SGOTM 20 - Misfit Gypsy Nuts

Does a coastal city with borders touching "Holy" borders across water have a better chance of catching a religion?

I also like securing the elephants.

I could be swayed the other way also.

A better question might be, who are we planning to rush?

Ronnie1 said:

A better question might be, who are we planning to rush?

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Part of the reason I'm inclined to settle north is because war with our fellow Ottomans down south seems inevitable anyway, given the -20 relations. Declaring on the Ottomans will have practically no diplo implications, while declaring on Russians might leave us without future trading partners. So hence I'd try to peacefully push north (or at least create the land valve towards the NE) and by force southwards. If Sulei settles next to the fort (doubt much he'll settle on it), our archer in the fort would totally choke his city until we'd capture it.

Apologies for not being more active but RL has given me a real kick up the @@@@. I'm not going to be around for another couple of weeks or so. Should be ok after that though

I hope your atatatat is allright, Sleepless.

So, if I'm reading opinions right regarding the TPPP I posted it seems:
- favour hammers over commerce
- stay put with archer
- current warrior "dance" with bear, avoid a fight, but stay in general area
- new warrior explore south (?)
- scout, explore east, try to be careful, avoid bear

City and worker specifics seem clear for the next 11/12 turns or so. Tech path likewise. Unless objections I may proceed with the above amendments in about 29 hours (though itchy to do so in about 5 ).

nocho said:

I hope your atatatat is allright, Sleepless.

So, if I'm reading opinions right regarding the TPPP I posted it seems:
- favour hammers over commerce
- stay put with archer
- current warrior "dance" with bear, avoid a fight, but stay in general area
- new warrior explore south (?)
- scout, explore east, try to be careful, avoid bear

City and worker specifics seem clear for the next 11/12 turns or so. Tech path likewise. Unless objections I may proceed with the above amendments in about 29 hours (though itchy to do so in about 5 ).

Click to expand...

I'm happy for you to proceed.

Scout: yes, do be careful

New Warrior: south sounds as good as north I suppose. Sort of hedging our bets regarding where we settle.

Scout I would only move 1 tile per turn. I would be happy if we just kept him alive at home as an early medic for our early wars.

Carry on.

Couldn't hold the itch so went ahead, but not really that much to discuss anyway.





We met quite a few new people, 2 Frenchies and 2 Romans. And it seems among them we have quite some acquaintances that don't like the sight of each other. I guess you can spot the pattern.


The scout uncovered quite a bit of the east, including a barb city that's not holy, but Christian anyway. Note the defenders.


The new warrior also did a fair bit of scouting, here's an overview from east and south.


Our northern warrior survived a wolf attack and has a promo available. Maybe woody is an option.

Worker finished the sheep pasture and the mine and can move this turn, that's why I stopped. Settler due next turn. We'll have to decide where to go.

Note Sulei settled a second city, seemingly not in our direction. I'd still favour us going NE, it'll secure another killer city near those pigs and the land beyond ain't half bad either (pig/deer/gem/gold/doublestone on a riverside PH for instance ).

I would be available for some more turns later this week if we decide on where to settle and play on until BW or semething, but can hand over too, evidently.

EDIT: Sorry for the big screenshots, but if I let photobucket crop them to 1024*768 they get surprisingly blurred.

I did not expect to see that many of our AI accessible, only 2 remaining unknown.

2 Russian
2 Roman
2 French
2 Ottoman

All predisposed to hate the other. All religions given to the barbs. We need a pile of temples.

I don't feel boxed in any longer!

I have the save, not sure where to go from here. It looks a lot different!

Nice work, nocho! Lots of exploration info...very interesting.

OK, so we are dealing with pairs of civs, with the alternate leaders hating one another. We are missing one more pair, which if we could find both would reveal the hidden objective. I am guessing those two will be a bit harder to find, but I have already been surprised several times in this game so who knows?

With the pairs hating one another, we are going to have to be careful about choosing any allies. Getting close to anyone will automatically make us enemies. It does not look like there are any pre-set relations among different civs, so we can make some friends but it will be tricky.

Barb cities strongly defended...I think we can probably assume that will be true for all of them. Especially the holy cities. None of the AIs have a state religion as of T30 at least, so I think we can assume religion will be slow to spread from the barb holy cities. And capture will not happen any time soon against LBs. Should be interesting to see what this does to AI behavior, they usually spend a great deal of research and hammers on religious stuff.

