SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

LowtherCastle · Nov 10, 2010

mdy said:
If we can only take Rheims if we can lure units out until it has 2 archers, then taking Rheims will not get us a GG, nor will picking off the other odd unit. If we switched to theocracy then confunicism should spread to most of our cities soon enough without us having to invest hammers into them. The one exception is the GP farm, but we don't really need a religion there until we can switch to pacifism and we should be able to build a monastry by then.

Capturing the odd unit, then Rheims would do it.

Capturing Rheims would give us 4-8 GG pts. We'd need about 23 more GG pts. That's our chariots defeating 4 archers in the open. For that we'd need 6 chariots, so we could lose two at 67% odds. If we decide to go in this direction, we'd be prioritizing that over worker capture, in the sense that we'd lose some of our workers stealers or we might DoW to attack an archer rather than waiting for a worker to appear.

It's a strategy decision. Build HS in Moscow and a few more chariots elsewhere.

There's no point in me working out MM details until we decide where we're headed next. THere are too many options and the MM is different for each one.

In the final analysis, capturing Rheims and capturing Paris are two different battle fronts and require two different stacks. So we should consider them two separate short-term options. We could do one, the other, or both.

babybluepants · Nov 10, 2010

Hmm... Forgot about IMP. :blush:

I guess it's an option, but it would take some effort to catch 4+ archers out in the open. Also, I wonder what this would do to our option of a Medic by the time we make a run at Mao.

DG's got lots of promos, too, so we'll have some chariot casualties. How does this time with our mace/cat build-up?

Agree on delaying the TS. We have lots of decisions.

LowtherCastle · Nov 10, 2010

Okay, here's my second PPP proposal. Haven't thought about specific MM details too much.

Goals
1. OBs/tech trades with Roosy
2. Accumulate GGpts
3. Build HS
4. Prepare for/capture Rheims
5. Prepare for mobilization at Galley City

1. Finish GLib, then revolt to Representation.
2. BUild the slower, 7t-HS in Moscow, while making a far or two and preparing to grow Moscow to ~pop14
3. Fish finishes the galley then builds 2-3 chariots which go south, while gradually growing to work max hammers and some coastal tiles.
4. Other cities develop. Maybe another axe in Pigs first.
5. Workers develop cities, build a fort at Galley-E, road to Rheims2SE and perhaps scrub/rd the stone (complicated by continual ceasefires).
6. Our two worker stealer stacks use various ploys to draw out archers or other units for GG pt accumulation, and also steal the odd worker.
6.1 Maybe build an archer or two to fortify on the hill at Marseilles-1SE, along with an axe. Maybe provoke some attacks.
EDIT: 6.2 BUIld 2-3 swords!!! Duh!!! We have iron now don't we, Gentlemen! I'll see into Rheims again next turn, but iirc it has 4 unpromoted archers. That gives an unpromoted sword a ~61% chance of victory and 6GG pts with each victory. We could crank out 1-2 from Moscow immediately and 1 from Pigs. QED.

Other:
7. Get OBs/Construction from Roosy.
8. Trade CoL for gold to get AIs building chs for us (been holding off on this till we used itwith Roosy)
9. Settle Sheep City if it looks good, otherwise Bananas.

Rationale:
1. I just don't like revolting in and out of Theocracy for 6-8XP on 3-4 units, especially when we're Imperialistic and can produce a GG relatively quickly if we apply ourselves.
2. Rheims and Paris are separate fronts. Rheims is more important (gems/stone/better city) and we already have 6 units in that area. Maces will take too long to get there, so better to send chariots from the north and maybe add an axe(sword/mace?) from the south. Upgrades are too expensive at 125g when we're commerce-scarce as it is. Meanwhile, keep preparing for Paris.
3. We now have lots of workers so it's timely to shift our focus slightly to gathering GG pts.
4. We definitely want 5XP cats for Paris because we're limited by naval transport to 4 units per turn. bcool showed that 2maces+2cats then more maces is a great 2t attack.
5. I don't like using Fish's hill for a fort. Fish is one of our few hammer cities.
6. The timing of all this works reasonably well, considering when the galleys will get to Galley City in about 12t.
EDIT: 7. NE in Pigs in the next ~23t should assure the next three GPs beating Moscow, thus freeing other cities to develop, build wealth, units or whatever.

