What is the probability of dying of disease ?

sumthinelse · Jan 3, 2003

In PTW I have had an average of less than 2 citizens in a flood plain for 50 turns but had 2 disease outbreaks. Maybe I was very unlucky, or maybe the chance of disease in a flood plain is 1/50? I wonder if this changed from civ3....

Edit: I discovered the cause. In PTW Engineering seems to prevent flood plain disease! See below...

Turner · Jan 3, 2003

You know, long after I had Medicine I had a disease outbreak. I don't remember if it was a FP or jungle, but I think jungle. I thought that once you got past Medicine you didn't have disease any more. Maybe you need a hospital in that city? I dunno.

sumthinelse · Jan 3, 2003

Originally posted by Turner_727
You know, long after I had Medicine I had a disease outbreak. I don't remember if it was a FP or jungle, but I think jungle. I thought that once you got past Medicine you didn't have disease any more. Maybe you need a hospital in that city? I dunno.

Medicine doesn't do anything except enable other advances. Sanitation eliminates disease in flood plains but not in jungles. I don't have either.

Sim_One · Jan 3, 2003

What is the probably that a unit wandering in a jungle will die from disease? This has happened to me so rarely that it has been hard for me to determine. Also can a unit die from disease on a floodplain?

alva848 · Jan 4, 2003

but had 2 disease outbreaks.

They allways come in pairs....which is very annoying(and predictable)

did anyone say bug???

WildFire · Jan 4, 2003

@Sim_One- Don't think they can die on flood plain. I believe that units only die in jungle when they are fortified for a certain amount of turns.

WillJ · Jan 4, 2003

Originally posted by WildFire444
@Sim_One- Don't think they can die on flood plain. I believe that units only die in jungle when they are fortified for a certain amount of turns.

Yep, only citizens, not units, die from flood plain disease. I don't know if they have to be fortified, but units probably have to be in jungle for a LONG time to die from disease, and I don't think settlers and workers ever die from disease. Either it's just settlers and workers, or maybe all non-combat units (explorers, etc.).

farting bob · Jan 4, 2003

i thought it was a random event. a citizen could work on a flood plain for 100's years without disease but sometimes it happens every 10 years.

sumthinelse · Jan 4, 2003

Originally posted by farting bob
i thought it was a random event. a citizen could work on a flood plain for 100's years without disease but sometimes it happens every 10 years.

It's still a mystery to me. In my actual PBEM game I have at most 2 citizens in flood plains for 50 turns (100 chances to get diseased) and had 2 outbreaks. That would suggest a probability of 2/100, 2%. Maybe 1%, maybe 3%.

So I created a scenario with 20 citizens in flood plains for 90 turns (1800 chances), without sanitation, and got zero outbreaks of disease!

:confused:

Guess I will create one with 200 in flood plains for 50 turns (10000)...

farting bob · Jan 4, 2003

you most be really bored at the moment. :lol:

sumthinelse · Jan 4, 2003

Originally posted by farting bob
you most be really bored at the moment.

Well, that's one way of looking at it.

But let's say you are playing chess and you don't know all the rules. In fact, lots of people you know are playing chess but don't all the rules either. As far as you know, the rules are not all written down. Would it make you a better player if you could discover the rules?

The Last Conformist · Jan 4, 2003

What makes you think that having more citizens increases the risk of disease? Not that I've taken any data on my diseace outbreaks, but my impression is that it's per city, not per citizen.

According to the Civilopedia, disease only strikes units fortified in Jungle. I've never seen it happen - but then I've only fortified units in Jungles a very few times.

sumthinelse · Jan 4, 2003

Originally posted by The Last Conformist
What makes you think that having more citizens increases the risk of disease? Not that I've taken any data on my diseace outbreaks, but my impression is that it's per city, not per citizen.

That's a good point. I wouldn't design the game like that but that could be how it works. Since you don't get disease when none of your citizens are in a flood plain, I assumed it was per citizen, but it could be that each city that has at least one worked flood plain and no sanitation has the same chance.

There also seems to be a disease bug in PTW -- some scientific advance other than sanitation seems to be preventing disease in flood plains.

sumthinelse · Jan 4, 2003

OK, here is the bug, I think. After you discover Engineering, citizens don't get disease from flood plains. That is why I got no disease in 90 turns with many citizens on flood plains in my scenario: I had engineering.

Silverflame · Jan 4, 2003

Originally posted by sumthinelse
OK, here is the bug, I think. After you discover Engineering, citizens don't get disease from flood plains. That is why I got no disease in 90 turns with many citizens on flood plains in my scenario: I had engineering.

Are you sure? Because Ive never had disease strike me before. Kind of strange actually...

sumthinelse · Jan 4, 2003

Originally posted by Silverflame

Are you sure? Because Ive never had disease strike me before. Kind of strange actually...

This is PTW, but I think citizens also get disease on flood plains in civ3. It depends on how many citizens are working flood plains. I am getting 3 to 4 deaths per 100 citizens working flood plains per turn, unless I discover engineering, in which case I get no disease.

I would test the engineering bug in civ3 but I an too lazy

But here is one of Cracker's examples from civ3. His example had some disease deaths but the exact # of deaths, and how many citizens were working flood plains, is unclear (that wasn't his main point):

http://www.civfanatics.com/doc/civ3/cracker/civ3_starts/gotm8_russ_start.htm

Willem · Jan 4, 2003

Originally posted by sumthinelse
OK, here is the bug, I think. After you discover Engineering, citizens don't get disease from flood plains. That is why I got no disease in 90 turns with many citizens on flood plains in my scenario: I had engineering.

It's not a bug and it's not Engineering. "Disables Diseases from Flood Plains" is a flag you select, and Sanitation is the tech that has it.

sumthinelse · Jan 5, 2003

Originally posted by Willem

It's not a bug and it's not Engineering. "Disables Diseases from Flood Plains" is a flag you select, and Sanitation is the tech that has it.

I know about the flag and I know that Sanitation has it. I know how it's supposed to work but it does work as advertised in PTW.

You didn't test it, did you? I guess you are trying to help but .... please submit a saved PTW game with engineering researched where it is possible to get disease in a flood plain if you think I am wrong.

CrackedCrystal · Jan 5, 2003

Originally posted by sumthinelse

I know about the flag and I know that Sanitation has it. I know how it's supposed to work but it does work as advertised in PTW.

You didn't test it, did you? I guess you are trying to help but .... please submit a saved PTW game with engineering researched where it is possible to get disease in a flood plain if you think I am wrong.

Can we say "Don't mess with Texas!" :lol:

sumthinelse · Jan 5, 2003

Originally posted by CrackedCrystal

Can we say "Don't mess with Texas!"

Yes, and "Don't mess with Bangkok" too.

What is the probability of dying of disease ?

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