I'm too lazy to think carefully about those issues, but my intuition tells there's not much difference and actually was a right decision at that moment.
One apparent fact is that if we had had advantage of these GPP, the MM date could have been advanced by 5t. These GPP are just some easy money of 2550g!
The total amount of beaker accumulated is absolutely one crucial condition of the game, if go for UN victory. (Concerning the accumulated beakers, it's well established that the early beakers are more important than the late ones, but it's also clear that the early beakers' importance lies on the fact that they help generate more beakers in the later stage. So here I just take into account the total amount accumulated)
In terms of research, I'd like to identify and evaluate the contribution of some of our moves, in order to have a better idea of the key factors:
1. GS bulbing: 17800B
In my chart, PD has accumulated about 75000 beakers + beakers for Radio by T228, in which the Oracle and GSs bulbing represent about 17800b. OSS performed nearly the same amount in the same way. It's justified that we can say GS bulbing is one of the most important ways, if not the most important one, to accelerate the victory.
2. The Great Lighthouse: 7000B
It was built at T118, and worked till t228. I had estimated, during the play, that it could bring 30-50 Cpt, and finally it generated 4000C and 7000B during 110t, quite appropriate.
I do believe the importance of GLH is much more than the number we see in eyes. This wonder, in such a circumstance, increases the break-event of building a new city from 6~8 cities up to 10 cities. That encourages the REX by avoiding financial difficulty. The effect, as we can see, by T179 (I take this spot because it's before the war and without GA), PD gains 289 commerce per turn and OSS 177 CPT. I think that's mostly the result of different strategies of REX and economy between the two teams.
My calculation for those who would like to check:
Commerce from GLH: 2 CPT in t118, 24 CPT in t142, 48 CPT in t179, 40 CPT in t205, 60 CPT in t228. Assume that the change is linear, we can calculate the amount of commerce in each period, multiplied by the average of beaker/commerce rates in each period, that's 5900C in raw and 7100B in final (multiplied by 120%).
3. Colossus: 2200B.
The contribution of the Colossus is not very significant, but given its cost (we whipped it out with only 3 pops), its profit is quite high as well. The only shame is that we didn't take advantage of the GPP it generated, as the picture showed above.
4. Golden age: 7500B ~ 9000B
The calculation of Golden age: suppose there is a percentage of population (like 70%) who can benefits from it in terms of commerce, plus that of the cities which are hammering gold, I estimate an additional 90~140 CPT can be generated during the GA, which is nearly 7500B~9000B during the 28t.
From this figure, I tent to doubt the necessity of MoM + Taj. Nationalism alone costs us 4000+B. It may be true that this choice brought some other contribution (or possibility of contribution) like drafting, GPP, flexibility of change if the fur is guarded by units superior to Rifles, but still the contribution is not very convincing. I should take the responsibility because I was for this plan.
5. The Great Library: 3500B
Given the cost, it's very lovely as well, let alone the GPP it has given!
6. The gem event: 1500B
I have to revise the estimation of the gem event after looking into it more carefully.
The gem was popped at around t135 and last till t228. During 93t, it brought 6*1.5 = 9 CPT. Multiplied by the convert rate and 120%, the total amount is like 1500B. It's unjustified that the gem is an important factor of the game.
7. Settlement of GP: around 8000B
PD has settled two GP in the cap: one GS and one GE. Also one GS is used to build academy in Delhi. The first GS gives about 3300B, the GE is estimated to generate 1800~2000B. The academy is quite hard to measure. But since we preferred build an academy than settle the GS, we may consider the contribution of the academy is no less than the settlement, around +3000B.
The factors mentioned above are 48000B, 65% of the total beakers of 75000 that PD has generated.
I totally agree, ofc. I've already stated that our choice to not settle coastal pre-2000 BC, like you did, effectively meant we couldn't think of building GLH. We had to do that in order to bulb CS, etc, etc.
