Turn Discussion Thread

Trystero said:

I think I'm going to need to look this over. I was initially for Pottery > Writing > Sailing, but wouldn't be opposed to researching AH if it did not delay running a scientist. However besides letting us run the specialist, the library also gives us a 25% bonus to beakers. At our current tech rate that would be 5 beakers, which is more than running a scientist, and our tech rate is likely to be higher when the library is built, since we'll probably be working the other gold mine. Granted we won't be getting GPP before the specialist, but the research bonus seems significant at this point in the game. Also, the point about putting those beakers into Sailing rather than AH is taken makes sense if we want to get off the island soon, but how soon willing we be building a galley?

Like I said, I think I'll have to look this over some more.

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I can answer most of those and you can check them in the save file linked above.

The library bonus equates to 7 beakers per turn at pop4 (2 fish and 2 gold) and is built 2 turns earlier than with AH for a bonus of 14 beakers. However, as mentioned above tech'ing AH before Writing gives a 38 beaker bonus during that tech meaning that tech'ing AH actually saves us beakers.

Regarding the question about Sailing; In my test game above I tech'ed Sailing after Writing and had sailing completed before the library was finished on turn 42(?).

Lord Parkin said:

If we had some guaranteed pasturizable resources I'd be all for going for AH. As it is, I think it's too much of a gamble when we could be saving time researching other things (Sailing and Maths, for instance).

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If we are talking about gambling then wouldn't you agree that its highly likely we are going to need this tech on the bigger island? If so the real question is whether or not we are going to need it before meeting someone else in game that is willing to trade it. Lots of gambles being taken here.

I'm not one for risks and thats why I think its better to get AH while it has bonuses attached. Those people not wanting to tech it in hopes for a trade before its needed are taking a bigger risk imho.

champinoman said:

I can answer most of those and you can check them in the save file linked above.

The library bonus equates to 7 beakers per turn at pop4 (2 fish and 2 gold) and is built 2 turns earlier than with AH for a bonus of 14 beakers. However, as mentioned above tech'ing AH before Writing gives a 38 beaker bonus during that tech meaning that tech'ing AH actually saves us beakers.

Regarding the question about Sailing; In my test game above I tech'ed Sailing after Writing and had sailing completed before the library was finished on turn 42(?).

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Interesting. That seems like a compelling argument. I will take a look at the save tonight when I am not at work.

I think it's more of a gamble *not* to tech AH. Even if there are no horses on our island, knowing where the horses are is a strategic tool that does not seem to be putting into play. Then, adding that champinoman shows a nominal delay in building the library, no delay in hiring specialists, no delay in our 2nd city, and no delay in building any potential galleys... i'd rather play it safe and pick up AH before Writing.

I'd also go for AH.

Even if not on our island, horses might be close on the mainland. We'll need to know, even if we haven't met any civs yet for trade.

The beaker difference is almost neglegible. It's a fact we can trade for it later, but if we already have it, we can trade for something else.

The only counterargument i see is that it would delay our next techs.
But what are our next techs for? Writing for a library (doesn't get delayed - no 'real' beaker difference), and a specialist (doesn't get delayed), Sailing for galleys (doesn't get delayed - we'll get it before we can build one anyway).

It's certainly true the next techs will get delayed, but it's irrelevant since it doesn't actually affect us. However exploring without knowing the location of horses could

I guess if we're beelining for a religion or something the argument doesn't hold, but we don't seem to be doing anything like that.

How about at least making sure we have AH before Sailing at least. Or we could tech AH immeadiatly after Sailing and then be able to see any horses as we get our Gallies and Settlers ready for Mainland expansion.

AlphaShard said:

How about at least making sure we have AH before Sailing at least. Or we could tech AH immeadiatly after Sailing and then be able to see any horses as we get our Gallies and Settlers ready for Mainland expansion.

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By champinoman's calculations both Writing-AH-sailing and writing-sailing-AH are inferior to AH-writing-sailing by a small amount of beakers. If we decide on getting AH soon (at most after sailing), it's best to get it first.

AlphaShard said:

How about at least making sure we have AH before Sailing at least. Or we could tech AH immeadiatly after Sailing and then be able to see any horses as we get our Gallies and Settlers ready for Mainland expansion.

