SGOTM 11 - One Short Straw

Doesn't matter. With the same religion we will easily get Zara's voted regardless.
It's also Justinian, IIRC. Ok, I don't care about it, just wanted to clarify.

@Silu,
No, I don't think we're counting on a Pac-Theo switch. We might wanna do that post-Radio, I think, depending on the situation. Realistically, we're probably looking at no more than +2 bonus for 10t, as 20t seems too long given our schedule.
 
PRE-PLAY PLAN

  • Complete GM trade mission. Run 100% research all set.
  • Hire two scientists in Delhi.
  • Fire scientists and hire merchants in Two Fish (still running one Eng). Or, should we just pop a GS and then run all merchants for the next one?
  • Tech Compass - Optics - Astronomy (GS bulb) - Scientific Method.
  • Bribe Toku out of war with Zara. Try Lit + Compass + (maybe) cash in 2t.
  • Spread Buddhism to (in order): Two Fish, Marble, Gondar, Rice... Convert after Two Fish and Marble. After this, do we need to spam missionaries for Justinian, or just continue spamming in our cities?
  • Continue scouting barb island. Should see city in 4-5t ideally. If it's some kind of super city, maybe stop for discussion.
  • Trade Compass for cash as available??? It's not on the Lib line, and some of the AIs are sitting on 100+ gold.
  • Refuse demands from Toku and Sal, agree to others (unless really stupid)?
  • Settling order: Deer - Incense. Should we have a go at gold/fish north of Pataliputra?
  • No more infrastructure. Start slow-building maces or galleons wherever there's nothing to do. No one answered my previous post about the Delhi market - do we even need it?
Anything else?
 
Yeah, any lopsided trade/gift situation counts for WE hate. Including peace trades and what have you. Not sure how the peacing is valued for the third party.
 
Well, there's a penalty for the "default lopsidedness" of tech etc. trades so I have no reason to believe this isn't the case with peace trades as well. But I think it should at most be something like 10% of the total value you give. So for example if it'd cost exactly 1000g (from a "what do you think" proposal), that'd be about equal to 20 turns (Math: 1000g * 2(value/g) / (10 WE value decay per turn)) of WE hate (so in 20 turns the WE hate situation would be the same as it is now). Not a great hit either way.
 
Or, should we just pop a GS and then run all merchants for the next one?

Merchants would be safer in case the RNG screws us again and gives us an artist for the next one.


After this, do we need to spam missionaries for Justinian, or just continue spamming in our cities?

The logistics of spreading Buddishm to Justin simply don't add up. Once we have spread buddishm to the cities you mentioned I think we should concentrate on military units to take the fur as we may need a lot. The rest of the missionaries can easily be left until after our fleet as sailed (except the one used to spread it to the furs city.)

 
The rest of the missionaries can easily be left until after our fleet as sailed (except the one used to spread it to the furs city.)
We want our religion in the furs city before we win the UN vote. If we capture Furs CIty very late, we should have THREE missionaries waiting there, just in case.
 
Looking good, bbp. Definitely take any cash you can. GP plan looks solid too. Hoping to finally find what we've been looking for so long - the damn furs :p I guess the ducks scouted them much earlier and are/were thus in army mode - which really might damage their techpace :)))
 
no we do not need delli market, as we will not run merchants there and will run deficit research to the end of game.
 
Didn't manage to play the full set before the Brazil - Holland game. I'll finish later. Everything is going good.

Turn 195 - 325 AD
- Trade mission 2550g
- Trade corn to Zara for 2gpt
- Building wealth in Ivory, as we have 3 missionaries already

Turn 196 - 340 AD
- Compass done
- Tokugawa completes Parthenon
- Tokugawa comes asking...
- Buddhism spread to Marble

Turn 197 - 355 AD
- Buddhism spread to Two Fish & Gondar
- Negotiate peace for Lit + Compass + 180g. No change in diplo relations.
- Convert to Buddhism. Big change in diplo. :D

Turn 198 - 370 AD
- Optics done.
- Zara converts to Buddhism. ;)
- GS bulb Astro, to complete in 3t.
- Trade sugar to Mehmed for 3gpt.

Turn 199 - 385 AD
- Spy lands on barb island

Turn 200 - 400 AD
- Discover Devil's Gate, a barb city blocking a mountain pass to the south. No sign of fur yet - presumably it's just past the city, as the south galley path is blocked by ice. Not very well defended - 3 units (axes and archers) in the city, and 2 other archers wandering around. I think I'll look to send the galley back for unit transport right away, and continue exploring west with the trireme. Only one barb galley seen so far - died attacking our trireme.

Not much cash available for Compass trading so far. I'm hoping it increases in the next couple of turns.