We do have some nice land available. Maybe grow to size 3 while building an additional warrior (4 turns, I think?), then another settler? We could grab a northern site and the wheat/horses southern site, unless an AI beats us to them. And with Suleiman having planted a second city, maybe going north then south would get us both sites?

The deer south of Silver Lining also now looks pretty good. Two deer, sheep, silver -- needs a border pop, plus Hunting tech, but is close enough that we can probably count on grabbing that site a bit later. Lots of resources to the northeast, but that would string out our empire quite a bit. Higher maintenance plus military vulnerability. Still, some very tasty resources out that way.

With this new info, do we still want to commit to an early rush? Or would we be better off staying peaceful and planting several cities, maybe while also chasing the Oracle? We are not as badly boxed in as we thought.

Also, future diplomacy thought: our pairs of neighbors are likely to go to war with one another, and then both sides will start making demands that we join in. We need to decide who we want to ally with, and who we will reject, since it is almost certain that it will happen. For example, for Cathy/Peter we know Cathy gives double penalties to rejections. Which would we want to side with, if either?

Good work with all that scouting Nocho; and to not lose any units to barbarians

I also feel like we aren't very boxed in any more. This diplomacy situation is very generous for us. All the AIs have a worst enemy. Forming trading blocs should be easy to do, simply pick one and ignore the other; then pick their friend(s). I feel like learning Alphabet could be very profitable for us. An alternative to teching Alpha ourselves is to go for HBR and then put only a turn or two into Alpha and pick it up in trade. (Similar idea to Aesthetics, except HBR gives other options )

The land all around looks quite luscious. I quite like the look of a city 6S1W of the capital: Sheep+Silver in first ring, 2x deer, loads of forests to chop, loads of hills to mine and the food to work it. It's also only 1 road away from being connected to the network.

We could expand in a general southerly direction with 2 cities (wheat/horse, sheep/silver) and then go for a 3-city HA rush to wipe out Sulei. Meanwhile, 2 silver sources and some clever tech trading should keep the economy afloat long enough to continue the attack on either Catherine or Peter.

A possible plan to discuss:

1. City #2 at wheat/horse.
2. Build 2nd worker soon.
3. Chop/whip 2nd settler.
4. City #3 at sheep/silver.
5. Tech BW > HBR > Hunting > Archery
6. Attack Sulei circa T70 with 8+ HAs.
7. Tech Pottery > Writing. Part tech Alphabet > trade away HBR.
8. Attack Peter after Sulei.

I like most of adrianj's post above. A couple points:

- I would reverse items 2 and 3. We are expansive, so it would be more efficient to chop/whip the worker (getting the 25% bonus to hammers) and build the settler normally.

- I would also move Pottery up in the research queue, probably to right after BW. We are expansive and get cheap granaries, and I think it will pay off quickly to build/whip them to speed the growth (and re-growth after whipping) of our cities. Being able to whip a granary at size 2 in new cities and have all later growth boosted is a big advantage, and will help us produce our future army sooner. The ability to build some cottages will also be useful, although we probably won't do much of that until a bit later.

We have two chops at the capital for the sheep and silver tiles -- that gets us 40 * 1.25 = 50 hammers right there. So we can produce a worker just from those chops plus the food-hammers for the two turns the chops come in. Essentially we get a worker in 2 turns, and can be building something else (probably another settler) the rest of the time. So our capital queue might look something like:

Settler for city #2 (essentially done)
Warrior (to grow to size 3 and add the mined grass hill)
Worker #2 (can't chop or whip yet, but we need another worker to road sheep and silver, etc.)
Settler for city #3
Worker #3 (fit in as sheep and silver chops complete, takes only 2 turns)
Barracks (to grow to size 4 (add second sheep) and size 5 (add silver))
Chariots/HAs/axes/military whatever

What about city 2 at horse/wheat.

Build chariots and get the rest of our workers and cities from Suli?

PPP

City Builds
SL = Settler > Warrior to size 3 > worker
City 2 = Barrack > 1 Chariot when available > Barrack

Found city 2 (Horse Farm)
In the south between the Horse and Wheat.

