SGOTM 11 - Plastic Ducks

kossin · May 25, 2010

@BIC
fogbusting galleys on our initial landmass is almost complete, bar for the tile S of the 2 silvers and 1E of the ice. In any case, anything that spawns there will go to Zara which is fine with me.

@Bugg
Fastest wb is like Duckweed, whip Vijay and Varanasi borrows the marble instead of working unimproved fp.

Bugg123 · May 25, 2010

@BIC:
The WIII warrior just hangs there because I didn't bother moving him around for that test. We'll aggree what to do with him and how, and he will be moved

Same goes for Delhi. Size 5 is correct (When we go for earlier ToA). As I said, I just didn't bother replaying the turnset from the start to reupload the correct second version.

@kossin:
As long as we have 825BC ToA it's allright. Probably no need to delay ToA to get the few extra gold? (Also, maybe we should just go 100% untill currency completes (we seem to get rounded down 1 gold if going 90%) (EDITED: Think I misunderstood your point, sorry

)

And more workers will definately be needed sooner rather than later

Right now we're scraping by, though.

Bugg123 · May 25, 2010

@Bugg
Fastest wb is like Duckweed, whip Vijay and Varanasi borrows the marble instead of working unimproved fp.

I never work unimproved FP. Artist is assigned as soon as Varanasi hits size 2. Borders expand when cottage completes and worker can keep cottaging.

In duckweeds plan Vijay remains size 4 and can't start pumping settlers for 4 turns (EDIT: although I do aggree the WB is faster

).

My point was it was the fastest way while keeping Vijay on pace for size 5 when WB2 completes

Duckweed · May 25, 2010

kossin said:
@Duckweed
However I don't like chopping the BFC forest. I've already stated how that reduces chances of forest re-growth. Finally, I prefer having ToA 1 turn faster than a cottage 1 turn faster anywhere.

You're giving Bombay the horses too early.

ToA 1 turn faster is 2 commerce and 5.25 beakers compared to 1 cottage earlier 1 more commerce - and we're not considering the potential faster GP and potential failure of later completion. In other words, I don't mind Vara working unimproved fp a bit longer to spare more worker turns chopping outside Delhi's BFC for faster ToA.

Also you're wasting 10% overall slider to finish Currency as I've stated a few times already.

On the contrary, chopping 2 forests outside north of Delhi reduces more chance of forest regrowing. It wastes more hammers which can be gained from the civic bonus. Moreover, they can be reserved for a better wonder like TGL later or even for UN. On the other hand, the forest 1S of Delhi has to be gone sooner or later and only enable 1 tile forest regrowing. Worker force is tense at that time and I could not send any worker to chop in Delhi before finishing chops in Pat and Bombay. You will see this if you follow my plan. I'd like to get ToA, but losing it is not very big deal, the failed cash will great speedup our research to CS and Lit.

I'm fine to put 6th citizen in Delhi on the farm tile if those hammers can speed up ToA by 1 turn (did not run this test). Otherwise, cottage tile is better than farm.

There's no difference of any partial slider to finish Currency since there won't be any Lib built before CS. 50% slider is probably a choice which might not lose any round down beaker.

Why do I give horse to Bombay too early? Working on FP instead of Horse makes Vij grow from size 3 to 4 faster, or no?

kossin · May 25, 2010

@Bugg
You're right about slider, let's keep it at 100% to avoid roundoff errors. It's not like we'll get more multipliers down the line anyway.

Whipped Vijay or not depends on what we prefer: 4 turns earlier 9th settler or 2 turns earlier meeting of Izzy? [assuming we only start a settler at size 5 rather than size 4 - either way it's a slightly faster settler at size 5]

I think you mean 800BC ToA... it's impossible without 3 forests chop in 825BC I think?