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As caveman said the key factor is getting AH before Writing to take advantage of the bonus beakers while tech'ing Writing with an additional prerequisite.

I believe that we can tech Pottery next anyway while this discussion is continued. After BW we get to see if we have copper and this could be a deciding factor on whether or not to take the AH path. If we have copper we most likely don't have horses.

caveman1917 said:

The only counterargument i see is that it would delay our next techs.
But what are our next techs for? Writing for a library (doesn't get delayed - no 'real' beaker difference), and a specialist (doesn't get delayed), Sailing for galleys (doesn't get delayed - we'll get it before we can build one anyway).

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The highlighted part is wrong - the Library does get delayed by going for Animal Husbandry first. The specialists do not get delayed.

I'm still reluctant to go for Animal Husbandry so soon because I think it's quite likely we'll find it's a waste of time. Assuming we don't have Horses on our island, there's nothing gained by going for Animal Husbandry this early. Sure, we should get it before we settle our first mainland city, but that's still quite a few turns off yet.

That's my 2 cents anyway. It will certainly be interesting to see if we have Copper - if we do then we certainly shouldn't go for AH this early. But even if we don't have Copper, I'm still dubious about going for AH so early. We can't even make use Chariots (assuming we even have Horses) until after we have Sailing and have built our first Galley. What's the rush?

Lord Parkin said:

The highlighted part is wrong - the Library does get delayed by going for Animal Husbandry first. The specialists do not get delayed.

I'm still reluctant to go for Animal Husbandry so soon because I think it's quite likely we'll find it's a waste of time. Assuming we don't have Horses on our island, there's nothing gained by going for Animal Husbandry this early. Sure, we should get it before we settle our first mainland city, but that's still quite a few turns off yet.

That's my 2 cents anyway. It will certainly be interesting to see if we have Copper - if we do then we certainly shouldn't go for AH this early. But even if we don't have Copper, I'm still dubious about going for AH so early. We can't even make use Chariots (assuming we even have Horses) until after we have Sailing and have built our first Galley. What's the rush?

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You're missing the point. We will 100% guaranteed need AH in the future. Worst case scenario is we don't have horses and our library is delayed by a measly 2 turns. It's a much bigger risk to delay it.

champinoman said:

As caveman said the key factor is getting AH before Writing to take advantage of the bonus beakers while tech'ing Writing with an additional prerequisite.

I believe that we can tech Pottery next anyway while this discussion is continued. After BW we get to see if we have copper and this could be a deciding factor on whether or not to take the AH path. If we have copper we most likely don't have horses.

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Why?

The probability of having horses is unaffected by the appearance of copper.

I had too much stuff going on tonight to run test games, but let me see if I have the arguments straight:

Lord Parkin said:

The highlighted part is wrong - the Library does get delayed by going for Animal Husbandry first. The specialists do not get delayed.

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OK, but champinoman argues:

champinoman said:

The library bonus equates to 7 beakers per turn at pop4 (2 fish and 2 gold) and is built 2 turns earlier than with AH for a bonus of 14 beakers. However, as mentioned above tech'ing AH before Writing gives a 38 beaker bonus during that tech meaning that tech'ing AH actually saves us beakers.

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If we ignore the issue of horses, then I believe LP is arguing that the real cost of teching AH is turns of research which could be applied to some other tech. If that tech is Sailing, champinoman's argument is that we won't be ready to use Sailing if we research it any earlier. But I suppose the counterargument is that we'd still be saving turns on whatever the next tech is (Mathematics?) and delaying AH until we need it might further reduce it's cost.

At this point I find the arguments that "we are going to need AH sooner rather than later, so we should take advantage of the discount to Writing" more compelling, assuming I am not misrepresenting the arguments.

azzaman333 said:

Why?

The probability of having horses is unaffected by the appearance of copper.

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That's somewhat true for RNG generated maps. However, I think he's suggesting that the human mapmakers are unlikely to have given us more than one early strategic resource.

azzaman333 said:

The probability of having horses is unaffected by the appearance of copper.

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In a random map, maybe. In a custom-made map, not true though.

