"If the Civil War started in 1851, and the North didn't benefit from an additional decade of industrialization, could the South have won?"
this is asked on the download page, If the North wasnt Industrialised the Civil War would not have happened, but more to the point if America wasnt united it couldn't have happened.
The Key motive for the call for independence on behalf of the southern states were the laws put in place by the north which actively prevent southern industrialisation.
Your point is generally correct, but I think the laws the South had problems with weren't laws preventing industrialization; because they had no desire to do so. It was the tarriffs and trade restrictions that were placed to strangle the shipping and commercial developement of the South.
Since before the Revolutionary War, Boston and New York were the major and virtually only shipping points in and out of the US. Boston actually only joined in on fighting for Liberty when the British government strangled them to prevent them from becoming to successful. How ironic that they then tried to maintain their monoploy on trade over the South with restrictive laws.
The secession of the southern states was over sovereignty, "states rights", and self determination. They didn't like the Northerners telling them what to do and restriciting their trade. Slavery was just the dividing factor upon which the two sides lined up politically (like Repubs or Dems). Slave states had an agrarian economy and non slave states didn't (they were industrialized). Ending slavery would have ruined the southern economies ,THEORETICALLY. I should add I think slavery was an awful institituion lest you think I'm a racist.
Almost all of the Confederate soldiers who fought said they were fighting for their home and their state. States meant alot more back then since the Federal govt' was new and generally weak. Keep in mind also that only a small minority of Southerners actually owned slaves, few of whom actually fought in the war.
Anyway, for the scenario, the southern states would have maintained an semi fuedal system with large aristocratic landowners ruling, poor whites next, and slaves last. They would have been forced to rely upon cotton and tobacco trade with Europe, especially England, to survive economically. But the loss of nutrients in the soils due to over farming would have brought them to ruin in time unless they changed methods. The use of the cotton gin would also have eliminated much of the need for slaves over time.