SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

I'd assume he's going after Gandhi, too.

Questions:
1) Do we need to defend Galley City? It's Gandhi's only Confucian city, so I'd like him to keep it for now. We'd need quite some axes for that.
2) Does a worker steal in any way mess with his war prep? It would be nice to score some common war plusmods with Gandhi, so I'd like to exploit this as much as possible.
 
Given that Gandhi will found Christianity in 5 turns trying to keep him in Confunicism will be futile. I wouldn't mind if De Gaulle did attack galley city-he would probably lose a unit or to do do it, as well as divert some production into relatively useless galleys to reach the city once Pigs border pops in 3 turns. This would also enable us to recapture the city earlier than we would otherwise have done.

I think we would only get + mods with Gandhi if we were both at war with France at the same time. Given the time it is likely to take De Gaulle to go to war and then make peace we should still get some if we waited until we had maces before going to war.
 
Since there doesn't seem to be any movement today in moving this forward, I'll have to end my turn set and hand off to the next player. As I said, I wouldn't be able to play until Monday, so it's better to hand it off now...

bcool, I guess you're up.
 
How late can you play today, Mitchum? I've been studying the save, but just haven't come to any conclusions yet. I'd kind of like to see you wrap up your planning, to keep things moving as fast as possible.
 
I won't be able to comment on the save 'till late tonight or possibly even tmr morning. Up to you guys if you wanna take it a bit further tonight. No objections.
 
I can play for the next 2 hours or so. What I propose for the next 4 turns is to follow my PPP with the following exceptions:

1. Build two chariots in Moscow rather than the market
2. Continue to pillage the road connecting Rheims to the rest of De Gaulle's empire.
3. W1 will scrub/farm the rice in Pigs. It will be many turns before it is needed plus a farmed, unirrigated rice (+4F) isn't that much better than a scrubbed rice (+3F) if it doesn't get farmed in time.
4. W3 will scrub the GP Farm site
5. Research Aesthetics -> Literature for the GLib rather than MC -> Machinery (unless I misunderstood our priority here)

Once I stop, we will be at the point in Moscow where we can build a worker, a setter or an axe or two.
 
When is the AI willing to talk?

I believe I've got this figured out now, and it's just a bit tricky. The formula for when he'll talk if we DoW him is:

RefuseDuration = RefuseToTalk * {20+(80*AIWarSuccess*2/HumanSuccess}/100

If he Dows us, the above equation is doubled.

Here's the code:
Spoiler :
Code: 
		int iRefuseDuration = (GC.getLeaderHeadInfo(getPersonalityType()).getRefuseToTalkWarThreshold() * ((GET_TEAM(getTeam()).AI_isChosenWar(GET_PLAYER(ePlayer).getTeam())) ? 2 : 1));
		
		int iOurSuccess = 1 + GET_TEAM(getTeam()).AI_getWarSuccess(GET_PLAYER(ePlayer).getTeam());
		int iTheirSuccess = 1 + GET_TEAM(GET_PLAYER(ePlayer).getTeam()).AI_getWarSuccess(getTeam());
		if (iTheirSuccess > iOurSuccess * 2)
		{
			iRefuseDuration *= 20 + ((80 * iOurSuccess * 2) / iTheirSuccess);
			iRefuseDuration /= 100;
		}
The tricky part is calculating what I called AIWarSuccess and HumanWarSuccess. (iOurSuccess for AI and iTheirSuccess for human in the code.) The formula for these two, respectively, is:

1 + WarSuccess

And there's also this:
EmperorFool said:
WAR_SUCCESS_DEFENDING: 3
WAR_SUCCESS_ATTACKING: 4
WAR_SUCCESS_UNIT_CAPTURING: 1 (Workers/Settlers)
WAR_SUCCESS_CITY_CAPTURING: 10
Click to expand...
but, guess what? It turns out that when you capture only one worker or settler on a tile, it counts as WAR_SUCCESS_ATTACKING: 4. If you happen to capture 2 workers together then it's WAR_SUCCESS_ATTACKING: 4 + WAR_SUCCESS_UNIT_CAPTURING: 1 = 5.

--------------------

Okay, so that means for de Gaulle, with RefuseToTalk = 5t, if we lose no battle:
If we capture 1 worker, he'll talk in 2t.
If we capture 2 workers, each on a different tile, he'll talk the next turn!
If we capture 1 wkr and 1 unit, each on a different tile, he'll talk next turn!​
No matter what happens, he'll talk after 5 turns, as long as we DoW him.