Trystero said:

If we ignore the issue of horses, then I believe LP is arguing that the real cost of teching AH is turns of research which could be applied to some other tech. If that tech is Sailing, champinoman's argument is that we won't be ready to use Sailing if we research it any earlier. But I suppose the counterargument is that we'd still be saving turns on whatever the next tech is (Mathematics?) and delaying AH until we need it might further reduce it's cost.

At this point I find the arguments that "we are going to need AH sooner rather than later, so we should take advantage of the discount to Writing" more compelling, assuming I am not misrepresenting the arguments.

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That's the essence of it, I think.

Lord Parkin said:

That's the essence of it, I think.

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Good. While I don't want to waste beakers on something we won't use (like maybe, Archery), it seems more likely to me that we'll need AH relatively soon, before we can acquire it in trade, and that we'll need to put turns into researching it at that point, so we might as well do it now when it would reduce the cost of Writing.

Or we could do AH after researching Hunting, which would probably save a similar amount of beakers. Although of course, we don't want to research Hunting for some time to leave the option of building Warriors open.

Lord Parkin said:

In a random map, maybe. In a custom-made map, not true though.

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Assuming a balanced map;

Either everyone has horses, or no one has horses. Likewise, either everyone has copper, or no one has copper.

Neither of these have any bearing on the other.

azzaman333 said:

Assuming a balanced map;

Either everyone has horses, or no one has horses. Likewise, either everyone has copper, or no one has copper.

Neither of these have any bearing on the other.

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"Balanced" doesn't necessarily equate to "identical" though. A map where 2 teams each have Copper, Iron and Horses on their starting island is fairly balanced - especially if there are other resources on the mainland.

Lord Parkin said:

"Balanced" doesn't necessarily equate to "identical" though. A map where 2 teams each have Copper, Iron and Horses on their starting island is fairly balanced - especially if there are other resources on the mainland.

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No it isn't. Copper > Horses > Iron. If one team lacks copper, they're at a distinct disadvantage compared to every team that has copper.

Iron Working is a very expensive tech early in the game.

azzaman333 said:

No it isn't. Copper > Horses > Iron. If one team lacks copper, they're at a distinct disadvantage compared to every team that has copper.

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Unreachable islands balances it out somewhat. Although I agree that having only Iron would suck a bit compared to the alternatives.

Lord Parkin said:

The highlighted part is wrong - the Library does get delayed by going for Animal Husbandry first. The specialists do not get delayed.

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Yes, but in a functional way it doesn't get delayed, as the two extra turns it has to wait (loss of 25% beakers) gets compensated by the extra beakers because of prereq to writing. You're right the building itself won't be there as soon, but it's not delayed in any real (ie functional) sense. That's what i meant

I'm still reluctant to go for Animal Husbandry so soon because I think it's quite likely we'll find it's a waste of time. Assuming we don't have Horses on our island, there's nothing gained by going for Animal Husbandry this early. Sure, we should get it before we settle our first mainland city, but that's still quite a few turns off yet.

That's my 2 cents anyway. It will certainly be interesting to see if we have Copper - if we do then we certainly shouldn't go for AH this early. But even if we don't have Copper, I'm still dubious about going for AH so early. We can't even make use Chariots (assuming we even have Horses) until after we have Sailing and have built our first Galley. What's the rush?

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I'd like to turn the argument around, why not take advantage of the few extra beakers and early horse-spotting? By not going AH we are giving up something (couple of beakers - neglegible though) and perhaps something else (horses - we might not see/need them early, but we might do). I think the burden of proof rests on the route of not going AH, as that's the one giving up something obvious.

So what do we give up by going AH? Delaying other techs.
However both writing and sailing have been ruled out of this argument by champinoman. So what else have we got, Math? No way we'll be needing cats so early, so that's not an issue. If however the +50% chops could be shown to make a 'real' difference, i guess i might reconsider. Or perhaps some other early tech which can be shown to make a difference.
Still i think this should be 'proven' to be true in order not to go AH, which already has been proven to give some obvious benefits (even if only the beakers).

I suppose we can all agree we'll need it by the time we start exploring the mainland? If we could agree to that, it will at least give us a timeframe for our different scenario's