SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

Mitchum · Dec 16, 2010

OK, I'm going to stop now. London is ours with no losses. But Canterbury will take two turns to take because he kept reinforcing it. New Castle will take another turn as well. So, if we want to take those two plus Marseilles, will have to do it on T+1 and sign a CF then.

Bing-Mao is ready.

Mitchum's Oasis has been settled.

Sushi is spreading.

We have enough epp on Churchill, so I directed it toward Stalin last turn.

Save will be uploaded in 2 minutes.

Mitchum · Dec 16, 2010

Who's up next? I need a break.

Here is your Session Turn Log from 1420 AD to 1450 AD:

Spoiler :

Mitchum · Dec 16, 2010

Just in case it wasn't clear above, our entire army other than the one attacking London can still move this turn. There are more defenders that attackers in Caterbury plus he's building a crossbow that will be done next turn, so it will take two turns to capture if we want it.

babybluepants · Dec 16, 2010

Mitchum!

I'll have a look at the save in an hour and comment.

@mdy,
can you play next?

LowtherCastle · Dec 16, 2010

Hi Duckweed! Well played!

babybluepants · Dec 16, 2010

This morning:

Spoiler :

Does that mean winning in 1750 AD? That save date is still showing up, but usually the system doesn't display the last save, correct?
Thoughts?

babybluepants · Dec 16, 2010

Very rough for 3 more golden ages (I'll get into spreadsheets later, no idea how realistic it actually is to expect 3 more). I think we might wanna run artists in Pigs now, merhcants in Fish and GP. In any case, we need to work at this hard now.

3+4+5 = 12 (8 max Caste, 2 freebies)

3-1 1200 T+12 GS (Moscow) - actual cost: 268gpp option 3-2 @ 468gpp avg rate: 22gpt / 39gpt
3-2 1400 T+12 GM (Fish) - actual coast: 1007gpp option 3-1 @ 807gpp avg rate: 82gpt / 67gpt
3-3 1600 T+12 GA (Pigs) - actual cost: 1443gpp avg rate: 121gpt
4-1 0000 T+24 GS (Physics)
4-2 1800 T+24 GM (GP Farm) - actual cost: 1622gpp avg rate: 68gpt
4-3 2000 T+24 GM Spy (Beijing) - actual cost: 1541gpp avg rate: 64gpt
4-4 2200 T+24 GE (Siberia) - actual cost: 1644gpp avg rate: 69gpt
5-1 2400 T+36 GP (London)? - actual cost: 2400gpp avg rate: 67gpt
5-2 2600 T+36 Spy (somewhere)?
5-3 2800 T+36 GS (somewhere)?
5-4 3000 T+36 GA (Pigs) - actual cost: 4443gpp avg rate: 124gpt
5-5 0000 T+36 GE (Fusion)

Some could obviously switch.

Edit: ~~seems impossible.~~ Not so impossible, now that I look at required rates...
Edit: Moscow is currently GS-GE. That means we delay Siberia for next, and can't depend on researching Physics after RR.
Edit: need ConfMiss and SushiExec in London asap, build Jew Temple, build Conf Temple...
Edit: when wonders obsolete, do we still get gpp?
Edit: I think we'll probably want heavy backup on the 5-GP GA especially. Maybe run 7-8 cities, push the lower odds first, then abort/push as needed based on results. Pure genetics are nearly impossible anywhere.

LowtherCastle · Dec 16, 2010

babybluepants said:
Thoughts?

I think we need to finish by T259. So we just take a day or so to wire that and then do it.

babybluepants · Dec 16, 2010

That means launch by T+44, so we probably should have fired off the GA T-3 and figured out our gpp from there. Def. now and need to make sure we can run continuous.

babybluepants · Dec 17, 2010

Looked at gpp a bit more.

Getting 3GP in 12t - hard to get the third (Moscow+Pigs is easy). That one's probably the biggest limiting factor of all (aside from maybe the last two for the 5GP, which will be low odds most likely).

Also, sucks that we didn't think to keep Pigs genetics pure. It's a bit of a mess now - hard to know what type to push elsewhere.

MOSCOW 1400gpp (GS or GE)
Current: 932gpp
Needed: 468gpp
Target date: T+11
201gpp in 2t - Wonders+6-7Sci
201gpp in 1t - Wonders+19Sci (starve, I guess) --> Gives us an extra turn for the 1200gpp, which makes a big difference

PIGS 1600gpp (GA/GM)
Current: 157gpp
Needed: 1443gpp
Target date: T+12 > 121gpp/t
1242gpp in 11t > 113gpp/t
203gpp in 1t - TGL+NE+16Mer/Art (starve if needed)

Options for 1200: Siberia, Fish and Beijing

Fish is too slow, because of WS build

Siberia is overlapping Moscow with GE odds + it needs to focus on hammers right now. We should save it for the 4GP GA.

