SGOTM 12 - Plastic Ducks

Now what if we want it all ? (Academy + 3rd city)
Plan !

Spoiler :
T47 :
Worker in St Pet heads back to Moscow (T49).

Research set to 0%.

T48 :
Worker on Gold mine goes to the other gold mine.

Research set to 100%.

T49 :
Worker on gold mine roads.
2 other workers go 1SE of Moscow (could be 1E but 1SE may be better long term).

Moscow works silk and resumes warrior.

T50 :
Both workers 1SE of Moscow road.

Moscow starts library, works horse.

T51 :
All 3 workers are on the rice tile.

T52 :
All 3 workers clear fallout.

T53 :
Fallout is cleared.

Moscow works rice, cow, cow.

T54 :
Sailing is done. Research is set to Priesthood (via Meditation). Slider is down to 0%.

Moscow is size 4 and works cow, cow, rice, horse.

Workboat is complete in St Pet. Will improve the Fish.
St Pet starts Lighthouse.

Workers farm the rice.

T55 :
2 workers finish the farm and the last one starts a road.
The fish is improved.

The library is done. Moscow starts 2 warriors.

St Pet works the Fish. That is 1 turn earlier than in the other version.
Moscow works Cow, Cow, Rice, Gold (growth in 3 turns).

T56 :
1 worker finishes the road on the rice. The other 2 go clear the fallout on the gold.

T57 :
3rd worker goes clear fallout on the gold.

T58 :
Fallout is cleared on the gold tile. 2 workers mine.

Moscow is size 5. Starts a worker. Hires 2 scientist (works cow, cow, gold ; I found no way to produce the worker in 4 turns ; scientists are hired first to multiply the 2 gold tiles later with the library).

T59 :
113 gold in treasury. Research is set to 100%.

Gold mine is done. 1 worker heads to the cow near St Pet.
Moscow works Cow x2, Gold x2 and horse.

T60 :
2 workers on gold tile go to the cow.

St Pet is size 2 and works the gold. Moscow hires a scientist (works cow, cow, horse, gold)

T61 :
Worker on cow clears fallout.

T62 :
2 workers on cow clear fallout.

T63 :
Cow is cleared. 1 worker pastures.

Worker is done in Moscow. Starts another one.
Moscow hires 2 scientists (works cow, cow, gold).

Worker from Moscow goes to St Pet.

T64 :
Workers on the cow finish the pasture.
Other worker is on the ivory tile.

T65 :
Priesthood is done. Start Masonry.

3 workers road cow and ivory. Other one goes to the ivory tile.

T66 :
3 workers clear fallout on ivory.

T67 :
Masonry is in.
89 gold in treasury. -3gpt, 40bpt.
11 turns to Academy. 4 turns to 5th worker (forgot to put a turn in the Oracle...).
St Pet has 36/60 in its lighthouse and grows to 3 in 2 turns. Will start a settler at size 4.


Which leads to :
City 3 settled on T80.
Oracle on T84 if we work some commerce tiles at the expense of hammer tiles in St Pet.
St Pet has 45 hammers in the GLH, is size 4 and will grow to 5 in 2 turns. GLH would be complete in less than 15 turns, not sure how many exactly (bit more than 10).

Spoiler :


Don't mind too much the workers' improvements up north. I forgot I had to clear the fallout under city 3 and had to worldbuild it out (loading makes my game crash since a few days...). Say a hill near St Pet is covered in fallout and the city is settled as planned ;)

My thoughts :
3rd city doesn't really delay the Oracle. Rather the GLH (by 5 turns or so, but that is a guess ; I didn't play to that point yet... maybe I should^^). I think I prefer to go with this plan. The 3rd city will be very useful to increase our production.
We need Galleys/Workboats to explore and warriors to garrison.
EDIT : maybe there's a way to turn research on 1 turn earlier.

ps : those are big plans of around 20 turns. Maybe there's a way to cut them down ?
 