If he DoWs us, the wait time doubles.
 
One more thing: On T92, dG was unwilling to DoW Gandhi, because "He would have nothing to gain." I think dG is planning to DoW us. :eek: No matter what, I think we'd be idiots to assume otherwise, because if he brings a SoD to Pigs, we can fold up our tents.

The significance is this:
1. If he DoWs us, it's 10t for him to talk, and don't count on it being less, because he'll win a battle.
2. We have 2 choices: 1) Surprise attack him and get peace 2t or 5t later; or 2) bribe him for 1g, thus creating a DoP for 10t.
 
How soon might de Gaulle DoW us?

Judging from this:
klarius said:
If I counted correctly :crazyeye:, we are still no land target of Gandhi. Then it can only be a max war preparation. That would mean a minimum of 13 turns preparation in BTS epic (unless double our power, which is not the case).
Click to expand...
It might be as soon as 9t (Normal speed), or if his power is double ours (don't ask me...), even sooner. I don't know the code on this, so this is all iffy. This would be an excellent moment for Silu or ZPV to chime in.

(I'm pretty sure we wouldn't be a land target of dG, because we don't have >7 land tiles adjacent to dG's culture, so the above presumably applies.)
 
@Mitchum,
I'm ok with those 4t.

LowtherCastle said:
One more thing: On T92, dG was unwilling to DoW Gandhi, because "He would have nothing to gain." I think dG is planning to DoW us. :eek: No matter what, I think we'd be idiots to assume otherwise, because if he brings a SoD to Pigs, we can fold up our tents.

The significance is this:
1. If he DoWs us, it's 10t for him to talk, and don't count on it being less, because he'll win a battle.
2. We have 2 choices: 1) Surprise attack him and get peace 2t or 5t later; or 2) bribe him for 1g, thus creating a DoP for 10t.
Click to expand...
I don't think "Nothing to gain" matters. Gandhi is obviously a viable target for the DOW dice roll. Sure it could be us, but I doubt it.

You're right, though. If the stack starts moving towards Galley City, we can't really know if it's going for Pigs instead... We may have to assume we're the target.
 
LowtherCastle said:
RefuseDuration = RefuseToTalk * {20+(80*AIWarSuccess*2/HumanSuccess}/100
Click to expand...

I tested your numbers and they worked (i.e. 1 turn if capture two different workers and 2 turns if catpure one worker). But I'm a bit confused with your formula. If AIWarSuccess = 0 and RefuseToTalk = 5, then we have 5*(20 + (80*0*2)/HumanSucess)/100.

No matter what the HumanSuccess is, the numerator will be 0, leading to 5* 20/100 = 1.

What am I missing?
 
LowtherCastle said:
Judging from this:It might be as soon as 9t (Normal speed), or if his power is double ours (don't ask me...), even sooner. I don't know the code on this, so this is all iffy. This would be an excellent moment for Silu or ZPV to chime in.
Click to expand...
It's impossible to know. If he has iron, he's obviously not attacking with archers, so he'll need time for build-up. We have to use our chariots to keep track of it as much as possible.
 
babybluepants said:
It's impossible to know. If he has iron, he's obviously not attacking with archers, so he'll need time for build-up. We have to use our chariots to keep track of it as much as possible.
Click to expand...

You should see my notiations in the actual game showing his troop movements. I have only seen archers so far.

I assume that we can figure out what he's been building from the espionage data I posted.
 
LowtherCastle said:
2. We have 2 choices: 1) Surprise attack him and get peace 2t or 5t later; or 2) bribe him for 1g, thus creating a DoP for 10t.
Click to expand...

There really isn't anything to surprise attack at the moment. How do we bribe him for 1g? Justing giving him 1g does nothing as far as I can tell... unless he asks for it first.

Does any of this affect our actions in the next 4T? If so, then I shouldn't play. If not, then let me know and I'll play the next 4 turns as described above.
 
Mitchum, you're plan looks fine to me. Under the circumstances, I would recommend that you just play up to the completion of Calendar. I don't think we reached any sort of consensus about our tech path beyond that.
 
LowtherCastle said:
Mitchum, you're plan looks fine to me. Under the circumstances, I would recommend that you just play up to the completion of Calendar. I don't think we reached any sort of consensus about our tech path beyond that.
Click to expand...

OK. We've been vasillating between macemen and the GLib and I agree that there is more to discuss here. I'll play up to T100 without making any moves on that turn so that bcool has free reign to do as he pleases...

Stand by...
 
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