Beijing - needs Sushi asap, so it can run 3-4 more specialists, keeping only food tiles. Presumably the one from Kamchatka? It would probably run Artists, with Pigs going all Merchant. That avoids overlap with Moscow, at least.

We obviously don't need 3 in 12t. Delaying by 1-2t makes it significantly easier, ofc. Still, I think we should try. Maybe someone else has alternate ideas.

babybluepants · Dec 17, 2010

Are we whipping WS, btw?

babybluepants · Dec 17, 2010

I think the most important thing this TS is figuring out an efficient plan for Roosevelt. Our troops in England are stretched thin ATM, and still need some turns to finish that campaign.

babybluepants · Dec 17, 2010

There's a lot of random islands, btw. We should make sure we explore everything soonish, so we can plan the scrubbing in good time.

Edit: are we gifting Gandhi the Demo pre-reqs?

bcool · Dec 17, 2010

scrubbing might take priority over anything else short term for our workers. Other then helping out cities that need to produce GP for us.

I'll have more to say tomorrow evening.

Mitchum · Dec 17, 2010

babybluepants said:
I think the most important thing this TS is figuring out an efficient plan for Roosevelt. Our troops in England are stretched thin ATM, and still need some turns to finish that campaign.

I wouldn't say our troops are spread thin. They are spread out in 4 stacks for the 4-pronged attack plan. We would need to attack Canterbury this turn and we can finish it off on T+1 since there are so many units there. The other two cities can be taken on T+1 as well. That sets up up to sign a CF next turn, gift Steam and steal SP with one of our two spies. We can then wipe out Churchill's remaining cities in the next few turns while our units are in the area or just leave him down there to freeze. I don't have the save on this computer so I don't recall how many Mining Inc. resources he may have other than the copper west of London.

Regarding Mao, we should gift him Bing-Mao this turn. I forgot to do it last turn. :blush:

Then, with the cannon near Moscow and the knight in the queue at Moscow, we can take St Nick on T+1. There are two spies right there that can move in on T+1. We can either wait the required number of turns until we have enough epp to steal Military Science and gift Stalin the city then, which risks him founding another city. Or, we can gift it to him on T+1 and hope that our spies are undetected until we have enough epp. With more scouting we'll be able to figure out if he even can settle another city pre-Astronomy.

Regarding the gpp gene pool in Pigs, we did think about it. We had to run a hodge-podge of great people when not in Caste System just to get the GM that we now have. Had we kept the gene pool pure, we'd still be waiting for that great person to be born.

In Moscow, we have a good shot at getting a non-GM/GS. I think we need to do whatever we can to decrease the odds of a GS. We'll be running scientists in a lot of cities, so I'm not worried about getting a GS later.

Regarding WS, once we trigger our GA, I think we can finish it a turn (or two?) sooner than what it currently shows. I'm okay either way, but prefer not to whip wonders if we can avoid it. We have plenty of food, but whip unhappiness is a bigger concern.

I think we need to start growing GP Farm (i.e. no more whipping or drafting). That means that we'll need two or three cities to build whatever army we need to take out Roosevelt and Gandhi. I think our current force (once maces are upgraded to grens) is enough to take them out one at a time. If we want to go after both of them, we'll need two or three cities cranking out mainly siege.

We also need a plan for how we're going to take out Stalingrad. I don't have much experience with nukes, but it would be nice if we could get him to fire them off at our caravels.

I agree with bpp that our great person production needs to be figured out very carefully so that we can do our best to get the great people we need when we need them.

With all of the food Sushi brings, we're going to have a lot of population. I think most cities will need a market and grocer to deal with the pops. Other happy/healthy buildings may also be needed. Since we have mainly farms and work shops, maybe we should have theaters in all of our cities so that we can ease the culture slider up to allow us to run more specialists.

Once we switch research to RR, we should do what we can to keep our slider at 100% for the rest of the game (unless we fiddle with the culture slider a bit). That means that some cities will have to build wealth and we'll have to run merchants in a lot of our cities. Science is currently the critical path in this game, so anything we can do to keep the gold slider at 0% will speed up our victory date.