Attachments

T55
you forgot to say Moscow horse->silk but obviously did it

T65
Send the workers to road fallout instead for easier access later, don't need road on cow yet.

I'll check the rest of the micro tomorrow evening.

EDIT: for first plan
 
kossin said:
T55
you forgot to say Moscow horse->silk but obviously did it

T65
Send the workers to road fallout instead for easier access later, don't need road on cow yet.

I'll check the rest of the micro tomorrow evening.

EDIT: for first plan
Click to expand...

You're right : First plan, the capital is working the silk from T53 to T56... I think that's the only way to grow the capital to size 5 on T57. I don't remember if there is food surplus when it grows... If yes, then it would be possible to use the horse a little :)
There seems to be very little gain in doing so, though, since the 2nd plan allows St Pet to use the fish 1 turn earlier...

T65 : you're referring to the desert tile SE of St Petersbourg, right ? That would make sense, indeed, if we don't need the worker turns later on. If we want to settle the 3rd city, worker turns remain tight.

@ Crashing : blame modified BUG mod, I would say :p
 
dingding said:
Good play, kossin!

About GLH:

Yes! The return is guaranteed.

I'm not a optimist but I'm pretty sure that GLH is 95% ours:
1) We have a pretty good time for finishing it considering this game: 650BC.
2) DR is a potential back-up of building it for us.
3) Washington at size 8 already, which reduces its chance of being coastal.
Click to expand...

I'd hope your 95% odd be true. However, Washington is a coastal city almost for sure since there's only 1 capital is non-coastal and it's logical to be Stalin's stronghold.

@BIC

Noticed that you did not connect the horse, how do you think about a chariot than a 5th warrior. I guess french archers will start to head to our capital soon.

Will see more soon.

All right, here's some revision, some moves are not efficient, but for safety.

T47 or 48 -- Warrior1 1W and stay, also check for approaching archer every turn
T50--Warrior 3 1NW1SW, 1 worker R, 1 worker to Rice (save 2 worker turns this way)
T51--worker on gold SF&C, worker on Rice R, warrior 3 continue scout south along the coast
T52--worker on Rice finish road 1st, 2 workers go to Rice SF
T53--3rd worker SF
T54--2workers I, R 0% Mys, Mos (2Cow, Rice, Silk), Peace with Gandhi(with AH, Sailing,Writing)
T55--3rd worker I, R100% I'd like to research PH as soon as possible and put 1 turn on Oracle.
T56-- 1worker to SP Cow, 2 workers to Gold SF&C, Mos takes Gold, SP citizen on Fish this turn
T57-- 2 workers to Horse R, Mos(chariot)
T58--2 workers to Gold SF, SP worker SF, R on Med, Mos (2Cow+gold+2sci, worker)
T59--1 worker M
T60--1worker M
T61--2nd gold mine done, 1 worker to 2W Ivory of SP, R PH, SP (2nd pop takes Gold), Mos(3rd citizen on 2nd gold)
T62--Mos(3rd worker to SW Ivory of SP)
T63--R Masonry, Mos(Oracle)
T64--SP(N worker P, 2W worker SF, SW worker R) Mos(Worker)

Continue to Oracle, 1 turn slower on Oracle, but should be 3 turns earlier on GLH.
 

Attachments

Duckweed said:
@BIC
Noticed that you did not connect the horse, how do you think about a chariot than a 5th warrior. I guess french archers will start to head to our capital soon.
Click to expand...
Right, will try to do it, timing the road on horse with the completion of the library/4th warrior.

You say improving the horse delays the Oracle by 1 turn (later gold) to T83 with 2 cities + Academy. I think we can get horse + 3 cities + Academy and Oracle on T84, regardless on whether we improve the horse or not :) If you check my endsave for the 2nd plan, there's 20 gold of surplus.

What are your thoughts on this issue ?
3rd city on T80, Oracle on T84, GLH later on. The GLH is more useful if we have 3 cities (but less secure, right).
EDIT : just kept on playing from my save for the 2nd plan and the GLH was completed on T98. I think proper city management could do it 1-2 turns earlier (like working the lake earlier, once the lighthouse is completed).


