None of that is a logical deduction. It's just an inference to the best explanation, and one which is highly uncertain, I'd say. If different people give different answers to a question, it's true that we'd have to conclude that at least most of them don't know the answer, but I don't see that it would be reasonable to suppose that they are all ignorant for the same reason. And it wouldn't follow that all of the answers are equally probable (or improbable). If forty-nine children give different figures as answers to the difficult sum, and one child says "I don't know what the answer is", is his reply just as likely to be incorrect as that of the others? We can't conclude that a question is inherently unanswerable just because no-one has given a correct answer to it. And we certainly can't conclude that it's inherently unanswerable just because many different answers have been given to it, and we're not sure which, if any, is correct.
I think we need to be very careful about how we reason in this sort of thing. It's not possible to have the kind of certainty associated with logical deductions, as you imply.
Thanks Plotinus, as always a very interesting post.
I hesitate to continue an argument with you, but I am not convinced by your contention on this point.
There are two different logical/philosophical challenges here:
- first, if there are a large variety of inconsistent answers offered to a question, does that allow us to conclude that the answer is unknowable?
If I read you right above, you don't think any such conclusion can be drawn. I agree completely with this point of view - 50 inconsistent and mutually exclusive answers do not prove that any specific answer is wrong, or that no answer exists.
However this was not the point I was making, which is this:
- second, if there are a large number of inconsistent answers to a question, can we conclude anything about the ability of the individuals within the group to answer the question, or the nature of the question being asked?
To this you, implicitly at least appear to be saying 'No, no conclusion can be drawn'.
I disagree; at a minimum we can conclude that 49 out of 50 answers have beeen made incorrectly, implying that the responders either failed to understand the question or reached an inaccurate conclusion. And we can conclude this - crucially - without knowing the answer, or even if there is one.
From this we can go on to consider the motivation of those offering an answer - if so many people offer incorrect answers, what is their motivation for doing so? Why is it important for this group to offer an answer, even if it is likely to be wrong, rather than admitting ignorance? Do they genuinely believe they have an answer, or is there a reward to pretending to a certainty that they do not actually have?
While we may not be able to answer these questions without significant research, and may never answer them satisfactorily or completely, there is no doubt that there is some motivation that impels people to answer the question when they are clearly wrong. We know this to be true because at least 49 out of 50 respondents are actually incorrect in their answer, even if we do not know which the right answer is, or even if there is an answer.
Failing to recognise these questions as valid restricts us from a key line of research and an equally important moral question:
1) Why to people feel impelled to religious belief? This is a vital area of research which may address problems asssociated with all forms of tribalism - political, ethnic and religious - that afflict the world.
2) Is it moral to allow the indoctrinationation of children in their parents beliefs? This is almost the last taboo - we find it hard to prevent parents doing things to their children on the grounds of religion which we would stop in an instant were there any other motivating force: genital mutilation, withholding medical treatment, indoctrination to violence or hate are all examples of such behaviour.
So my conclusion is that we must confront the reality that each individual set of religious beliefs is not an equally valid construct with a 50/50 chance of being right, but a small sub-set of the possible solution set to a question to which we have no demonstrable answer.
Only by doing so can we legitimise asking these other, very important questions.
All the best
BFR