then bonus to attacker.
Combat promotions are always added to its own unit's strength.

Edit: Just for anyone who wants to know, I'm justifying this interpretation by the fact that the combat outcome is based on the ratio of attacker strength to defender strength. If I have a strength 10 unit attacking a strength 8 unit, that's exactly the same as a strength 20 unit attacking a strength 16 unit.
 
I think Silu's talking about the base defender strength, which, in all cases when you're talking about longbowmen, is 6. Everything else on top of that (CG bonuses, terrain bonuses) is a defensive modifier.

What Silu's saying is that CR rifles vs boosted medieval units is not so effective because CR promotions are only deducted, as a converted percentage, from the base defender's strength. So, in practical terms:

A longbowman (6) with CG3 (+75%) on a hill (+25%) in a city (+50%) has a total defensive strength of 6+(6*1.5) = 15.

A City Raider I promotion for the attacker is 20%, taken off the defender; but (here's where it screws you up) it's calculated against the base defensive strength of the longbow, which is 6. So the defender's new strength becomes:

6 + 50% + 25% + 75% - 16.67% (converted from the 20% attacker bonus) = 14.00.

So it would be 14 vs 14, which is a 50/50 battle, whereas with Combat I, the rifle would have a slight advantage:

14 + 10% = 15.4
vs
6 + 50% + 75% + 25% = 15

...which is why Combat I is better than City Raider I when there is a big difference (about 225% and above) between the base strengths of the competing units.

Actually all nonCombat Bonuses are calculated Seperately

if Defender Bonus > Attacker Bonus
DB-AB added to Defender

if Defender Bonus < Attacker Bonus
AB-DB added to Attacker

so if you are attacking a city, which means they will almost certainly have a bigger bonus than you (at least that extra 25%)

then as a rough rule

Combat 1 > CR 1 if they have a 100% bonus more than you in city attack

So considering the Longbow with +150% (they only get +25% for the city, but an additional +25% for fortification)

and the CR Rifle would give
Long Bow6 +130%=13.8
v.
Rifle 14

rifle is 1/69 better

C1 Rifle gives
Longbow 6+150%=15
v.
Rifle 14+10%=15.4

Rifle is 2/75 better

definitely better

The more the 'special promotions' are on the other sides favor, the more valuable Combat bonuses are. (so giving a Trebuchet City Raider is worthwhile since they have a large CR bonus already, and are likely to balance out defender bonus)

Skipping Rifling is definitely a possibility....
Stick with Trebs+Maces add Muskets for defense
Switch to Trebs+Muskets when they have Crossbows
get Steel* possibly pop with an engineer if you can
switch to Cannons+Muskets,
Then Steam Power+Dikes to finish the others
 
I'd say Rifling then on to Steam Power for Dikes, then Cannons, Railroad/Mining Inc, Assembly Line, Medicine for Sushi.... Corporate Domination [Vassaling to get the Island holdings]
You can probably do it without fighting Ghandi as he doesn't have that much Land Area, and ou can get a solid Tech advantage over the others.
The main problem will be racing to beat his Culture/Space Race win
I don't really think that will be a problem. Once I have the military tech edge, I should be able to crush Gandhi's core cities fairly easily anytime I want if he's getting too close to a culture or space win.

I absolutely agree that you can win this game without going after Ghandi, but the Great Wall, Spiral Minaret, and Buddhist Shrine all in one city say that at least a single invasion to take that city and enough of the continent to keep it stable would be worthwhile.
Indeed, there are several cities which are very attractive targets to conquer simply because of their wonders. :)

Also, Rifles are certainly a boon, but just grabbing Steel and Steam Power will probably be enough to win you the game. You'll certainly get more techs after those two, but they're the ones that are going to lock up the game (if you don't already consider it locked up, of course!).

Enough Cannons = any city falls.
Dikes = Enough Cannons. :)
Absolutely. The game could probably be won eventually with Macemen and Trebuchets, but Riflemen and Cannons will completely seal it (at least for the mainland civs). ;)

I'd go steel> rifling, rather than the reverse. With cannon, you could attack with axes and still win. :lol: Plus, they are MUCH more effective in reducing city defenses than trebs.
Yeah, very good point. I think I've been convinced now that Steel then Rifling (then Steam Power) is the best plan.

I think your worries about Gandhi are unfounded. I can't see him picking you as a target.
Yeah, I think you're right. I'm still a bit worried about Hammurabi though, especially since he has all those Galleons hanging around. He could do some serious damage if he suddenly decided to declare war without warning and storm my island cities...