Feedback?

babybluepants · Nov 10, 2010

LowtherCastle said:
9. Settle Sheep City if it looks good, otherwise Bananas.

No. I'm for the Bananas, to be probably followed by more on-continent settling. I think we'll need relatively short-term production that's not galley-transport dependent. Island cities should be whipping WB's, infrastructure and further island settlers, and can't usefully contribute to anything else for a while. 3 out of 5 home cities will be likely dedicated to GP for the foreseeable future.

LowtherCastle said:
4. Other cities develop. Maybe another axe in Pigs first.

Are we planning for NE?

LowtherCastle · Nov 10, 2010

babybluepants said:
No. I'm for the Bananas, to be probably followed by more on-continent settling. I think we'll need relatively short-term production that's not galley-transport dependent. Island cities should be whipping WB's, infrastructure and further island settlers, and can't usefully contribute to anything else for a while. 3 out of 5 home cities will be likely dedicated to GP for the foreseeable future.

Are we planning for NE?

My answer to your second question addresses your first. If Pigs gets the NE in teh next ~23t, it should beat Moscow to the next three GPs, even if Moscow adds the 2 :gp:

from HS. So all other cities are free of GP spamming for now. That's good, because it would be nice to develop 2-3 cities that can build wealth. That would be Fish, Bahamas, and SHeep, as far as I can tell. But of course, they need their infra and growth first.

Bananas is okay, at best. It really shouldn't be using the ivory or GP bananas, so it'll grow slowly and produce only 8hpt. But we can't really discuss it, because we can't see all of SHeep. This is a conditional step, to me. But my main rationale is that we need some wealth producers. Sheep is clearly better for that than bananas, if it has at least one more food resource. It has more hills. If it doesn't have another food resource, it can wait. But we could build both also. The galley is available for Sheep now, it won't be later.

bcool · Nov 10, 2010

So we are delaying the HS to build a swordsmen or 2?

Would interrupting the galley build in Fish make sense to build a swordsman? But swordsmen would take quite a while to walk down to Rheims...

What about researching machinery and promoting the axemen to macemen? Or even promoting a warrior to a swordsman? and/or building another swordsmen in Pigs? To get the necessary force to take out Rheims and get the points for a GG.
Leaves Moscow to build the HS, faster than waiting for swordsmen to walk down. You could even whip a sword out of GP farm perhaps.

5. I don't like using Fish's hill for a fort. Fish is one of our few hammer cities.

That fort would be temporary. But I understand your reluctance.

mdy · Nov 10, 2010

What happens if De gaule reinforces Rheims before we can attack it, it could easily happen? Risking the Hagia Sophia to build swords when we are only 6 turns from getting vastly superior maces is not an efficient use of resources in my opinion, especially when the attack may need to be delayed anyway. We should be able to build/whip 2-3 maces in pigs city which should be adequate when combined with our existing forces down there. By my estimate this would only delay the attack on Rheims by around 4 turns.

5. I don't like using Fish's hill for a fort. Fish is one of our few hammer cities.

Couldn't we build the fort 1E of galley city instead?

The sheep site would give us another +1 health, so I am inclined to settle this first, especially as doing this next seems to fit in better with our galley timetable.

One other minor point: Is there any reason we are building a farm in the capital which does not get the +1 commerce bonus from being next to a river?

LowtherCastle · Nov 10, 2010

bcool said:
So we are delaying the HS to build a swordsmen or 2?

Would interrupting the galley build in Fish make sense to build a swordsman? But swordsmen would take quite a while to walk down to Rheims...

What about researching machinery and promoting the axemen to macemen? Or even promoting a warrior to a swordsman? and/or building another swordsmen in Pigs? To get the necessary force to take out Rheims and get the points for a GG.
Leaves Moscow to build the HS, faster than waiting for swordsmen to walk down. You could even whip a sword out of GP farm perhaps.

That fort would be temporary. But I understand your reluctance.

