SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

Has anyone actually studied the save to see what we need to do to actually build/whip 10 more chs? Because that would significantly balance out switching to FM, it seems, at least costwise.

Not yet. That will have to be included in my upcoming PPP. Unfortunately, which civics we run will have an impact on what we can do and how quickly. :crazyeye:
 
I think it is more like 3 turns, but the problem is if we don't get the non-scientist with pigs/moscow we are forced into 2 turns of anarchy or a 10+ longer wait. With Pacifism at least we could scramble and overcome that extremely bad luck.

Even with Pacifism, it will take a LONG time to get our next great person if we fail to get a non GS in Moscow or Pigs. At that point, I would vote to revolt with anarchy rather than waiting for the third great person.
 
Can someone remind why we want Moscow to produce our next great person? I'm sure it's been mentioned, but I can't find it... although I didn't look very hard... at all. :D
 
.....
Can someone remind why we want Moscow to produce our next great person? I'm sure it's been mentioned, but I can't find it... although I didn't look very hard... at all.

with Moscow going first on the great person just because not getting a non-scientist would suck. And having Moscow go first increases our odds of getting a non-scientist. Since 2 chances are better than 1. Even if the first chance isn't great.
 
Leaving both CS and Pacifism is a big risk, if both GPs are GSs.

True. But this is a risk we'll have to take if we want to leverage Slavery/Kremlin.

Using bcool's spreadsheet, we could run 6 specs in Pigs (no sci), and pop a non-GS at 94% odds, with Pacifism:
T200 1000gpps
T203 1200gpps

without Pacifism:
T202 1000gpps

Of course, we all know about how 94% odds have been treating us lately...

If I were a betting man (which I am), I'd take 94% odds in Vega$ all day long and be a very rich man!!

So, if we push to get our next great person from Pigs, we can have a non-GS at 94% odds on T200 (Pacifism) or T202 (w/o Pacifism). Poprushing the grocer can speed these up by ~ 1 turn.

In my mind, slavery is required. We have way too many courthouses (edit: and banks/WS) to build in the next 7 turns or so.

The current dilemma is whether to run OR or Pacifism, I guess.

Of course, we also have to settle the SP vs. FM issue too.

I guess dealing with such complexity is why we're getting paid so much to play this game!! :lol:
 
with Moscow going first on the great person just because not getting a non-scientist would suck. And having Moscow go first increases our odds of getting a non-scientist. Since 2 chances are better than 1. Even if the first chance isn't great.

If we did the math, I bet it only adds 1%-2% (EDIT: on the GP from Pigs), which probably isn't worth the delay, IMHO.

EDIT: Or this could be interpreted to mean that if we pop a GS from Pigs first, we'd have to wait several more turns for a great person from Moscow.
 
Has anyone actually studied the save to see what we need to do to actually build/whip 10 more chs? Because that would significantly balance out switching to FM, it seems, at least costwise.

In the test save building the Forbidden Palace in Beijing is worth 46gpt. Building courthouses everywhere would save another 59gpt.

I think I did.

(4 + 20 * 1) * (14+17)/18 * 1.3 * 0.75 *0.5 = 20.15 gold

(inflation adjustment is divided and then you multiply by the same factor so you can just ignore it.)

On the corporation screen it indicates that the cost for Sids in a sixe 14 city with a courthouse is about 20 gold-and the free market discount is definately not included in that calculation. Are we missing something?
 
^^ Where are you testing this? Number of resources affects it quite a bit, for one. The 0.75 in bcool's equation is FM.
Edit: bcool's equation doesn't include the inflation modifier. it should be:
((4 + 20 * 1) * (14+17)/18 * 1.3 * 0.75)/(InflationRate/100+1)) *0.5
Edit2: this is confusing - presumably you take off the inflation modifier - then apply CH - then re-apply inflation to the net cost?

EDIT: Or this could be interpreted to mean that if we pop a GS from Pigs first, we'd have to wait several more turns for a great person from Moscow.
That's why I wanna do Moscow first.

All the calcs above are slowly convincing me to go with OR. I think we have to assume a non-GS with one of Pigs or Moscow, despite our bad luck on GE last game.
 
Where are you testing this? Number of resources affects it quite a bit, for one.

If you go to the corporation screen in the real game it shows you how much maintenance the corp will cost. I know the free market discount is not included in this at the moment because in a test game when I revolt to free market the maintenance costs displayed reduce by the expected 25%.