I agree with Mad, you should skip democracy and the SoL - you really don't need it, and there are many more options that will lead to an earlier dom victory (hint: :hammers: ).
Yeah... the Statue of Liberty is nice, but it's fairly obvious that we're going to win regardless of whether we get it. Besides, if Gandhi builds it for us then we can take it off his hands. ;)

I'd go for steam after rifling, followed by communism. SP will be way more powerful than corps on this map. In that vein, I'd try to produce a GS to bulb SciMeth.
First of all, it's going to be difficult to emphasise a Great Scientist because my two great person cities are overwhelmed by other points. Secondly though, why the need for bulbing Scientific Method? I'm fairly sure it's quite feasible to research it by myself ahead of Gandhi.

You'll also have to go overseas to get enough land for dom, so RR> combustion > physics > flight should be in your future plans. Nothing wins overseas wars like an oil navy and an air force.
Absolutely. Those are all techs that are always high priority in my games anyway. :)

Oh , a thing I have forgotten: gandhi being in hands full is actually a good thing, given the way things are going. As long as he is in hands full, he can't start planning a cultural win, that would be problematic, given his enourmous ammount of wonders and religions. So you have all the interest he continues planning for war :lol:
Actually I'd much rather he went straight for the culture win without focussing on his military. Easier to crush him and grab his wonders that way. ;)

Skipping Rifling is definitely a possibility....
Stick with Trebs+Maces add Muskets for defense
Switch to Trebs+Muskets when they have Crossbows
get Steel* possibly pop with an engineer if you can
switch to Cannons+Muskets,
Then Steam Power+Dikes to finish the others
Trebs and Muskets for offense? Firstly, the enemy already has Crossbows (they did long ago). Secondly, Muskets suck a bit as offensive units due to the lack of a CR option, plus you have to build them from scratch as nothing upgrades to them. Personally, for the mere 2 extra techs it takes, I'd take Rifles anyday - which I can upgrade straight from my Macemen. :)
 
Well, Lord Parkin, the last thing I'm afraid is from Mahatma's military buildups :p Seriously, the last time he DoWed me , he sent the impressive SoD of one swordsman and 2 budhist missionaries :D And, like I said, I seriously doubt you are the target.
 
Is it funny Ghandi invasion stories time? Once, at tech parity someone bribed Ghandi to DoW me, he sent 2 chariots, I took 1 marginal ex barb city of his and he capped. The rule is, no matter how well he appears to be doing, war with Ghandi is ALWAYS a good idea!
 
Yea, this game is rolling again.

About the dotmap save problem. Put in a note on the dot (Alt+S). I can see from the screenies that you post these anyway, these don’t go away. Then you can add the dotmaps if you want to, you’ll know where the go.

Victory condition &#8211; player haters who dis the Navy SEAL, I hope you can see that they can be useful in some games.

Domination seems possible. So does space or diplomacy (or diplomation.) I don’t know which one would be easiest though honestly.
 
Trebs and Muskets for offense? Firstly, the enemy already has Crossbows (they did long ago). Secondly, Muskets suck a bit as offensive units due to the lack of a CR option, plus you have to build them from scratch as nothing upgrades to them. Personally, for the mere 2 extra techs it takes, I'd take Rifles anyday - which I can upgrade straight from my Macemen. :)


Trebs and Muskets for offense is

Trebs for Offense, Muskets to defend them, and actually finish off the weakened units.

And the key here is they are dike powered (for a short amount of time before cannons replace Trebs)

You could wait for Cannons themselves, but Steel is best popped.
 
Trebs and Muskets for offense? Firstly, the enemy already has Crossbows (they did long ago). Secondly, Muskets suck a bit as offensive units due to the lack of a CR option, plus you have to build them from scratch as nothing upgrades to them. Personally, for the mere 2 extra techs it takes, I'd take Rifles anyday - which I can upgrade straight from my Macemen. :)

Did you miss the CR vs. Combat discussion in this thread? :)

In all seriousness, though, Muskets do suck in general, but they are decent in this particular situation.

1) They aren't melee, so the Crossbows don't get an extra bonus against them.

2) Combat promotions are better than they appear. Think of them as 15% bonus when attacking and 10% bonus when defending and you'll have a decent approximation of the real numbers in most common games (including this one).

3) They're not backed up by Trebs/Cannons. They're around as back up for the Cannons. Even if you lose a few Cannons, that's okay. You'll have enough production that even a pair of lost cannons per city isn't going to cripple you and the collateral damage will make the fights pretty easy after the first two attacks (at most) per city.


One last thought. Moving toward Steel pushes you through Chemistry. You already have Astronomy.


PIRATES AHOY!

I wonder if you could blockade Ghandi's entire continent. I bet you could. :mischief:
 
In all seriousness, though, Muskets do suck in general, but they are decent in this particular situation.

1) They aren't melee, so the Crossbows don't get an extra bonus against them.

Good point.

Muskets can be HUGE. In one game I was next to an aggressive Mehmed...glad I had pinch muskets then.

One last thought. Moving toward Steel pushes you through Chemistry. You already have Astronomy.


PIRATES AHOY!

Good/fun point ;)
 
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