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What is the "Real Problem" with the US Economy?

Lexicus

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I'm starting this thread as a 'colony' from a discussion in the Republican primary thread. It's an ongoing discussion about what's going on in the US economy and how to fix it.

Sommerswerd said:
I'm not missing the point of leverage, its just another irrelevant arbitrary distinction you're inserting into the issue. Your "leverage" vis-à-vis your employer, or potential employer, comes from your relative ability/qualification/certification to do the job they want to hire somebody to do... In other words, your "skills" or "quwan." I used the word "quwan" in attempt to get us past arguing about the definitions of words. The heart of the matter is if you have quwan employers want, they will pay you for it. If you don't have the quwan then you're stuck in low wage jobs. People don't have the quwan by-and-large, nowadays, so we have to pretend they do and pay them as if they did to keep wages from stagnating... which in turn keeps demand up.

[...]


The reason the wealthy have all the money is because nobody has enough quwan to demand a higher share of their profits. Now that's a complex issue that I'd like to discuss in more detail if you'd like.

I understood your argument the first time.

You are simply restating the theory of skill-biased technological change that was popular in the late 1990s to explain why some people saw their incomes stagnate even as productivity skyrocketed. This theory is in turn based on something called the 'marginal productivity theory of labor value,' which is less a theory and more an assumption that labor is paid an amount equal to what it adds to the productive process.

Whether you understand it or not that is the theoretical basis of what you are arguing. You are wrong; marginal productivity theory not only has never been empirically confirmed despite more than a hundred years' worth of attempts, it has been shown not to apply when the conventional assumptions of classical economics (rational actors with all relevant information, perfectly competitive markets) don't hold (which they obviously don't).

The distinction between skills or 'quwan' as you're now calling it (to avoid a semantic argument which never actually happened) and power is not irrelevant or arbitrary. As I implied, skills are only one part of an employee's power relative to his employer but many other things can affect that power balance as well that have nothing to do with skills - for example the general scarcity or abundance of labor in the economy, whether or not there is an active union in the workplace, etc.

Anyway, the 'skill-biased technological change' theory is long discredited, and for good reason. You should do some research on that yourself and see if it resembles what you're trying to argue.

Sommerswerd said:
And yes I get the difference between demand as used in basic econ, versus the dictionary definition.

You obviously do not, or you would not have said "there is plenty of demand, just not enough money." To anyone who understands the economics meaning of demand that statement makes no sense.

Sommerswerd said:
I have no idea WTF "metaphysical demand" is, so ill just assume that was an attempt at humor or condescension and ignore that

Metaphysical demand --> people don't want enough things
Economic demand --> people lack the money to buy the things they want

I came up with the phrase myself to apply to your, ah, idiosyncratic use of the term.

Sommerswerd said:
The point is that paying people more creates more economic activity, which is what we need. But it is artificial, in that it does not address the real problem, which is the lack of "quwan".

Again, the problem is not a lack of skills. There is nothing 'artificial' about increasing effective demand as a way of increasing economic activity. Please read your Keynes, or your Kalecki if you prefer.

Sommerswerd said:
As an aside... I love arguing about definitions, and splitting hairs over minutia... love it... ask anybody. But what usually happens, is when I get going, the other person begins whining that I'm "quibbling over sematics" or similar. So I've learned to try my best to lay off ... But if you want semantics to be part of our discussion just let me know and I'll "let my guy out."

We have that in common. However my "quibbles" had nothing to do with semantics.
 
Okay, we got a new post so perhaps more clarity.

Sommerswerd said:
#2 is closer to what I am talking about, but I don't want to get too hung up on the word "skills" because I've already seen that leads us off on a tangent, and it seems like its doing the same with you. The real point is that the jobs that are available to be filled don't have enough people able to fill them, and the jobs that people can fill... anyone, including a robot can do.

There are many more unemployed people than job openings in the economy right now. This is the precise opposite of the problem.

Sommerswerd said:
You are right that in a consumption style economy, which is what we seem to have, the only thing that really creates jobs is when a company doesn't have enough people to sell all the goods and services it could sell if it had more people working... they hire more people, so they can make more money.

Business investment is the key determinant of employment, and business investment responds to effective demand.
 
The problem is that people think Trickle-Down still works when it obviously doesn't. I don't really believe in supply-side economics. Economy is driven by demand and tax cuts on the rich don't increase demand, tax cuts on the middle and lower classes do.
 
Archbob said:
The problem is that people think Trickle-Down still works when it obviously doesn't. I don't really believe in supply-side economics. Economy is driven by demand and tax cuts on the rich don't increase demand, tax cuts on the middle and lower classes do.

Good, well, you get it. This is a fundamentally demand-driven economy. Right now we are in a general crisis of overproduction; supply is not the issue.
 
Generally speaking, anything that would boost the incomes of people with higher propensity to spend - the bottom 2/3 or so - will be effective at stimulating a consumption-based economy. It's politically difficult right now, but we need to strengthen the redistributionary mechanisms in order to get the money to the people who will spend it. Trickle-up economics actually works, unlike the trickle-down variety.

My suggestion is turning the standard deduction into a refundable tax credit and using that as a minimum income. That way it looks like a "tax cut" for most people while actually being a robust safety net. Of course the funding for that will require higher marginal rates on the rich, which is impossible with the GOP in its current form. Hopefully Trump manages to damage the Republican Party badly enough that the Dems regain their majorities, and Hillary proves better than Obama at using those majorities to her advantage.
 
