SGOTM 11 - Plastic Ducks
- Thread starter AlanH
- Start date
Congratulations on 
Ducks!
I've really, really enjoyed reading through your thread this week.
Ducks! I've really, really enjoyed reading through your thread this week.
shyuhe
Deity
Congratulations on the finish! I guess it's no secret now that you've won 
dingding
Prince
This game somewhat showed how powerful SE could be, cottage IS overrated.
In a game of 230~240turns and on Epic, cottages are certainly not as great as spe+Representation. I'd rather say this game show how powerful TE+ Early SE are.
Thank you OSS guys for your congra! You have played a good game as well. (Frankly speaking, if there weren't you, I would think this SGOTM is too easy and boring
)And this chart is for OSS as well:
Spoiler :
Will try to analyse this weekend.
The chart is attached, if find any problem, pls let me know.
LowtherCastle
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Congratulations on well-played game and the Gold!!!
I'm most interested in understanding what CFR or MW would have done, because this game should have been won before T220, maybe even T200. OSS was right to Oracle CS, that's for sure. PD was clever to build TGL and to warmonger. I doubt the Delhi gems was a major factor, but may have gained PD a couple turns. I think warmongering was by far the most powerful tool in this game, because 1) it virtually always is in CIV, 2) it gives at least 2 GGs, maybe should have been 3, and 3) it's by far the best economy, especially combined with SE. This was OSS's primary blunder.
CFR and MW would surely have Oracled CS and warmongered. Not so sure about TGL. I can't really speak for CFR, but I'm sure that MW would have done more warmongering than PD, would have grown its cities even more and probably run GAs w/MoM from T160-T175 onward, starving certain cities to run max specialists toward the end. Getting the votes would have been simple because all AIs except one would have been vassals or war partners giving plenty of plusmods. The limitation on 2 DoWs wouldn't have been a problem either. Izzy was almost sure to dogpile after DoWing Zara, as she did to PD iirc. Getting Toku, Mehmed and/or Sal to DoW us would also have been easy by planting a city so as to have 8 adjacent tiles. MW would have used vassals even more than PD for tech trades I imagine and there's one more trick MW might have used, if needed to get DOWed: put the target AI into Pacifism. We learned from the last SG that a small empire, like Sal or Izzy, will DoW with too many units in Pacifism.
That would have been the fun way to play this game and would have demanded some serious MM and strategy-building. OSS played conservatively, but extremely effectively. Since PD w/Delhi gems and warmongering only beat OSS by 10t, I surmise that PD's warmongering must have been fairly conservative.
I'm most interested in understanding what CFR or MW would have done, because this game should have been won before T220, maybe even T200. OSS was right to Oracle CS, that's for sure. PD was clever to build TGL and to warmonger. I doubt the Delhi gems was a major factor, but may have gained PD a couple turns. I think warmongering was by far the most powerful tool in this game, because 1) it virtually always is in CIV, 2) it gives at least 2 GGs, maybe should have been 3, and 3) it's by far the best economy, especially combined with SE. This was OSS's primary blunder.
CFR and MW would surely have Oracled CS and warmongered. Not so sure about TGL. I can't really speak for CFR, but I'm sure that MW would have done more warmongering than PD, would have grown its cities even more and probably run GAs w/MoM from T160-T175 onward, starving certain cities to run max specialists toward the end. Getting the votes would have been simple because all AIs except one would have been vassals or war partners giving plenty of plusmods. The limitation on 2 DoWs wouldn't have been a problem either. Izzy was almost sure to dogpile after DoWing Zara, as she did to PD iirc. Getting Toku, Mehmed and/or Sal to DoW us would also have been easy by planting a city so as to have 8 adjacent tiles. MW would have used vassals even more than PD for tech trades I imagine and there's one more trick MW might have used, if needed to get DOWed: put the target AI into Pacifism. We learned from the last SG that a small empire, like Sal or Izzy, will DoW with too many units in Pacifism.
That would have been the fun way to play this game and would have demanded some serious MM and strategy-building. OSS played conservatively, but extremely effectively. Since PD w/Delhi gems and warmongering only beat OSS by 10t, I surmise that PD's warmongering must have been fairly conservative.
Would have... Should have... it's always hard to say what could have been and what will be.
I think our biggest faux-pas was not prioritizing GPP enough... at some point I figured we could use at least another GA which = more GPP etc.
Anyway, I'm off to reading OSS's thread now that I've just read XTeam's - and before I say anything stupid again today
I think our biggest faux-pas was not prioritizing GPP enough... at some point I figured we could use at least another GA which = more GPP etc.
Anyway, I'm off to reading OSS's thread now that I've just read XTeam's - and before I say anything stupid again today
dingding
Prince
I don't know what the other teams might have done if they had oracled CS. Nevertheless from OSS's play, I'm afraid I'm much less sure than you.
