SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

LowtherCastle · Oct 19, 2010

mdy said:
Why does Moscow need to build a warrior, we already have one down there. I don't think it matters if we had to give De Gaulle an extra tech for peace anyway.

Edit: D'oh. Of course, I forgot that we can threaten any city. Good point. We don't need to build another warrior in Moscow (if we're lucky). But the warrior down south needs to safely arrive within 2 tiles of Orleans. Let's see, we'll have Alpha on T77, at the soonest. That same turn we can move the warrior to within 2 tiles and dG will already respond to the threat accordingly. The warrior could either backtrack 2E to the hill and safely go up into the dyes-N forest, NW-N, on T78, or we could risk it and go to the dyes-N forest on T76.

We'd have to gift him PH or Writing to be able to trade CoL for DoP, but we can't gift him anything before DoP, right?

I'm still holding out hope he'll build us GLH, if we can give him Sailing, then Masonry soon enough. It may be a pipe dream, but the trade-off is minimal, I think.

LowtherCastle · Oct 19, 2010

Okay, I'm an idiot, as usual. I've been so hung up on capturing workers from sea that I forgot the tried-and-true method of cease fire then capture, then cease fire then capture. We'll have a nice road going south, we should get a chariot around to dG by around T87, when the peace treaty ends. We won't get any negmods from anyone other than dG because he and Gandhi will despise each other after Gandhi declares a religion. They're already annoyed anyway and Gandhi needs to get to at least +7 visible to be Pleased with dG.

Worker slaving dG and exploration are the two weak links in our current planning.

mdy · Oct 19, 2010

I'm still holding out hope he'll build us GLH, if we can give him Sailing, then Masonry soon enough. It may be a pipe dream, but the trade-off is minimal, I think.

If we are did this wouldn't we have to delay worker stealing from him?

In the circumstances, I agree that the cease fire/worker steal is going to be a lot more workable than using galleys to steal workers, as long as we are confident that we can get another cease fire soon after the worker steal

Do we have an update on De Gaulles techs, I would be surprised if he didn't already have writing enabling us to trade maths/alphabet for peace.

De Gaulle's wandering archers, could make getting our warrior within 2 tiles of Orleans problematic.

LowtherCastle · Oct 19, 2010

Tech Trading with Roosy and CHurchill

Gandhi, Roosy, and CHurchill are the three AIs who are likely trade partners, in that order. Roosy and CHurchill both have tech trade limits of 15 (lowered by difficulty level?) and trade percent 30%. So for now, they both need just one other AI to know the tech and they'll trade, if they don't have other reasons not to.

Roosy has 0 hidden negmods for us so we need him at -2 visible to get OBs and tech trades. This would not be hard if he demands a tech from us. We should consider this.

Churchill has -1 hidden negmods for us so we need him at -1 visible to get OBs and tech trades. This will be hard (expensive) even if he demands a tech from us.

LowtherCastle · Oct 19, 2010

mdy said:
If we are did this wouldn't we have to delay worker stealing from him?

If we determine that dG is building GLH, then of course we would want to leave him in peace. The window of opportunity for him is small, probably, so I suspect it will happen pretty quickly or not at all. We should plan to worker steal and monitor Paris' production.

LowtherCastle · Oct 19, 2010

bbp turnset laundry list updated (Don't want your turnset to be toooo boring...

)

Mitchum · Oct 19, 2010

WFYABTA

LowtherCastle said:
Gandhi, Roosy, and CHurchill are the three AIs who are likely trade partners, in that order. Roosy and CHurchill both have tech trade limits of 15 (lowered by difficulty level?) and trade percent 30%.

Actually, you get a boost depending on what level you're playing (100% on Settler down to 20% on Deity). On Emperor, the boost is 40%. So, the WFYABTA numbers in our game are:

Code:

Gandhi        21
Churchill     21
Roosevelt     21
De Gaulle     14
Stalin         7
Mao            7

Mitchum · Oct 19, 2010

Did we agree on what to do if Gandhi demands CS IBT? I vote to not give it to him... We should be able to make up the -1 diplo hit with him via shared religion and fair trade.

EDIT: Although, refusing may put us below the threshold where he'll even trade with us...