One last thing: fastest wb without whipping is to keep Vijay on 3H tile until wb completion. 1 turn earlier this way

kossin · May 25, 2010

@Duckweed
Horse to Bombay too early: I had in mind to finish the settler with 0 overflow in Bombay (meaning switch the horses when the hammer count finishes with a 9 in Bombay).

Forests growth are very unlikely overall that's for certain. They only spread horizontally or vertically and the chance to grow is doubled if there's 2 forests next to a tile (etc.)

You're right that the total odds of re-growth with 1 chop is better than with 2 chops of course, but the forests East will have to go before Zara can steal them.

Hence I prefer the greater odds of a BFC forest growth than an outer-BFC forest growth. It's still a long time before we need to chop that forest for a cottage (size 11!).

Moreover it's more likely a forest will appear in the BFC than from the forest 3N of Delhi.

I've managed to finish the forests in Bombay and Pali in time while getting the 2 forests chops (following your plan but tweaking here and there). I'm still not satisfied with my result so I'm trying to tweak a bit more.

Bugg123 · May 25, 2010

@kossin:

I was sure I meant 825BC but I think you're right. 800BC is correct.

My head's spinning right now, so I'll be off for a while. I'm hoping you come up with THE turnset. Either way, we're not far off a good plan right now, so fingers crossed we can get this done soon. (We can't really spend this much time on each turnset going forward, I guess

)

Duckweed · May 25, 2010

@ bugg123

There are many different moves in my plan from your plan from the 1st turn.

Kossin has pointed out some of them and I'll explain why those modifications is better imo. Before you run other test, Could you follow my plan once.

1. Location of gold site. I posted some points in the reply to dingding. The gold mine will shave our research to CS 1 or 2 turns.

2. The move of FW with the settler, I'd say it's >99% safe move with WB1 there for fogbusting. Combined with the city location I proposed, it's the most efficient way.

3. Whipping of a WB in Pat. We will produce 1st WB 3 turns earlier to scout east, if there's no luck from the warrior, the gain from 3 turns earlier of meeting Izzy is big. that's at least 24C. Moreover, there could be other AIs there, which makes the gain even more. Also the 2nd WB can be used by the horse city earlier. 1 extra citizen in Vij contribute 2H to the settler, which is not a big deal.

Bugg123 · May 25, 2010

One last thing: fastest wb without whipping is to keep Vijay on 3H tile until wb completion. 1 turn earlier this way

Yeah, but that'd make growth to 5 a turn later, right?

Also I don't know what's more important. Getting the 9th settler out or getting the exploring WB out sooner. It's probably not a big deal anyway?

If we're going without whipping WB in Vijay, we need those workers to mine the hill in time for growth to 5, I guess. Which I couldn't do with 3 workers on Cow + getting ToA chops+getting cottages up+shipping a worker over to gold-site.

Hope you can figure it out

Duckweed · May 25, 2010

kossin said:
@Duckweed
Horse to Bombay too early: I had in mind to finish the settler with 0 overflow in Bombay (meaning switch the horses when the hammer count finishes with a 9 in Bombay).

but the forests East will have to go before Zara can steal them.

There's nothing wrong to have overflow hammers in Bombay since it is going to produce the 8th settler for the Crab/Gold site.

All the forests east and north will belong to Delhi forever considering the monster culture from Delhi.

kossin · May 25, 2010

@Bugg it can be done if you neglect the cottages a bit in Varanasi. Or if you don't want to neglect the cottages in Varanasi then Vijay can always work 5th pop on the grassland farm.

I like Duckweed's gamble of getting the gold up early. If there's no barbs in the area, we win. If there's a barb in the area, the Chariot is no safe guarantee of settling the city either

spear = we're screwed
Axe = good chances of win but loss is not (3% loss)
Archer = decent chances (12% loss)
warrior = 0.5% chance of loss
sword = very unlikely, we're screwed

If we send a warrior, the risk is still great unless there's only a warrior in the area.