Spoiler :

Here is your Session Turn Log from 310 AD to 400 AD:


Turn 195, 325 AD: Varanasi has been founded.
Turn 195, 325 AD: You have discovered Compass!
Turn 195, 325 AD: Tokugawa has completed The Parthenon!

Turn 196, 340 AD: Buddhism has spread in Marble.

Turn 197, 355 AD: Buddhism has spread in Two Fish.
Turn 197, 355 AD: Tokugawa has made peace with Zara Yaqob!
Turn 197, 355 AD: Gandhi converts to Buddhism!
Turn 197, 355 AD: You have discovered Optics!
Turn 197, 355 AD: The borders of Marble have expanded!
Turn 197, 355 AD: Justinian I adopts Vassalage!
Turn 197, 355 AD: Zara Yaqob converts to Buddhism!

Turn 198, 370 AD: Justinian I has 60 gold available for trade.
Turn 198, 370 AD: Zara Yaqob has no worst enemy.
Turn 198, 370 AD: The borders of Ivory are about to expand.
Turn 198, 370 AD: Mehmed II will trade Iron
Turn 198, 370 AD: Rice will grow to size 12 on the next turn.
Turn 198, 370 AD: Vijayanagara will grow to size 7 on the next turn.
Turn 198, 370 AD: You have constructed a Barracks in Delhi. Work has now begun on a Market.
Turn 198, 370 AD: The borders of Ivory have expanded!

Turn 199, 385 AD: Rice has grown to size 12.
Turn 199, 385 AD: Vijayanagara has grown to size 7.
Turn 199, 385 AD: Mehmed II has founded Kayseri in a distant land.
Turn 199, 385 AD: Barbarian's Galley (2.00) vs Gandhi's Trireme 1 (Rice) (3.20)
Turn 199, 385 AD: Combat Odds: 4.4%
Turn 199, 385 AD: (Plot Defense: +10%)
Turn 199, 385 AD: (Class Defense: +50%)
Turn 199, 385 AD: Barbarian's Galley is hit for 25 (75/100HP)
Turn 199, 385 AD: Barbarian's Galley is hit for 25 (50/100HP)
Turn 199, 385 AD: Barbarian's Galley is hit for 25 (25/100HP)
Turn 199, 385 AD: Gandhi's Trireme 1 (Rice) is hit for 15 (85/100HP)
Turn 199, 385 AD: Barbarian's Galley is hit for 25 (0/100HP)
Turn 199, 385 AD: Gandhi's Trireme 1 (Rice) has defeated Barbarian's Galley!
Turn 199, 385 AD: While defending, your Trireme 1 (Rice) has killed a Barbarian Galley!

Turn 200, 400 AD: Justinian I will trade Theology
Turn 200, 400 AD: Zara Yaqob will trade Theology
 
Discover Devil's Gate, a barb city blocking a mountain pass to the south. No sign of fur yet - presumably it's just past the city, as the south galley path is blocked by ice. Not very well defended - 3 units (axes and archers) in the city, and 2 other archers wandering around. I think I'll look to send the galley back for unit transport right away, and continue exploring west with the trireme. Only one barb galley seen so far - died attacking our trireme.

If the fur is located down there I agree with sending the galley back, if not we might need to use it to transport the spy further west. We might also want to send another scout to the north in this case.

A couple of minor points:

Given the time it is likely to take us to win Varanasi will be at a higher pop if we grow before completing the lighthouse.

Growing the rice city any further at this point is counterproductive due to the happy cap.


Were we planning on building an observatory in Delhi after Astronomy?
 
mdy, I didn't start an observatory. Doesn't seem like enough time for it to pay off. Instead, I just started a mace.

Turn 201 - 415 AD
- Astronomy done.
- Trade Compass to Mehmed for 90g + map (+2 diplo), to Justinian for 50g

Turn 202 - 430 AD
- GS born in Two Fish. :(
- Trade Compass to Isabella for 90g (+1 diplo)

Turn 203 - 445 AD
- AP resolution: stop trading with Saladin. Abstained.
- We've discovered the fur!

Turn 204 - 460 AD
- AP resolution fails
- S Paya completed
- Total barb forces: Axe + 2 Archers in Devil's Gate; Axe + archer in Zhou; 2 archers and 2 warriors wandering. There are also 2-3 barb workers to steal. We'll need to camp and road fur.

I'm stopping the set, so we can plan the invasion. It won't take many units, but we are production poor, and it's a long way to transport.

Spoiler :

Here is your Session Turn Log from 400 AD to 460 AD:

Turn 200, 400 AD: You have discovered Astronomy!

Turn 201, 415 AD: Niels Bohr (Great Scientist) has been born in Two Fish (Gandhi)!
Turn 201, 415 AD: Tycho Brahe (Great Scientist) has been born in Osaka (Tokugawa)!
Turn 201, 415 AD: Saladin adopts Theocracy!
Turn 201, 415 AD: Zara Yaqob adopts Theocracy!