Edit: xpost with bbp
 
((4 + 20 * 1) * (14+17)/18 * 1.3 * 0.75)/(InflationRate/100+1)) *0.5
Edit2: this is confusing - presumably you take off the inflation modifier - then apply CH - then re-apply inflation to the net cost?

(4 + 20 * 1) * (14+17)/18 * 1.3 * 0.75)/(InflationRate/100+1)) *0.5 * (InflationRate/100 +1) = 20.15 gold
 
If you go to the corporation screen in the real game it shows you how much maintenance the corp will cost.

hmmm... I don't have access to the game but either the displayed cost in the game doesn't multiply by the difficulty factor? (1.3) or the formula we have from the article is wrong?

^^^
ah that is probably it, the game displays the lower cost factoring in dividing by the inflation rate but we multiply by inflation for our real cost of 20 gold.
 
High-Level Goals

Research
I will research Medicine as quickly as possible with minimal beaker overflow, which should take 3 turns (depends on how much gold we get (failed gold and trades) and how much our research rate drops when not in a GA.

I will then set research to Replaceable Parts and the slider to 0% while we collect cash for Sushi spam.

Sid’s Sushi

Research Medicine as quickly as possible (3 turns).
Steal Corporations on the turn we see what Roosevelt is researching.
Set slider to 0% to give us gold to spread Sushi.
Interrupt WS build plans to build an executive in 1 turn.
Spread Sushi to Moscow.
Interrupt cannon builds in Moscow to crank out two quick executives (3 turns) for Siberia and GP Farm.
Siberia can whip an executive or two with overflow into Iron Works.
GP Farm can whip an executive every other turn and draft a musket on the alternate.
Following executives go to Roosevelt (Washington) -> Bahamas -> Hammer City.



Civics
Switch to the following civics on the final turn of our GA.

Representation
Nationhood
Slavery
State PropertyFree Market
Organized Religion

Great People
Pigs will hire 6 specialists (no scientists). It will whip a grocer on T197 and hire two additional merchants on T198. This will generate our next great person on T202 with less than a 10% chance of a GS. Moscow will fire all specialists and work all tiles. This will allow it to build cannon -> CH in 2 turns and prepare it for the Sushi executive spamming stage. As it grows, it will hire scientists.

Wall Street

Fish (note that base hammers goes from 33 to 24 when not in GA or running Castes)

T195 -> courthouse -> 33*1.5 = 49/120
T196 -> courthouse -> 49 + 24 * 1.5 = 85/120
T197 -> whip market for 1 –> 149/150 + 67 (whip) + 24 * 1.5 (forge + OR bonus) = 252/150 -> 102 OF
T198 -> learn Medicine -> Sushi executive -> 102 + 24 * 1.25 = 132/100 -> 32 OF
T199 -> courthouse (whip for 1) -> 85/120 + 67 + 32 OF + 24 * 1.5 = 220/120 -> 100 OF
T200 -> whip bank for 3 –> 47/200 + 67 * 3 + 100 OF + 24 * 1.5 = 384/200 -> 184 OF
T201 -> Wall Street -> 184 OF + 24 * 1.5 = 220 hammers
T202 -> whip grocer for 1 -> 141/150 + 67 + 24 * 1.5 = 244/150 -> 94 OF
T203 -> Wall Street -> 220/600 + 94 + 24 * 1.5 = 350/600
Wall street is ~ 60% done. At 36 hammers/turn, it will be completed in 7 more turns (T210)


GP Farm – Whip bank on T197 for 3 pops.
Cuba – Whip bank on T200 for 3 pops.
Bahamas – Finish bank on T199 with no pop rushing.
Bermuda – Whip bank on T200 for 1 pop.
Rheims – Whip bank on T200 for 3 pops.
Paris – Whip bank on T200 for 3 pops (overflow to finish Knight)

For my reference (because I keep forgetting), here are the relevant hammers/pop (assumes Kremlin):

Code:
Nothing     44.75
OR/Forge    55.75
OR+Forge    67

Espionage
Sabotage Gandhi’s monument in Galley City. Successful spy will head to Beijing.

Keep espionage slider at 0% with all points directed at Roosevelt. Steal Corporations from either Troy or Vlad in 2 turns once we can see what he’s researching and then run a counter espionage mission against Roosevelt in Troy w/50% discount. If he’s researching RP, keep epp on Roosevelt for a potential steal. If he’s not researching RP, direct epp toward Churchill for an eventual steal of Steam Power.