So using Duckweed's method, the only larger risk is when:
-unloading
-barb warrior present
-barb archer present

What's the potential loss:
-1 worker (ouch)
-no settled city

What's the potential gain:
~1 turn faster Civil Service

Using the safer method, we only risk a Chariot/warrior instead of a Fast Worker.

In either case, it's a gamble. We're gambling already on natural GLH finish (although by the AI analysis it looks safe) so why not one more small gamble?

>>>I'll vote for early gold.

Still trying to make up my mind on the rest of the set.

Bugg123 · May 25, 2010

Duckweed said:
@ bugg123

There are many different moves in my plan from your plan from the 1st turn.

Kossin has pointed out some of them and I'll explain why those modifications is better imo. Before you run other test, Could you follow my plan once.

1. Location of gold site. I posted some points in the reply to dingding. The gold mine will shave our research to CS 1 or 2 turns.

2. The move of FW with the settler, I'd say it's >99% safe move with WB1 there for fogbusting. Combined with the city location I proposed, it's the most efficient way.

3. Whipping of a WB in Pat. We will produce 1st WB 3 turns earlier to scout east, if there's no luck from the warrior, the gain from 3 turns earlier of meeting Izzy is big. that's at least 24C. Moreover, there could be other AIs there, which makes the gain even more. Also the 2nd WB can be used by the horse city earlier. 1 extra citizen in Vij contribute 2H to the settler, which is not a big deal.

Yes.. there are differences from the start. Most notably 2 vs 3 workers on cow. The reason I sent 2 was I couldn't figure out how to 1. Get ToA chops done in time if we want earlier finish, while pasturing cow with 3 workers and getting the final chop in Bombay to complete settler asap and finishing cottages around rice and growing Vijay to 5 and having mine done by then. (phew..)

1. Yes, I kinda got that (see my turnset post .. "the most efficient way to settle gold")
2. I don't have a problem with that either (works well in my 2nd test)
3. You mean Vijay, right? I don't mind that either, really.

Your turnset sacrifices something (later ToA, slower growth in Vijay and thus less need for mine near Vijay right now, and later pasture around horse+fish) for a few turns of Izzy 1-on-1, earlier workboats and bigger pati (thus earlier granary) .. if I've understood it correctly (I have looked at and played your save once).

I like the WBs and the contact with izzy. I'd really like earlier ToA though. Maybe kossin can figure something out. Producing settlers at size 4 in Vijay isn't a problem either, I suppose (but as you say 2h less/turn, so it's something).

But as I have said earlier, I don't mind either way. My suggestion is the best compromise I can make between what's been discussed so far. If we want to go exactly like you proposed or closer to it, I don't have a problem with it, and if we somehow can also manage earlier ToA then it's all good. I will have to give your description a go a couple of more times before I play it, though, just to make sure....

Let's see what kossin comes up with and see if we can finalize something after that.

kossin · May 25, 2010

We can aim for 875BC gold city as per Duckweed's set. Vijay is irrelevant to this round, whip or no. Varanasi can borrow Marble if Vijay is whipped.

That leaves 3 options:

1- whip the galley in Pataliputra in exchange for 2 forest chops in Delhi to finish ToA in 800BC.

2- chop Pataliputra but only 1 BFC chop in Delhi as per Duckweed's plan (750BC ToA)

3- chop Pataliputra and 2 forests in Delhi for 775BC ToA.

There isn't enough time to have 8 turns of forest chop in Bombay+3 turns of road. It would have worked if we had planned the last set differently but it's too late now.

