SGOTM 16 - U'nu'sual S'us'pec'ts

Sorry, my bad. Market in Commerce was beyond the PPP, Commerce whipped everything that was on the PPP, and as this is going to be our long term commerce city, a market seemed prudent. Commerce doesn't have many hammers, so fail gold wonders in it seems non-optimal.
Market will bring in a permanent 6gpt and growing, building wealth would bring in a temporary 5gpt, but I should have asked!

Brennus cannot plot at Pleased, so as long as he stays more than +5 (we are currently +10), we are 100% safe.

We can safely sell anything to Ramesses and not risk Brennus getting mad. Alpha would be my choice, as Brennus already has it, and Ramesses doesn't have any EP's on us.

I do like the though of keeping an ally alive on our continent, but I admit my (probably forlorn) hope is that Ramesses survives and switched to Buddhism.

IMO, long term we will want most of Brennus' cities, as this will accelerate our tech rate. We need his shrine, which will bring in about 20gpt.

edit: the Machinery->Optics first idea is an interesting one. :thumbsup: I will need to study it. :scan:
 
- Woody 2 Warrior should pillage Cows next turn, then the mine, then the farm..... keep pillaging.
Can we do this if we aren't at war? Are we at war? Have we agreed to go to war?
Spoiler :
I haven't looked at the save. The answer is probably that we can pillage lands that aren't in anyone's cultural border.


.... Is it better to build Parth for fail gold?
Should we build the Parth for the GP bonus?
 
Here's the start of a PPP. This is an incomplete draft to get discussions started.

Tech path: Math > Calendar > Machinery (bulb)> Optics > Start CoL > Bulb Astro before finishing CoL > Phil (bulb)

or

Machinery > Optics > Math > Calendar > Start CoL > Bulb Astro before finishing CoL > Phil (bulb)

City builds: Lots of harbors to get the economy back on its feet. (Edit: updated after looking at the save)

Paris - Finish Buddhist temple (2 turns) > Harbor

GP Farm - Whip Forge in 2 turns, overflow into NE (Edit: or Parthenon?)

Production - Finish settler for Iron Wheat > Harbor (or another settler?) > Barracks (Maybe build Maoi here, as it will run out of useful land tiles?)

Commerce - Finish Market (12 turns) > Buddhist Monastery?

Clams - Whip Forge > Harbor

Barb City - Whip Forge > Fishing Boats for Iron Clams and Sugar Clams > Harbor

East Fish - Whip Forge next turn start Harbor or Maoi Statues?

Sugar Clams - Granary > Forge > Harbor

Zhou - Granary > Forge > Harbor

Iron Clams - Granary > Forge

Iron Wheat will be settled on the riverside tile where Chariot 10 is currently positioned.

Worker Micro:
-2 workers at Clams finish cottage and then move to Iron Wheat: farm wheat, improve iron and start roading
-workers at Commerce finish FP cottaging, road the tile they are on cottage river-side plains tiles
-workers in Paris cottage grassland tiles and river-side plains tiles
-workers on Barb island cottage Zhou (no chops until Math), improve iron, mine hillls
 
^^ looks good

Missionary for the colonies, maybe from Production.
Statues in East Fish
Machinery, Optics path for caravels and tech trades with other continent. Maybe put CoL (partial) ahead of Math/Calendar - we can get them in trade.
 
Can we do this if we aren't at war? Are we at war? Have we agreed to go to war?
Spoiler :
I haven't looked at the save. The answer is probably that we can pillage lands that aren't in anyone's cultural border.

Yes, the lands aren't owned at the moment.

Only had a brief look at the PPP, but...

GP Farm must build NE after the forge whip, and not parthenon. We are going to produce a lot of GS' from here.

I personally wouldn't build Maoi in Production, though I can see that as a interesting idea. Production is a great hammer city already, and Moai would make it a little better, but Maoi will transform a city like East Fish into a hammer monster. Thus giving us 2 great production cities.

edit: probably won't be able to comment again until tomorrow, but I'm sure I will have a lot to say (as usual)
 
Holy cow, I've missed a lot.

Good going Neil! :thumbsup:

Yay, IW and iron (almost). Another objective down. :dance:

I will read and comment more after the baseball game. :cheers:

Congratulations! I am enjoying your progress! Also very efficient teamplay! :goodjob:
 
Only had a brief look at the PPP, but...

GP Farm must build NE after the forge whip, and not parthenon. We are going to produce a lot of GS' from here.