Turn 202, 430 AD: Delhi has grown to size 14.
Turn 202, 430 AD: Ivory has grown to size 12.
Turn 202, 430 AD: Saladin will trade Theology
Turn 202, 430 AD: Isabella adopts Caste System!

Turn 203, 445 AD: Vijayanagara will grow to size 8 on the next turn.
Turn 203, 445 AD: Gandhi has completed Shwedagon Paya!

Turn 204, 460 AD: Vijayanagara has grown to size 8.
Turn 204, 460 AD: Justinian I has 50 gold available for trade.
 
Some quick notes on the logistics...

Fur: need 4 GP's, 4 warriors, 3-4 missionaries (just in case), 3-4 maces
Pataliputra & Vija: need missionaries transported by ships
3 more cities on mainland need Buddhism

One option would be to transport some of the GP's and warriors to the AI continent, and have them go west on foot. That way we free up some cargo room on ships heading west.

Do we need to keep both barb cities? More pop is better, but it's also more chance of failed Buddhist spread.

Distances
1E of Rice to barb island: 44-45 tiles = 9 galleon turns = 15 galley turns
Ivory to Rice: 8 galley turns

We have 4 maces under production. They could be loaded and @ Rice by T+12, which means T+27 for landing on barb island. The galleons are ready in T+9 (with a chop in Rice) and the galley from barb island returns in T+16.

Getting missionaries ready in time: we can only build them in Ivory and Delhi while in Pacifism. A galleon from Ivory could make it to fur in 3t. Ivory can produce 1 per 3t, after finishing the current mace in 4t. The 3 missionary limit could be an issue, since we still have 5 more cities to spread to.

We're looking at about 35-40t of research by my count, though it should speed up a bit.
 
We are going to need to found at least one more coastal city on the barb island in order to connect the furs to our trade network.

I also think it would be quicker to raise Zhou and settle directly on the furs, so we don't need to wait until it came out of revolt, and it's borders expand, and the workers to complete the furs.

We could keep Devils Gate though. We only need to transport enough missionaries to convert 1 of our 2-3 cities as we can revolt to Organised Religion+ Universal Suffrage once we have mass media and then rush buy however many extra missionaries we needed there.

In order to do this I think we should abandon plans to settle the incense site and save the settler for the barb continent. This should only cost us around 1 pop.

I am a little concerned that Japan is not currently planning to attack anyone. Currently he is only 7 pop larger than Mehmed. Maybe we should gift/sell him CS? At this point I can't see him beating us to liberalism, and having Samurai would boost his power rating, encouraging him to declare war, and making his conquest come faster. Currently both Justin and Saladin have longbows, attack them without Samaurai will be very difficult for the AI.

I suspect we will want more than 3-4 maces in case the RNG is not kind to us.
 
Looking good bbp although I don't see why you finished the paya... I pointed it out when I got back, I thought we were building it for the fail cash.

Good job on locating fur :) I'm not 100% sure anymore but I thought that spreading a religion to a city that has no religion at all has guaranteed success - Neither Zhou nor DevilsGate have any religions right now.

I checked our conditions:

- Your aim in this game is to welcome in Eldine by securing a cultural or diplomatic victory that satisfies the following conditions:

About to do so.

- Every AI is still alive and running a state religion.

Check.

- All your cities have access to fur, dye, silk and ivory.

We have silk and ivory of our own. 2 civs that have 2 sources of dyes. We don't need to DOW anyone, this would only slow us down (but increase our pop). Fur is about to be aquired :hammer:

- You have the welcoming party of four great people and four warriors standing ready on the only fur in the world. (The great people can be of any type)

Warriors are no problem. GPs... another advantage of a war, we could use GGs. I halfheartedly thought about attacking either sally or toku as they won't vote for us anyway and could supply us with some GGs. Again, it slows down our victory date (should we be able to win on the first vote) but would make a victory more likely. However if we fail to get a GE we'll have a few more turns to fulfil our conditions anyway...

- You are running a state religion which has been spread to every one of your cities.

Busy spreading buddhism. Keep on doing it fast as it's a risk factor.

- No more than two AIs have a 'you declared war on us' negative modifier towards you.

Check.



So our goals: Primary goal is to get UN built ASAP with the welcoming party and other conditions fulfilled as well as enough votes to win. Once we discover MM or build the UN (not sure) we can get a good overview of the votes-situation on F8 thanks to BUFFY. Once we discover MM we can start farming over all those cottages in delhi to grow, all other cities are working farms anyway.

As to the welcoming party and the fur - barb situation: Unless something really strage happens we'll have trade routes with devils gate to our home soil thanks to astronomy so the "access to resources in all cities" shouldn't be a problem. The barb defences are far from strong, we should be able to march through there easily.