Yes. Delaying HS just a turn or two. I don't like delaying the galley, because it needs many turns to get around to the Galley-1E fort. I don't think we should consider promoting military units when we are so strapped for coins as it is. If we had HS, then we could play loose with worker turns. I like your idea to quickly attack Paris. It's an excellent, well-thought-out strategy, imo. I just think it's weighted too heavily toward Paris and not enough toward HS+Rheims. In my experience, it's vital to strive for an optimal mix. If Paris were an uber-capital, I'd agree with you. That said, if we don't do your strategy, we may find out later it was the right one... :goodjob:

mdy said:
What happens if De gaule reinforces Rheims before we can attack it, it could easily happen? Risking the Hagia Sophia to build swords when we are only 6 turns from getting vastly superior maces is not an efficient use of resources in my opinion, especially when the attack may need to be delayed anyway. We should be able to build/whip 2-3 maces in pigs city which should be adequate when combined with our existing forces down there. By my estimate this would only delay the attack on Rheims by around 4 turns.

Couldn't we build the fort 1E of galley city instead?

The sheep site would give us another +1 health, so I am inclined to settle this first, especially as doing this next seems to fit in better with our galley timetable.

One other minor point: Is there any reason we are building a farm in the capital which does not get the +1 commerce bonus from being next to a river?

De Gaulle has been reinforcing Marseilles, but not Rheims. All that Rheims has is self-built, and he's likely to build another archer or two before we get there. But if we send down swords, they're useful no matter what. I don't think it's a waste, because I think we should focus on GG points. That's why I put that first on my list and capturing Rheims further down. It's always a guess, but I'm fairly confident we'll have a beneficial result.

I don't think we're risking the HS, plain and simple. Gandhi has small cities, no marble, he's not industrious, and hasn't built a wonder yet.

I don't want to wait for maces because they take too long to arrive from Moscow. The timing I'm looking at is 1 or 2 immediate swords from Moscow, then revolt to Representation. I'm striving to achieve a good balance. Rep asap, strong attack force at Rheims, but not delay our attack on Paris, still build HS fairly quickly, develop our other cities appropriately, and crank out GSes in Pigs.

That last point is why we shouldn't/couldn't poprush maces from Pigs. It needs to work 2sci nonstop and build the NE in the next 23t.

Yes, my idea is for the fort to be at Galley-1E. bcool proposed an all-out attack plan on Paris with two forts.

The grass farm in Moscow is because I prefer cottages on the river tiles in Moscow. They will still pay off, imo, but that's been a hotly debated topic while you've been gone. The other reason is that the workers were already there, having chopped the Pyramids.

Speaking of while you've been gone: Welcome back, mdy!!!

LowtherCastle · Nov 10, 2010

To me the question is, what's the best way to put together 3-4 swords down there asap?

babybluepants · Nov 10, 2010

Ok, I give up on Bananas. If there's another food to go with sheep, we can found that city next.

I think this is getting into the realm of midgame strategy, however. Generally speaking (and this is without the need to clear fallout), I wouldn't expect cities founded past this point to contribute much to a Renaissance war effort. They take time to set up and mature. My strategic issues right now:
1) General note: I think we're too worried about low-percentage slider.
2) Are we in Slavery indefinitely, or are we intending to run Caste relatively soon?
3) Are we beelining Education and Oxford. Is this going into Moscow? If so, are we intending to still use Moscow as the primary military pump? If not, where is Oxford going? If yes, how are we producing units?
4) Are we still withholding on Optics/Astro indefinitely? This has a consequence in potential island city contributions beyond their own needs.
5) What is the overall conquest plan? Gradually capturing French cities with a limited investment in mace/catapult seems ok, but I don't see us going through Mao or Churchill with that. Is the major conquest phase happening around Steel? If not, when? Does this precede Liberalism? We need to plan for this and have and idea of roughly how many units we'll need (10 or 40), when, and where they will be produced, and the opportunity costs (i.e. how to keep research going at the necessary rate if we still need Lib, Comm, etc.)
6) How many cities are we settling before Communism, and where?

Can't think of anything else for now...

bcool · Nov 10, 2010

I don't see how to get 3-4 swords down there without building 2 swords in Moscow which would attack in 10 turns. By that time you could get a sword in Pigs probably. That's 3 swords earliest possible would be 10 turns though before you attack. 11 turns before you get a GG born, up to 2 turns to get the GG to Moscow or more if GG is born on an island.

The "get a GG born" plan has some flaws. You could build Macemen in Moscow while you wait for the GG to get there I suppose.