LowtherCastle · Oct 19, 2010

NO WAY we're giving Gandhi CS for free. As it is, it will be very difficult and a long haul to get him up to Friendly, with dubious rewards. CS for lots of techs right now is a huge jump forward for us.

You make a good point, MItchum. We want to check the diplomatic situation at every point during T76! After each trade, it's important to check the diplo screen for ALL changes and ALSO check if we're still WEs with Gandhi. Otherwise we might miss some useful info about Gandhi's and others' hidden random numbers.

Laundry list updated again (bbb: pls remember the laundry list is just ideas, it's your turnset...)

babybluepants · Oct 19, 2010

Mitchum said:
Did we agree on what to do if Gandhi demands CS IBT? I vote to not give it to him... We should be able to make up the -1 diplo hit with him via shared religion and fair trade.

EDIT: Although, refusing may put us below the threshold where he'll even trade with us...

Is he even capable of demanding IBT? I guess so, but I can't quite remember that situation arising in a game. If we gift both COL and Math, we should hit +3 for Trade Relations, and should be able to absorb the -1 hit without losing the following trades. Let's hope it doesn't happen right now.

He will most likely demand Currency later. This isn't part of my TS, but we should think about getting any trade value we can for it as soon as possible.

mdy · Oct 19, 2010

I agree with not giving Gandhi CS for free. If we immediately open borders with him after gifting COL/Maths then we should shortly be able to trade with him again, even if declining his demand makes him annoyed.

bcool · Oct 19, 2010

We might not be able to trade for all of his techs if we give him both CoL and Math. I'm not sure how closely the test game matches the real game, but we needed to trade both Math and CS to get all of Gandhi's techs in the test game.

babybluepants · Oct 19, 2010

mdy said:
I agree with not giving Gandhi CS for free. If we immediately open borders with him after gifting COL/Maths then we should shortly be able to trade with him again, even if declining his demand makes him annoyed.

Doesn't work that way. We have to wait for the turn to roll before signing OB. Like I pointed out above, though, we should have +3 and be able to absorb the hit.

bcool said:
We might not be able to trade for all of his techs if we give him both CoL and Math. I'm not sure how closely the test game matches the real game, but we needed to trade both Math and CS to get all of Gandhi's techs in the test game.

Are you proposing we delay another turn and do some trading with Math? I've been thinking about that, too, as a just-in-case. :dunno:

mdy · Oct 19, 2010

Given how valuable CS is we should be able to get all the immediately important techs. The rest can wait until we get currency, or are able to trade with other AI's.

babybluepants · Oct 19, 2010

LowtherCastle said:
Gandhi, Roosy, and CHurchill are the three AIs who are likely trade partners, in that order

From testing I would say it's only Gandhi and Roos. The problem with this past the very short term is religion. We could get lucky and successfully convert Gandhi to Confu, but that's somewhat unlikely. He'll jump to anything else once a core city gets it.

We probably won't be able to get much, if any value from someone like Roos before the religion strife kicks in. The most important part is getting him (and possibly Churchill) to sign OB while we still can, for future intercontinental TR's.

Communism / Corporations

We can keep options open, but I'm pretty sure we're going SP in this game. The two are not compatible, so no switching halfway. Sushi/Mining requires a lot of planning/setup (GM & the all-elusive GE, awkward tech beeline, courthouses everywhere, corp executive spam).

I was always thinking we'd likely try to Lib Communism here, btw, unless it's more prudent to use it on a mid-game military tech (MT, Steel).

babybluepants · Oct 19, 2010

PRE-PLAY PLAN

Turn 75 - 1000 BC

Research slider to 0% (set to Currency)
Moscow starts a worker, working 2 cows, 2 gold & horse
Fish building WB, working fish, cow & ivory
Worker from ivory to cow - starts road
Worker from desert to 1NW of cow - starts road
South warrior to hill, so it can see 1 tile into DG
North warrior - what do we do with it? Explore the whole ice area for resources?
Screenshots: Overview, Moscow, Fish, EP, F9 Demo, F9 5 Cities, F4 Glance