Duckweed said:
T47 or 48 -- Warrior1 1W and stay, also check for approaching archer every turn
T50--Warrior 3 1NW1SW, 1 worker R, 1 worker to Rice (save 2 worker turns this way)
T51--worker on gold SF&C, worker on Rice R, warrior 3 continue scout south along the coast
T52--worker on Rice finish road 1st, 2 workers go to Rice SF
T53--3rd worker SF
T54--2workers I, R 0% Mys, Mos (2Cow, Rice, Silk), Peace with Gandhi(with AH, Sailing,Writing)
T55--3rd worker I, R100% I'd like to research PH as soon as possible and put 1 turn on Oracle.
Click to expand...
Hum... As in my 2nd plan, Moscow grows to size 5 with 0 food surplus.
Your worker moves indeed save 1 worker turn (which makes it easier to improve the horse) however, you also clear the rice 1 turn later, which means -2 food (working the horse at the time).
--> I'm hesitant to follow your advice.


@ Priesthood :
Yep, if we want it asap, we can say simple binary research until we have it (or at most, save gold for 2 turns after Sailing is done, if 1 turns isn't enough).
 
@BIC
I'm not very optimistic about the date of our wonder attempt. It's normal that emperor AIs do not build any wonder before 2000BC. You may want to look at the link in SGOTM11 for the wonder date again. So my preference is to secure both wonders as soon as possible. My estimation of our wonder date is just not bad. If we settle the 3rd city -- say 10 turns earlier, it will probably give our empire the income from a silver mine for 10 turns (probably not since your worker force is short to improve the silver in time) and that's all as you have to stop the growth of the city at size 2. If we skip 3rd city before Oracle, we can still settle another 2 cities around the time when GLH completed.

If you send all 3 workers to the Rice at the same time, you lose 2 worker turns and you have to put hammers on 5th warrior. Is the benefit from 1 turn earlier on 3F tile significant? In both way capital grow to size5 at T58. IMO 2 worker turns are more important as it enable us to remove the fallout in SP with good synergy to grow.
 
That makes sense :) Gaining 5-10 turns on the GLH can make a real difference.
In your save, workers have cleared the 3rd city site and Moscow is ready to pump settlers... Why not ?


3 testruns give an idea of what leads to what even if the micro can be improved.
Could we have an official vote going on the following issues before the final plan is provided (for minor revisions) ?
Copy and add up your name :
1) 3 workers before Library in Moscow, yes or no ? Yes : BIC, Hydraculas. No : Duckweed.
2) GLH, yes or no ? Yes : Duckweed, BIC, DingDing. No : Hydraculas
3) Academy, yes or no ? Yes : Duckweed, Kossin, BIC, Hydraculas (in city 2).
4) 3rd city before the Oracle, yes or no ? Yes : Hydraculas. No : Duckweed, BIC.
Click to expand...


I think the first three issues are granted. The 3rd city is more debattable but, as Duckweed pointed out, it would delay the GLH but wouldn't contribute much (at all) before the Oracle is complete. I don't mind the safer path at all if if means wonder vs failure gold.
 
1) 3 workers before Library in Moscow:Yes.
2) GLH, yes or no ? NO.
3) Academy, yes or no? Yes, but the GS should born in city2.
4) 3rd city before the Oracle, yes or no ? Yes.