Scrap Copper City for now. Settle Rheims-4E (will need to scrub site first) and spread Confucianism immediately (missionary from Bananas). This will be where we steal Steam Power from Churchill.


Mao
Watch Roosevelt’s sword, which appears to be on it’s way to take out St. Nick. Close borders with Roosevelt if the sword gets close and Mao hasn’t built a second defensive unit by then. If the sword attacks and kills the first defender, close borders if Sword has more than 1/6 strength.

Churchill
Hit Churchill’s stack SW of Orleans with 4 cannons (>99% odds). 2 muskets at Orleans-2S will move into Orleans and then attack the stack from within the city. 7 units at Marseille-2W will attack the stack from the SW. Mace inside will attack the stack. Stack includes 4 axes, 9 spears and 6 cats. The 4 cannons should red-line the 4 axes and damage all of the spears. The 10 units that attack should kill all of the spears and the healthiest axe. The stack will now consist of 6 barrage-wounded cats and 3 red-lined axes. The 2 muskets, mace, 2 cannons and archer should ensure that Orleans is safe.

On the next turn, the healthiest units will take Marseilles. Only one of the LBs is fortified, so a cannon should be able to red-line him without issue (I had taken down the cultural defenses already during my cat-and-mouse games earlier).I will NOT take Marseilles this turnset. I will leave 2 muskets and a treb at Marseilles 2W to keep an eye on the units there. Marseilles is only at pop 2 with only 1 hammer/turn, so he’s not going to be building up there very fast. I will also have a steady stream of cannons and muskets going by, so we can pretty much take the city any time we want.

When Churchill moved his stack to Marseilles SE, the movement of two of our galleys was delayed. In addition, Churchill is starting to build Triremes. So, the galleys will all head down Churchill’s east coast with protection from the caravel and the wounded trireme. I will build another caravel in Rheims to provide additional protection. These galleys will be used to move our troops quickly from Hastings to York to London.

The stack SW of Tours will fortify/heal this turn Musket at Tours-N promotes to Combat 1 and moves W to protect the healing mini-stack, which will all fortify this turn. Move one treb from Tours-N into Tours-SW stack. Move other treb from Tours-N into Tours and upgrade to a cannon.

Spy will come back toward Hastings to provide some intelligence to our advancing stack. Then he will head toward Oxford to ensure that I bring the right units in our landing party.


On T+1, the stack will move to Hastings-E. Galleys 6 and 11 will arrive at Tours-SW and load the healthiest city attackers (assuming the waters are clear). If they still need to heal, this will have to wait until T+2.

On T+2, strip the defenses of Hastings. I will likely have to wait to take the city due to reinforcements and the delay of the galley units.

On T+3, take Hastings. Move all units into Hastings. Move 2 galleys into Hastings and load 2 muskets and 2 accuracy siege.

On T+4, drop off units at York-W. Load city raider units from Hastings into 2 trailing galleys.

On T+5, either take York amphibiously (if odds are acceptable) or drop off city raider units at York-W. Send first two galleys back into Hastings and load 4 more units.

On T+6, take York. Sign temporary CF while muskets/cannons come down from the Marseilles war. All galleys should be in York.

On T+7, heal.

On T+8, declare war. Drop off 8 units at London-NW.

Move three galleys with 1 musket into Nanjing (musket also protects Nanjing from mace on hill). This team will steal workers as often as possible while waiting for reinforcements from the battle around Marseilles to join them, and then they will launch an attack on Oxford. On the turn before the attack (assuming no enemy galleys), load units onto three galleys at Nanjing-W. Unload stack at Oxford-SW to prevent reinforcements from coming. Consider building a settler for Newcastle-3E.

City builds and MM

Spoiler :
Moscow:
Builds: cannon -> courthouse -> cannons -> Sushi executives ASAP
Citizens: work all tiles and hire scientists as city grows
Improvements: pre-WS farms (not the one irrigating the rice) and silk tiles to within 1 turn of completion, which will be finished once we have Sushi here and more food than we know what to do with

Fish:
Builds: as detailed in the Wall Street plan
Improvements: none – May workshop over the ivory tiles in the future, but the commerce from the ivory will be nice once we have market, grocer, bank and Wall Street here.