2 forests chops in Delhi is 13 turns, the equivalent of 1 BFC forest chop + a cottage.

~~~~~

Bottom line is: can't finish ToA 800BC and settle gold 875BC unless Pataliputra is whipped to hell (very inefficient for such a good city).

I'm inching towards Duckweed's proposal, I'll review it again after dinner and maybe suggest 1 thing or 2.

BornInCantaloup · May 25, 2010

From Kossin's dates for wonders :

ToA
215 925 825 1100 1025 900 205AD 525 290

We're at another point where 1 turn may matter. The AIs we know don't have marble (correct ?) but 3 remains and at least 1 should have.

As you present it, choosing between option 2&3 depends on how much we value ToA vs failure gold.

If we failed at the ToA, I guess it wouldn't matter "at all" (so to speak) since it would speed us up to the Great Lib+Parthenon, if we're still thinking about the Parth... Cash, right now, has a pretty high value. How much gold would we get ? 300+ ? 400+ ?

kossin · May 25, 2010

@Duckweed's plan

t116 - We could whip Pataliputra 1 turn later to keep working the pigs and cows but that'd mean 1 less turn of fogbusting with the wb.

t119 - just to make sure I understand which tile you want for the fogbusting wb: 3S3E of the fish? or is it 4S4E?

3S3E fogbusts more tiles but 4S4E fogbusts the landing zone [it won't matter if there's already a barb there however]

t121 - 0% research, let's keep the full binary just in case
t122 - 100% research

We lose a bit of commerce and research due to later ToA but I guess it'll be made up for by faster TGL. If we end up losing it it means faster CS and faster TGL so I guess we're not losing that much (it would suck still).

Otherwise I agree with the plan.

@BIC
We'd gain close to 400 gold which is almost what we need for CS.

EDIT:

One last option is to delay the gold city by 1 turn (no roads), but that's risking losing it in SW of the fish. The 3 turns saved of road can be used for chopping the second Delhi forest in time instead.

I prefer the earlier gold city.

Bugg123 · May 25, 2010

I'll try duckweeds proposed set one more time as well and repost it (in a way I'm sure I'll play right

). I think maybe there were a couple of workermoves there I didn't quite get to pan out, but it was probably more my understanding than anything else.

2 turns of ToA could be important, though, so I don't know. Pati can whip one more time instead of chopping (ends size 2 rather than 3) and grows back. If that leaves us with ToA 2 turns sooner, I'm all for it... but anyways.. will try the set once more in a little bit.

kossin · May 25, 2010

The problem of whipping Pataliputra is you end up at size 2 with cows, pigs and fish to work... sure it's not the end of the world, but compared to not whipping it it comes out quite a bit behind overall.

Bugg123 · May 25, 2010

Is it just me, or is T117 workermoves a bit off on duckweeds set?

Is the testgame off? Need 5 workerturns to chop E of Bombay. No worker from there can move W of Bombay and Road this turn. I can't get 3 workers to forest NW Pati on T118 (since one has to move W of Bombay to chop T118).

EDIT: I suppose I misread it again

3rd FW moves 2N2W of Pati .. and not 2N2W from itself. got it. On T116 one worker cancels chop.

kossin · May 25, 2010

Okay I'll explain:

t116:
3 FW in Pataliputra finish cows pasture
2 FW in Bombay are chopping 1E of Bombay. 1 FW cancels on this turn

t117:
2 FW in Pataliputra road the pigs, 1 FW goes 2N of Pataliputra (the flood plain with no river) roads+cancel
1 FW in Bombay keeps chopping 1E of Bombay, 1 FW in Bombay moves 1W of Bombay roads+cancel

t118:
3 FW in Pataliputra go NW of Pataliputra and chop
1 FW in Bombay finishes chop 1E of Bombay, 1FW in Bombay finishes chop 1SW of Bombay

t119:
2 FW in Pataliputra finish chop, 1 FW goes to the same flood plain without river road+cancel
2 FW in Bombay finish road 1W of Bombay [make sure the road is finished before moving settler]

Bugg123 · May 25, 2010

My rewrite of duckweeds turnset (So I can actually do it without messing up

)

Spoiler :

SGOTM 11 - Plastic Ducks

Deity

Prince

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Deity

Deity

Deity

Prince

Deity

Prince

Deity

Deity

Prince

Deity

Agent of Chaos

Deity

Prince

Deity

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Deity

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