Still not willing to try for GLH because I don't see a chance of foreign trade routes.
There are so many lands and I prefer to REX asap, and the hammers of GLH+LH worth 1settler+3workers, that's a big amount.
If u wanna discuss the return of GLH, there are several things need to consider:
a) The speed of REX. Settlers move slowly in fallout and workers take time to clean the fallout. These factors will lead to a very slow REX and we won't get a fast and wealthy return by settle coastal one and another, due to the slow speed and no foreign trade routes.
b) The return compared to one more city. Consider a return of 120 turns and 8 coastal cities the GLH will get about 10peakers/hammer;considering 120 turn of one more city with 10peakers+10hammers per turn on average, that's already 6peakers+6hammers/hammer. If we don't have the foreign trade routes, I don't think the return of GLH is higher than one more city. Neither the speed of return.
c) The snowball effects. It works like this, the faster u get a return, the faster u can have another investment. I don't think the GLH is a good investment due to the slow return cycle. When u build the GLH u may not gain a single coin if u already have currency. Then if takes a long time for u to settle 8 coastal city, and when is that?

I think we should explore a little more of the map and then we can run a simulation later than 150turns. That will show more clearly of the difference between GLH and one more city. Then we can make a decision.
 
hydraculas said:
I think we should explore a little more of the map and then we can run a simulation later than 150turns. That will show more clearly of the difference between GLH and one more city. Then we can make a decision.
Click to expand...

Like... Stopping this set when Moscow reaches size 5 ?
Decisions taken afterwards would be determining, I believe (Moscow starts hiring scientists or not ; then the issue comes fast of researching Masonry or not). That would give time to map most of the northern area but not completely the south east.

I'm no good at comparing carrots and oranges a priori. Last SG I noticed how good some decisions were only some turnsets after they happenned.
However, GLH : there's a strong possibility that we will be able to settle enough offshore cities to feed all our internal traderoutes. Erkon described the map as "Fractal with lots of small islands" and we can already see some spots.
So traderoutes, imho would be at least 2 commerce each, even after Currency.

Regarding OB with AIs, I don't handle diplomacy well enough to have an opinion. If Duckweed says we can OB, though... I'd tend to trust him. Can you elaborate on this point, Duckweed ? How will/could we OB ?
 
^It's costly to make peace and OB with AIs in this game since the sacrificed warriors and we know them from T0. The earliest date that we OB with Gandhi is when CoL is done, that will bring +2 from fair trade and make our relation with Gandhi to be -5+2=-3=cautious. Even the toughest AI will become cautious when getting enough fair trade (+4) and +1 from time of peace. Can someone tell how many turns it is needed to bring the +1 diplomatic modification. 20 turns maybe?

Edit: @BIC
Your 1st voting issue seems to be 4 workers before Library in Moscow,
 
OB with Gandhi (+2) is easy, we only need to not be his worst enemy.

Churchill: cautious (0)
DG: cautious (-1)
Mao: cautioous (0)
Roose: cautious (+1)
Stalin: annoyed (-1)

We have -5 visible hit against all AIs, -1 for Emperor difficulty, likely -1 for being up on leaderboard and a random numbers.

Actual relations:

Gandhi (+2) => -4~-5
Churchill: cautious (0) -6~-7
DG: cautious (-1) -7~-8
Mao: cautioous (0) -6~-7
Roose: cautious (+1) -5~-6
Stalin: annoyed (-1) -7~-8

Furious < -10
-10 < Annoyed < -3
-3 = Cautious < 3
3 = Pleased <10
10 < Friendly

What we can get:
+4 fair trade
+2 resources (50 turns/# resource for +1)
+1 peace (? turns)

So it's doable but certainly not easy to OB with everyone.

The other alternative:
Once you share a common war with someone, OB is guaranteed despite relations.
 
Duckweed said:
Edit: @BIC
Your 1st voting issue seems to be 4 workers before Library in Moscow,
Click to expand...

My bad, I didn't read your plan carefully enough (was in a hurry). I assumed from earlier discussions you would be going for 3 workers...
I've edited the voting sheet. Maybe Hydra wants to revise his vote on this matter, now...

If going for the 3rd city, I could see advantages to the 4th worker, but is it really necessary if we go Oracle + GLH at 2 cities ?
Delaying the library while having the science slider at 100%... we could do so, of course, but I don't find this very attractive.



