Has anyone figured out a pattern to changes in the trade items that a particular city demands? I've seen hints about things like discovering a particular technology, delivering a particular kind of caravan, even hitting particular turn numbers, but have not found a good description of what is really going on.
City Trade Demand Changes?
- Thread starter ElephantU
- Start date
I've never really followed it too much.... It seems to me it also has to do with city size.
There is definitley a link to tech discoveries (e.g uranium only becomes a trade item later) but other than that I have never heard or seen any definition of how and why the trade demands change.
I have also noticed (or imagined) that the trade items a city produces also changes as well seemingly at random - s this my imagination or does this really happen ?
I have also noticed (or imagined) that the trade items a city produces also changes as well seemingly at random - s this my imagination or does this really happen ?
Old n Slow
Emperor
I don't know of any definitive studies on this topic, but I have seen tidbits appear in other threads -- e.g. oil is offered as a production item more frequently after Industrialization (I think) and demanded more after a later tech (Auto?). Similarly, iirc Ando Indorin mentioned an observation regarding Uranium supply -- I think it might have been more suppliers after the completion of Manhattan.
I remember sending a boat with two demanded caravans over to a foreign customer. Before unloading, I checked to see if both products were still desired (yes). Dropped off the first, (nice return, thank you very much) and then immediately dropped off the second -- only to find a return of nickels (ARGH -- how can it change
??)
There are some trade threads, some of which discuss repeat production capability & repeatable (and extra demand) items.
Ive also noticed frequent demand in bunches by location -- as though four to seven close cities all want copper and dye & them of them also want silk.
So I think that relevant variables include city size, location, product delivery (?) and civ tech level. I dont know about city infrastructure or units making a difference.
Related question -- iirc sometimes rehoming a freight still allows the original commodity to be produced (as if it was destroyed along the way); might be something to look into.
I remember sending a boat with two demanded caravans over to a foreign customer. Before unloading, I checked to see if both products were still desired (yes). Dropped off the first, (nice return, thank you very much) and then immediately dropped off the second -- only to find a return of nickels (ARGH -- how can it change
??)There are some trade threads, some of which discuss repeat production capability & repeatable (and extra demand) items.
Ive also noticed frequent demand in bunches by location -- as though four to seven close cities all want copper and dye & them of them also want silk.
So I think that relevant variables include city size, location, product delivery (?) and civ tech level. I dont know about city infrastructure or units making a difference.
Related question -- iirc sometimes rehoming a freight still allows the original commodity to be produced (as if it was destroyed along the way); might be something to look into.
Sometimes I wonder if there is an influence of particular civilization; seems like all the Japanese cities in one game wanted Silk over and over...
That could be your "location" issue, as civs tend to cluster together.
I did get some oil production before Ind or Auto recently, but no takers - it's hard to judge these things when you are so far ahead in techs.
Sounds like an issue that needs to be researched in some test games.
That could be your "location" issue, as civs tend to cluster together.
I did get some oil production before Ind or Auto recently, but no takers - it's hard to judge these things when you are so far ahead in techs.
Sounds like an issue that needs to be researched in some test games.
It has been researched.And researched.And tested and tested.
I have yet to see anything that absolutely nails it down.
A remaining mystery.
I have yet to see anything that absolutely nails it down.
A remaining mystery.
Dark Ascendant
Darkness Ascending...
Trade demand issues are not very important if you have a huge number of cities and a vast pool of available commodities.
Ace
Emperor
It appears that trade demand changes with the "era". In the early era, salt, hides and beads seem to be in demand and in later time periods there is no demand for these items. Other than that , its pretty much up for grabs. The only things I have noticed are: 1) there is no demand for oil until Industrialization is discovered, 2) no demand for uranium until atomic theory or nuclear fission (not sure which) is discovered and even than it is very rare to find a city that produces Uranium. There is a thread here somewhere that claims the occurance of uranium increases after the manhatten project is built, but you could not prove that by me.
I have noticed that groups of cities always demand similiar goods. I have not been able to determine what the pattern is here, or the reason, but a given group of cities in a given area all demand similiar goods. It could be the civ or it could be the area, but its probably some random factor the AI uses to set demand. I have noticed that the demand does not seem to change if I capture on of the cities in question, so maybe its tied to the "area". In addition, if the civ in question has grown large enough, ie jumped to another landmass, the demand in the cities across the pond is different. Later in the game, this grouping seems much less apparent, maybe because the civs are "older" and demand becomes more random.
I have noticed that groups of cities always demand similiar goods. I have not been able to determine what the pattern is here, or the reason, but a given group of cities in a given area all demand similiar goods. It could be the civ or it could be the area, but its probably some random factor the AI uses to set demand. I have noticed that the demand does not seem to change if I capture on of the cities in question, so maybe its tied to the "area". In addition, if the civ in question has grown large enough, ie jumped to another landmass, the demand in the cities across the pond is different. Later in the game, this grouping seems much less apparent, maybe because the civs are "older" and demand becomes more random.