1 more turn of anarchy (switching back to Organized religion after switching to theocracy with representation) costs us about an equivalent of ~120 :hammers:

and ~50

. Plus the hammers we lose from not having the benefits of OR for ~12 turns? Maybe another 140 :hammers:

?

What do we gain?
6 turns of producing military units in Moscow with theocracy, 12 turns of producing military units in Fish with theocracy, 11 turns of producing military units in Pigs with theocracy.

That translates into approximately 2 macemen and 2 catapults? in Moscow, galley & at least 1 macemen in fish, catapult and/or Maceman in Pigs if we whip.

Destroying DeG proceeds well in ~16 turns from now with minimal loses. Can use the GG produced to get a unit to 10+ xp so we can start building the Heroic Epic.
Heroic Epic that much earlier could pay for the hammers we lose in the 1 turn of anarchy switching back to Organized religion and the 12 turns we are working without it.

Promoted Macemen with city raider promotions make very nice riflemen...

bcool · Nov 10, 2010

I blew it guys, I opened the real save to look around and left the computer. When I came back the turn ended when I opened the window up again. I've uploaded the save. I'm sorry I don't think too much damage was done. Although I had switched the production in Moscow to a swordsmen when I was assessing the swordsmen plan LC proposed. So Moscow produced a swordsman instead of starting the HS.

Spoiler :

babybluepants · Nov 11, 2010

No big.

Let's try to be a bit more careful, though. That's twice already this game.

LowtherCastle · Nov 11, 2010

Things happen. I try to never leave the Real Save open for longer than when I briefly check it out for some info. It's easy enought to just re-open whenever. But I've never heard of that happening. GUess that's how we learn.

Well done on completing the Great LIbrary!

.

LowtherCastle · Nov 11, 2010

babybluepants said:
That's twice already this game.

Three times is a charm. Better be careful, bbp, you might be next...

I feel like we're playing a BIg Brother type game where every so often you get a new constraint out of the blue. I don't know if OSS has some sort of fatalistic destiny or what. This kind of stuff hasn't happened to me before to such an extent and you guys lost that city in SG10 after a great start...

We'll just have to buck the odds, won't we?

LowtherCastle · Nov 11, 2010

bcool said:
Can use the GG produced to get a unit to 10+ xp so we can start building the Heroic Epic.

Now that's a thought! Would we build it in Moscow? That means if we build Oxford there, that's it for national wonders.

Thoughts?

mdy · Nov 11, 2010

We could allow Moscow to generate our next GP. We don't really need another scientist until we get to education and pigs should easily have enough time to generate another GS in time for it. This would free up pigs to build 2 macemen. Given the extra time it takes units to travel south from Moscow this would only lead to a delay of 3T. Given that our maces would probably accumalate XP quicker than swords this could actually lead to an earlier GG, as well as increasing the chances of taking Rheims-he must have reinforced it at some point - I can't see him building 3 archers there. An additional benefit of this is that it would give us an increased chance of getting a GE. We would have a relatively small chance of getting one as our next GP in Moscow, but that city should be able to generate at least one more with a significantly greater chance of us getting one than we would have otherwise. A prophet at this point wouldn't be too bad, we could build the Confunican shrine or settle it.

mdy · Nov 11, 2010

Now that's a thought! Would we build it in Moscow? That means if we build Oxford there, that's it for national wonders.

Thoughts?

The only other viable contender for a national wonder in Moscow looks like the Ironworks, and we should be able to find another good site for that, so I think we should go for it.

LowtherCastle · Nov 11, 2010

Okay, guys, I made a few moves in the saves and uploaded. Have a look.

Turnset Report T124-T125

T124
Switch Moscow build to sword
Auto-<enter>

IT
Rheims 1pops a wb and sends an archer toward Lyons
Roosy gives us -1 for being heathens, we missed our window for OBs for the time being. (Sorry bbp.)

T125
Warrior-scout moves 1N and spies pigs at the Sheep site!
Our axe collects 4GGpts on dG archer. Rheims has 2 archers, 1wb, and a wandering archer at 1S.
W16 moves to teleport hill for a scenic vista
chariot moves 1N to prepare to pillage road

---------------

Discussion
Roosy will not get more negmods for heathenry, according to my tests. So to get him to Cautious, we can hope he demands another tech and accept. Meanwhile, I propose we gift him a load of resources (cow+deer+ivory). We can get +1 in 10t, if we add one more resource in less than 5 turns.