Thanks for the data regarding OB :)


I'll try to get a new plan up and running on Monday. Which leaves us today and tomorrow to solve the voting issues :)
 
hydraculas said:
When u build the GLH u may not gain a single coin if u already have currency.
Click to expand...

This is only true if no foreign trade routes and:

1) no Currency and 2 cities or less (at 3 cities you gain 1 commerce per coastal city, 4+ is 2C/coastal city)

or

2) Currency and 3 cities or less (at 4 cities you gain 1 commerce per coastal city, 4+ is 2C/coastal city)

I think the big difference is due to the maintenance. With GLH, each city doesn't affect the amount of gold/turn you're pulling in up to city 10~12 compared to 7~9 without GLH.

I haven't looked at making a proper dotmap yet but surely we can get at least 10 cities on this fallout mass.

If we look a bit longer term... and by longer term I mean post-Oracle>CS and post-REX but before Liberalism>AL (or whatever here).

What do we do? Macemen are only a few techs away and we can catch the AI with only Archers for a while.

An earlier REX would support this approach... possibly capturing GLH in the process but doubtful.
 
BornInCantaloup said:
My bad, I didn't read your plan carefully enough (was in a hurry). I assumed from earlier discussions you would be going for 3 workers...
I've edited the voting sheet. Maybe Hydra wants to revise his vote on this matter, now...
Click to expand...

Hmm, that's a vague expression. What I intended to say is that "After the 3rd worker and the 3rd warrior, do you want to start a 4th worker or a library in capital". There's nonsense to talk about 3rd worker as it is in progress now.;) I tried to raise an issue that proposed by hydraculas, who wanted 4th worker. You are right that I want a library and it's clearly shown in my plan.

Edit:
"Do we want peace with Gandhi when Sailing completed" -- my vote is yes as it's going to be more costly after Gandhi meets other AIs and/or researches some techs himself.
 
@Duckweed

Notice that Wonder dates in SGOTM11 were for Epic speed... while similar there is a difference and this is Agg AI.

What's this about 4th worker before Library? This is the first I've heard of this for a few pages!
EDIT: I see nm!

1) 3 workers before Library in Moscow, yes or no ? Yes : BIC, Hydraculas, kossin. No : Duckweed.
2) GLH, yes or no ? Yes : Duckweed, BIC, DingDing, kossin. No : Hydraculas
3) Academy, yes or no ? Yes : Duckweed, Kossin, BIC, Hydraculas (in city 2).
4) 3rd city before the Oracle, yes or no ? Yes : Hydraculas. No : Duckweed, BIC, kossin.
Click to expand...

Anyway, seeing as SH/TGW haven't gone yet it leads me to think AIs are adopting different strategies so we have a great shot at Oracle and good at GLH.

@hydraculas
Did you manage to fix your computer?

I would like to see a side-by-side comparison of both approaches for t100~t120. Assuming only the 1 island we've seen.

I'd do it but I really don't have that much time this weekend :(
 
^Read carefully on hydraculas's plans and you will find out where the 4th worker come from.

There's no difference of standard or epic game on wonder date. Aggressive AI probably slow down wonder date by ~10 turns. If not aggressive AI, I won't propose Oracling CS since it's clearly far lower than 50% chance in 800BCish, IIRC you saw the date of 1100BC in the test game yourself and that's aggressive AI, or not?
 
Re: Oracle 1100BC
Yes but that was from Gandhi doing a direct beeline... which we know he isn't now.

EDIT:

OSS finally made their first move, 12 turns with SIP, worker, AH just done (skip Ag).
Unless they decide to skip Agriculture for Oracle slingshot it's a bad move imo.
 
Oracles take ~10 turns for AIs (consider 2~3 pop whip). If Gandhi completed PH anytime before 1100BC, he could beat us if he decides to go for it. He is 1 tech from PH at the moment and he does like PH! Our chance to win wonders mostly depends on AI favors expansion more than wonders and that applies to most of the emperor+ game. The reason why higher level AI get wonder earlier is because they can reach certain level of expansion (3~4 cities) earlier.
 
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