Turn 76 - 975 BC

Gandhi: give Code of Laws - note diplomatic effect
Gandhi: give Mathematics
South workers move 1S of southernmost road (not sure how to make this more efficient)
Fish: hire two scientists, working fish and cow
South warrior moves next to DG's border
Screenshots: Overview, Moscow, Fish, EP, F9 Demo, F9 5 Cities, F4 Glance

Turn 77 - 950 BC

Refuse CS demand, if Gandhi comes with it
Gandhi: Trade OB
Screenshots: Overview, Moscow, Fish, EP, F9 Demo, F9 5 Cities, F4 Glance
Check possible trades - pause TS for consult
Continuation:
Gandhi: Trade Civil Service for everything we can (except Archery, we really don't need a WFYABTA hit for that)
South warrior moves into DG's borders
De Gaulle: Offer peace treaties, starting with cheapest tech (Priesthood, I guess)
Confucian Missionary moves into Gandhi's borders
Screenshots: Overview, Moscow, Fish, EP, F9 Demo, F9 5 Cities, F4 Glance

To be continued...

Longer-term, I would propose wkr-wkr-str-cha-str-gran-str-grow for Moscow. Fish can go wb-wb-gran and 2pop whip after the GS.

I'm having some trouble with wkr-turn-wasting in the south. Need to test more on that.

LowtherCastle · Oct 19, 2010

Gandhi will trade at Annoyed only if we not his WE. RIght now it's borderline and depends on what random values the two rolled.

I was thinking that if CoL gets Gandhi up to Cautious, we could use Math for techs already. Is that not the case?

Another issue is whether Gandhi will offer us Galley City back at some point. I assume we should accept it, if he does.

-----------

On religion, I noticed that Churchill got Monotheism/Judaism. Plus, Gandhi hasn't met him, but met both Mao and Roosy, so presumably Gandhi is not too close to CHurchill. He also doesn't have a religious wonder, so it will be hard for him to pop a Prophet, so he might not get Christianity either. We may have a good chance of getting Confucianism into his capital before any other religion spreads to it.

babybluepants · Oct 19, 2010

LowtherCastle said:
I was thinking that if CoL gets Gandhi up to Cautious, we could use Math for techs already. Is that not the case?

The issue is timing. I don't think we can trade on the same turn we get the diplo spike, and we can't trade CS until a turn after trading Math. Also, the +2 for COL alone seems to be cutting it close, and I can't figure out how to calculate it with total precision (nor would I necessarily trust it if I did). There was an issue in previous testing where I'd hit +2, wait for the turn roll to trade and it drops to +1 IBT.

LowtherCastle said:
Another issue is whether Gandhi will offer us Galley City back at some point. I assume we should accept it, if he does.

Don't think I've ever had an AI offer me a city. :lol:

Is that seriously possible?

LowtherCastle · Oct 19, 2010

Southern warrior: As I understand it, he was just up on the hill and saw dG archers. That means if they follwed him, they're just ont eh other side of the hill and will kill our warrior if you go back up there. That's why I recommended using the Dye-N-Forest route--it only exposes the warrior to one tile of potential danger. But we don't need to go to that tile this turn, because that might draw an archer toward it prematurely. So I would just leave the warrior where it is this turn, so he knows what's coming from behind. Next turn, move to Dyes-N and hope for the best.

LowtherCastle · Oct 19, 2010

babybluepants said:
The issue is timing. I don't think we can trade on the same turn we get the diplo spike, and we can't trade CS until a turn after trading Math. Also, the +2 for COL alone seems to be cutting it close, and I can't figure out how to calculate it with total precision (nor would I necessarily trust it if I did). There was an issue in previous testing where I'd hit +2, wait for the turn roll to trade and it drops to +1 IBT.

Don't think I've ever had an AI offer me a city. Is that seriously possible?

You're planning to check to see if CoL makes dG WE anyway, so you'll also see if that opens up tech trades with Gandhi. We want to get BW asap, so you'll either trade or gift math, evidently...

Gandhi would be liberating Galley City. It will cost him an arm and a leg in maintenance. I have no idea on the mechanics, but I believe mdy mentioned something about when we start getting culture in there. That won' happen for Fish 4th border expansion or GP Farm's third (100 :culture:

).

SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

Deity

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Emperor

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Deity

Emperor

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Emperor

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