John McCain Takes Reasonable Stance On Iraq War...

Pontiuth Pilate

Pontiuth Pilate

Republican Jesus!
Joined
Jun 11, 2003
Messages
7,980
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Taking stock in the Lord
...three years ago:

We do not have time to spare. If we do not meaningfully improve services and security in Iraq over the next few months, it may be too late. We will risk an irreversible loss of Iraqi confidence and reinforce the efforts of extremists who seek our defeat and threaten Iraq's democratic future.
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And what's McCain calling for now?

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) - U.S. Sen. John McCain, a Republican from Arizona, said on Saturday he was preparing a resolution setting a series of targets for the Iraqi government as a "last chance" effort to reverse U.S. failure.

The Senate resolution would set benchmarks for the Iraqi government to defuse the escalating conflict and create the conditions for a U.S. withdrawal, McCain said at a briefing at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

It calls on the Iraqi government to hold provincial elections, pursue and punish criminal acts, and spend down a $10 billion reconstruction fund designed to provide basic services and education in Iraq.

"I cannot guarantee success but I can guarantee the consequences of failure," said McCain, an outspoken member of the Senate Armed Services Committee who supports President George W. Bush's plan to sent 21,500 troops to Iraq. "This is our last chance in many respects."
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how many times have we been told the next X months in Iraq will be "crucial" and/or the "last chance" or last "corner to be turned"?

Our Congress and President are like a not-too-bright child playing the carnival game where you have to throw the ball through the hole. No matter how many times he tries and fails, he's convinced that the next throw will win him the teddy bear. "Just gimme one more dollar to try again!"

The voters have to be the responsible parents. The game is over. The mission has failed. Throwing good money after bad will solve nothing. WE LOST. The concern of the American people right now must be to cut the losses.
 
Let's see if I can resurrect this. I'm all about managing risk and it's obvious the situation (in Iraq) has descended into chaos. Four different wars in one.

So we leave...what then?
 
We leave, Iraq falls apart. Civil war. Lots of people dead. Result, Shia theocratic dictatorship allied with Iran, probably.

The point is - does anyone think that won't happen if we stay for one more year? Five more years? Ten?

Failures have consequences. Right now thanks to our failure there is no outcome for Iraq even approaching the adjectives "good" or "acceptable".
 
Pontiuth Pilate said:
We leave, Iraq falls apart. Civil war. Lots of people dead. Result, Shia theocratic dictatorship allied with Iran, probably.

The point is - does anyone think that won't happen if we stay for one more year? Five more years? Ten?

Failures have consequences. Right now thanks to our failure there is no outcome for Iraq even approaching the adjectives "good" or "acceptable".
Click to expand...
What about partition?

I think that's a pontential solution that should be pushed, with the troops keeping the place from falling completely apart in the meantime.
 
Perfection said:
What about partition?

I think that's a pontential solution that should be pushed, with the troops keeping the place from falling completely apart in the meantime.
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You cannot partition Iraq without near-genocidal wars being waged.

I'm assuming that you're suggesting a partition along Kurdish/Shia/Sunni lines. The Kurdish state would be annexed and ethnically cleansed by a Turkey intent on preserving it's own tentative internal security, and the other two states would be constantly at war with each other at the behest of various Middle East dictatorships.
 
The problem with partitioning is that people have an easier time when they're trying to blow up the enemy. They know where to go, and where to focus their efforts.
 
Has anyone considered what a partition might do to Baghdad, a city of 5-8 million people?

Although to be fair, the city is already polarizing on ethnic lines without a partition.
 
Pontiuth Pilate said:
We leave, Iraq falls apart. Civil war. Lots of people dead. Result, Shia theocratic dictatorship allied with Iran, probably.

The point is - does anyone think that won't happen if we stay for one more year? Five more years? Ten?

Failures have consequences. Right now thanks to our failure there is no outcome for Iraq even approaching the adjectives "good" or "acceptable".
Click to expand...
You may be right and the situation has already descended beyond civil war. Shia vs. Sunni, Shia vs. Shia, Al Qaeda and the insurgents all playing a part. But can we see in the short run if there's a way for the Iraqi government to take control of the situation? If not then we probably need to cut bait and accept the consequences that this will be the single most dangerous place in the world.

It would have been heady if the Iraqis would take care of their own but there seems to be a stubborn Arab refusal to admit the sectarian bias is at the heart of modern Arab life. The pent up hatred by the oppressed Shias is something we've miscalculated.


I think Iraqis are a prouder people than to allow Iranians to take control as we've seen with the variety of violent factions. One thing that Iraqis have is control the religious sites in Karbala and Najaf. If we know one thing about Ali Sistani is that he does not politicize the religion like the Imams in Qom but I do believe the citizens want some type of theocratic rule.
 
Whomp, there's a fair amount of Iraqis that are not interested in theocratic rule, but they're the moderates and moderates don't run around killing their neighbours. Remember that Iraq during Saddam was a secular dictatorship rather than a religious one. A lot of Iraqis are well educated (of course a lot of the best brains fled during Saddam's regime)..
 
