A Mafia Game taking place in the East [Game Thread - Concluded]

Snerk said:

Yes FOS on Chox for the flip-flop. However, we'll learn more from lynching Kennigit. If Kennigit turns up scum, Chox is most likely scum too due to the suspicious vote switch. If Kennigit turns up innocent, I'd say Chox is looking very pro-town as why would a mafioso ruin a d1 townie lynch?

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I think this argument also works in reverse. choxorn is a fine lynch

spaceman98 said:

I think this argument also works in reverse. choxorn is a fine lynch

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No it doesn't. If choxorn is town, it reveals absolutely nothing about Kennigit. If you're going to use that (flawed) argument, then lynching Kennigit is strictly better than lynching choxorn.

I don't see how the presence of cultists and serial killers alters the calculus for Kennigit and Choxorn. They either were teammates (in which case choxorn's voting patterns make sense as an attempt to save a teammate) OR they weren't teammates (in which case choxorn's voting patterns make little sense, though that's not to say that people always do things which make sense).

Because you're assuming that if one is mafia, then the other must not only be mafia, but be on the same mafia team, ignoring that they could theoretically be on different mafia teams.

In any case, if they ARE scum teammates, it's uncharacteristic for choxorn to act in such a way. He is a notoriously prolific busser. The whole case relies on choxorn being dumb/sloppy.

It's the only case we have, but that doesn't make it GOOD. Plus I absolutely hate planning lynches in advance.

I'll go with Choxorn, though as Zack has pointed out no result is guarantee of anything.

remake for me again today.

Murska said:

Hmm. I'm all for pushing Choxorn or Kennigit, but both at once runs the risk of achieving little.

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Nah, we have plurality voting on every day but D1. Plus if they're near-tied or whatever at the end of the Day and someone breaks that tie, then that's information. vote: Choxy

The ball is in your court, someone else.

Zack said:

Murska, get a damn avatar. What are we, savages?

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Apparently I need to be an established member of the community to have a custom avatar.

Double A said:

Nah, we have plurality voting on every day but D1. Plus if they're near-tied or whatever at the end of the Day and someone breaks that tie, then that's information. vote: Choxy

The ball is in your court, someone else.

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Yes, we want several targets, but I prefer to have somewhat unconnected targets, to avoid giving the wolves easy ways to nudge things and cause mislynches without appearing suspicious. And, of course, at the end we want to coalesce on a single target to prevent any one vote from deciding things. A vote that decides a lynch on a villager could be a wolf or a villager, and so contains little information, and in this game a vote that kills a wolf isn't a strong indicator either because there might be several teams of bad guys. It's not information that'd be worth a mislynch, at any rate.

I expect Kennigit to be more likely to be a bad guy than choxorn for the reasons Zack mentioned - Wolves are often overly cautious about doing things that might get them caught. But then, both might be good. Still, we need lynches and Kennigit gives more information than most.

To take two steps, we must first take one.

A choxorn lynch tells us a small amount about Kennigit and not a whole lot else. A Kennigit lynch tells us a small amount about choxorn, and a lot about Day 1. We should lynch Kennigit today and go from there.

JohannaK said:

I'll go with Choxorn, though as Zack has pointed out no result is guarantee of anything.

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You don't think lynching me will tell you anything... so you're voting to lynch me?

Your logic is impeccable.

Seriously, why is it so bad that I didn't want to lynch Kennigit? I understand the logic behind wanting to lynch someone, I just didn't understand the logic behind wanting to lynch him.

And, as Zack has already mentioned, this isn't the way I'd act as a mafia, because I'd know better than to do something that looks that scummy. If he was my partner, I'd happily bus him rather than make both of us look bad by unvoting him, and if he wasn't, I'd have no reason to care if he got lynched and no reason to draw attention to myself like that.