GS=>Maths + Oracle=>CS is equal to oracling Maths and bulbing CS with a GS. It seems like a great gain, but it's not as great as it seems. Compared to Oracling CoL and early GP settlement as PD did, OSS suffers several "losses" from the former method:
1) Loss of beaker from "Oracling Maths" instead of CoL (819-585= 244b);
2) Loss of beaker from "bulbing CS" by a GS (a GS can offer 2300b~3000b, CS is worth 1872b, that's a loss of around 500b~700b; btw the same with bulbing Philosophy);
3) Loss of beaker from not being able to settle early the first GP (the first GS PD settled brought at least 3300b and 185h to PD at the whole game; considering the time it takes, let's consider the hammers are only "interest" of the beakers not being able to bulb at a time. Then PD gains another 3300-2400b = 900b compared to OSS's "bulbing" with GS);
4) Early library and GP postpone the expansion. (well early library can gain some beakers, I think it can be more than 100b (?). However the postpone of expansion means loss of beaker and hammer in the long run, which is for sure).
Above are theoretically loss of 1500b~1700b. (Edit : I think it's not a coincidence that we find there is about 1600b of difference of Beaker output potential at t111 between the two teams, at the advantage of OSS. I'd think at this spot, the two teams are equivalent in terms of research.)
Then technically, OSS didn't gain much more beakers from early CS than the early academy of PD (Bureau = +50% commerce in cap; Academy = +40%~50% in cap. Differences???). OSS should have gained much more hammers from early Maths and Bureau bonus than PD which didn't have them that early. Personally I think it's the biggest advantage of early CS and OSS should have benefited from it to make a better REX, instead of growing cottages and accumulating commerce bonus in the cap as they did (expansion >> early beaker). However the maintenance becomes a big problem of REX if they have ignored the possibility of TGL! Finally we can see in the chart I made, by t111, OSS didn't make more hammers than PD even with their early maths and early bureau. Apparently PD is much more cruel to whip in Delhi because the GS settled can produce beakers at the same, while OSS may be limited by their commerce bonus in Delhi.
Given these two types of losses, once CS is obtained by PD, their advantages become apparent as the chart shows from 142t.
About warmongering, I will find time to talk about it. I think the DoWs we did didn't have enough merits in economy, but it's necessary for the UN victory. I'd like to state that OSS had much better luck than PD in terms of diplomatic RNG, because you had a Boudha-party ensuring the votes and hence no necessity to DoW and gain vote, while PD has 3 different parties which are hard to balance.
Lastly, the gem event did make difference (like 2000~2500b), but by t228, PD is ahead of 13000b.
dingding
Prince
I've been so stupid to think that Duckweed launched the first GA too early, finally it turns out to be too late
LowtherCastle
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That's not the point, maestro. The point is how to be smarter in the future. For example, in the wonder SG, how did MW have virtually every wonder in fewer turns on a similar map? It wasn't the unlimited DoWs, because most of those came at the end to satisfy the VC.
If there's one thing to learn from an SG, imo, it's how to preempt your quote and strive for the ultimate game the first time through. CFR in SG2, CFR+CRC in SG3, MW in SG6, CRC in SG7 + SG9, MW in SG8 + SG10 are all examples. You guys surely had missed opportunities. Rest on your laurels and you'll get whipped by a really good team.
LowtherCastle
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I've already agreed on the advantage of TGL. But warmongering should have taken care of that, you don't need to build it. Warmongering would have also handled the REX. OSS, for example, made the mistake (imo) of rushing to build Oasis, instead of letting Zara build it for us. The lack of focus on warmongering has many ramifications.
I disagree on the UN votes. Needing only +8 is really pretty simple, if you use all the tools available. Hard is getting Friendly early in teh game, if that's a need.
Far from me to say we did all we could, rather I just said it's hard to look in the past and say who would have done what and what should have been done.
As for myself, this was my first xOTM experience so I really don't have a clue about the past
Nonetheless, I always try to ameliorate what I do, and it doesn't change here. That's why I'm reading other threads now and will try reading previous SGOTMs afterwards. Most of your posts have been really good to read for instance.For this SG though, I'm not gonna call shots on what were the best moves. The only thing certain is grabbing key techs/wonders earlier is better!
dingding
Prince
If any other team could have participated and played better, it would be regrettable to not be able to see their performance. Personally, I think this game has much more specific constrains and conditions than the previous ones. Even the most experienced team may have failed in some decisions and not performed in the optimum way, given the uncertainty.
For sure our team has something to improve, at least I could list: 1) we ignored the power of GM, which makes 50%~80% more beakers than a GS; 2) GA too late; 3) Beakers on Nationalism and hammers on Taj may have been a waste. etc.
Despite the blunders we might had made, our team shows extraordinary performance in this game in terms of beakers, hammers and strategic decisions.