Pasi Nurminen said:
You cannot partition Iraq without near-genocidal wars being waged.

I'm assuming that you're suggesting a partition along Kurdish/Shia/Sunni lines. The Kurdish state would be annexed and ethnically cleansed by a Turkey
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WHICH TURKEY?!
Pasi Nurminen said:
intent on preserving it's own tentative internal security, and the other two states would be constantly at war with each other at the behest of various Middle East dictatorships.
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What's we do is get them to form some sort of confederacy so you get the bests of both worlds!
 
ironduck said:
Whomp, there's a fair amount of Iraqis that are not interested in theocratic rule, but they're the moderates and moderates don't run around killing their neighbours. Remember that Iraq during Saddam was a secular dictatorship rather than a religious one. A lot of Iraqis are well educated (of course a lot of the best brains fled during Saddam's regime)..
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I've read that in Faoud Ajami's book "Foreigner's Gift but I also watched a documentary(forgot the name) this weekend that showed the common man in Iraq having a preference for a theocractic rule. Herein lies the problem of democracy.

I don't think Iran has the influence to control the country the way some people may think. Iraq is a big country with wealth and resources of its own. Najaf is a sacred city of Shiaism and there seems to be inherent conflict between the ambitions of Iran's radicals in Qom and the Shia clergy of Najaf.

However, the wild card seems to be Moqtada al-Sadr, who seems motivated by a desire for vengeance against the senior clerics of Najaf, who he believed had abandoned his father in his hour of need. Though he's not a scholar like Ali Sistani he seems to have some lineage that makes him untouchable.
 
Whomp said:
there seems to be a stubborn Arab refusal to admit the sectarian bias is at the heart of modern Arab life. The pent up hatred by the oppressed Shias is something we've miscalculated.
Click to expand...

I keep seeing this over and over again - the explanation that Iraq is violent because sectarian conflict was inevitable / Arabs don't "do" democracy / we offered the Iraqis a fair chance and they said no - and it couldn't be more wrong. I'm not picking on Whomp specifically but I just want to repost a reply to this I wrote a while ago:

Pontiuth Pilate said:
If we had been subjected to a month-long bombing campaign that killed 110,000 Americans [same percentage of our population as Iraq's casualties] followed by eight months in which there was no running water, no electricity, no food, no government, a shattered economy, and the military and prisons were disbanded and emptied into the general population accompanied with the looting of unsecured arsenals and resource buildings, [we] would be sniping at each other with black-market AK-47s right now.
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If the reconstruction had worked AND if we had had enough troops on the ground, Iraq might be a functional country right now. Because the USA government had no plan, Iraq's descent into chaos was indeed inevitable.
The failure is ours, not theirs.
 
I think it's pretty well understood that the aftermath has been chaotic, mismanaged and in large part due to our naivety but it takes two to tango.

I think most of us expected the Iraqis to take some responsibility for their country but we miscalculated the Shia hatred of their Sunni oppressors. It seems the tipping point was the bombing of the Samarra mosque seemed to accelerate the hatred.

Moqtada al-Sadr and Musab al Zarqawi were simply the fuel on the fire.
 
Pontiuth Pilate said:
If the reconstruction had worked AND if we had had enough troops on the ground, Iraq might be a functional country right now. Because the USA government had no plan, Iraq's descent into chaos was indeed inevitable.
The failure is ours, not theirs.
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A huge part of the problem imho was the disbanding the Iraqi military. The Iraqi government would already had thousands of troops well experienced in keeping the country secure, and the reconstruction would have worked much better.
 
Pasi Nurminen said:
You cannot partition Iraq without near-genocidal wars being waged.

I'm assuming that you're suggesting a partition along Kurdish/Shia/Sunni lines. The Kurdish state would be annexed and ethnically cleansed by a Turkey intent on preserving it's own tentative internal security, and the other two states would be constantly at war with each other at the behest of various Middle East dictatorships.
Click to expand...

Then we can arm each side and let them kill each other off. :lol:

But seriously, on the first item you posted:
No matter how many times he tries and fails, he's convinced that the next throw will win him the teddy bear.
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And it is possible that he may. It is also possible he may miss. The possibility of him making it is still present. At least with the ball throwing scenario at least.
 
I'm seriously getting impatient with this Iraq war thing. We should take our last chance to bring security to Baghdad. Put in curfews where only Iraqi and American soldiers are allowed on the streets, and shoot anyone who breaks it. Go after the milita groups. Arrest anyone within the Government that is corrupt or has ties to terorists or militas. Step up training of the ISF. Bush needs to use the surge to his advantage and really get serious about bringing peace this time. If Nouri al-Maliki has to temporarily be a dictator for a few months to bring peace, then that would be worth it.
 
If america leaves now iraq becauses a civil war zone with Saudi backed forces fighting irani, or even a real war between the two plus turkey protecting its interests. More generations of Iraqis will grow up as 12 year old little soliders.

And next time someone flys some planes into americas towers they will probably deserve it.
 
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