I'm not getting a scum vibe from him right now, either, mostly because of that mistake he made about thinking the mafia didn't kill anybody. He'd know the mafia killed someone if he was one. Sure, he could just pretend to make a mistake, but it would be silly to call attention to himself like that when he's already under a spotlight. And also, sure, he could be a member of one of the mafia teams who failed to notice the other kill, but he did notice SamSniped's death as he mentioned in the thread. But if he's on Sam's team, he would obviously notice both kills- the one his team did and the one that killed one of his teammates. He could be on the other team and not notice that Sam's team killed SouthernKing, I suppose, but I still don't think this is the sort of thing he'd do if he was mafia.

Good point on Kennigit. Who do you propose we lynch?

nah, there's no reason to metagame from me posting right when I wake up (after going to bed the previous night thinking, "hmm one scum dead. neat"). Carelessness isn't a trait of anything.

BUT, a lynch on me is not really any more information than a lynch on anyone else. It seems the lot of you are doing it for a IF kennigit scum, THEN choxorn scum, but that's hardly any more information than say, the ~4 people or so that switched from RNG votes onto Kennigit to prevent a BSmith runaway. While I voted remake20 earlier, he was the only one initially who switched directly from bsmith onto me (internet flea later did), most of the others just coagulated onto me. It's equivalent logic that any one of them could be "Saving" bsmith, just as choxorn did do a "save" onto me (as well as zack, being neutral on both bsmith and kennigit).

The only other info snug in there is samsniped doing a random FoS on murka in the middle of the bsmith-kennigit transition. He didn't seem to really care.

That, of course, is precisely why the multi-candidate vote was put forth. To mine that kind of data for a future time. My only wish is that the same is done today, not just a "well we agreed on Kennigit yesterday right guys" that Snerk or internet flea started out today with.

though the samsniped thing was obviously a joke, not a true fos*

bleh I should be posting smarter about context of stuff:

legato endless, tft, snerk were the RNG -> kennigit switches*

Kennigit said:

nah, there's no reason to metagame from me posting right when I wake up (after going to bed the previous night thinking, "hmm one scum dead. neat"). Carelessness isn't a trait of anything.

BUT, a lynch on me is not really any more information than a lynch on anyone else. It seems the lot of you are doing it for a IF kennigit scum, THEN choxorn scum, but that's hardly any more information than say, the ~4 people or so that switched from RNG votes onto Kennigit to prevent a BSmith runaway. While I voted remake20 earlier, he was the only one initially who switched directly from bsmith onto me (internet flea later did), most of the others just coagulated onto me. It's equivalent logic that any one of them could be "Saving" bsmith, just as choxorn did do a "save" onto me (as well as zack, being neutral on both bsmith and kennigit).

The only other info snug in there is samsniped doing a random FoS on murka in the middle of the bsmith-kennigit transition. He didn't seem to really care.

That, of course, is precisely why the multi-candidate vote was put forth. To mine that kind of data for a future time. My only wish is that the same is done today, not just a "well we agreed on Kennigit yesterday right guys" that Snerk or internet flea started out today with.

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I agree that something about Snerk's comment rubs me the wrong way, since our "agreement" to lynch you wasn't exactly a solid compact. Nonetheless, for lack of any better candidates, I will stay on choxorn for now.

Its possible that BSmith got "saved", though a lot of the Kennigit wagon were people who reasoned that "we all want to lynch SOMEONE, and we're already voting for BSmith, so lets change to Kennigit" (me and edse IIRC).

Speaking of this, where is BSmith? He hasn't posted anything today at all. IIRC he often lurks as scum. You know what? unvote: vote: BSmith

Those are all pretty good points- people say we agreed to lynch Kennigit when we clearly didn't, or even really agree that lynching anyone day one was a good idea- and until the end, BSmith was at least as much in danger as Kennigit was. The people late on the Kennigit wagon are at least as scummy for trying to shift the lynch off BSmith as I am for unvoting Kennigit at the end.

We could probably learn at least something by lynching either one of them I suppose, but probably more by lynching BSmith, and he's much more likely to be mafia anyway.

Vote: BSmith1068

bsmith voted today post 148 (for remake again)

Have a lot to read but I think is relevant to mention a samurai visited me at night, he looked like was attacking... but not me? A block or a protection I don't know what to make of it.