Siberia:
Builds: Iron Works
Citizens: work WSs as they become available and deer for growth if they aren’t ready yet
Improvements: none

Pigs:
Builds: grocer (whip for 2 on T196) -> university
Citizens: MM specialists as described above.
Improvements: none

GP Farm:
Builds: NP -> bank (whip for 3 on T197) market (for +25% gold). Draft a musket every turn.
Citizens: keep current assignment, which lets us grow back 1 pop/turn and draft 1 musket/turn.
Improvements: pre-farm last two workshops

Cuba:
Builds: forge (2 pop whip, need 10/120 hammers this turn) -> bank (whip for 3 on T200) -> finish settler -> market (for +4 happy)
Citizens: Always run one spy and add merchants at happy cap.
Improvements: none

Bahamas:
Builds: bank (no whip) -> finish harbor -> jail -> market
Citizens: work 1 spy while growing to happy cap working coastal tiles
Improvements: scrub desert 1S -> road tile pointing toward Bcool’s island -> scrub one-tile island north of Bermuda

Bermuda:
Builds: Kremlin -> Confucian missionary (for Bahamas) -> bank (whip for 1 on T200) -> Versailles -> jail -> market
Citizens: maximize growth (i.e. work all land tiles and as many coastal tiles as possible)
Improvements: none

Rheims:
Builds: caravel -> bank (whip for 3 on T200) -> grocer
Citizens: work 1 spy, grow to happy cap and then switch to hammer tiles
Improvements: none for now, but will need to pre-workshop farms for when Sushi is here.

Bananas:
Builds: Confucian missionary (for Rheims-4E) -> Spy (to steal Steam Power) -> market (whip for 2) -> university
Citizens: work 1 spy, grow working coastal tiles.
Improvements: none

Paris:
Builds: forge (whip for 2 on T197) -> bank (whip for 2 on T200) -> courthouse -> Knight -> library
Citizens: grow working coastal tiles, work mine and incense tiles when done
Improvements: mine grassland hill, plantation on incense for +1 happy

Kamchatka:
Builds: forge (for +3 happy) -> Market
Citizens: grow working coastal tiles
Improvements: scrub

Orleans:
Builds: courthouse (whip) -> Forbidden Palace (whip) -> forge -> library
Citizens: grow to happy cap, work all improved tiles and then hire merchants
Improvements: none

Chengdu:
Builds: forge (whip for 2) -> courthouse (whip for 1) -> lighthouse -> forge
Citizens: work 5 improved tiles
Improvements:none, farm plains tile 1S as soon as it becomes ours.

Bcool Island:
Builds: forge -> work boat -> library -> lighthouse
Citizens: work 1 spy and highest food tiles for growth
Improvements: workshops and mines

Shanghai:
Builds: forge (whip for 2) -> university
Citizens: work highest food tiles for growth
Improvements: workshop and mine

The Crabbes:
Builds: lighthouse (chop) -> courthouse (whip)
Citizens: work improved tiles
Improvements: chop forest -> scrub/workshop grassland 1W

Beijing:
Builds: jail -> (hire 2 spies) university
Citizens: 3 spies (5 spies once jail is done), grow to happy cap (take cottages back from Shanghai as possible to benefit from library, academy and market)
Improvements: none

Guangzhou:
Builds: courthouse -> forge (whip for 2) -> lighthouse
Citizens: 2 spies plus food tiles.
Improvements: none

Nanjing:
Builds: courthouse (whip for 2) -> forge
Citizens: high-food tiles for growth + workshops
Improvements: workshops

Hammer City:
Builds: granary (whip for 1) -> courthouse (whip when possible)
Citizens: 2 farms (borrow rice farm) for growth + workshops
Improvements: chop Nanjing forest, workshops

Tours:
Builds: courthouse (whip when possible)
Citizens: food for growth
Improvements: None

Copper (SW of Pigs)Rheims-4E:
Builds: wealth
Citizens:
Improvements: scrub city site

Bcool Island-3NW (good name, anyone?:
Builds: granary (whip for 1) -> courthouse (whip when possible)
Citizens: food for growth.
Improvements: 2 chops as soon as possible once Iron-S+SW city site is scrubbed.