We were a young team. Iirc, all the members except Duck hadn't seriously played a SG before this one. We have good reason to be proud of this accomplishment, though we have something to improve for sure.
Nice chart, dingding! It doesn't really show strategic gameplay, though. IMHO, we were more efficient in getting to the specific goals. I've posted elsewhere that gems+93%GE would have given us 5-6t alone, and we probably built enough maces anyway to farm a GG. That amounts to a very close game, despite your obvious advantage in overall numbers. I also question researching Nat and spending Delhi resources on Taj, for one thing.
I think getting Vija down pre-2000 BC was the critical move. We took forever planting our third city, and then settled Two Fish and Oasis, one without hammers and one with low overall potential past the short term.
We were predicting a 1000 AD win, which is approximately what both teams achieved. I think OSS could have won 7-8t sooner without a drastic change to strategy, so I'll assume that a slightly more minimal strategic approach could land PD a 850 AD win. Don't see how a significant improvement on that could be made, aside from leveraging an axe-rush and/or worker-farming of Zara really well. In browsing the threads, I only saw Rusten make a strong case for that. Don't doubt that a team of Lexad/Dynamic/Gosha would have seriously considered it, and probably gone for it. Realistically, though, it is a potential insta-screw-yourself move. Edit: the 2-DOW rule in conjunction with the resource importance was actually quite effective at restricting game-play.
It doesn't really show strategic gameplay, though. IMHO, we were more efficient in getting to the specific goals. I've posted elsewhere that gems+93%GE would have given us 5-6t alone, and we probably built enough maces anyway to farm a GG. That amounts to a very close game, despite your obvious advantage in overall numbers. I also question researching Nat and spending Delhi resources on Taj, for one thing.I think getting Vija down pre-2000 BC was the critical move. We took forever planting our third city, and then settled Two Fish and Oasis, one without hammers and one with low overall potential past the short term.
We were predicting a 1000 AD win, which is approximately what both teams achieved. I think OSS could have won 7-8t sooner without a drastic change to strategy, so I'll assume that a slightly more minimal strategic approach could land PD a 850 AD win. Don't see how a significant improvement on that could be made, aside from leveraging an axe-rush and/or worker-farming of Zara really well. In browsing the threads, I only saw Rusten make a strong case for that. Don't doubt that a team of Lexad/Dynamic/Gosha would have seriously considered it, and probably gone for it. Realistically, though, it is a potential insta-screw-yourself move. Edit: the 2-DOW rule in conjunction with the resource importance was actually quite effective at restricting game-play.
In a game of 230~240turns and on Epic, cottages are certainly not as great as spe+Representation. I'd rather say this game show how powerful TE+ Early SE are.
When you generate enough beakers to complete Radio, except for space race victory, what techs do you need at that time? Hammers, any improvement is better than cottage for pumping units. Even pursuing space race, there's Sushi + biology farm.
I've been so stupid to think that Duckweed launched the first GA too early, finally it turns out to be too late
We actually made the right decision since we don't have 100% confidence to produce a GE and we must save 1 GA for UN if we need to build it naturally. Of course it was too late if we assumed a GE in hand.
I'm too lazy to think carefully about those issues, but my intuition tells there's not much difference and actually was a right decision at that moment.
BTW, great analysis, I like those convincing data!
Nice chart, dingding!
I think getting Vija down pre-2000 BC was the critical move. We took forever planting our third city, and then settled Two Fish and Oasis, one without hammers and one with low overall potential past the short term.
We were predicting a 1000 AD win, which is approximately what both teams achieved. I think OSS could have won 7-8t sooner without a drastic change to strategy, so I'll assume that a slightly more minimal strategic approach could land PD a 850 AD win. Don't see how a significant improvement on that could be made, aside from leveraging an axe-rush and/or worker-farming of Zara really well. In browsing the threads, I only saw Rusten make a strong case for that. Don't doubt that a team of Lexad/Dynamic/Gosha would have seriously considered it, and probably gone for it. Realistically, though, it is a potential insta-screw-yourself move. Edit: the 2-DOW rule in conjunction with the resource importance was actually quite effective at restricting game-play.
Both teams did great jobs than I could expected. UN victory ~1000AD is a sound achievement, especially adding those variances. There's no perfect play in CIV, but play with less mistakes. I doubt our team could achieve a win ~850AD, but with the knowledge of the map layout, a perfect play from beginning probably can. Rushing Zara is definitely not a good decision from beginning. What if the diplomatic situation is bad and require more than 1 DOW to gain enough vote, or some required resources can not be acquired by peaceful trade?
LowtherCastle
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Far from me to say we did all we could, rather I just said it's hard to look in the past and say who would have done what and what should have been done.
As for myself, this was my first xOTM experience so I really don't have a clue about the past
For this SG though, I'm not gonna call shots on what were the best moves. The only thing certain is grabbing key techs/wonders earlier is better!