I personally wouldn't build Maoi in Production, though I can see that as a interesting idea. Production is a great hammer city already, and Moai would make it a little better, but Maoi will transform a city like East Fish into a hammer monster. Thus giving us 2 great production cities.

edit: probably won't be able to comment again until tomorrow, but I'm sure I will have a lot to say (as usual)

OK - NE after the forge whip in GP Farm. After looking at the save again, i also agree about the Moai statues not being in production. As you point out, it's a great hammer city already, so it would be better to develop another hammer city. Production can't produce more than 1 unit/turn after all.

I'm not planning on building many units with this plan, but maybe that needs to wait until we get a barracks up in Production, and can build maces or cats (no CS or Construction in the tech plan).

I will look at the save some more and wait for more input before posting a revised PPP.
 
Not a problem. I am planning on waiting to see if there is more discussion before doing any revisions. I just put out a rough draft PPP to get some discussions going.
 
Calendar does instantly raise our happy cap by 2.

It all depends on trying to predict the future, if the paris gp is a GS, then i would prefer to research maths and calendar first, bulb machinery and then research optics and single bulb and research astro.
Calendar is about 10 turns away iirc, paris gp is 7, so it would go very well with a GS to bulb machinery.

Going machinery first will take about 12 turns if we do that first, and optics another 10 after that. So optics will be in about the same time for both. But we then research something else while building caravels and finding ai. CoL was mentioned. Trade for maths, with brennus?, and calendar. 2x bulb astro.

Machinery first does postpone the +2 happy from calendar, by a fair number of turns, and the extra hammers from a few chops we want to do (maoi in east fish and new wheat cities come to mind).
Will an extra 2 happy make a difference for the 20 or so turns we delay it?
How likely are we to get calendar in trade? Not very, not before MoM is built.


On another note, how about parthenon in production?
 
I'm trying to put some proper numbers together.

Assumptions:
- No Parthenon.
- 0% research gives ~ 20bpt
- 100% research gives ~230bpt
- Sustainable rate is 33% or 1 turn at 100% for every 2 turns at 0%.
- Paris GP due in 7 turns, ~60% GS
- GP Farms 1st GP due in 13 turns, ~80% GS (assume we get GS)
- GP Farms 2nd GP due in 26 turns, ~90% GS (assume we get GS)

Maths first
Maths & Calendar combined are 9 turns away (6 turns at 0% science, 3 at 100%)

If first GP a GS:
Machinery bulbed in 9 turns from now,
Optics is then ~8 turns more (5 at 0%, 3 at 100%), finishing in ~17 turns from now.
GP Farm GS bulbs Astro ~1600 beakers
Astro is then researched for another ~12-13 turns, finishing in ~29 turns from now.
GS puts Academy in Commerce in 27 turns from now OR is saved to bulb Philo.

If first GP is a Prophet:
Machinery is ~11 turns (8 at 0%, 3 at 100%), finishing in ~20 turns from now.
Optics is then ~7 turns more (4 at 0%, 3 at 100%), finishing in ~27 turns from now.
2 x GS bulbs Astro, finishing in 28 turns from now.
Prophet is kept for a Shrine


Machinery first
Machinery is ~11 turns (8 at 0%, 3 at 100%)
Optics is then ~7 turns more (4 at 0%, 3 at 100%), finishing in ~18 turns from now.

If we trade/steal Maths:
Calendar is ~6 turns, finishing in ~24 turns from now. I will assume we cannot trade for it. If we can, research CoL.
2 x GS bulbs Astro, finishing in 25 turns from now. (if 1st GP is not a GS, this is delayed to 27 turns from now)
Other GP (Prophet or GS) available.

If we do not trade/steal Maths:
Maths is 3 turns, finishing in ~21 turns from now
Calendar is ~6 turns, finishing in ~27 turns from now. I will assume we cannot trade for it. If we can, research CoL.
2 x GS bulbs Astro, finishing in 28 turns from now.
Other GP (Prophet or GS) available.


Do these numbers look reasonable???


Summary

Calendar
Maths first gets us to Calendar in ~9 turns
Machinery first gets us to Calendar in ~24 or ~27 turns

Optics
Maths first gets us to Optics in ~17 or 27 turns, depending if 1st GP is a GS or not
Machinery first gets us to Optics in ~18 turns

Astro
Maths first gets us to Astro in ~27 or ~28 turns, depending if 1st GP is a GS or not
Machinery first gets us to Astro in ~25, ~27 or ~28 turns, depending if 1st GP is a GS or not and if we get Maths in a trade

So, Astro dates are roughly equal.
IF we get a GS first, IMO the clear choice would have been Maths first, as we get the benefit of Calendar 15 turns earlier, Optics 1 turn earlier and Astro 2 turns later.

