Not that great, because I already got it with much the same strategy, only on Monarch instead. However, now I have devised one that is much less based on luck.
Egypt, Babylon and Jerusalem: After settling Raphia at the Suez Canal, take Egypt with your initial phalanx and Babylon with your initial warriors (and any barbs you got along with your spawn). Next, send the warriors to Raphia to be upgraded, as soon as the copper is hooked up. In Raphia work the water first, then the flood plains, then the marble, and finally the copper (once it's hooked up). Build a worker first, and then phalanxes, phalanxes, phalanxes! Use these phalanxes to take Sur, Shush and Jerusalem, Hattusas too, if it hasn't already been razed.. You may reach a point where you don't need any more phalanxes, so then you could build anything you want. The only lucky thing you want here is an archer-less Babylon, and a weakened Jerusalem, but neither are completely necessary.
India and China: Unfortunately these still rely strongly on luck. You must hope that India does not have archery and does not build Lahore. If it's extra city is on the east coast or non-existent, you're OK. If China builds a coastal city, you'll be alright. If China builds an inland city, you have no chance. If Beijing has 2 archers, you need to be very lucky. If it only has 1, you need to be very unlucky to fail in taking it.
Samarkand: Usually is razed by barbarians, but if not, it'll be the factor that gives you a loss.
I guess slightly less lucky victories get you Ethel the Unready..
Also, a few questions:
Do barbarian cities count for conquest (i.e. will Hattusas or a barbarian Samarkand give me a loss)?
Does anyone think India would be possible for an early conquest?
Should I update Rhye's site on my find?