Lexicus is basically right on the wages problem. Wages are supply and demand. When the labor being supplied is higher than the demand for work, wages are suppressed. There are many factors which go into the suppression of wages in the US. Skill levels really aren't that significant a part of them.
 
In Sommer's defense - "metaphysical demand" is kinda sorta how food demand works(since it's curves are semi-unique), to an extent. He may argue with me enough that I warp him.
 
Generally speaking, anything that would boost the incomes of people with higher propensity to spend - the bottom 2/3 or so - will be effective at stimulating a consumption-based economy. It's politically difficult right now, but we need to strengthen the redistributionary mechanisms in order to get the money to the people who will spend it. Trickle-up economics actually works, unlike the trickle-down variety.

My suggestion is turning the standard deduction into a refundable tax credit and using that as a minimum income. That way it looks like a "tax cut" for most people while actually being a robust safety net. Of course the funding for that will require higher marginal rates on the rich, which is impossible with the GOP in its current form. Hopefully Trump manages to damage the Republican Party badly enough that the Dems regain their majorities, and Hillary proves better than Obama at using those majorities to her advantage.


I actually like your plan. I think the SS tax should be exempt from the first $20,000 of income, again by increasing the upper limit for SS tax.
 
Farm Boy said:
In Sommer's defense - "metaphysical demand" is kinda sorta how food demand works(since it's curves are semi-unique), to an extent. He may argue with me enough that I warp him.

Humans need food, no doubt about it.

If you want to talk about how economic demand is conditioned by the social system, and has nothing to do with human wants I am very receptive to that.

I don't set much store by demand and supply curves as analytic tools.

I may be wrong about what Sommerswerd is arguing, but it seems to me he is essentially saying that there is a straightforward relationship between 'quwan' and income, which holds independently of social factors like the unemployment rate or the degree to which the working class is organized.
I think what he means by 'quwan' is possible "creation of real value" but I could be wrong about all of this, I guess. That's the trouble with idiosyncratic phrasing :D
 
Archbob said:
I actually like your plan. I think the SS tax should be exempt from the first $20,000 of income, again by increasing the upper limit for SS tax.

I'm for abolishing the payroll tax completely.
 
There are many more unemployed people than job openings in the economy right now. This is the precise opposite of the problem.

In anecdote and on surveys, employers have been reporting the opposite - that they have openings but no qualified workers to fill them. Other numbers tend to contradict this claim, but it's out there. It's probably safe to say this is an industry-specific problem, but how many industries is probably impossible to know.

There is a big problem with using tax credits as basic income - many people do not claim it. This could be a straightforward fix of giving it to people automatically if they qualify it, whether they claim it or not. But paying basic income in a lump sum is probably not a great solution anyways.
 
In anecdote and on surveys, employers have been reporting the opposite - that they have openings but no qualified workers to fill them. Other numbers tend to contradict this claim, but it's out there. It's probably safe to say this is an industry-specific problem, but how many industries is probably impossible to know.

There is a big problem with using tax credits as basic income - many people do not claim it. This could be a straightforward fix of giving it to people automatically if they qualify it, whether they claim it or not. But paying basic income in a lump sum is probably not a great solution anyways.


There's always some friction between specific jobs available and specific people prepared to take them. This problem is compounded because weak job markets as a whole have resulted in employers no longer training the employees that they need.
 
metalhead said:
In anecdote and on surveys, employers have been reporting the opposite - that they have openings but no qualified workers to fill them. Other numbers tend to contradict this claim, but it's out there. It's probably safe to say this is an industry-specific problem, but how many industries is probably impossible to know.

The job seekers ratio is about 1.4. The ratio of job openings to total unemployed is higher.
 
Well, I disagree that the national debt or the deficit are too high right now. In fact my position is that they are too low.

Indeed, debt hysteria has long been a form of class warfare the rich wage against the poor.
 
Why have they gave Obama a free pass on the debt? Remember the old 2008 scandal and headlines as Bush broke the NYC clock sending the debt from 9 Trillion to 10 Trillion, but today its now 19 and going in the direction of 20 Trillion, yes thats TRILLIONS so why have they not called Obama out on this?
http://mortgagegrapevine.com/thread/?thread=541512
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...National-Debt-clock-New-York-runs-digits.html
http://defendingthetruth.com/debt/9124-bush-broke-national-debt-clock.html

Sadly Obama's over spending and social debts are even worse
 
Why have they gave Obama a free pass on the debt? Remember the old 2008 scandal and headlines as Bush broke the NYC clock sending the debt from 9 Trillion to 10 Trillion, but today its now 19 and going in the direction of 20 Trillion, yes thats TRILLIONS so why have they not called Obama out on this?
http://mortgagegrapevine.com/thread/?thread=541512
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...National-Debt-clock-New-York-runs-digits.html
http://defendingthetruth.com/debt/9124-bush-broke-national-debt-clock.html

Sadly Obama's over spending and social debts are even worse

One can argue about the efficacy of Obama's spending programs (I would be inclined to say that at 2% growth nowadays they were not effective), but having debt as a nation is different from having debt as an individual. So long as your economy's long-run growth rate plus long run inflation is higher than your government's deficit to GDP ratio you will be fine. And the US actually spends a smaller portion of the budget nowadays on debt service because interest rates are so low.
 
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