If we don't get a GS with the Paris GP, then Machinery first looks superior, as while Calendar is still 15 turns late, Optics is 9 turns earlier.

Getting Optics as early as possible is very desirable, to establish contact and so that Astro trade routes occur as early as possible.

My Conclusion
Machinery first is safer, as we are not depending on the first GP being a GS.
I think we can manage without the Calendar +2 happy for a little bit.
 
Here's the start of a PPP. This is an incomplete draft to get discussions started.

Tech path: Math > Calendar > Machinery (bulb)> Optics > Start CoL > Bulb Astro before finishing CoL > Phil (bulb)

Sell Alpha to Ramesses this turn.

Tech path: Machinery > Optics > Math > Calendar > Start CoL (or Construction) > Bulb Astro before finishing/trading CoL > Phil (bulb) My vote

City builds: Lots of harbors to get the economy back on its feet. (Edit: updated after looking at the save)

Paris - Finish Buddhist temple (2 turns) > Harbor > Market > Caravel (as soon as Optics is done)

GP Farm - Whip Forge in 2 turns, overflow into NE > then Harbor

Production - Finish settler for Iron Wheat > Buddhist missionary, due in ~6 turns > Harbor > Parthenon > Caravel

Commerce - Finish Market (12 turns) > Buddhist missionary, due in ~18 turns > Buddhist Monastery?

Clams - Whip Forge > Harbor > lighthouse, Don't whip forge, its almost done

Barb City - Whip Forge > Fishing Boats for Iron Clams and Sugar Clams > Whip Harbor, Only 1 WB needed

East Fish - Whip Forge next turn start Harbor or Maoi Statues > Harbor

Sugar Clams - Granary > Forge > Harbor

Zhou - Granary > Forge > Harbor

Iron Clams - Granary > Forge

Iron Wheat will be settled on the riverside tile where Chariot 10 is currently positioned.

Worker Micro:
-2 workers at Clams finish cottage and then move to Iron Wheat: farm wheat, improve iron and start roading (go via the last non-cottaged FP in Commerce, road to wheat, wheat won't be in cutural borders for another 10 turns)
-workers at Commerce finish FP cottaging, road the tile they are on cottage river-side plains tiles
-workers in Paris cottage grassland tiles and river-side plains tiles, send one to Barb City, cottage riverside plains, cottage FP's when possible
-workers on Barb island cottage Zhou (no chops until Math), improve iron, mine hillls pre-mine PHF worker is already standing on, and make sure workers don't move 2 tiles and then don't move next turn, always road/cancel

comments in blue
 
Technologies

There are two tech paths up for debate. Neil has written up a a good analysis, that I will add to and then disagree with.

1) Math > Calendar > Machinery (bulb)> Optics > Start CoL > Bulb Astro before finishing CoL > Phil (bulb)

2) Machinery > Optics > Math > Calendar > Start CoL > Bulb Astro before finishing CoL > Phil (bulb)

I disagree with the assumption of no Parthenon. I am STRONGLY in favor of building this. It will take ~14 turns to build in production. And will be useful for quite a while since I can't at the moment see any rush to get to Sci Meth. Granted we'll get there quickly, but I think the Parthenon is worth it. Also, we don't need to build any more settlers (EDIT: not true -- 2 fish). So the only things Production could be building instead are a harbor, chariots, or workers (which can be whipped into the Parthenon).

Also, the Parthenon will have nice synergy with the MoM which I am also STRONGLY in favor of building, which is why I will be voting for Maths and Calendar first. Calendar gives us happiness almost right away and the ability to build the MoM and I think we can get it given the pretty slow wonder pace so far.

The main thing we're giving up here is meeting the other AI sooner, which I think is not as valuable as the happiness (and therefore larger cities sooner) and the longer Golden Ages.

Conclusion: Maths -> Calender

Dealing with AIs

I want to talk about war with Ramesses more!

1) I think you guys are being pretty optimistic about Ramesses fate. I know AIs suck generally, but it's looking like Brennus is going in for the kill.
2) There's way too much land down there for us to just allow Brennus to have, unless we want to have him as a long term (AKA never kill) ally.
3) The double holy city of Memphis is too good for us not to take.
4) The diplo for shared war is good.
5) We can unlock the Heroic Epic.
6) We can complete an objective.

The reasons I've heard not to, and my rebuttals:

1) We can bribe Brennus not to declare --> Way too expensive. He wants everything we have!
2) We want to trade with Ramesses / He'll build us wonders / He'll shrine the holy cities --> These arguments all rely on him being still alive, which I disagree with.
3) Brennus will then focus EP on us --> We're not going to be stealing stuff in the near future since I think Neil has shown it to be less efficient, so we don't need the EP advantage.