Interesting observations - perhaps there is a component to the formula that involves something like continent number or civ number. I've seen the tech discoveries issues, but it is not absolute, as I recall instances of getting oil as an option before Industrialization, but perhaps there could be a component like number of techs or a precursor tech that leads to Indust (Eng? Invent? Steam? RR?). Right now I'm more interested in what makes the demand list change, rather than how it starts out, but these things all seem to be linked together. Sometimes the list changes when I deliver a caravan, sometimes it stays the same. Sometimes a city will continue to demand the same thing even after a delivery. Sometimes a city will change its demands without any other apparent changes to the game "state".
One of the few "unsolved mysteries" of Civ2!
One of the few "unsolved mysteries" of Civ2!
GaryNemo
Settler from None
In gotm21 just recently, I was walking a caravan over to an AI capital on a river, and checking every turn, I noticed they canceled their order for that commodity. I doubt they got it from another AI, but maybe. Anyway, I turned around and built a Wonder with it. Bit of a waste of time. Another caravan, the demand stuck and I was paid well.
They dont cancel, they shift their demand, and often exactly the one that I am about to deliver (or it only seems that way because thats what I am paying attention to!). I'll have to check on the idea of other AIs delivering caravans - in most games I dont see other AIs doing caravans at all, but every once in a while Ill see an AI caravan. GOTM20 was frustrating because of the huge single continent. Not only were there long delivery times until I figured out the oceanic back door, but never had the different-continent bonus. So arriving at a city that had changed its demand was almost cause for war!
I'm doing GOTM21 now, and saw a vivid example of AI city changing its demand while my caravan was plodding its way there. Also, once I had all 3 trade routes, I noticed one of MY demanded items was (xxxx), but no AI caravan came near my city so there must be some sort of reciprocal routing. The other thing I got was one of my supply items (Hides, actually) became available again after I delivered the caravan and got a route. I've been exploiting this to deliver more caravans than the first three (I'm doing OCC) for extra gold/beakers, without disturbing the three original trade routes (I think). I was playing some other test games in cheat mode to see what the AI was doing (looking for AI caravans, etc); now I have another set of data to collect on my-demanded items and recurring supplies. Sigh.
Any other "odd" events anyone notices about caravans, supply, and demand, let me know as I am slowly exploring this issue, trying to gather some data to see if this can be predicted.
Any other "odd" events anyone notices about caravans, supply, and demand, let me know as I am slowly exploring this issue, trying to gather some data to see if this can be predicted.
Old n Slow:
Could you point me to any threads that specifically address repeating and changing of supply and demand? I've seen the basic ones just on Trade and Caravans, both at CFC and Apolyton.
I'm not getting into rehoming yet, but I'll keep that one on my list for later investigation.
duke o' york
It don't mean a thing....
Has anyone tried to put themselves in the position of the AI (that is, trailing in the tech race by some way) to work out if the demand for oil depends on whether you've got Industrialization or whether any civ can have it? This would then give you the backdoor spying route they have in Civ 3 so you can work out whereabouts their research level is depending on which resources they are able to offer in negotiations.
I've been experimenting in cheat mode, but I keep adding items to my tracking spreadsheet, then going back and retrying several test games. Im trying to watch all the cities in the whole game, all the techs, even continent numbers, beginning and ending of turn, that sort of thing. Very tedious.
Old n Slow
Emperor
ElephantU -- be sure to track through Starlifter's writings -- he has some trade stuff & good links (I don't recall too much about city demand changes, though)
One thing you may want to note is whether one commodity changes or all three. I delivered a demanded commodity (with a second demanded, different caravan waiting in the boat, when the city had a switch of all three commodities. Before it was the last of a cluster of four American cities that demanded ancient stuff (Beads, Wool, Cloth) whereas the three neighbors all wanted copper, silk and either coal or dye. After the first commodity landed it switched to copper dye, silk -- maybe I woke it up or something.
One thing you may want to note is whether one commodity changes or all three. I delivered a demanded commodity (with a second demanded, different caravan waiting in the boat, when the city had a switch of all three commodities. Before it was the last of a cluster of four American cities that demanded ancient stuff (Beads, Wool, Cloth) whereas the three neighbors all wanted copper, silk and either coal or dye. After the first commodity landed it switched to copper dye, silk -- maybe I woke it up or something.
There is a fascinating discussion tangential to this issue going on at Apolyton.Net right now regarding the "refreshing" of supply commodities in cities:
http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=64663
Solo is supecting that there may be two issues involved in changing or freeing up commodities for building more caravans in cities that already have three trade routes. He is calling them "triggers" and "causes". When both combine or happen in close sequence you might see a large-scale change like you mention, OldnSlow.
And for the definitive formula on Caravan Bonus Payoffs, check here:
http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=64729
We've known what multipliers influence the bonus, but Samson has pinned down exactly IN WHAT ORDER and how the integer math works. He also discourses on the multiple influences SuperHighways have on trade and bonuses. This was posted by Samson just last week!
http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=64663
Solo is supecting that there may be two issues involved in changing or freeing up commodities for building more caravans in cities that already have three trade routes. He is calling them "triggers" and "causes". When both combine or happen in close sequence you might see a large-scale change like you mention, OldnSlow.
And for the definitive formula on Caravan Bonus Payoffs, check here:
http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=64729
We've known what multipliers influence the bonus, but Samson has pinned down exactly IN WHAT ORDER and how the integer math works. He also discourses on the multiple influences SuperHighways have on trade and bonuses. This was posted by Samson just last week!