I moved units around down by Marseilles/Rheims/Lyons so we can more easily analyze the current situation there. Of course, we'll ceasefire this turn, teleporting the worker to Pigs-3W, assuming no one hits <enter> first... :lol:

Rheims has a bunch of overflow from the poprush, so the chariot will pillage the road hopefully cutting off access to iron. Rheims will be much easier to capture with only archers/warriors.

Now we just need to sort out the best plan of attack, using hardcore facts. :yup:

LowtherCastle · Nov 11, 2010

mdy said:
We could allow Moscow to generate our next GP. We don't really need another scientist until we get to education and pigs should easily have enough time to generate another GS in time for it.

mdy said:
An additional benefit of this is that it would give us an increased chance of getting a GE. We would have a relatively small chance of getting one as our next GP in Moscow, but that city should be able to generate at least one more with a significantly greater chance of us getting one than we would have otherwise. A prophet at this point wouldn't be too bad, we could build the Confunican shrine or settle it.

I've thought about this too. Primarily it's a question of how important is OXford to us, imo. The first GP from Pigs is guaranted GS. None after that will be guaranteed. Since we're not building cottages to speak of in Moscow, the sooner we get Oxford the better, if we're gonig to put it in Moscow at all. We could also consider letting Moscow build the second GP.

mdy said:
Given that our maces would probably accumalate XP quicker than swords this could actually lead to an earlier GG, as well as increasing the chances of taking Rheims-he must have reinforced it at some point - I can't see him building 3 archers there.

Okay, I did a quick analysis of maces versus swords and the results are unexpected. Against only archers, swords are flat-out more cost-effective. Check it out:

Code:

Statistics:
           sword       maceman
cost       40h         70h
D1 archer  58.11% 3XP  72.27 2XP  [COLOR="Green"]Note the mace doesn't have[/COLOR]
Archer     61.26% 3XP  74.87 2XP  [COLOR="green"]drastically better odds of winning[/COLOR]

Theoretical:
           7 swords    4 maceman  [COLOR="Green"]Against 4 archers[/COLOR]
cost       280h        280h
4 wins     10-26XP                [COLOR="Green"]Most likely 20+[/COLOR]                     
3 wins                 12XP

Our situation Capture Rheims #1:
           4 swords    2 maceman
cost       160h        140h
3 wins     18XP                   [COLOR="green"]Odds are maybe 50/50[/COLOR]       
1 axe       4XP
---------------------------
2 wins                  8XP       [COLOR="green"]Odds are less than 75%[/COLOR]
2 chars                12XP       [COLOR="green"]XP depends on damage to archers when losing axes[/COLOR]

Our situation Capture Rheims #2:
           4 swords    2 maceman
cost       160h        140h
2 wins     12XP                   [COLOR="green"]Strong odds[/COLOR]       
2 axes      8XP                   [COLOR="green"]2 axes clean up, with chariots still as backup[/COLOR]
---------------------------
2 wins                 8XP
2 chars                4XP        [COLOR="green"]Here, we've lost 2 axes and 2 chariots[/COLOR]

Our situation Capture Rheims #3:
           4 swords    2 maceman
cost       160h        140h
2 wins     12XP       
2 axes      4XP                   [COLOR="Green"]Chariots beat red-lined archers[/COLOR]
---------------------------
1 win                  4XP        [COLOR="green"]Strong odds[/COLOR]
3 chars                6-12XP     [COLOR="green"]XP depends on how red-lined archers are when we finally defeat them[/COLOR]

In general, the 4 swords have a much better chance of collecting the necessary GG pts. Two macemen isn't really enough. SHould have 3 mace or add some other units as back-ups.

To me, the real test comes after we pillage the road and see what Rheims produces next. If metal is cut off, there's no reason to believe dG will reinforce Rheims. He's building an SoD in Marseilles. Rheims already has its quota of defenders anyway. IN that case, I don't see why we shouldn't send down 4 swords and get this business wrapped up, regardless of how we use the GG.

SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

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