Roster: With bbp just played, it's now mushroomshirt > silu > mutineer. mushroom and silu, are you still interested in playing?
 
I think you should play next, if you're back now. Otherwise, Mutineer.

Looking good bbp although I don't see why you finished the paya... I pointed it out when I got back, I thought we were building it for the fail cash.
That's unfortunate. I thought we were building SP so as to deny an AI access to FR.

Good job on locating fur I'm not 100% sure anymore but I thought that spreading a religion to a city that has no religion at all has guaranteed success - Neither Zhou nor DevilsGate have any religions right now.
Is that true? It would be very helpful.
 
I think we can manage our logistics like this:


Send galley back from barb island to rice city to handle transport between the sugar island, gold city, and mainland.

workers chop the rice galley then pre workshop the capitals cottages.

Delhi:

Immediately start working both grass mines and build an observatory in 11 turns - we are not production limited, only research and GP limited. Start working cottages again once observatory is built.
Send artist to ivory, arrives T+5
T+16 finish missionary, spread to gold city on T+21
T+21 missionary for sugar city, spread on T+25
T+26 missionary for Bombay, spread on T+27
Build wealth/research till the U.N. is available

Oasis:

settler T+10 send to ivory with warrior garrison
T+13 build archer to replace garrison
emphasise growth and build wealth/research

Incense:

Cancel this city and send settler towards ivory.

Marble:

T+10 build archer. Send warrior to ivory, arrives T+24
Build wealth/research
Send GP to ivory when generated, arrives T+14

Rice:

Chop galleon, send to ivory
Build archer, send warrior to ivory, should arrive by T+24
Send GP to ivory, arrives T+40

Two fish:

Send scientist to ivory, arrives T+7
T+9 finish galleon
T+16 archer, send to ivory, arrives T+27
build wealth/research

Bombay:

T+6 mace, arrives ivory T+16
T+12 mace, arrives ivory T+22
T+18 mace, arrives ivory T+28
T+24 mace, arrives ivory T+34
build wealth/research

Sugar:

T+3 mace
T+11 mace
wealth/research
load 2 maces onto galley and send to ivory, arrives T+16, then use galley to transport units between the mainland and ivory.

Ivory:

T+4 mace
T+8 mace
T+13 mace
T+16 missionary
T+21 mace
T+23 missionary
wealth/research (2T)
T+28 missionary
T+31 missionary
wealth/research/extra missionaries if needed


T+16:The 2 galleons should be ready to lave from 1SE of the ivory on T+16. Load them with 1 settler, 1 missionary for the coastal city, and 4 maces. Should arrive on T+19. Hope the maces can capture a worker to connect this city to the barb road network.

T+23: The 2 galleons sail again with 4 maces, 1 missionary, and 1 warrior. This should enable us to take Devils gate on T+28 and raise Zhou by T+35 at the very latest.

T+29: The 2 galleons sail again with a missionary, settler, 3 warriors and 1GP.

T+40: Final galleons sail with last 3 GP's, and any spare missionaries that are needed

We would have 2 maces in reserve on ivory island under this plan, but we could build more if we thought we had a need for them.

Everything should be ready for victory on T+45 at the latest. We have plenty of spare production for additional missionaries/maces if we have a need for them.


I thought we were building SP so as to deny an AI access to FR.

This is what I thought as well.
 
That all sounds great, mdy. :thumbsup:

We could probably take that island with 4 maces, IMHO. Some insurance is good, but I think 10 maces is definitely overkill.

Do we have to raze Zhou? How long would the revolt be? It's 7-8 pop to be had. We may be able to still build the incense city?

Immediately start working both grass mines and build an observatory in 11 turns
Ok. I guess I should've just started it, but I kept thinking we might need more maces fast.
 
One note, we do not need to build city on barb continent. Building fort would be enough.

I am not clear who is on?
 
Do we have to raze Zhou? How long would the revolt be? It's 7-8 pop to be had. We may be able to still build the incense city?

Possibly not, but we also have to take account of the time it will take us to pop the borders and then camp the fur. Depending on the circumstances it could be close, so I would be inclined to send the settler just in case. Mutineer points out that we could use a fort instead of the coastal city, however I'm not sure that we can rely on capturing the barb workers necessary.

We could probably take that island with 4 maces, IMHO. Some insurance is good, but I think 10 maces is definitely overkill.

4 might be pushing our luck with the RNG, though 10 should be more than enough unless we need to invade somewhere else.




I have just noticed that we can trade for theology, and the Hagia Sophia has not yet been built. We could try to build it in the capital to enhance our chances of getting an engineer there, alternatively we could build it in Bombay, hire and engineer, and try to pop an additional GP there? As it stands our odds of getting an engineer are just under 60% - by far our biggest risk.
 
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