Worker Actions
W1(name something) = Road S of SL > Farm Wheat > Pasture Horse
W2(name) = road silver and sheep

Unit Actions
Archer = pillage fort before founding the city > Garrison Horse Farm

Scout = Do we still care if he survives? With barb units showing up nowish, it would be a small miracle if he made it back to friendly borders alive. In which case we just keep scouting and consider him expendable.

Warrior(s), N warrior I want to look around the marble coast. South warrior will continue to scout cautiously.

Diplomacy
No actions planned

Civics
No options

Stopping Conditions
10 turns
Suli DOW's or moves a stack at us.

@Ron: I love your work ethic, posting a PPP so fast
Before you proceed, I'd just like to check something.

@nocho: Are you handing off here? Ron looks rearing to go.

nocho said:

I would be available for some more turns later this week if we decide on where to settle and play on until BW or semething, but can hand over too, evidently.

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@Ron: I love your work ethic, posting a PPP so fast
Before you proceed, I'd just like to check something.

@nocho: Are you handing off here? Ron looks rearing to go.

Click to expand...

My apologies if I jumped too quickly. It looked as though each of the first 3 players had played 10 turns (T30 now). Posting a PPP within 24 hours was the standard I was attempting to adhere to.

Ronnie1 said:

What about city 2 at horse/wheat.

Build chariots and get the rest of our workers and cities from Suli?

Click to expand...

An earlier Chariot rush could certainly be an option.
Some reasons why I think horse archer rush is stronger:

1. More powerful = keep the assault going for longer, against multiple opponents.
2. AI develops a little more = larger cities, more improvements, more conquest , possibly wonders.
3. Stronger economy for ourselves, eg, HBR > Alphabet.
   
   Reasons in favour of chariot rush:
4. Prevent AI claiming our land.
5. Prevent AI settling mediocre city sites.
6. AI more poorly defended.
7. Avoid "useless" HBR tech.

On balance, I still think an HA rush is a better choice, mainly because of reason #1. It's all speculation though. At what point would we make a firm decision on this? I suppose after we learn BW > Pottery.

Ronnie1 said:

PPP

City Builds
SL = Settler > Warrior to size 3 > worker
City 2 = Barrack > 1 Chariot when available > Barrack

Click to expand...

Maybe swap the Settler and Warrior/Size3?
I like the City 2 build path.

Found city 2 (Horse Farm)
In the south between the Horse and Wheat.

Click to expand...

I am comfortable supporting horse/wheat city. I reserve the right to change my opinion yet again though

Worker Actions
W1(name something) = Road S of SL > Farm Wheat > Pasture Horse
W2(name) = road silver and sheep

Unit Actions
Archer = pillage fort before founding the city > Garrison Horse Farm

Click to expand...

Worker actions look good.
We get for pillaging fort? I suppose we want it removed because otherwise it would be a spot for AI to stand?

Scout = Do we still care if he survives? With barb units showing up nowish, it would be a small miracle if he made it back to friendly borders alive. In which case we just keep scouting and consider him expendable.

Warrior(s), N warrior I want to look around the marble coast. South warrior will continue to scout cautiously.

Click to expand...

I think try to keep the scout alive. It would be nice if he came home one day, perhaps in the age of Open Borders. For now, I guess keep sending him far away in the hope of meeting more AI.
Does this map have world wrap?

Diplomacy
No actions planned

Civics
No options

Stopping Conditions
10 turns
Suli DOW's or moves a stack at us.

Click to expand...

If Suli goes WHEOOHRN then that is definitely a Stopping Condition.

If AIs (other than Suli) Catherine, Louis(?) or Julius learn writing then OB with them. (See below)
I agree with haphazard that we should try to decide early who our favoured AIs are.

Russian friend
Of Peter and Catherine, I suggest we pick Catherine. Peter has slightly closer cities that we might like to capture quite soon. +1 hidden base attitude. NoTechTradeThreshold is the same as Peter, though slightly higher TechTradeKnownPercent. She is known as a liability in that she can be bribed into war with Friendlies, however, you need to get her Friendly yourself to do it.

Catherine has a low BasePeaceWeight (2). She is more likely to be friends with Louis (1 is close to 2) than Napoleon (0), Julius (4) than Augustus (8).