I don't think this will happen in this turnset, but, before I forget, we have to make sure NOT to get trade happy when we start meeting AIs. We want to keep the possibility of a UN victory open and I've had the "you've traded with our worst enemy" thing bite me in the butt too many times.

Accept pretty much all Brennus demands? Reject all Ramesses demands?

City Builds and Placements and Micro

Paris: We need some cottages for the citizens to work. Working a non-financial, non-Colossus coastal tile is very :(. I agree with temple -> harbor. Although note that the benefits of the harbor won't really kick in until Astro.

GP Farm: Agree with whip forge into National Epic. NOT the Parthenon. I'd prefer as few artist points as possible. We will, at some point, need some more happy. So a Buddhist temple might not be a terrible idea, but I think Forge and NE both take precedent.

Production: I say finish settler by WHIPPING THIS TURN for 2 pop and 26 :hammers: overflow into the Parthenon. After that maybe some galleys we can upgrade to galleons? Is this a good use of our gold?

Commerce: The market is fine, especially given all the binary we've got going one. And then the monastery, for the same reason.

Clams: I don't think we should whip the forge. I say let the city grow onto the cottage (and then hopefully another cottage, get some worker turns down there).

Barb City: Agree with whip forge into fishing boats. A harbor can come later.

East Fish: I disagree with this as Moai city. We've already invested in cottages. I vote that we let this city work 4 riverside cottages and the two hills and the fish and get some super trade routes.

Zhou: I prefer Moai here. This city is a more obvious candidate for production in my mind. It's got great specials that both come with hammers. And it's got a ton of coast! All coast except for one tile, compared to east city which has three ocean tiles.

Sugar Clams: This is a confusing name, since this city also has both iron and clams, :p. But I agree with granary -> forge. I think the library should come before the harbor, though, I think? This city will be able to build a pretty quick University and I like to put libraries there. Overall, I'm not sure that harbors > libraries, although am willing to be convinced otherwise. Speaking of which, is forge that early good? I kind of blindly do this in my offline late game cities. Anybody (revent, neil, cough cough) care to check?

Iron Clams: Granary first for sure. As for forge next, see above.

Iron Wheat: Granary. What are the long term plans for this city? I think its first improvement should be a farm 1SW of where the chariot is, followed by wheat farm, followed by iron mine. But after that, are we mass farming or cottaging all that green?

Workers: Trystero's current PPP looks good I think. Make sure we have workers ready to get to Iron wheat. We want that city getting good ASAP as I think it can be a real monster. All that riverside!

Also, I want some serious discussion about:
1) Settling the copper island city (internet, statue of liberty, great trading).
2) Settling the former Egypt.
3) Having settlers ready to get on galleons for the off chance of getting a foothold city on the other continent(s). This can make late game warfare SOO much easier I've learned. And I think (hope) we'll be getting to Astro early enough that this is a reasonable goal.
 
'No Parthenon' was just an assumption for calculating GP generation dates, I am pretty happy for us to build it. :)

I'm OK with Maths -> Calendar as well. Its a little more risky in terms of when we get Optics, but if we get a GS out of Paris, then it is streets ahead of Machinery first. Our core cities would benefit from the +2 happy.

Whip Settler in Production this turn into the Parthenon sounds like a great idea to get max overflow hammers from the IND trait, as long as we switch to a missionary after 1 turn and complete it in 3. Then Production can go back to Parthenon (the happy cap should work out that we can also 1 pop whip the missionary as well into Parthenon). We need the island to get Buddhism asap, to help get its infra up quicker, especially in the Maoi city.

@Ramesses,
Yes, I had avoided this one, as I really don't know what we should be doing.
We are not going to take Memphis before Brennus. With 2 religions, it will probably be his next target.
I DO support taking some Chariots and conquering his last city, most likely Elephantine, assuming Brennus conquers the rest that is. We do want Ramesses to survive but as you say, this might be a bit optimistic.
Ramesses' other cities don't interest me at all at the moment, they are to far away, I am more than happy for Brennus to take them. We will conquer most, if not all, of this continent surely. Brennus is nicely cottaing everything.

@ points for serious discussion
1) Yes, we want copper eventually, how about we take Brennus' copper? :) Not sure about the island, its miles away and would surely cost us too much in maintenance at the moment.
2) Egypt, again its miles away. We will get these cities later, I promise.
3) Footholds on the other continent, now that's crazy. We could become 'land targets' and the city would cost a fortune in maintenance.

We can currently only sustain 30% research, yes we will keep settling, but we certainly don't want to many more cities too fast.