Iron-S+SW (good name, anyone?):
Builds: granary (whip for 1) -> courthouse (whip when possible)
Citizens: 2 farms (borrow rice farm) for growth + workshops
Improvements: plantation on spices plus mine on Iron


Other Turn-by-Turn Reminders
T0
Trade Liberalism to Roosevelt for 120 gold
Trade Guilds to Gandhi for 160 gold

T2
Check what Roosevelt is teching. If not Replaceable Parts, direct epp toward Churchill for a later Steam Power steal.
Steal Corporations.

Every Turn
Draft musket from GP Farm
Check to see if Churchill has Engineering.
Watch out for Churchill’s galleys in Indian Ocean.
Watch Roosevelt’s sword as it approaches St Nick. Pause if it looks like he might lose the city.
Look for Sushi resource trades with Roosevelt and Gandhi.
 
Research:

Should we research Medicine to within 1 turn of completion and then set all sliders to 0%? This will give us the flexibility to run the espionage slider at 100% if Roosevelt has a tech we want to steal, upgrade a unit here or there, or run the science slider.

Either way, there is no rush to learn Medicine until we are running FM, right? So I'd plan to finish Medicine on the turn our next great person is born so that we can revolt to FM and found Sushi right away should he happen to be a non-GS.
 
Sabotage Gandhi’s monument in Galley City.

Keep espionage slider at 0% with all points directed at Roosevelt. Steal Corporations from either Troy or Vlad as soon as it is possible.

You might want to wait for 2 turns for the steal of corporations, that way you will get a glimpse of what Rosey is researching and you have extra espionage for a counter espionage mission and would use 50% stationary bonus in vlad.

Might want to have some small percentage on Gandhi so we can periodically steal his treasury.

If he is researching replaceable parts keep espionage on him, if not I think you switch to Churchill.

Researching Replaceable parts, stealing Steam Power then Railroad is an important goal I think, so I wouldn't necessary keep slider at 0% if we can finish one of those techs.

More later...
Without OR, whips with Forge+SP and Kremlin still get us 60 hammers. So a 2 pop whip of a grocer is possible if we get 31 hammers in the grocer. Which I think is possible in ~5 turns (grows in 3 with 8 specialist, then can work mines, it is close but doable) definitely doable if we only run 6 specialists (no scientists)

The stack SW of Tours will fortify this turn. The 7.5/9 musket in Tours will be Combat 1 promoted and join the stack. All units to the N or NW of Tours will enter the city and fortify/heal. That mace on the hill could easily kill one of our CRIII mace there, so I don’t think it makes sense to heal this turn outside the city.
Don't forget that Churchill doesn't have engineering so his units only can move 2. I would use the spy and move him back towards Hastings to assess the risk. If it is just that mace on the hill fort, then I think you can risk it. Since you have a Mace C1 cover and the musket that can promote and heal a bit.
I would move the stack closer, and I'd have to take a closer look but I think you could move the CRII trebs safely behind that stack.

On the next turn, the healthiest units will take Marseilles. Only one of the LBs is fortified, so a cannon should be able to red-line him without issue (I had taken down the cultural defenses already during my cat-and-mouse games earlier).

Do we even want to waste time taking Marseilles? I'm fine if it doesn't slow us down, but I'm just thinking that cannon could be moved to the more important front of York/London.
 
Holding the slider makes sense if we expect someone to research RP for us. Not sure I'd expect that, though... There's also the treasury stealing danger, right?

Research RP > Steal Steam > Research RR is the goal, yes (asap).
 
So I'm still in favor of Pacifism rather than OR

Getting Sushi 3 turns earlier translates to roughly 30 food in each of cities since we we spread Sushi to every city at least 3 turns earlier.

Plus when are we going to launch?

If we are going have 5 more GA then that is 60 turns, can we finish the game in 60 turns?

If we delay this GA with OR ~3 turns will that mean we just have 3 fewer turns in GA before the end of the game?
 
If the game is over in 60t, then I don't think we'll have time to spam GPs for the 5th GA, although I could be wrong. But more to the point, if we start our next GA in the next several turns, will we have time to spam 3 more different GPs for the GA 12t later?

The thing with starving cities to spam GPs is that they'll have to grow first, so there's going to be phase just after we found Sushi in which we're not spamming them so fast.
 
I'm getting funky numbers for poprushing using the test save, as in:

With 1.25 hammer multiplier:
1pop = 55h
2pop = 110h
3pop = 167h :crazyeye:

With 1.5 hammer multiplier:
1pop = 65h :crazyeye:
2pop = 134h
3pop = more than 199h

ANyone else getting this?
 
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