Roman friend
Augustus has an outlier basePeaceWeight of (8). He will find it hard to make friends with the others we have met, hence no one will likely care if we declare war on him. I suggest we pick Julius as our Roman friend.

French friend
For the French speaker it doesn't seem so obvious.
Louis has favourite civic HRule, compared to Napoleon's more difficult Representation. Catherine and Louis will likely be good friends (similar peace weight, same fav civics). Louis has a lower TechTradeKnownPercent than Napoleon, though a lower NoTechTradeThreshold. Perhaps what is more important is befriending the one who will less like the others, so we don't get negative modifiers for declaring war. I don't know, toss a coin?

Logic to an AI DOW
I've been checking the thread by DanF linked to in my signature. If the AIs all hate somebody else, what are the chances that they start a war against us?

There's nothing we can do about the AI considering a war - it's random. There are two things we can do to prevent us from being a valid victim: 1) increase our power. 2) reduce shared land borders.
Increasing our power is not a desirable route to take until we are actually amassing our army, at which point we don't really care if someone declares war on us. Reducing shared land tiles is a possibility. Ie, if we settle a city N adjacent to Peter, that will increase the odds that he considers declaring war on us.
The same victim selection applies between AI, eg, Peter considering a war vs Catherine. In that case, their bigger deterrent will likely be power, since they're probably on equal footing. For a Total War it doesn't really matter, since they would need opponent to be >1.5*Power, ie, even with a 66% power deficit they'll still have a go (modified further by AI XML, for Peter is 1.8 for Total War, for Catherine it is 1.35.
Limited Wars are more likely, but power is a better deterrent. Peter is happy with opponent having 1.2*Power, Catherine 1.1*Power.
Summary: Power is unlikely to stop Peter or Catherine declaring war on eachother if they are evenly matched. Assuming they share land tiles, they will consider war against eachother.

Next step is to select from the set of valid victims who is the actual victim. In this case, being Furious with someone makes them 4* more likely to be selected. If our capital cities are equally distant (ie, Peter to Us compared to Peter to Catherine) and we share a similar number of land borders, then the AI they are furious with will always get picked ahead of us.

TL;DR: I don't think we need to worry about war with either Peter or Catherine. (Famous last words )

Assuming nocho intended to hand off, then I like the PPP from Ronnie1. I also like the info from adrianj on AI DOW logic and picking friends in the other civ pairs.

Catherine and Julius make sense as potential friends and allies. They are both rather demanding, though -- are we prepared to give in on demands for techs, etc? For the French, Napoleon is more of a warmonger while Louis loves wonders. Louis might make a better target, as his cities are likely to have some nice things in them.

On HBR, I do not consider it a "useless" tech at all. HAs are strong early, and we need the tech later for war elephants. I think we will get plenty of use from HBR.

Chariot rush...my main objection to a chariot rush is how expensive it is. Chariots do not get good odds against fortified archers in cities with culture defenses. The AIs are not going to have holy city culture, but just palace culture will give them a border pop or two by the time we are ready to attack. Taking cities will cost multiple chariots each. Horse archers are stronger, and although they are more expensive I think more of them will survive for overall better hammer payoff.

On the scout it would be nice if he survives, due to the usefulness of that medic promotion. I agree with adrianj that if we can keep him alive until open borders become available, then we should bring him back. But if he dies...well, we have already gotten pretty good value from him. I say keep exploring and hope for the best. Definitely stop him to heal if he gets hurt, since he will heal very rapidly.

adrianj said:

@Ron: I love your work ethic, posting a PPP so fast

Before you proceed, I'd just like to check something.



@nocho: Are you handing off here? Ron looks rearing to go.

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Thanks for your consideration, aj. I was asking whether to hand over, but I guess I got the answer spelled out already.

If you care to continue nocho, please feel free.

Consider PPP as a proposed path.

Maybe swap the Settler and Warrior/Size3?

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That is the current settler, 1 turn remaining. Then warrior > worker > grow to size 4, 2 pop whip settler > overflow worker #3.....or something along those lines after this turnset.

If Suli goes WHEOOHRN then that is definitely a Stopping Condition.

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If he goes WHEOOHRN in the next 10 turns, what would we do differently?

We are already planning another warrior and a chariot as soon as available.