@ Other points
Zhou vs East Fish for Maoi, yes Zhou would probably be better, but it will take longer to get going. Happy for Zhou to get it. First missionary to go to Zhou.

@ Paris has 2 cottages currently being built.


I don't like 'Sugar Clams' either, as it just doesn't sound right, no other reason. :p
 
Build prefs

I normally don't go for forges that early in the build order, but they are just too good here not to.
Extra +2 happy and we get +100% to build them are the main reasons.
The first 3-4 buildings at least in the new cities are going to be whipped, and every whip benefits from the +25% hammers as well if forge is first after granary. With this bonus, we essentially get the 4th building for free (ok, not quite, it depends on the hammer cost of each, but you know what I mean).

Zhou is probably the best example to use, as it is still building its first building (Granary), once we finish this, it will grow an extra pop every 2 turns.

Therefore after Granary, every 4 turns we can 2 pop whip a building. Forge, Lighthouse, Library , Harbor & Temple. That's 5 whips in 16 turns, so the extra happy from the forge first helps, and each whip is discounted due to the forge bonus hammers.


Harbor or Library?
Depends on the city.

One extreme is East Fish, which has 12 raw comerce in trade routes, so a Harbor adds 6 raw commerce. If we are running at sustainable tech rate of 30%, then a Library would add 1.35 bpt.

Other extreme is Paris (just pretend it didn't have a Lib already), which has 8 raw comerce in trade routes, so a Harbor adds 4 raw commerce. A library would add 5.20 bpt at sustainable tech rate.

So, if the city has a lot of worked tiles with commerce, like Paris or Commerce, then the Lib comes out just in front of the Harbor, otherwise Harbor kills it. Lib opens scientist slots obviously, but if we are doing a quick whip of the cities, we aren't working specialists anyway.


So, under normal circumstances, best build order is Granary->Forge->Lighthouse->Harbor->Library->Temple, mostly whipped if the city has the food to grow back fast enough.
 
@ points for serious discussion
1) Yes, we want copper eventually, how about we take Brennus' copper? :) Not sure about the island, its miles away and would surely cost us too much in maintenance at the moment.
2) Egypt, again its miles away. We will get these cities later, I promise.
3) Footholds on the other continent, now that's crazy. We could become 'land targets' and the city would cost a fortune in maintenance.

Agree with all points. Let's consider the case closed.

I don't like 'Sugar Clams' either, as it just doesn't sound right, no other reason. :p

"Yes, I'll have the sugar clam linguine and the strawberries in garlic butter". :vomit:
 
Build prefs

I normally don't go for forges that early in the build order, but they are just too good here not to.
Extra +2 happy and we get +100% to build them are the main reasons.
The first 3-4 buildings at least in the new cities are going to be whipped, and every whip benefits from the +25% hammers as well if forge is first. With this bonus, we essentially get the 4th building for free (ok, not quite, it depends on the hammer cost of each, but you know what I mean).

Zhou is probably the best example to use, as it is still building its first building (Granary), once we finish this, it will grow an extra pop every 2 turns.

Therefore after Granary, every 4 turns we can 2 pop whip a building. Forge, Lighthouse, Library , Harbor & Temple. That's 5 whips in 16 turns, so the extra happy from the forge first helps, and each whip is discounted due to the forge bonus hammers.


Harbor or Library?
Depends on the city.

One extreme is East Fish, which has 12 raw comerce in trade routes, so a Harbor adds 6 raw commerce. If we are running at sustainable tech rate of 30%, then a Library would add 1.35 bpt.

Other extreme is Paris (just pretend it didn't have a Lib already), which has 8 raw comerce in trade routes, so a Harbor adds 4 raw commerce. A library would add 5.20 bpt at sustainable tech rate.

So, if the city has a lot of worked tiles with commerce, like Paris or Commerce, then the Lib comes out just in front of the Harbor, otherwise Harbor kills it. Lib opens scientist slots obviously, but if we are doing a quick whip of the cities, we aren't working specialists anyway.


So, under normal circumstances, best build order is Granary->Forge->Lighthouse->Harbor->Library->Temple, mostly whipped if the city has the food to grow back fast enough.

Excellent analysis! I forgot about the half-priced forges, :blush:. I think that definitely makes the case for building them early on.
 
This is great! Keep it up! I will just chime in briefly. neilmeister has done a good job explaining why I thought we should prioritize forges, but my reasoning was:

1. We are IND so they are cheap.
2. We get +2 happy from building them (granted not a huge consideration when cities aren't at the happy cap).
3. Most importantly (in my view), they speed up all subsequent builds.

But I am post build orders precisely so you guys can tear my reasoning apart. So go ahead. :)

edit: x-post with Benginal
 
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