@bbp, yes, obsolete wonders still provide their gpp. It looks like you already figured this out.

mdy · Dec 17, 2010

@mdy,
can you play next?

Yes, I can take the next turnset. I will post some thoughts in a few hours once I have had a chance to study the save carefully.

EDIT: One major point that has just occured to me: Maybe it would be better to attack Gandhi next instead of Rooservelt. He is weaker and an easier target, and this would leave Rooservelt free to research techs for us to steal. We can quickly put enough espionage on him to see what tech he is researching and if he researches a tech we already have we could gift it to him to ensure he is always researching something for us.

Given the relatively short time left I think we should immediately start our next GA and revolt to Caste System and Pacifism.

mdy · Dec 17, 2010

How to ensure we have 3 different GP's within the next turn for the next golden age:

Immediately revolt to Caste System/Pacifism and start our 2 GP golden age.

Moscow:

hire 1 engineer amd 1 spy. Hire 1 scientist when the city grows.

generates GP on T+7. 36% GS 35% GE 15%GP 6%GA 5%Gspy

Pigs:

Immediately hire 9 artists, work 3 food and 3 hammer tiles. Spread Sid's with next executive from GP farm. Hire additional artists as the city grows.

generates GP on T+10 85% GA 7% GS 7.5%GM, 1.5%Gspy

Fish:

Hires 3 merchants immediately. Also works fish and all land tiles except watermill. Builds wall street on T+4. Then hire 13 merchants.

generates GP on T+12 97.5% GM 2.5% GP negligable Gspy

This should give us a probability of about 92% for being able to start our 3 GP golden age before the second has ended.

Longer Term GP plans:

GP farm:

I think we should stop drafting GP farm and start building the population for the end game. Once we are working all tiles starting hiring specialists, starting with prophets, engineers, and spys, then probably scientists. In order to make more room for rare specialists I think we should just build buildings there after the current executive was built. I would also leave the current hammer improvements as we have more than enough food there for now.

Siberia:

Immediately hire a spy and engineer, and then 3 more engineers once we have the ironworks, this should put this city in a position to generate a GP for our 4 GP golden age. Build jail/intelligence agency after ironworks to open up spy slots.

Other cities:

As they run out of good tiles to work hire specialists in order: prophets, engineers, spys, then either all scientists/merchants/artists.(but with more cities running scientists than artists)

Exceptions: Bermuda/Beijing should focus on spys first.

Rheims should concentrate on generating a GM for the 4 GP golden age.

LowtherCastle · Dec 17, 2010

mdy, I think you should decide what poprushing we want to do before revolting, so we can then poprush and revolt. That would make planning a bit easier.

In general, we want to run as many specialists and as many of the best specialists for max research as possible. The way to do this, in theory, is to produce our GPs far enough in advance of when we need them to pick and choose for our GAs.

So a preferable solution right now would be to spam 4 GPs in the next 12 turns, rather than 3.

mdy · Dec 17, 2010

Spreading Shushi:

The limit of only being able to have/be building 5 executives is going to delay the spreading of Shushi.

The executive in Bahamas can go to Bermuda immediately. The one being built there can be sent to BCool island. Theareafter Bermuda builds all the remaining executives for the islands.

The executive built next turn in GP farm spreads it to pigs.

The one being built in Kamchatks goes to Siberia. We can also then build an executive in Siberia for Paris and Orleans, Hammer City and into China.

The one in steam can spread it to Rheims, which can then send send one to Beijing which can in turn spread it to the surrounding cities and China. Rheims can send the occasional executive into England. Rheims should probably start hiring merchants once it reaches size 17 so it can generate one for the 4 GP golden age.

mdy · Dec 17, 2010

In general, we want to run as many specialists and as many of the best specialists for max research as possible. The way to do this, in theory, is to produce our GPs far enough in advance of when we need them to pick and choose for our GAs.

So a preferable solution right now would be to spam 4 GPs in the next 12 turns, rather than 3.

Ideally, this is of course true, though in the current circumstances it looks like it is going to be very difficult(maybe impossible) to push out 4 GP's in 12 turn, though I will have another look and see if it can be done.

mdy, I think you should decide what poprushing we want to do before revolting, so we can then poprush and revolt. That would make planning a bit easier.

Good point. looking at the save I think we can whip:
The library in crab and Chengdu, universities in Cuba, pigs, and Bananas, Executive in Karmatchka, Knight in Paris, courthouse in Nanjing and Hasting(though we currently have 0 hammers in it), granary in Tours (again no hammers invested yet)

SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

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