Responding to both of you...
You guys did great, especially for the first time in an SG. Period. Please don't think I'm trying to take anything away from your performance.
In SG4, winning by losing a space race to Gandhi, I was extremely frustrated by all sorts of possibilities that we didn't think of until it was too late. So one of my goals became to prevent such frustrations by thinking way out of the box early on and discussing all sorts of possibilities. Another meta-strategy was to continually re-think our strategy throughout the game. Klarius was especially good to learn from because he seemed to always start anew with each new turn, although he never said that.
In SG10, I think we came about as close to "perfect" as I can. By perfect, I mean that I'm willing to bet that anyone could study the map and play as many times as they want, with no re-loads of course, and their result would never be more than 3-4t better than what we got. That's pretty good, it that's true. I think the same is true for CFR in SG2 and maybe some other SGs as well. There is power in playing in a good team.
--------------
Sometimes, we CIVers just don't think of all the possibilities. Sometimes, we don't even know of all the possibilities. A new scenario, like this one, can teach us stuff no one ever thought of or tried out before. That may be part of what happened here. Here's my latest thinking:
1. We were given 2 DoWs. That's a big difference between being given none at all. None at all is hard. 2 DoWs is a bit luxurious if you think about it.
2. I think I was and all of us were silly, yes, silly, to even worry about saving the DoWs. DanF and Thralia have taken all the mystery out of AI DoWs. It's really not hard at all to get them to DoW you, if needed and if it's aligns with your tech path. Think about it. I actually calculated very early in our game exactly what it would take to get Izzy to DoW us or prevent it. Izzy loves to dogpile. DoWing Zara almost guarantees that Izzy will DoW us. Okay, that means we've got negmods with Zara, but not with Izzy and 1 DoW for free.
Getting Mehmed, Sal, and/or Toku to DoW us, if wanted, would also be brainlessly easy, because we just need to plant a city that will have eight land tiles in common with the targeted AI. But this would be true for almost any AI and we knew very early who our enemies were. (Except for Sal in OSS's case.
) Furthermore, we knew from our earliest sea exploration that there were good sites to settle near all those AIs.But we still have 1 DoW in our back pocket, if needed. No, fearing to DoW Zara from the get-go was just a primitive understanding of that game condition.
3. MW learned in SG10 that small civs running Pacifism with a bunch of units will rapidly and idiotically DoW. That was another tool to easily get Zara, Sal, or Izzy to DoW us, if we needed it.
4. If you still aren't sure about using the DoWs, then the VCs end all doubt. Our home landmass was enough to easily show that the mapmaker had conscientiously designed it to enable both Diplo and CUltural VCs. But warmongering and Astro are not on the cultural VC, so clearly neither are needed to attain the victory. OSS also knew this from early on, if you read our thread.
BUt all this is not to bemoan what we didn't do but should have. No. This is just to understand what tools we have for the next SG, so that we can strive for perfection again. At least those of us who ENJOY striving for perfection. I'm afraid that's a rare breed.
@Duckweed,
I agree, I'm more than happy with our result. Just wondering what could have been improved. IMHO, we were too obsessed with GP purity to fully exploit Delhi as a research horse and that's our big mistake.
I've been meaning to reload our Pyramids save and try, but I'm just too lazy. Gut feeling: OSS didn't have a good second cathedral city, and that would be a serious limiting factor. Either Aksum or possibly even PD's Vija should be better.
I agree, I'm more than happy with our result. Just wondering what could have been improved. IMHO, we were too obsessed with GP purity to fully exploit Delhi as a research horse and that's our big mistake.
I'm still kinda curious. Our only real argument against at the outset was the possible need for Astro and even Rifling to satisfy the variant... jesusin did 1300's on Emp/Epic, but with Mehmed (stupid for culture) and with all the worst warmongers on agg ai. With our settings, you have to think that at least sub-1200 is doable. UN is still obviously faster, but I'm not sure by how much.
I've been meaning to reload our Pyramids save and try, but I'm just too lazy. Gut feeling: OSS didn't have a good second cathedral city, and that would be a serious limiting factor. Either Aksum or possibly even PD's Vija should be better.
LowtherCastle
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The main argument to me was needing four GPs on the Furs. Cultural needs every GA it can get. The only way to even out cultural and diplomatic is to figure out a way to make diplomatic relations especially sticky. If you try to give us three good cities for cultural, you also speed up Diplo.
Fair enough. 4GA = 24k, which should ideally be something like 15t (if we assume something in the order of 800-600-200 for 3 cities towards the end). In that time, you can presumably pop an extra GA, so even less of a difference maybe. That's approximately 100-150 years off an ideal date - so maybe 1250-1300 AD? Pure speculation - I have no idea what a good date would be...
Yep.LC said:
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