No need to panic..we can beat Bismark..here is why..maybe

First of this is using Robi D is Guide to the demographics screen.

IF you look at the power graph you will see that Bismark is above us. ( No shock) Now look at the demographic table. We have a soldiers number of 217000. The best in the world not just on our little island is 365000. That give us a differnce of 148000. Big number but its not that big when you consider this.

Bismark has the Chichen Itza which is worth 8000 soldiers which drops that number down to 140000. every city that we can see has walls...walls are worth 2000. Assuming the trend he will have the in each city...12cities =24000. That drops it down to 116000. Bismark has almost double our population...we have a population of 71 which translate into 35000 which leaves 81000.

Now when you consider a sword is worth 2000 and a horse archer is worth 3000, longbows 4000...we can quickly see that while he is ahead its not that much. He has 12 cities to protect..we are attacking one at a time.


So I think at the present power we can take Bismark. He has 12 cities to protect..we are attacking one at a time. However he can out produce us, so fast moving pillagers will be needed or a run around the lake with some units prior to the war will open 2 fronts and split the forces. On top of this...we do not know if Bismark has the highest soldier numbers in the world. He could only be a little above us. We can tell if we have a chance the turn after you hit a major city..the graph will plummet.


( it should be noted that I am ONLY comparing what Bismark has vs what we dont have..walls and wonders and halfing his population since we have half his size)

There maybe is the glimer of hope we were looking for

pictures:



link to Robi D's article:
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=163098

(Try playing head to head with him. I think he knows what you have before you do..."In head to head...its like having spy in their civ." If I beat him its because I have Rome. Thanks to the RNG )

I also think we need to take (or destroy) Berlin first. Preventing them from using the Chicken Itza instantly makes all of their other cities 25% easier to attack.

Rigth..and since I see you linked it to the poll...peace first then attack is the better idea. We need to get organized for the war.

Nice 1 prez. So you think some chariots thru russia?

horse archers or something mounted

Nice to see the hours compiling the demographic numbers are being put to good use robboo. If anything you are being conservative as you didn't take into account barracks (4000 soliders each) and forges (2000 soliders each). You might even been looking at a number close to 60000 which would translate into about 20 units more give or take a few. 20 may sound like a fair bit but as you say he has more territory to cover than you. I doubt you will get much of a peace deal from bismark until you do some damage because the AI seem to take the soldier numbers at face value.

Well, then if this is the case, we need to take Berlin. Should I invalidate the current peace poll, wait for a few more responses here, and make a new poll, with link to this discussion?

nope we need a cease fire/peace treaty to run troops around the Lake and re-organize and rebuild our cottages. Leave it be. Philosophy may keep Bismark off our backs for a while.

ice2k4 said:

Well, then if this is the case, we need to take Berlin. Should I invalidate the current peace poll, wait for a few more responses here, and make a new poll, with link to this discussion?

Click to expand...

The AI isn't 100% predictable so you can try to get a ceasefire/peace with him, but on the balance of things, Bismark is on the aggressive side and with a decent solider advantage he is more likely to continue the war then accept peace.

I thought someone checked if he would accept already.

Edit: Woot 1000th post.

yep..peace for philosophy...

That's a very interesting analysis.

Bismarck was prepared to accept peace - he wanted Philosophy for it. It will be worth seeing if we will accept nothing for it (or will that jeopardy our chances of getting peace for phil?)

However, how many troops do folks think we'll need to take Berlin? I haven't taken a close look, but I think it will be a lot more than we have now. With the troops in/near Berlin, Bismarck has: 6 horse archers, 1 crossbow, 3 longbows and 2 swords.

I'm a bit surprised he doesn't already have maces, given how long he has had longbows, but I think we have to assume he is likely to have them before us. He also doesn't appear to have bothered building cats so far.

My previous tactics for attacking Berlin were to build a couple of attacking forces (in about 4 or 5 turns) and then move on Berlin. However, by the time we were ready we were being decimated. One reason was that we didn't have anywhere near enough spears to counter the horses, but it also shows that we need to be very quick.

If we go for peace with the intention of ending it with an attack on Berlin, we must be ready to go. To be ready to go will I think take more than 10 turns. We maybe have: 3 x cats, horse arch x 2 (or 3), spear x 2 and a crossbow to spare for an attack. I think we'll need a lot more.

Ooops: I think we have another cat and another archer to add to our list of troops in position to attack.

However, it doesn't change my opinion that I don't think we'll take Berlin with the current relative strengths. If we were to lose troops at the same rate we did last TC, then we would lose all the attackers I've mentioned in defeating the 8 troops Bismarck has out side Berlin and not even touch those in the city.

If we don't get peace, I think we'll lose 2 of our cats within a turn or 2.

I think that we need to discuss this a little more and delay the next turnchat. Even if we go for peace, we need to decide what we will do eventually. If we want permanent peace, we will need spears, crossbows and longbows for defence. If we want to attack Berlin after 15 to 20 turns of peace, we need to build spears, cats, horses and swords. This decision is very important and possibly very risky. I think we should have a citizens poll on it.

We polled for peace....want to accept that adn play 10 turns. build troops and repair stuff. we can be discusing the potential for war after that time. Heck its the 23 rd of july...we will be voting soon and the crazy guy who proposed this may not be relected.( or he may run elsewhere )

Well, I think that even if we took Berlin after a 10 turn peace treaty. We would still have to defend Berlin for a couple of turns, before he would even talk to us. And thats still with the slight chance that taking Berlin will want to make him go for peace. We would have nothing to gift for peace, so if were willing to take Berlin, we have to be ready to hold off Bismark 10 or so turns after the capture.

We're researching Feudalism right now, so I guess we can make Knights in a relatively short time (if we go for guilds). That will help!

Ok we have a plan lets start working on it.

1. Get peace and repair. Fix up the areas pillaged and get the road program cranking.
2. Crank our units..offensive units. Have a rotation...xx units then an infrastructure in a city if neeeded. We cant go exclusive one direction. We want to get couthouses up soon. Maybe even start on forbidden place wehn we are able.
3. Decide if we want to attack Germany..that will likley be next term.